Friday, December 11, 2009

My "Mechanical" Stocks

I thought it would be interesting to see how my mechanical stocks have fared. For each stock, I show the date I bought it, the percentage change, and how the benchmark Russell 3000 has fared in the same time period. The top part of the table are stocks I still own and the bottom shows stocks that I sold early.

Overall I am beating the benchmark by about 9 points.



Values



Symbol Date Bought Price Pct Gain IWV Gain Diff
AGX 10/22/2009 $12.31 $12.20 -0.9% 1.2% -2.1%
AMED 9/8/2009 $35.86 $40.62 13.3% 7.6% 5.7%
BIOC 7/30/2009 $3.70 $3.95 6.8% 12.8% -6.0%
BKE 8/17/2009 $26.66 $28.30 13.7% 12.8% 0.9%
BR 7/30/2009 $16.53 $22.69 38.1% 12.8% 25.3%
CBI 7/30/2009 $13.62 $18.52 36.0% 12.8% 23.2%
CBPO 12/4/2009 $9.15 $9.20 0.5% 0.1% 0.4%
CEU 8/26/2009 $5.40 $6.05 12.0% 7.4% 4.6%
CKSW 1/5/2009 $1.99 $5.53 177.9% 23.2% 154.7%
CMFO 10/30/2009 $4.30 $7.80 81.4% 7.2% 74.2%
ESI 11/3/2009 $93.61 $90.94 -2.9% 6.2% -9.0%
FRX 6/9/2009 $23.10 $31.31 35.5% 18.4% 17.1%
GIGM 7/27/2009 $5.02 $3.53 -29.7% 13.2% -42.9%
GTLS 8/27/2009 $19.50 $18.39 -5.7% 7.3% -13.0%
HCKT 5/7/2009 $2.30 $2.72 18.3% 23.9% -5.6%
IDCC 11/17/2009 $23.62 $25.22 6.8% -0.2% 6.9%
JCOM 9/30/2009 $23.00 $19.49 -15.3% 4.4% -19.7%
JTX 6/29/2009 $5.55 $5.16 -7.0% 20.5% -27.5%

6/30/2009 $5.41 $5.16 -4.6% 21.3% -25.8%
PFE 6/9/2009 $14.13 $18.30 31.8% 18.4% 13.4%
PRIM 9/30/2009 $7.30 $8.16 11.8% 4.4% 7.4%
PVSW 8/18/2009 $4.96 $4.81 -3.0% 11.7% -14.7%
QKLS 11/20/2009 $5.75 $6.35 10.4% 1.7% 8.7%
RGR 10/30/2009 $10.59 $10.05 -4.2% 7.2% -11.4%
RTN 7/27/2009 $45.61 $52.74 16.3% 13.2% 3.1%
UTA 5/29/2009 $7.90 $9.07 14.8% 21.4% -6.6%
WTW 9/21/2009 $26.00 $27.71 7.3% 3.2% 4.1%














Average


17.0% 10.9% 6.1%
Still Own 0













Values



Symbol Date Bought Sold Pct Gain IWV Gain Diff
AHCI 1/5/2009 $1.11 $1.73 55.9% 0.2% 55.7%
DBTK 3/16/2009 $6.70 $7.05 5.2% 14.7% -9.5%
DELL 2/23/2009 $8.55 $9.52 11.3% 6.5% 4.9%

2/27/2009 $8.66 $9.52 10.0% 7.4% 2.5%
FRX 6/9/2009 $23.10 $29.08 25.9% 11.1% 14.8%
GME 6/22/2009 $22.64 $25.76 13.8% 24.5% -10.7%

6/23/2009 $20.63 $22.65 9.8% 16.5% -6.7%
PFE 6/5/2009 $14.46 $16.27 13.6% 11.2% 2.4%
RST 5/7/2009 $58.50 $54.00 -15.3% 0.4% -15.7%
SEPR 8/17/2009 $17.86 $23.09 29.3% 1.4% 27.9%
SOLR 2/23/2009 $4.70 $8.09 72.1% 6.5% 65.7%
UTA 6/23/2009 $8.37 $10.90 30.2% 2.7% 27.5%
VM 6/5/2009 $4.38 $5.18 18.3% 4.5% 13.8%

6/23/2009 $3.11 $4.33 39.2% 2.7% 36.5%

6/6/2009 $4.23 $5.18 22.5% 4.5% 18.0%














Average


22.8% 7.6% 15.1%
Open and Closed

19.1% 9.7% 9.3%

Wednesday, December 09, 2009

JTX Soars

Well, so far JTX has been one of my laggards. They reported earnings this morning (Jackson Hewitt Reports Fiscal 2010 Second Quarter Results). Now typically a September quarter for a tax preparation company is as exciting as wathcing the proverbial paint dry. But not so this time and the stock jumped a snappy 18%. It shows how far down I was as I am still in the red, but hopefully this will lead to bigger and better things.

