I have had a funny hot streak that has made me some real money. Three of my recent stock transactions in the past 3 months were then later the feature article in Barron's.
The first was LINE, which I had discussed in my blog as being hedged for the next few years in oil and gas and paid a great dividend (Investors Dig Linn Energy's Cautious Style). I had bought LINE because Seth Klarman had been buying at a higher price than the $11.50 I got.
The second was TBT, which is an ultra short fund on Treasuries. I had never bought a short fund before, but the movement of cash into treasuries seemed irrational to me. Barron's agreed the following weekend (This Week's 'Barron's' Roundup). I had bought the etf at $35.50 and sold over $45 in a few short weeks.
The third was this weekend with HIG. I mentioned in my last blog that I had bought them at $13.50. We'll see where they go post the article (The Hartford: Hedged Against Disaster). I know I will not be in any rush to sell them... I mentioned in my blog I'll be looking for a 100% gain, so at least a $25 target price.
These picks are helping me go against the tide in the past 2+ months, as I have held up pretty well. Stay tuned, it may be 5 years before I get another Barron's feature a week or two early. We'll see. I will mention my other major buy last week, PTP - another insurer. I am still using MFI, but I went back and looked at all my insurance picks since 2002 and I have an annualized IRR of 31%. It is clear to me that stock picking in an industry I work in is easier. PTP is selling about 20% under book value. They have a good cash flow and have publicly stated that they are going to aggressively use the cash to buy back their stock, which they believe (as do I) is under-valued. So just by standing still, their EPS should be increasing, which sounds good to me. They're expected to earn over $5 a share in 2009 and have a share price under $28.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
Hanging Tough
My mechanical portfolio which simply takes new stocks (in the past year) to the top 25 screen is still beating the MD approach. We're up 5.4% over the S&P 500 while SDA is up about 2.7%. Haven't had any new names for a few weeks. Here is how we stand:
My actual $ portfolio is faring "okay". We have gained a lot of ground on breakeven and the benchmarks since November, but let us just say that we're not exactly popping the champagne corks yet.
My big winners of late have been my "yield" plays in LINE, OKS and NRGY. They are all up 30 to 50% and I am holding and starting to enjoy the life of dividends... if only they were enough for me to retire!
My most recent purchase was HIG at $13.50. It promptly dropped $2, but is now about $14.50. They are a bit speculative, but I think they are a well-run company and will get back to their glory days and move up nicely (100$?) by the end of 2009.
Good luck! Should be a fun Super Bowl.
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 2.85 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.72 | -32.6% | -37.5% | 4.9% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 5.22 | - | 136.37 | 2.00 | 2.8% | -36.5% | 39.3% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 2.06 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -79.4% | -36.0% | -43.4% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.02 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -76.2% | -36.0% | -40.3% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.74 | - | 135.62 | 2.00 | -45.9% | -36.2% | -9.7% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.80 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -61.4% | -34.1% | -27.2% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 1.00 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -73.0% | -34.1% | -38.8% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.50 | 0.09 | 131.36 | 2.00 | -31.5% | -34.1% | 2.6% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 14.73 | 0.12 | 131.36 | 2.08 | -23.7% | -34.1% | 10.4% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 2.01 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -26.6% | -34.4% | 7.8% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 5.72 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -36.3% | -34.4% | -1.9% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 8.57 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -50.8% | -34.4% | -16.4% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 11.82 | 0.75 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -35.8% | -36.7% | 0.9% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 14.15 | 0.54 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -1.7% | -36.7% | 35.1% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 4.42 | - | 136.89 | 2.08 | -16.3% | -36.7% | 20.4% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 22.42 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | -45.4% | -35.1% | -10.4% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 7.98 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | 23.3% | -35.1% | 58.4% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 2.60 | - | 138.48 | 2.08 | -48.3% | -37.5% | -10.8% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 2.14 | - | 139.60 | 2.08 | -65.8% | -38.0% | -27.9% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 16.98 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 2.08 | -47.8% | -37.6% | -10.2% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 7.04 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -1.0% | -37.6% | 