Final Week For May 2nd Tranche

Final Week For May 2nd Tranche

For whatever reason, I pick poor stocks in May.  Last year was no exception.  My five picks in my MFI select tranche are in the green, but not by much. 

The albatross has been two stinker picks, CAAP and FTSI.  They are both down more than 30%.  Of course, they also illustrate that timing is everything.  If I had bought them December 31st, they'd by +17% and +50%.

Stock	Start	Current	Dividend	Change
AGX	37.84	50.39	0.25	33.8%
WDC	36.97	53.94	0.50	47.3%
MU	31.73	43.03	-	35.6%
SGH	29.70	22.82	-	-23.2%
DISCA	24.74	30.38	-	22.8%
TGNA	10.87	15.81	0.07	46.1%
CJREF	3.50	5.75	0.06	66.0%
VIAB	25.70	29.70	0.20	16.3%
ICHR	16.30	25.32	-	55.3%
DXC	53.17	64.92	0.19	22.5%
AMCX	54.88	59.33	-	8.1%
GME	12.62	9.01	0.38	-25.6%
CAAP	6.63	7.75	-	16.9%
FTSI	7.11	10.63	-	49.5%

This table shows my current MFI Select stocks and how they have done in 2019 (excluding new picks on 2/1).

May Portfolio

Here are the 5 picks hitting anniversary:

5/2/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CAAP	$12.19	$7.75	$0.00	-36.4%	12.4%
TGNA	$10.51	$15.81	$0.28	53.1%	12.4%
DISCA	$23.85	$30.38	$0.00	27.4%	12.4%
FTSI	$19.39	$10.63	$0.00	-45.2%	12.4%
ICHR	$21.96	$25.32	$0.00	15.3%	12.4%
Totals				2.8%	12.4%

If I had bought these 5 names on 12/31, I'd be up 33%+. Timing is everything my friend.

New Picks

AS I ratchet up MFI exposure, I will be adding almost a 50% increase in May.  THis sounds like a lot (and it is) but frankly just gets May back to where some of the other tranches are as May has been so mediocre:

Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
MFI Overall Gain	162.2%	355.1%	161.9%	39.0%	179.5%
R3K Overall Gain	133.3%	139.2%	113.9%	99.8%	121.6%
Annualized IRR	15.5%	26.5%	16.7%	5.7%	16.1%

This table really highlights the May Tranche under performance.  Up only 39% since May 2013, an annualized IRR of 5.7%.  The other three quarterly tranches are averaging 19.6% per year.  That is a huge differential over 6+ years.

Here are stocks I am considering (I will pick 7):

AMCX

MO

HRB

DLX

EAF

NUS

VIAB

CBS

MTOR

WW

YY

STMP

KHC

Stay tuned

Grab A Camera

Grab A Camera

Wow, pinch me but my portfolio is actually doing very very well so far in 2019.  I am up 17.7% and that includes a income oriented portion of my portfolio that has bonds and preferred names. 

The Russell is up 16.25% and my dividend index is up 11.9%, so blended is up 14.9%.  And I am 14% cash (I actually have more cash in real life - more like 27%, but in what I call my active investing account I am 14%).

But what has caught my eye (and thus the headline), is that my MFI tranches are steadily starting to outperform.  Here are my 4 active MFI Formula tranches:

7/2/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CJREF	$3.90	$5.59	$0.31	51.3%	6.9%
GILD	$70.80	$66.31	$1.77	-3.8%	6.9%
IPG	$22.80	$21.87	$0.66	-1.2%	6.9%
KLAC	$102.03	$122.91	$2.25	22.7%	6.9%
TUP	$40.09	$26.76	$1.63	-29.2%	6.9%
Totals				8.0%	6.9%
10/2/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CJREF	$3.36	$5.59	$0.12	70.0%	-0.3%
GILD	$78.13	$66.31	$1.20	-13.6%	-0.3%
IPG	$22.80	$21.87	$0.45	-2.1%	-0.3%
PETS	$31.56	$23.43	$0.54	-24.0%	-0.3%
VIAB	$32.21	$29.85	$0.40	-6.1%	-0.3%
Totals				4.8%	-0.3%
1/2/2019	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
EGOV	$12.54	$17.05	$0.08	36.6%	17.7%
GILD	$62.01	$66.31	$0.63	8.0%	17.7%
IPG	$20.50	$21.87	$0.24	7.8%	17.7%
KLAC	$90.04	$122.91	$0.75	37.3%	17.7%
OMC	$72.74	$75.66	$0.65	4.9%	17.7%
Totals				18.9%	17.7%
4/1/2019	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
VIAB	$28.90	$29.85	$0.00	3.3%	1.0%
DLX	$44.50	$46.03	$0.00	3.4%	1.0%
HRB	$24.31	$25.23	$0.00	3.8%	1.0%
GILD	$66.00	$66.31	$0.00	0.5%	1.0%
KLAC	$122.10	$122.91	$0.00	0.7%	1.0%
Totals				2.3%	1.0%

Yes, you see correctly.  All four are leading their benchmark.  And I now officially have no stinkers (stocks down by 30% or more), though TUP is borderline.

Even my MFI Select, which has been in a bit of slump, is rebounding.

