April 27th 2018 MFI Tracking Portfolio Finalized

April 27th 2018 MFI Tracking Portfolio Finalized

Here at MFI Diary, we create a hypothetical portfolio (top 50 stocks greater than $100m) once a month.  We then track how that hypothetical portfolio does over a year.

We have been do that since January 2006.  It is a lot of effort on my part and it is proving that MFI at this lower end of market caps really doesn't work very well.

I am starting to capture top 50 greater than $1b and $3b to see if that improves things a bit. Frankly can't be much worse.  It is so distressing, I am not even going to chatter or comment as I usually do.  just say to yourself,  blah, blah, blah... this is bad again.

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change	Mkt Cap
ZYXI	3.04	5.57	83.4%	102
NTRI	27.97	42.90	53.4%	858
TGNA	10.46	15.92	52.2%	2,303
MSB	20.40	29.55	44.9%	302
SYNT	28.99	41.00	41.4%	2,405
CERC	4.05	5.44	34.3%	127
CJREF	4.36	5.68	30.4%	1,031
DISCA	23.95	30.90	29.0%	13,604
KLAC	99.32	127.48	28.4%	15,963
ESRX	77.21	95.80	24.1%	43,577
LEE	2.30	2.80	21.7%	131
AGX	39.81	47.82	20.1%	634
EGOV	14.59	17.26	18.3%	987
OMC	71.47	80.03	12.0%	16,778
VEC	36.56	40.55	10.9%	407
AMCX	53.23	58.41	9.7%	3,252
MSGN	21.60	23.03	6.6%	1,626
MPAA	19.40	20.66	6.5%	370
PTN	1.18	1.24	5.1%	231
AMGN	172.36	179.32	4.0%	118,153
MO	53.10	54.33	2.3%	106,142
BPT	20.10	20.35	1.2%	495
UIS	11.45	11.21	-2.1%	578
SP	35.70	34.52	-3.3%	794
VIAB	29.91	28.91	-3.3%	12,380
RPXC	10.97	10.48	-4.5%	544
EGRX	53.99	51.41	-4.8%	862
HPQ	21.03	19.95	-5.1%	35,073
AEIS	60.94	57.76	-5.2%	2,413
UTHR	110.40	102.57	-7.1%	5,052
GILD	71.41	65.04	-8.9%	96,535
IDCC	73.54	65.39	-11.1%	2,596
BIIB	276.80	229.24	-17.2%	58,266
ABC	91.42	74.76	-18.2%	20,336
QTRH	1.49	1.10	-25.9%	183
GME	12.40	8.65	-30.3%	1,408
NHTC	17.46	11.56	-33.8%	209
WDC	77.73	51.12	-34.2%	24,911
EVC	4.56	2.87	-37.0%	434
TVTY	36.60	21.62	-40.9%	1,458
TRNC	18.36	10.76	-41.4%	618
MIK	19.29	11.24	-41.7%	3,509
SRNE	6.30	3.65	-42.1%	522
TUP	42.56	23.80	-44.1%	2,322
CNCE	18.70	10.28	-45.0%	459
SQBG	1.92	0.93	-51.6%	121
ACOR	23.40	10.45	-55.3%	1,083
NLS	14.60	5.35	-63.4%	442
MDCA	7.45	2.10	-71.8%	435
FTD	6.50	0.72	-88.9%	180

15 stinker stocks losing 30% or more.  I have shown that the stinker rate over time is closer to 15%... so 15/50 is 30%. Yikes!  And it is not like the overall market was down (up 10.7% versus atrocious MFI of -6.7%).