My other big gainer was LIWA, which shot up another 12% on extremely high volume. The 30% spike last week was prodded by an article in IBD. I have no idea what caused 4x normal volume.

Some one asked me about GIGM. I obviously liked them as they are a holding. I haven't seen any report or earnings since I bought the stock and it has moved down quite a bit (5.02 to 3.60). They should have reported in early September and pretty soon here in December, so they're almost two reports in arrears. I can't say that fills me with confidence... usually a company at least gives an excuse "we're working on a revenue problem with our auditors" or somethng. I suspect that much longer and they could be at a risk of de-listing.

Saturday, December 05, 2009

New Mechanical Stocks - December 4th

Relatively busy weekend for new mechanical stocks

CBPO was added to both top 30 and top 50 screens. This is a Chinese company that is new to the Nasdaq. Companies like this have generally had sharp run-ups of late. I did buy-in yesterday.

XOMA is a small bio-tech added to the top 50. I won't be buying thought some of these bio-techs have done well.

ARO - teen retailer, hits the top 30 list. I will consider buying. Here are my stats for the 3 companies.



aro cbpo xoma
+ Operating Income After Depreciation 337.00 45.31 26.02
- Minority Interest - Income Account - 11.72 -
= Income for Calculation 337.00 33.59 26.02

Diluted Shares Outstanding 67.991 21.633 172.762

Share Price 28.95 9.06 0.72
+ Market Cap Calc 1,968.34 195.99 124.30
+ Preferred Capital - - 0.00
+ Debt in Current Liabilities - 18.58 -
+ Long-Term Debt - 0.05 13.13

Cash and Short-Term Investments 285.63 50.35 27.73
- Excess Cash 283.76 50.35 7.17
= Enterprise Value 1,684.58 164.27 130.26










+ Property Plant and Equipment - Net 262.33 27.85 21.79
+ Receivables - 2.44 3.20
+ Inventories 221.52 33.22 -
+ Other Current Assests 43.24 1.58 1.33
+ Working Cash 1.86 - 20.56
- Accounts Payable 144.56 3.61 2.66
- Current Liabilities - Other 122.05 33.56 22.43
= Invested Capital 262.33 27.93 21.79
Earnings Yield 20% 20% 20%
ROIC 128% 120% 119%

Here is an update on my top 50 list:

Symbol
Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
DDMX 12/13/08 11.13 18.35 - 88.99 2.31 64.9% 27.3% 37.5%
PSOF 12/13/08 2.74 5.11 - 88.99 2.31 86.5% 27.3% 59.2%
ITWO 12/27/08 5.61 18.74 - 87.16 1.59 234.0% 29.2% 204.9%
JOYG 12/27/08 21.95 53.00 - 87.16 1.59 141.5% 29.2% 112.3%
TRMS 12/27/08 1.03 3.31 - 87.16 1.59 221.4% 29.2% 192.2%
CTGX 1/3/09 3.18 6.94 - 92.96 1.59 118.2% 21.1% 97.1%
PMD 1/3/09 6.44 5.65 - 92.96 1.59 -12.3% 21.1% -33.4%
HPY 1/24/09 8.54 11.54 - 83.11 1.59 35.1% 35.5% -0.3%
HLIT 1/31/09 5.15 5.55 - 82.83 1.59 7.8% 35.9% -28.2%
HGT 1/31/09 13.06 16.04 0.36 82.83 1.59 25.6% 35.9% -10.4%
CNU 2/8/09 1.96 3.40 - 86.98 1.59 73.5% 29.4% 44.0%
SJT 2/8/09 19.05 17.12 0.29 86.98 1.59 -8.6% 29.4% -38.1%
SGU 2/8/09 2.55 3.83 0.07 86.98 1.59 52.9% 29.4% 23.4%
TC 2/8/09 4.33 11.63 - 86.98 1.59 168.6% 29.4% 139.1%
bioc 2/14/09 3.72 3.99 - 82.76 1.59 7.3% 36.1% -28.8%
FORR 2/14/09 17.56 25.09 - 82.76 1.59 42.9% 36.1% 6.8%
ZYXI.OB 2/14/09 1.20 1.25 - 82.76 1.59 4.2% 36.1% -31.9%
FRD 2/21/09 4.95 5.79 - 77.42 1.59 17.0% 45.4% -28.5%
SOLR 2/21/09 4.22 5.01 - 77.42 1.59 18.7% 45.4% -26.7%
MTXX 2/21/09 17.90 4.16 - 77.42 1.59 -76.8% 45.4% -122.2%
TYPE 2/21/09 3.02 8.00 - 77.42 1.59 164.9% 45.4% 119.5%
PTIE 2/21/09 5.41 5.27 - 77.42 1.59 -2.6% 45.4% -48.0%
PDO 2/21/09 3.19 4.61 - 77.42 1.59 44.5% 45.4% -0.9%
SAPE 2/21/09 3.38 7.52 - 77.42 1.59 122.5% 45.4% 77.1%
VDSI 2/21/09 5.25 6.71 - 77.42 1.59 27.8% 45.4% -17.6%
IGTE 2/21/09 2.99 9.45 - 77.42 1.59 216.1% 45.4% 170.6%
DECK 2/28/09 41.27 97.81 - 73.93 1.59 137.0% 52.3% 84.7%
KTII 2/28/09 55.48 102.10 - 73.93 1.59 84.0% 52.3% 31.7%
INT 2/28/09 29.01 52.59 - 73.93 1.59 81.3% 52.3% 29.0%
ICAD 2/28/09 0.90 1.55 - 77.42 1.59 72.2% 45.4% 26.8%
EXBD 3/6/09 12.96 21.58 - 68.92 1.59 66.5% 63.4% 3.1%
DISH 3/6/09 9.27 21.20 - 68.92 1.59 128.7% 63.4% 65.3%
QLTI 3/6/09 1.41 4.73 - 68.92 1.59 235.5% 63.4% 172.1%
SRDX 3/6/09 16.87 23.09 - 68.92 1.59 36.9% 63.4% -26.5%
INFI 4/16/09 5.83 6.08 - 87.08 1.03 4.3% 28.7% -24.4%
CRAY 5/1/09 3.98 6.99 - 87.89 1.03 75.6% 27.5% 48.2%
TWX 5/1/09 22.84 31.42 - 87.89 1.03 37.6% 27.5% 10.1%
RST 5/1/09 29.83 18.05 - 87.89 1.03 -39.5% 27.5% -67.0%
ulcm 5/1/09 8.72 8.60 - 87.89 1.03 -1.4% 27.5% -28.8%
AAV 5/15/09 3.41 5.61 - 88.71 1.03 64.5% 26.3% 38.2%
AMED 5/29/09 30.43 38.30 - 92.53 1.03 25.9% 21.1% 4.8%
UTA 5/29/09 7.90 10.50 - 92.53 1.03 32.9% 21.1% 11.8%
PFE 6/5/09 14.51 18.49 - 94.55 1.03 27.4% 18.5% 8.9%
VM 6/5/09 4.55 5.50 - 94.55 1.03 20.9% 18.5% 2.4%
ONTY 6/11/09 2.60 4.85 - 95.08 1.03 86.5% 17.8% 68.7%
BPI 6/19/09 16.74 14.49 - 92.04 0.51 -13.4% 21.2% -34.6%
GME 6/19/09 22.95 21.33 - 92.04 0.51 -7.1% 21.2% -28.2%
SHAW 7/10/09 23.69 28.88 - 87.96 0.51 21.9% 26.8% -4.9%
RTN 7/24/09 45.39 52.65 - 98.06 0.51 16.0% 13.7% 2.3%
CBZ 7/31/09 6.54 7.21 - 98.81 0.51 10.2% 12.9% -2.6%
CBI 7/31/09 13.95 17.79 - 98.81 0.51 27.5% 12.9% 14.7%
DRC 7/31/09 29.11 28.12 - 98.81 0.51 -3.4% 12.9% -16.3%
JEC 7/31/09 40.98 34.94 - 98.81 0.51 -14.7% 12.9% -27.6%
NPSP 7/31/09 3.89 3.48 - 98.81 0.51 -10.5% 12.9% -23.4%
ASGN 7/31/09 4.23 6.92 - 98.81 0.51 63.6% 12.9% 50.7%
AGX 8/7/09 12.35 12.83 - 98.81 0.51 3.9% 12.9% -9.0%
BBND 8/7/09 4.00 3.43 - 98.81 0.51 -14.3% 12.9% -27.1%
LHCG 8/7/09 24.55 31.59 - 98.81 0.51 28.7% 12.9% 15.8%
RGR 8/7/09 11.45 10.64 - 98.81 0.51 -7.1% 12.9% -19.9%
PRIM 8/7/09 6.95 7.91 - 100.79 0.51 13.8% 10.6% 3.2%
SEPR 8/7/09 18.12 23.00 - 100.79 0.51 26.9% 10.6% 16.3%
CEU 8/21/09 5.10 6.00 - 102.96 0.51 17.6% 8.3% 9.3%
CYTK 8/21/09 3.04 3.25 - 102.96 0.51 6.9% 8.3% -1.4%
CMFO 8/28/09 4.55 7.14 - 102.96 0.51 56.9% 8.3% 48.6%
NAVR 9/4/09 1.79 2.18 - 102.60 0.51 22.0% 8.7% 13.3%
WTW 9/11/09 26.00 28.01 - 104.77 0.51 7.7% 6.4% 1.3%
MIPS 9/18/09 3.72 3.82 - 106.72 0.51 2.7% 4.5% -1.8%
ESI 10/30/09 90.35 85.88 - 103.56 - -4.9% 7.2% -12.1%
VRSK 10/30/09 27.43 28.43 - 103.56 - 3.6% 7.2% -3.5%
APOL 11/6/09 55.99 54.76 - 107.13 - -2.2% 3.6% -5.8%
CBST 11/6/09 17.60 18.18 - 107.13 - 3.3% 3.6% -0.3%
SNTA 11/6/09 3.20 4.46 - 107.13 - 39.4% 3.6% 35.8%
IMMU 11/6/09 3.61 3.41 - 107.13 - -5.5% 3.6% -9.2%
PBH 11/13/09 6.95 7.16 - 109.62 - 3.0% 1.3% 1.8%
IDCC 11/20/09 23.56 25.29 - 109.43 - 7.3% 1.4% 5.9%
PDLI 11/27/09 6.63 6.37 - 109.57 - -3.9% 1.3% -5.2%
CBPO 12/4/09 9.06 9.06 - 111.01 - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
XOMA 12/4/09 0.72 0.72 - 111.01 - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%