36.7% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 32.28 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -25.7% | -37.6% | 11.9% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 7.38 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -19.9% | -37.1% | 17.2% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 3.28 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -24.9% | -37.1% | 12.1% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 16.17 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 2.08 | -37.0% | -38.3% | 1.3% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 4.54 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | -1.7% | -32.0% | 30.2% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 12.88 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 16.5% | -32.0% | 48.4% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 39.98 | 0.80 | 126.31 | 1.41 | 27.4% | -32.0% | 59.4% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 6.59 | - | 125.48 | 1.41 | 36.2% | -31.5% | 67.7% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 39.18 | - | 126.16 | 1.41 | -35.3% | -31.9% | -3.4% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 8.44 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -23.3% | -33.6% | 10.3% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 5.58 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -55.0% | -33.6% | -21.5% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 46.31 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -65.6% | -33.6% | -32.0% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 11.48 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -27.9% | -33.6% | 5.6% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.42 | - | 124.42 | 1.41 | -39.1% | -30.9% | -8.2% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 10.66 | - | 126.09 | 1.41 | -48.5% | -31.8% | -16.6% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 7.39 | - | 124.12 | 1.41 | -55.4% | -30.8% | -24.6% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 5.05 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -39.1% | -29.5% | -9.6% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 3.50 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -19.4% | -29.5% | 10.1% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 19.48 | 0.10 | 120.85 | 0.72 | -31.1% | -29.5% | -1.6% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 10.12 | 9.09 | 0.55 | 88.50 | 0.72 | -4.7% | -3.7% | -1.1% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 12.34 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | -15.4% | -3.7% | -11.7% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 2.90 | 0.03 | 93.21 | 0.72 | -20.3% | -8.5% | -11.8% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 21.38 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | 20.3% | -12.0% | 32.3% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 4.12 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -44.3% | -12.0% | -32.4% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 3.24 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -23.6% | -12.0% | -11.6% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 20.53 | 0.20 | 93.86 | 0.72 | 2.8% | -9.2% | 12.0% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 9.33 | 0.02 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -31.3% | -9.2% | -22.1% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 3.09 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 29.3% | 7.2% | 22.1% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 15.19 | 0.05 | 79.52 | 0.72 | 45.8% | 7.2% | 38.6% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.20 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 27.7% | 7.2% | 20.5% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 1.00 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | -17.4% | 7.2% | -24.6% |
| Vclk | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 6.21 | - | 90.09 | 0.72 | 0.6% | -5.4% | 6.0% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 5.37 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 22.9% | -3.0% | 25.9% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 8.70 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 50.0% | -3.0% | 53.0% |
| ESIC | 12/14/08 | 1.13 | 2.03 | - | 88.99 | 0.72 | 79.6% | -4.2% | 83.8% |
| MSO | 12/29/08 | 2.80 | 2.43 | - | 87.16 | - | -13.2% | -3.0% | -10.2% |
| TRMS | 12/29/08 | 1.03 | 1.01 | - | 87.16 | - | -1.9% | -3.0% | 1.1% |
| WFR | 12/29/08 | 13.43 | 14.10 | - | 87.16 | - | 5.0% | -3.0% | 8.0% |
| AHCI | 1/5/09 | 1.15 | 1.10 | - | 92.96 | - | -4.3% | -9.1% | 4.7% |
| CKSW | 1/5/09 | 1.99 | 2.11 | - | 92.96 | - | 6.0% | -9.1% | 15.1% |
| Totals | -18.5% | -24.0% | 5.5% | ||||||
| 60.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | |||||||||
| S&P C | 84.53 | ||||||||
My actual $ portfolio is faring "okay". We have gained a lot of ground on breakeven and the benchmarks since November, but let us just say that we're not exactly popping the champagne corks yet.
My big winners of late have been my "yield" plays in LINE, OKS and NRGY. They are all up 30 to 50% and I am holding and starting to enjoy the life of dividends... if only they were enough for me to retire!
My most recent purchase was HIG at $13.50. It promptly dropped $2, but is now about $14.50. They are a bit speculative, but I think they are a well-run company and will get back to their glory days and move up nicely (100$?) by the end of 2009.
Good luck! Should be a fun Super Bowl.