Here are all the months:

Date	MFI	R3K	Lead
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%	1
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%	1
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%	1
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%	0
5/12/2006	20.4%	18.6%	1
5/31/2006	29.2%	23.3%	1
6/30/2006	22.4%	20.0%	1
7/31/2006	19.7%	17.3%	1
8/31/2006	13.0%	13.3%	0
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%	0
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%	0
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%	0
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%	0
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%	0
2/27/2007	-3.7%	-1.0%	0
3/26/2007	-9.8%	-5.5%	0
4/27/2007	-10.9%	-5.0%	0
5/29/2007	-11.5%	-6.3%	0
7/3/2007	-30.0%	-15.6%	0
7/30/2007	-19.9%	-11.5%	0
8/30/2007	-12.5%	-8.7%	0
9/27/2007	-19.0%	-18.2%	0
11/2/2007	-40.4%	-34.3%	0
11/28/2007	-40.1%	-38.3%	0
12/28/2007	-36.3%	-40.0%	1
1/25/2008	-36.4%	-35.9%	0
2/26/2008	-51.7%	-41.5%	0
3/24/2008	-40.9%	-36.8%	0
4/25/2008	-25.6%	-31.0%	1
5/28/2008	-22.2%	-33.6%	1
7/2/2008	-11.7%	-25.3%	1
7/29/2008	-10.5%	-20.9%	1
8/29/2008	-13.8%	-17.9%	1
9/26/2008	-4.3%	-10.0%	1
10/31/2008	18.7%	13.9%	1
11/26/2008	50.9%	27.7%	1
12/26/2008	48.9%	32.3%	1
1/23/2009	59.3%	36.4%	1
2/27/2009	92.8%	55.6%	1
3/27/2009	85.8%	48.1%	1
4/24/2009	69.7%	45.8%	1
5/29/2009	31.8%	22.8%	1
6/29/2009	21.3%	24.0%	0
7/29/2009	19.5%	15.9%	1
8/28/2009	7.4%	8.8%	0
9/25/2009	12.6%	12.4%	1
10/30/2009	22.7%	18.3%	1
11/27/2009	24.3%	13.6%	1
12/31/2009	23.7%	18.1%	1
1/22/2010	19.0%	20.6%	0
2/26/2010	18.6%	23.6%	0
3/25/2010	10.0%	15.4%	0
4/23/2010	7.1%	11.4%	0
5/28/2010	19.3%	25.4%	0
6/29/2010	16.7%	25.7%	0
7/29/2010	5.4%	20.1%	0
9/2/2010	7.3%	10.1%	0
9/24/2010	-4.3%	0.3%	0
10/29/2010	-2.9%	10.4%	0
11/26/2010	-8.5%	1.4%	0
1/3/2011	-11.4%	0.1%	0
1/28/2011	-7.6%	4.9%	0
2/25/2011	-5.5%	5.0%	0
3/24/2011	-4.4%	7.4%	0
4/21/2011	-16.0%	3.2%	0
5/27/2011	-12.0%	-0.4%	0
6/24/2011	-9.5%	5.0%	0
7/29/2011	-4.3%	8.1%	0
8/26/2011	12.0%	21.6%	0
9/30/2011	23.5%	29.6%	0
10/28/2011	0.4%	11.5%	0
11/25/2011	13.9%	24.0%	0
12/29/2011	9.9%	15.9%	0
1/27/2012	7.4%	16.6%	0
2/24/2012	7.8%	13.3%	0
3/23/2012	9.1%	15.2%	0
4/27/2012	10.5%	15.3%	0
5/25/2012	23.4%	27.5%	0
6/22/2012	26.1%	24.6%	1
7/27/2012	30.4%	25.7%	1
8/24/2012	26.0%	19.8%	1
9/28/2012	39.3%	22.1%	1
10/26/2012	48.3%	28.9%	1
11/23/2012	45.7%	32.1%	1
12/31/2012	52.3%	33.0%	1
1/25/2013	39.5%	22.0%	1
