Friday, October 03, 2008

Yikes

it is incredibly disheartening to watch a portfolio sink day in and day out. Down another 4% today. It doesn't feel like it matters anymore, just like in 2000-01. De ja vu. What makes it worse though (besides the fact that I have more money in the market) is that I feel the stock I own are so doggone cheap (got that phrase from Gov Palin). I feel like even if all my stocks doubled, that I would not be back to break-even. I think my August 27th tranche of 5 stocks is down over 30%.

But I will stay the course. i don't really have any better ideas. I don't need the money right now and I do think that things will e v e n t u a l l y get better. I will try to continue the blog, though it is discouraging.

It is shocking to me how fast the contagion can spread, Boom! Lehman is gone. Bap!, Merrill Lynch. Bam! AIG. Now HIG is down 50% this week. Is nothing sacred? Hartford had over $1.3b in assets tied in with AIG, WaMu, Fannie/Freddie, Lehman, WB etc. If Hartford goes under, then someone who had assets in HIG may be on the brink. What will stop it? Will we have just 5 or 6 financial/insurance firms when the smoke clears?

And don't get me started on Hedge Funds. We're about to see a massive collapse of them as investors take their money out to put under their mattresses. And you thought GS and LEH were leveraged. My wife, who could care less about Finance, is watching financial news and wants to sell everything. Maybe she is right.

I do think that we need to get past the Bush fiasco. It seems clear to me that Obama will win. I know this, because I am supporting him, even though he will be terrible for me tax wise and possibly job-wise. But even though the market thinks Dems are "bad", the fact is that markets over the long haul are pretty indifferent to the party in power.

If we do start heading towards a severe recession, this may be a golden opportunity for public works. The Govt is the one entity that can borrow money (and quite cheaply). Seems like a great opportunity, when coupled with unemployment, to start fixing all the bridges, roads and infrastructure in the USA. If we improve our infrastructure, that should improve productivity and perhaps we can get out of the hole.

Ok, I have rambled long enough and little about MFI. Good night, I need to finish my bottle of Southern Comfort.

4 comments:

Unknown said...

Marsh,

Here's one thing about Obama and taxes that has gotten very little press. Ironically, if Obama wins, capital gains and dividend taxes will most likely be lower than if McCain wins. Here's why: if McCain wins, Congress will not go along with any tax plan he proposes and the Bush tax cuts will simply be allowed to expire.

If Obama wins, he will increase dividend and cap gains taxes, but not as high as they were prior to the Bush cuts and Congress will go along with whatever he proposes. So oddly enough, cap gains and dividend taxes will most likely be lower under Obama.

Marsh_Gerda said...

I have enough capital losses to avoid C-G-T for m-a-n-y years

Unknown said...

That is laugh out loud funny ... and cry out loud sad at the same time. You're right ... cap gain tax rates won't matter to much to anyone for a while.

Homer315 said...

Mmmmmm, the good old days of only losing 4% in a day.

(warm feelings of nostalgia)