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Tra-la-la
Been a tough week, it felt like all my stocks were down 15% on Monday. However a couple interesting things happened today. The first is extremely interesting, and give me hope.
Terra Industries (TRA) received an unsolicited bid from CF industries today (CF Industries makes $2.1B bid for Terra Industries). Pulling out my slide ruler, it seems that 2.1b would be 20.62 per share. Now to be honest, I fully expect TRA to tell them to pound sand. I certainly would not accept such a paltry premium. But it is a start and makes you wonder if we'll start seeing more M&A down the road.
CHCG announced theor preliminary earnings this morning (China 3C Group Announces Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Financial Results). I thought they were terrific. They are growing revenue at about 15% and they made 44 cents for 2008. This is a stock with a solid balance sheet trading at about 90 cents, making 44 cents and growing! All I can figure is the market thinks they are cooking the books.
Well, it is late. More on another day.
Terra Industries (TRA) received an unsolicited bid from CF industries today (CF Industries makes $2.1B bid for Terra Industries). Pulling out my slide ruler, it seems that 2.1b would be 20.62 per share. Now to be honest, I fully expect TRA to tell them to pound sand. I certainly would not accept such a paltry premium. But it is a start and makes you wonder if we'll start seeing more M&A down the road.
CHCG announced theor preliminary earnings this morning (China 3C Group Announces Preliminary Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Financial Results). I thought they were terrific. They are growing revenue at about 15% and they made 44 cents for 2008. This is a stock with a solid balance sheet trading at about 90 cents, making 44 cents and growing! All I can figure is the market thinks they are cooking the books.
Well, it is late. More on another day.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Hang On Tight!
I just finished reading Barron's "Hang On Tight", which was their semi-annual roundtable of investment gurus. It was pretty sobering reading. These guys essentially think we're going to "hell in a hand-basket". We're in a classic bear market rally and the market will drop to single digit P/Es. They say the current estimate for S&P in 2009 is $60 (which could be high). The S&P is at 890 right now. Single digit would be under 600, another 30%+ drop from where we stand. The single digit P/E is where we went in past recessions in 1982 and 1974.
Of course they also comment on how the market is treating different stocks differently. Some (like Amazon) are still at a very high P/E, while others are extremely cheap.
One guy said to buy gold... gold you can hold as well as gold stocks as gold could eventually go to $2,000 an ounce. I can't say that I disagree. I have been kicking around the idea a lot myself as well as I think inflation may go through the roof down the road.
I am also watching a piece on the Madoff scandal. Just amazing that it happened. I don't know how some big (and supposedly sophisticated) investors gave him 100s of millions without do proper due diligence. I understand from what I have seen that there were plenty of red flags.
Not sure what to do with my money. It is tempting to take some off the table, I have had a good run lately... though frankly still have a lot of ground to make up... but it is of course unrealistic to expect to make it up in a year. I have been moving towards more conservative stuff... you know, preferred stocks, bonds and gold. I'll still keep some in MFI, but may pull back a little.
Oh well, probably time to hit the hay. Very busy, will be moving next week and this is my busiest time at work... likely I will not be posting for a couple weeks.
Of course they also comment on how the market is treating different stocks differently. Some (like Amazon) are still at a very high P/E, while others are extremely cheap.
One guy said to buy gold... gold you can hold as well as gold stocks as gold could eventually go to $2,000 an ounce. I can't say that I disagree. I have been kicking around the idea a lot myself as well as I think inflation may go through the roof down the road.
I am also watching a piece on the Madoff scandal. Just amazing that it happened. I don't know how some big (and supposedly sophisticated) investors gave him 100s of millions without do proper due diligence. I understand from what I have seen that there were plenty of red flags.
Not sure what to do with my money. It is tempting to take some off the table, I have had a good run lately... though frankly still have a lot of ground to make up... but it is of course unrealistic to expect to make it up in a year. I have been moving towards more conservative stuff... you know, preferred stocks, bonds and gold. I'll still keep some in MFI, but may pull back a little.
Oh well, probably time to hit the hay. Very busy, will be moving next week and this is my busiest time at work... likely I will not be posting for a couple weeks.
