Monday, April 08, 2019

Upcoming May 2019 MFI Select Tranche

Upcoming May 2019 MFI Select Tranche

As we move into April, it is time for me to start thinking about my next MFI Select tranche.  In February, I broke tradition and moved from 5 stocks to 7 as I added significant new dollars to my overall MFI commitment.

I also moved towards larger market cap stocks (generally $3 billion plus).  That move appears to be paying off.  My February tranche is up a snappy 11.6%.

2/1/2019  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $42.18 $51.88 $0.00 23.0% 7.3%
 BBY  $58.84 $74.77 $0.50 27.9% 7.3%
 HPQ  $22.07 $19.79 $0.16 -9.6% 7.3%
 MU  $38.22 $43.32 $0.00 13.3% 7.3%
 RTN  $166.65 $179.63 $0.00 7.8% 7.3%
 VIAB  $29.40 $29.78 $0.20 2.0% 7.3%
 WDC  $44.99 $52.04 $0.50 16.8% 7.3%
 Totals  11.6% 7.3%


May, for whatever reason has been my worst quarter tranche for MFI Select.  Look at the table below that shows in aggregate all quarterly tranches:


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  7.8% 6.2% 11.6% -0.2% 6.9%
 Previous Tranche  27.8% -0.6% -27.3% -3.6% 28.7%
 Tranche -2  -0.1% 42.6% 74.9% 19.1% 34.2%
 Tranche -3  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% -25.2% -0.9%
 Tranche -4  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 21.2%
 Tranche -5  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -6  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 34.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  154.1% 352.3% 160.4% 34.8% 175.4%
 Current Balance         63,521           113,084           65,089        33,699         275,392
 R3K Current Tranche  2.2% 8.4% 7.3% 11.0% 7.2%
 R3K Overall Gain  130.6% 136.4% 111.4% 97.5% 119.0%
 R3K Balance         57,643             59,107           52,845        49,378         218,973
 Annualized IRR  15.1% 26.6% 16.7% 5.2% 15.9%

The very bottom row shows the annualized IRR of May has been 5.2%.  Easily the worst of the 4 quarters. And the current, soon to be expiring, tranche is also laying an egg.


5/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CAAP  $12.19 $7.98 $0.00 -34.5% 11.0%
 TGNA  $10.51 $14.63 $0.28 41.9% 11.0%
 DISCA  $23.85 $29.48 $0.00 23.6% 11.0%
 FTSI  $19.39 $11.02 $0.00 -43.2% 11.0%
 ICHR  $21.96 $24.38 $0.00 11.0% 11.0%
 Totals  -0.2% 11.0%

Looking Forward

Here are the stocks from official list (over $3b) that are on my radar:


Number Ticker Market Cap Price Dividend Yield
1 ABBV            123,408         83.45              3.95 4.73%
2 MO            102,642         54.77              3.10 5.66%
3 ABC              16,306         77.27              1.56 2.02%
4 AMGN            123,030      195.41              5.41 2.77%
5 BBY              19,890         74.77              0.80 2.47%
6 HRB                 5,112         24.93              1.00 4.01%
7 FL                 7,147         63.70              1.38 2.17%
8 GNTX                 5,498         21.20              0.44 2.08%
9 GILD              86,586         67.54              2.34 3.46%
10 EAF                 3,893         13.40              0.32 2.38%
11 HPQ              30,425         19.79              0.60 3.03%
12 IPG                 8,259         21.53              0.87 4.02%
13 KLAC              18,821      124.34              3.00 2.41%
14 LB                 7,552         27.46              2.10 7.65%
15 LRCX              31,391      195.15              4.39 2.25%
16 LPX                 3,478         25.42              0.53 2.07%
17 MAN                 5,205         85.67              2.02 2.36%
18 OMC              16,881         75.16              2.45 3.26%
19 STX              13,870         49.23              2.52 5.12%
20 STLD                 8,067         35.81              0.80 2.24%
21 TPR                 9,933         34.25              1.35 3.94%
22 KHC              40,434         33.17              2.28 6.86%
23 VIAB              12,004         29.78              0.80 2.69%
24 WDC              15,144         52.04              2.00 3.84%
25 XRX                 7,665         33.38              1.00 3.00%

I will likely buy KHC.  It seems to me to have sold off too much.  I will likely not buy KLAC or GILD as I already have a bunch of them.

Top 100 List

I also ran a top 100 list over $1 billion for other ideas.