Top 50 Portfolio







Totals 19.0% 1.3% 17.6%
51.6% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed 6.9% -11.2% 18.1%
S&P C

111.01

Open 41.9% 25.1% 16.8%

Friday, December 04, 2009

Stuck in Neutral

Lots of action/jackson for individual stocks, but my MFI portfolio has gone absolutely nowhere since 9/23. In the meantime, the benchmarks have moved upwards. Has MFI lost its mojo? I have mentioned before that MFI is streaky, extremely streaky. I had said many times before that one thing to watch for MFI was the M&A space. I don't know if it is because we're approaching the holidays or whether the market is a bit extended, but M&A activity seems to me to be slowing down a bit.

During the week, LIWA (+34%) was my big gainer, then software companies CKSW and PVSW were up about 9% along with KHD, GTLS and HCKT were up well also.

Here is my overall portfolio

QXM 78%
WILC 160%
KHD 33%
UEPS 48%
CKSW 183%
LIWA 31%
CMFO 66%
BR 40%
UTA 33%
HCKT 27%
CBI 31%
PFE 33%
CSKI 34%
ENDP 25%
RTN 16%
FRX 35%
AIRV 6%
CEU 11%
TSRA 9%
QKLS 10%
BIOC 8%
IDCC 7%
WTW 8%
PRIM 8%
AMED 7%
AGX 4%
PVSW 6%
RGR 0%
BKE 8%
CBPO -1%
KSW -7%
GTLS -6%
ESI -8%
JCOM -9%
QCOR -17%
GIGM -22%
WH -17%
JTX -25%
CHCG -55%

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

Yee-Hah! Li-Wa!

I have been investing for more years than I care to state. But today I set a record. I had my best ever single day gain with a stock.

LIWA shot up 33%. I already had a chunk in my MFI portfolio, and I had added a second position (outside my MFI portfolio) after they mysteriously dipped post their 3q earnings. It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow.

With LIWA flying high, QXM up about 9% (I think due to their becoming independent from XING) and CMFO up 8% is was a huge day for my MFI portfolio, up about 2.2% in a flattish kind of day.

I did add a new stock Monday, TSRA. I like the space that they're in, even if they weren't new per my mechanical portfolio list (they were new May 1st and are up 70% since then). I also sold my GME last week (prematurely). I had been spooked by the Barron's article which insinuated that Video game stores would eventually go the way of CD stores and video rental stores as people get more and more directly online. Turned out to be a savvy move for the wrong reason as GME dropped 8% today as WalMart signaled a video game price war.

Here is my current portfolio, note I haven't added the TSRA position yet:

QXM 93%
WILC 164%
UEPS 52%
LIWA 33%
KHD 27%
CKSW 170%
CMFO 56%
UTA 34%
BR 38%
CBI 31%
PFE 35%
ENDP 34%
CSKI 33%
HCKT 21%
FRX 37%
RTN 14%
AIRV 7%
CEU 13%
QKLS 11%
BIOC 7%
IDCC 6%
WTW 7%
PRIM 7%
AMED 6%
RGR 5%
BKE 12%
AGX 2%
PVSW 2%
KSW -3%
ESI -6%
JCOM -12%
GTLS -12%
QCOR -20%
GIGM -20%
WH -20%
JTX -22%
CHCG -53%