Monday, November 19, 2007

The Beat Goes On

Wow anoth tough day/week/month year in the market. I think it is safe to say that my MFI portfolio is at an all-time low. It isn't pretty. Also, well below the Russell 3000 benchmark... over 11% at this time. Brutal.

It isn't just me. The entire universe of MFI has the Beat Going On. In the stock market contest I started on July 1st, the average portfolio is down 16%. The Viper Benchmark is down 3%. My monthly tracking portfolios I started in January 2006 (so about 10 are closed and not bleeding any more) are trailing the benchmark about 4% in aggregate.

I hope no one has been trying the Leaps strategy, it would have been quite painful thus far. I started two hypothetical Leap portfolios, one in May and one in October. The May one is down 41% and the October one is down 27%. Ouch.

What does all this mean? Some people hypothosize that a down stretch for MFI will make it more likely to work in the future as less people will use it. Perhaps that is possible, though I am struggling to find much joy. If that is true and my portfolio begins to rocket upwards, I suppose I'll have to stop this blog so the good news doesn't leak out.

IVAC will be gone from my portfolio this week. It is down a dismal 37%. I want a cagey stock to replace IVAC. I want something that should be "recession proof". A good defensive play. Do people know what I plan to buy?

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