| Symbol | Initial Price | Current Price | Avg of Gain | Avg of IWV Gain |
| CCME | $10.31 | $10.70 | 6.2% | 0.0% |
| CEL | $25.75 | $26.85 | 4.3% | 3.7% |
| CEU | $3.91 | $3.87 | -1.1% | 1.3% |
| CF | $89.45 | $80.13 | -10.4% | 0.7% |
| CHKE | $18.09 | $19.15 | 7.2% | 2.4% |
| CMFO | $4.66 | $4.58 | -1.4% | 3.9% |
| CSKI | $9.87 | $10.70 | 8.4% | 2.5% |
| FLL | $3.15 | $3.15 | 0.0% | -0.7% |
| IPXL | $19.23 | $16.08 | -16.4% | 2.3% |
| KSW | $3.48 | $2.79 | -16.9% | 2.5% |
| NEWN | $7.13 | $6.10 | -12.4% | -3.5% |
| PM | $44.35 | $50.66 | 15.6% | 1.0% |
| PRSC | $13.18 | $14.11 | 7.1% | 1.1% |
| RAI | $53.55 | $57.08 | 10.0% | -3.3% |
| TTT | $9.60 | $11.78 | 23.4% | 10.9% |
| UNTD | $5.78 | $6.30 | 9.4% | 3.9% |
| UTA | $6.53 | $6.30 | 0.1% | 3.1% |
| VALU | $14.70 | $15.07 | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| VALV | $6.46 | $7.50 | 16.1% | 0.5% |
| Grand Total | $14.97 | $15.34 | 2.4% | 2.2% |
Here is my performance year by year verses Russell 3000. Note that some of the earlier years, the Russell 3000 doesn't match the annual gains as the number reflects my timing of putting money into MFI.
| MFI Annual Performance | ||
| ITD | Annual | |
| 2006 | 10.74% | 10.74% |
| 2007 | -6.57% | -15.63% |
| 2008 | -41.60% | -37.50% |
| 2009 | 0.71% | 72.47% |
| 2010 | -7.20% | -7.86% |
| IWV Annual Performance | ||
| ITD | Annual | |
| 2006 | 11.23% | 11.23% |
| 2007 | 4.65% | -5.91% |
| 2008 | -30.54% | -33.63% |
| 2009 | -13.95% | 23.87% |
| 2010 | -14.20% | -0.29% |
Obviously the -7.86% this year is distressing.
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3 comments:
If you believe Hussman is right? Why are you increasing your equity exposure right now?
I guess I am less sure that Hussmann is right. I have kept a large cash chunk (even beyond MFI) and I have actually doubled my $ in the Hussmann fund. But there are other people that are not as bearish (Jubak for example) and I have paid them some heed. The one item I do not ever hear Hussmann address when he talks about how over-valued the market is is the large amount of cash on corporate balance sheets. To me that makes the market cheaper.
By what measure is the market cheap though? The reason I am very wary of the next 6-18 months is the possibility of another recession. I understand that forward PE ratios for the market are at "reasonable" levels, but (1) who's to say that the E in that earnings is really accurate? In the event of another recession, market earnings could be much lower; and (2) given that the market has had a number of times where the PE ratio dropped to 6 or 8 during secular bear or range bound markets, why can't that happen again here? I would not be surprised if the next couple of years beat the hell out of the markets to the extent that people come close to giving up on equities the same way they did back in 1980-81 and other times.
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