Friday, January 09, 2009
Another Week
Don't look now, but I am now within 6% of the benchmark as my MFI portfolio has been making a torrid comeback. Still well below breakeven, but I am starting to feel mildly hopeful... a sure sign the floor will fall out tomorrow.
My mechanical portfolio is also doing "well"... everything is relative. It is a bit more than 8% better than the S&P benchmark while SDA's magic diligence portfolio is only 5.1% ahead... aha! It is really a function of smaller cap stocks doing better of late. Here is my portfolio.
Then my Chinese portfolio is actually in the green, something I haven't seen much of lately. Get ready for this... it is up 4% while the Russell 3000 is down almost 30%! Sadly, some of the really outperfoming Chinese stocks I do not own in real life. But I think it illustrates that some of these stocks can really pop.
Stocks in the news:
MTW announced they will "only" make $1.35 to $1.60 in 2009. Granted that is way down from the $3.20 in 2008... but the stock price is down from $45 to $8. Not sure if the $1.35 to $1.60 considers an "Obama dividend".
KBR announced they would meet expectations in 2009 (
). That was pretty good news and the stock went up this week. Of course they'll make $1.75 in 2009 and are a $17 stock. Hmmm.
My mechanical portfolio is also doing "well"... everything is relative. It is a bit more than 8% better than the S&P benchmark while SDA's magic diligence portfolio is only 5.1% ahead... aha! It is really a function of smaller cap stocks doing better of late. Here is my portfolio.
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 4.02 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.72 | -8.0% | -34.2% | 26.2% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 5.54 | - | 136.37 | 2.00 | 9.1% | -33.2% | 42.3% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 3.00 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -69.9% | -32.6% | -37.3% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.18 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -72.5% | -32.6% | -39.9% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.60 | - | 135.62 | 2.00 | -48.6% | -32.8% | -15.8% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.90 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -56.7% | -30.7% | -26.1% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 1.05 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -71.6% | -30.7% | -41.0% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.67 | 0.09 | 131.36 | 2.00 | -29.0% | -30.7% | 1.7% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 13.81 | 0.12 | 131.36 | 2.08 | -28.4% | -30.6% | 2.2% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 1.79 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -34.7% | -31.0% | -3.7% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 5.40 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -39.9% | -31.0% | -8.9% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 10.42 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -40.2% | -31.0% | -9.2% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 14.07 | 0.75 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -24.3% | -33.4% | 9.1% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 14.65 | 0.54 | 136.89 | 2.08 | 1.7% | -33.4% | 35.1% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 4.20 | - | 136.89 | 2.08 | -20.5% | -33.4% | 12.9% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 23.50 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | -42.8% | -31.7% | -11.1% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 8.99 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | 38.9% | -31.7% | 70.6% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 2.63 | - | 138.48 | 2.08 | -47.7% | -34.2% | -13.5% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 2.88 | - | 139.60 | 2.08 | -54.0% | -34.7% | -19.3% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 18.19 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 2.08 | -44.3% | -34.4% | -9.9% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 7.30 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | 2.7% | -34.4% | 37.0% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 34.79 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -19.9% | -34.4% | 14.4% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 7.11 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -22.8% | -33.8% | 11.0% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 3.50 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -19.9% | -33.8% | 13.9% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 17.38 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 2.08 | -32.6% | -35.0% | 2.5% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 4.35 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | -5.8% | -28.4% | 22.5% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 15.58 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 40.9% | -28.4% | 69.2% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 36.61 | 0.80 | 126.31 | 1.41 | 16.9% | -28.4% | 45.3% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 7.03 | - | 125.48 | 1.41 | 45.2% | -27.9% | 73.1% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 37.96 | - | 126.16 | 1.41 | -37.3% | -28.3% | -9.1% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 7.93 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -27.9% | -30.0% | 2.1% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 6.32 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -49.1% | -30.0% | -19.0% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 53.91 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -60.0% | -30.0% | -29.9% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 10.30 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -35.3% | -30.0% | -5.3% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.48 | - | 124.42 | 1.41 | -30.4% | -27.3% | -3.2% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 12.23 | - | 126.09 | 1.41 | -40.9% | -28.2% | -12.6% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 7.86 | - | 124.12 | 1.41 | -52.6% | -27.1% | -25.5% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 4.99 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -39.8% | -25.7% | -14.1% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 3.32 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -23.5% | -25.7% | 2.2% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 18.06 | 0.10 | 120.85 | 0.72 | -36.1% | -25.7% | -10.4% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 10.12 | 11.79 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | 16.5% | 1.5% | 15.0% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 12.95 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | -11.2% | 1.5% | -12.7% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 3.06 | 0.03 | 93.21 | 0.72 | -15.9% | -3.6% | -12.3% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 20.02 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | 12.7% | -7.3% | 19.9% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 5.04 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -31.9% | -7.3% | -24.6% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 4.00 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -5.7% | -7.3% | 1.6% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 22.00 | 0.20 | 93.86 | 0.72 | 10.1% | -4.3% | 14.4% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 11.82 | 0.02 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -12.9% | -4.3% | -8.6% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 4.08 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 70.7% | 12.9% | 57.8% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 17.34 | 0.05 | 79.52 | 0.72 | 66.4% | 12.9% | 53.5% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.15 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 22.3% | 12.9% | 9.4% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 1.57 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 29.8% | 12.9% | 16.8% |
| Vclk | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 6.72 | - | 90.09 | 0.72 | 8.9% | -0.3% | 9.2% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 5.32 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 21.7% | 2.1% | 19.6% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 8.83 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 52.2% | 2.1% | 50.1% |
| ESIC | 12/14/08 | 1.13 | 2.03 | - | 88.99 | 0.72 | 79.6% | 0.9% | 78.7% |
| MSO | 12/29/08 | 2.80 | 3.51 | - | 87.16 | - | 25.4% | 2.2% | 23.1% |
| TRMS | 12/29/08 | 1.03 | 1.31 | - | 87.16 | - | 27.2% | 2.2% | 25.0% |
| WFR | 12/29/08 | 13.43 | 16.47 | - | 87.16 | - | 22.6% | 2.2% | 20.4% |
| AHCI | 1/5/09 | 1.15 | 1.15 | - | 92.96 | - | 0.0% | -4.2% | 4.2% |
| CKSW | 1/5/09 | 1.99 | 2.08 | - | 92.96 | - | 4.5% | -4.2% | 8.7% |
| Totals | -11.8% | -19.9% | 8.2% | ||||||
| 64.3% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | |||||||||
Then my Chinese portfolio is actually in the green, something I haven't seen much of lately. Get ready for this... it is up 4% while the Russell 3000 is down almost 30%! Sadly, some of the really outperfoming Chinese stocks I do not own in real life. But I think it illustrates that some of these stocks can really pop.
Stocks in the news:
MTW announced they will "only" make $1.35 to $1.60 in 2009. Granted that is way down from the $3.20 in 2008... but the stock price is down from $45 to $8. Not sure if the $1.35 to $1.60 considers an "Obama dividend".
KBR announced they would meet expectations in 2009 (
| KBR says earnings should meet analyst outlook |
Monday, January 05, 2009
Another Big Day
wow, even on a down day, I was up another 3.5%. That makes me up 56.6% from my low while the Russell 3000 is up 24.5%. Still some ground to make up, but the IWV is starting to look over their shoulder. Some big big gainers including
- CHCG +11.4%
- CSKI +9.8%
- TC +9.0%
- FTO +7.7%
- HBMFF +6.2%
| CHCG.OB | Down 36.43% |
| QXM | Down 21.20% |
| Down 29.37% | |
| CAST | Down 7.80% |
| KHD | Down 39.29% |
| ADY | Up 40.88% |
| WH | Down 40.73% |
| AOB | Up 2.07% |
| TBV | Up 93.22% |
| CSKI | Up 62.48% |
| STP | Down 68.87% |
| XIN | Up 42.99% |
| PSOF | Up 4.01% |
| CDS | Up 31.58% |
| CMED | Down 1.83% |
| IWV | Down 26.97% |
| Total | Up 2.10% |
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Moving Up
Nice to turn the calendar to 2009. We'll see if it is any better. I do know we've had a furious rally of late, not sure that it is the real McCoy though.
