Sunday, May 05, 2019



My 2nd largest energy position (after ECA) is OXY.  It is stunning.  Even with oil prices (USO) up 33% in 2019, OXY is down 5.5%.

Why?  I guess the biggest reason is they have made a competing bid for APC (although even at their peak in 2019 they were only up 10% while ECA was up 30% at their peak).

There is something else going on in the Energy space.  Norway is divesting and that is causing downwards pressure on share prices (Norway's huge oil fund makes major shift to renewable energy).  I highly recommend you read this article.   Not only does it help explain recent weakness in energy names, but it helps explain strength in renewables (SEDG up 28%, FSLR up 45% and SPWR up 51%).

Eventually the selling pressure will end.  Eventually the APC saga will play out.  I believe OXY has put in it's low from the two pressures.  And there is substantial upside plus a well-covered 5% dividend.

Here is a great article in Barron's today about OXY.

3 Takeover Scenarios That Could Boost Occidental’s Stock

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