2/22/2013	46.5%	26.4%	1
3/28/2013	40.1%	21.2%	1
4/26/2013	35.0%	20.5%	1
5/24/2013	20.4%	19.2%	1
6/28/2013	26.9%	24.1%	1
7/29/2013	17.8%	19.0%	0
8/30/2013	17.5%	24.6%	0
9/27/2013	12.9%	17.7%	0
10/25/2013	11.8%	15.4%	0
11/29/2013	12.3%	15.6%	0
12/31/2013	12.7%	11.9%	1
1/31/2014	14.2%	13.0%	1
2/28/2014	15.4%	13.9%	1
3/28/2014	6.1%	12.3%	0
4/25/2014	8.6%	15.8%	0
5/30/2014	5.9%	11.7%	0
6/27/2014	2.5%	9.2%	0
7/25/2014	3.3%	8.7%	0
8/29/2014	-2.2%	1.0%	0
9/26/2014	-0.6%	-0.9%	1
10/31/2014	4.3%	4.4%	0
11/28/2014	-2.9%	2.9%	0
12/31/2014	-9.3%	0.3%	0
1/30/2015	-12.4%	-2.8%	0
2/27/2015	-19.0%	-7.3%	0
3/27/2015	-17.1%	-1.9%	0
4/24/2015	-15.4%	-0.8%	0
5/29/2015	-14.1%	0.1%	0
6/26/2015	-8.7%	0.4%	0
7/30/2015	3.96%	4.02%	0
8/28/2015	5.6%	10.2%	0
9/25/2015	6.5%	13.8%	0
10/30/2015	2.0%	4.0%	0
11/27/2015	8.9%	8.4%	1
12/31/2015	13.7%	12.6%	1
1/29/2016	22.6%	22.4%	1
2/26/2016	27.8%	25.4%	1
3/24/2016	26.5%	19.6%	1
4/22/2016	13.7%	14.8%	0
5/27/2016	14.3%	15.6%	0
6/30/2016	23.2%	16.1%	1
7/29/2016	17.1%	16.0%	1
8/26/2016	10.6%	14.6%	0
9/30/2016	18.6%	18.5%	1
10/28/2016	18.3%	24.1%	0
11/25/2016	7.4%	19.2%	0
12/30/2016	4.7%	20.5%	0
1/27/2017	10.5%	31.2%	0
2/24/2017	7.6%	17.4%	0
3/31/2017	6.4%	13.6%	0
4/28/2017	5.8%	13.8%	0
5/26/2017	11.1%	15.1%	0
6/29/2017	11.1%	14.7%	0
7/28/2017	12.5%	16.1%	0
8/25/2017	28.8%	21.5%	1
9/29/2017	20.0%	17.3%	1
10/27/2017	11.8%	4.0%	1
11/24/2017	9.8%	7.0%	1
12/29/2017	-3.4%	-5.4%	1
1/26/2018	-7.5%	-5.6%	0
2/23/2018	0.4%	3.7%	0
3/29/2018	-3.0%	8.5%	0
4/27/2018	-6.0%	10.7%	0
5/25/2018	-8.9%	8.1%	0
6/29/2018	-6.8%	7.9%	0
7/27/2018	-5.4%	4.4%	0
8/31/2018	-7.4%	0.9%	0
9/28/2018	-8.6%	0.7%	0
10/26/2018	1.0%	11.0%	0
11/30/2018	-2.1%	6.7%	0
12/31/2018	11.0%	17.5%	0
1/25/2019	-0.6%	10.0%	0
2/26/2019	-6.4%	4.4%	0
3/29/2019	1.8%	3.2%	0

I am too lazy to do the math, but all open 11 portfolios are trailing and the margins are pretty wide.  Clearly we should all just buy Amazon and Google stock and never worry again.

Dividend Subset

The only saving grace is if you pick stocks with a 2.6% dividend or higher.  They continue to do relatively well.  That was the case here again, they were up a respectable 7.7%.

Here is what a $100,000 invested in 2006 would be worth today.

Category	Value
Total	216,588
Total Russell 3K	291,307
Dividend	549,969

'

You can see the Russell 3000 is starting to pull away from MFI in total.  But if you picked MFI that paid a dividend of 2.6% or higher, you'd be in a much happier place.