The amazing thing is that my MFI portfolio is up 51% since the all-time low on November 20th. Here are some individual stocks
LCAV +60%
FTO +74%
TRID +51%
TRA +58%
BR +46%
TC +74%
QXM +46%
EGY +92%
BOLT +42%
ODP +179%
CSKI +103%
KBR +61%
PCR +92$
FSUMF +95%
KHD +87%
MTW +92%
It has been a wild run. Of course it was off incredible lows and I am still under water, but the trend is my friend of late.
In my mechanical contest, I'll be adding two new stocks this weekend, and these stocks have also been up over 50% since the end of November.
AHCI and CKSW.
AHCI provides home healthcare-that seems semi recession proof. They have a market cap of $52m and they have $26m of excess cash. They have had a steady income stream. I don't know, if you don't mind microcaps, this one might be worth considering at $1.15. Also, they are based in the U.K. Not sure if that is a plus or minus.
CKSW is an Israeli software company. Kind of like AHCI, they have a market cap a bit over 50m and about 24m of excess cash. They have a high ROIC as software companies are not usually capital intensive. They made a ton of money in the 3rd quarter. I am often suspicious of companies that don't have smooth earnings as it could be a one-time event. Reading their report, they are pretty bullish about growth opportunities. It does look like they're dependent on SAP. All-in-all they look like an interesting play as well.
We'll add these two new promising microcaps to my mechanical portfolio. I might consider one for real life... AHCI seems quite compelling.
Have fun everyone!
The amazing thing is that my MFI portfolio is up 51% since the all-time low on November 20th. Here are some individual stocks
LCAV +60%
FTO +74%
TRID +51%
TRA +58%
BR +46%
TC +74%
QXM +46%
EGY +92%
BOLT +42%
ODP +179%
CSKI +103%
KBR +61%
PCR +92$
FSUMF +95%
KHD +87%
MTW +92%
It has been a wild run. Of course it was off incredible lows and I am still under water, but the trend is my friend of late.
In my mechanical contest, I'll be adding two new stocks this weekend, and these stocks have also been up over 50% since the end of November.
AHCI and CKSW.
AHCI provides home healthcare-that seems semi recession proof. They have a market cap of $52m and they have $26m of excess cash. They have had a steady income stream. I don't know, if you don't mind microcaps, this one might be worth considering at $1.15. Also, they are based in the U.K. Not sure if that is a plus or minus.
CKSW is an Israeli software company. Kind of like AHCI, they have a market cap a bit over 50m and about 24m of excess cash. They have a high ROIC as software companies are not usually capital intensive. They made a ton of money in the 3rd quarter. I am often suspicious of companies that don't have smooth earnings as it could be a one-time event. Reading their report, they are pretty bullish about growth opportunities. It does look like they're dependent on SAP. All-in-all they look like an interesting play as well.
We'll add these two new promising microcaps to my mechanical portfolio. I might consider one for real life... AHCI seems quite compelling.
Have fun everyone!
Update of Model Portfolio vs Magic Diligence - Jan 3rd
My mechanical portfolio has pulled ahead of the Magic Diligence portfolio. I am up 5.7% over the SPY and MD is around 4%. As a reminder, my portfolio simply adds new stocks to the top 25 list every weekend. They have really been on fire lately.