Ticker Rank  Stock Price  Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Dividend Yield
TVTY 1         19.30            822 16% 841% 0.00%
NKTR 2         36.30         6,290 13% 994% 0.00%
STMP 3         80.27         1,491 14% 544% 0.00%
MOH 4       147.36         9,814 14% 495% 0.00%
WTW 5         21.03         1,471 13% 746% 0.00%
DLX 6         46.10         2,098 12% 373% 2.60%
INVA 7         14.47         1,639 12% 299% 0.00%
MSGN 8         22.31         1,690 12% 243% 0.00%
EAF 9         13.40         3,893 19% 117% 2.38%
VIAB 10         29.78       12,016 14% 148% 2.69%
UTHR 11       120.81         5,316 19% 105% 0.00%
HPQ 12         19.79       31,011 12% 185% 3.03%
WU 13         19.39         8,636 10% 415% 3.97%
VIA 14         34.91       14,086 12% 148% 2.29%
BIIB 15       241.72       48,417 12% 142% 0.00%
GILD 16         67.54       87,734 10% 226% 3.46%
ALSN 17         46.80         6,084 11% 170% 1.28%
USNA 18         84.20         2,059 10% 206% 0.00%
TUP 19         26.70         1,303 16% 100% 8.65%
LGORF 20            1.54            998 18% 88% 0.00%
TGNA 21         14.63         3,169 12% 132% 1.91%
MD 22         28.19         2,488 10% 184% 0.00%
GME 23            9.86         1,008 32% 76% 15.42%
KFY 24         47.15         2,629 11% 133% 0.85%
OMC 25         75.16       16,956 9% 287% 3.26%
MIK 26         12.47         1,969 15% 79% 0.00%
HRB 27         24.93         5,124 11% 117% 4.01%
AMCX 28         58.25         3,376 13% 87% 0.00%
VGR 29         10.85         1,514 9% 256% 14.57%
STX 30         49.23       14,129 11% 103% 0.00%
KLAC 31       124.34       18,980 9% 188% 2.41%
ATEYY 32         26.50         5,244 14% 76% 2.45%
AEIS 33         54.83         2,116 10% 119% 0.00%
HCC 34         30.74         1,618 28% 66% 0.65%
CRTO 35         20.47         1,372 14% 77% 0.00%
PBH 36         28.58         1,492 9% 153% 0.00%
SNE 37         43.07       55,855 11% 102% 0.63%
AMAT 38         43.04       41,534 10% 103% 1.86%
LRCX 39       195.15       31,647 10% 105% 2.25%
DXC 40         65.45       18,260 11% 86% 1.16%
HUM 41       276.40       38,013 9% 179% 0.72%
CELG 42         94.80       67,678 8% 473% 0.00%
ABBV 43         83.45    124,841 8% 436% 4.73%
CASA 44            8.84            778 10% 98% 0.00%
SUPN 45         38.80         2,099 8% 3869% 0.00%
AMGN 46       195.41    125,062 8% 213% 2.77%
SHI 47         50.37         5,453 29% 56% 9.46%
OMAB 48         48.46         2,383 8% 154% 3.37%
CBS 49         50.37       18,989 11% 81% 0.00%
MO 50         54.77    102,803 8% 498% 5.66%
RTN 51       179.63       51,141 9% 135% 0.00%
EME 52         75.45         4,339 10% 93% 0.42%
BTI 53         40.75       93,521 8% 186% 6.51%
LEA 54       150.07         9,695 16% 57% 1.90%
THO 55         64.15         3,391 14% 58% 2.40%
MAN 56         85.67         5,337 14% 58% 2.36%
IPG 57         21.53         8,403 9% 130% 4.02%
GTN 58         22.58         2,003 10% 86% 0.00%
WDC 59         52.04       15,092 13% 60% 3.84%
FIZZ 60         57.89         2,717 8% 189% 0.00%
JAZZ 61       144.48         8,728 8% 239% 0.00%
YY 62         87.18         5,633 8% 158% 0.00%
KLIC 63         23.88         1,620 14% 54% 2.01%
BBY 64         74.77       20,442 10% 78% 2.47%
KBR 65         19.90         2,806 8% 216% 1.61%
MTOR 66         22.18         1,941 13% 55% 0.00%
MKSI 67         99.08         5,395 10% 72% 0.81%
NUS 68         50.74         2,859 11% 64% 2.89%
TARO 69       105.82         4,121 9% 75% 0.00%
MU 70         43.32       49,428 29% 46% 0.00%
HI 71         42.92         2,725 8% 131% 1.95%
CVS 72         54.06       60,601 8% 95% 3.70%
FOX 73         36.98       22,950 11% 58% 0.00%
EBIX 74         51.29         1,602 7% 302% 0.58%
PBI 75            6.86         1,295 10% 65% 8.93%
FOXA 76         37.68       23,384 11% 58% 0.00%
ABC 77         77.27       16,533 8% 92% 2.02%
GNTX 78         21.20         5,559 10% 64% 2.08%
ANTM 79       293.31       77,493 7% 213% 1.04%
CDK 80         58.90         7,510 7% 308% 1.02%
NTDOY 81         37.37       35,913 8% 83% 1.95%
ERF 82            8.68         2,129 18% 44% 1.05%
REGI 83         23.27         1,074 29% 42% 0.00%
MCK 84       116.70       22,757 9% 74% 1.29%
ODP 85            2.72         1,493 14% 46% 3.68%
HLF 86         53.75         7,794 7% 186% 0.00%
KNMCY 87         43.64         5,993 10% 65% 2.02%
LPX 88         25.42         3,587 17% 43% 2.07%
OSB 89         26.82         2,315 21% 40% 17.32%
SBGI 90         42.82         4,206 9% 71% 1.77%
BDC 91         57.59         2,305 9% 65% 0.35%
KHC 92         33.17       40,467 9% 75% 6.86%
CLF 93         10.54         3,239 15% 44% 0.95%
DISCK 94         27.61       19,741 7% 139% 0.00%
CKHUY 95         10.92       42,126 13% 45% 3.43%
RHI 96         67.45         8,084 8% 114% 1.70%
NCR 97         28.95         3,433 9% 73% 0.00%
AMN 98         49.37         2,375 8% 96% 0.00%
FFIV 99       167.33       10,148 7% 349% 0.00%

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