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 4.32 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.72 | -1.7% | -31.5% | 29.8% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 6.06 | - | 136.37 | 2.00 | 19.3% | -30.4% | 49.7% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 2.44 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -75.6% | -29.7% | -45.8% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.22 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -71.6% | -29.7% | -41.8% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.63 | - | 135.62 | 2.00 | -48.0% | -30.0% | -18.0% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.86 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -58.7% | -27.7% | -30.9% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 0.97 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -73.8% | -27.7% | -46.1% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.50 | 0.09 | 131.36 | 2.00 | -31.5% | -27.7% | -3.8% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 14.21 | 0.12 | 131.36 | 2.08 | -26.3% | -27.7% | 1.3% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 1.78 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -35.0% | -28.0% | -7.0% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 4.87 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -45.8% | -28.0% | -17.7% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 10.11 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -42.0% | -28.0% | -13.9% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 14.96 | 0.75 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -19.8% | -30.6% | 10.8% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 14.73 | 0.54 | 136.89 | 2.08 | 2.2% | -30.6% | 32.8% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 4.77 | - | 136.89 | 2.08 | -9.7% | -30.6% | 20.9% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 22.04 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | -46.3% | -28.7% | -17.6% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 9.73 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | 50.4% | -28.7% | 79.1% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 2.80 | - | 138.48 | 2.08 | -44.3% | -31.4% | -13.0% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 2.65 | - | 139.60 | 2.08 | -57.7% | -31.9% | -25.7% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 17.64 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 2.08 | -45.9% | -31.6% | -14.3% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 7.71 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | 8.4% | -31.6% | 40.0% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 37.16 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -14.5% | -31.6% | 17.1% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 6.88 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -25.3% | -31.0% | 5.7% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 3.12 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -28.6% | -31.0% | 2.3% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 17.45 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 2.08 | -32.3% | -32.3% | 0.0% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 4.94 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 6.9% | -25.3% | 32.2% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 15.90 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 43.8% | -25.3% | 69.0% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 35.15 | 0.80 | 126.31 | 1.41 | 12.3% | -25.3% | 37.6% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 9.24 | - | 125.48 | 1.41 | 90.9% | -24.8% | 115.7% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 37.28 | - | 126.16 | 1.41 | -38.4% | -25.2% | -13.2% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 8.71 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -20.8% | -27.1% | 6.2% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 6.07 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -51.1% | -27.1% | -24.0% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 53.63 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -60.2% | -27.1% | -33.1% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 10.10 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -36.6% | -27.1% | -9.5% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.37 | - | 124.42 | 1.41 | -46.4% | -24.2% | -22.2% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 12.28 | - | 126.09 | 1.41 | -40.6% | -25.2% | -15.5% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 7.95 | - | 124.12 | 1.41 | -52.0% | -24.0% | -28.1% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 6.09 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -26.5% | -22.5% | -4.1% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 3.20 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -26.3% | -22.5% | -3.8% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 17.78 | 0.10 | 120.85 | 0.72 | -37.1% | -22.5% | -14.6% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 10.12 | 9.82 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | -3.0% | 5.9% | -8.8% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 15.14 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | 3.8% | 5.9% | -2.0% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 3.33 | 0.03 | 93.21 | 0.72 | -8.6% | 0.5% | -9.1% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 23.17 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | 30.4% | -3.3% | 33.6% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 5.49 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -25.8% | -3.3% | -22.6% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 4.24 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | 0.0% | -3.3% | 3.3% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 21.75 | 0.20 | 93.86 | 0.72 | 8.8% | -0.2% | 9.0% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 12.75 | 0.02 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -6.1% | -0.2% | -5.9% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 4.47 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 87.0% | 17.8% | 69.2% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 15.84 | 0.05 | 79.52 | 0.72 | 52.1% | 17.8% | 34.3% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.24 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 31.9% | 17.8% | 14.1% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 1.56 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 28.9% | 17.8% | 11.1% |
| Vclk | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 7.13 | - | 90.09 | 0.72 | 15.6% | 4.0% | 11.6% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 5.33 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 22.0% | 6.5% | 15.4% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 9.02 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 55.5% | 6.5% | 49.0% |
| ESIC | 12/14/08 | 1.13 | 1.40 | - | 88.99 | 0.72 | 23.9% | 5.3% | 18.6% |
| MSO | 12/29/08 | 2.80 | 2.99 | - | 87.16 | - | 6.8% | 6.7% | 0.1% |
| TRMS | 12/29/08 | 1.03 | 1.31 | - | 87.16 | - | 27.2% | 6.7% | 20.5% |
| WFR | 12/29/08 | 13.43 | 15.66 | - | 87.16 | - | 16.6% | 6.7% | 10.0% |
| Totals | -11.3% | -17.1% | 5.7% | ||||||
| 55.6% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | |||||||||
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