5/2/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CAAP	$12.19	$7.46	$0.00	-38.8%	11.0%
TGNA	$10.51	$16.04	$0.28	55.3%	11.0%
DISCA	$23.85	$30.19	$0.00	26.6%	11.0%
FTSI	$19.39	$10.80	$0.00	-44.3%	11.0%
ICHR	$21.96	$24.55	$0.00	11.8%	11.0%
Totals				2.1%	11.0%
8/15/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AGX	$39.45	$50.00	$0.50	28.0%	2.1%
AMCX	$60.97	$59.64	$0.00	-2.2%	2.1%
CJREF	$3.08	$5.59	$0.12	85.6%	2.1%
GME	$15.50	$9.76	$1.14	-29.7%	2.1%
SGH	$31.12	$21.01	$0.00	-32.5%	2.1%
Totals				9.8%	2.1%
11/15/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AGX	$43.15	$50.00	$0.25	16.5%	8.3%
DXC	$62.00	$64.57	$0.38	4.8%	8.3%
MU	$38.49	$42.28	$0.00	9.8%	8.3%
SGH	$29.67	$21.01	$0.00	-29.2%	8.3%
WDC	$44.92	$50.83	$1.00	15.4%	8.3%
Totals				3.5%	8.3%
2/1/2019	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AGX	$42.18	$50.00	$0.00	18.5%	7.2%
BBY	$58.84	$73.98	$0.50	26.6%	7.2%
HPQ	$22.07	$19.94	$0.16	-8.9%	7.2%
MU	$38.22	$42.28	$0.00	10.6%	7.2%
RTN	$166.65	$181.46	$0.94	9.5%	7.2%
VIAB	$29.40	$29.85	$0.20	2.2%	7.2%
WDC	$44.99	$50.83	$0.50	14.1%	7.2%
Totals				10.4%	7.2%

I am winning 2 and losing two and it is virtually a push in aggregate.  And when I start a new one in May, that should swing in my favor.  I am planning an another big $ increase in my May tranche and 7 stocks again.  As I have stated, my goal is to move MFI to be 65% of my total portfolio. It is currently just 44%, so there is work to be done.

May Select is my smallest $ tranche (not helped by relatively poor results), so I plan to bump it about 60%.  That seems big, but will just move MFI to 47%.

Speaking Of May

Still time to decide my 7 picks, but here are some of the names I am leaning towards.

Stock

MO

HRB

DLX

EAF

HPQ

MAN

STX

TPR

OMC

I may throw AMCX, CBS and DXC into the mix as well.

Almost  (Very) Interesting

I have commented in the past regarding how stocks that pay dividends AND are part of official list appear to out-perform.  For my MFI Formula approach,  that is just a given that stocks in there pay a dividend as that is part of my filtering process.

But my MFI Select has always been just that, "select", so I pick some stocks that pay dividends and some that don't.

If you bothered to go through the open MFI Select stocks in tables I listed above, you'd find 7 names that don't pay a dividend:

CAAP, FTSI, DISCA, AMCX, SBH, MU and ICHR.  In aggregate, these seven names are at -9.8%.  The rest pay a dividend and in aggregate they are +18.3%.  Luck?

Okay,  here are all my picks (going back to August 2012) that didn't pay a dividend:

Symbol	Gain
DLB	8%
KFY	36%
UIS	23%
STRZA	74%
KLIC	27%
CYOU	-4%
RDA	73%
KLIC	26%
RPXC	-5%
AVG	12%
RPXC	-18%
SYNA	29%
RPXC	-20%
AVG	19%
NSR	19%
IPCM	108%
AWRE	-30%
VEC	-29%
UIS	-51%
PSDV	-30%
KORS	-18%
DEPO	-34%
VDSI	-7%
SALE	26%
LCI	-29%
SAVE	55%
VEC	-6%
VNCE	3%
VEC	15%
PERI	-24%
DEPO	18%
TDC	22%
UTHR	14%
MSGN	22%
MPAA	-4%
ATHM	165%
AKRX	69%
YY	224%
MSGN	-12%
ICHR	15%
MD	12%
MSGN	56%
CELG	-31%
CASA	-38%
CAAP	-39%
DISCA	27%
FTSI	-44%
ICHR	12%
AMCX	-2%
SGH	-32%
MU	10%
SGH	-29%
MU	11%

On average:  up 13% (have some nice wins in there, like YY and ATHM).

Symbol	Purchase Date	Gain
MSFT	08/15/12	9%
NSU	08/15/12	-5%
AAPL	11/15/12	0%
ABC	11/15/12	74%
LPS	11/15/12	45%
VIAB	11/15/12	67%
WU	11/15/12	32%
AAPL	02/01/13	13%
GA	02/01/13	91%
CA	02/01/13	32%
NUS	02/01/13	181%
NVDA	05/06/13	35%
CF	05/06/13	34%
CF	08/15/13	35%
FLR	08/15/13	11%
AGX	08/15/13	140%
ATVI	11/15/13	15%
GA	11/15/13	34%
ATVI	02/01/14	27%
KLAC	02/01/14	30%
SNDK	02/01/14	9%
WNR	02/01/14	2%
CA	05/06/14	10%
CSCO	05/06/14	30%
RCII	05/06/14	14%
CSCO	08/15/14	30%
AGX	08/15/14	13%
ITRN	08/15/14	24%
BRCD	08/15/14	10%
CBI	08/15/14	-11%
FLR	11/15/14	-25%
VIAB	11/15/14	-28%
NHTC	11/15/14	323%
QCOM	02/02/15	-25%
VIAB	02/02/15	-27%
NHTC	02/02/15	61%
CBI	05/06/15	-24%
TSRA	05/06/15	-20%
CSCO	08/17/15	11%
TGNA	08/17/15	-13%
HSII	08/17/15	-3%
PPC	11/15/15	17%
QCOM	02/01/16	23%
BRCD	05/06/16	60%
CBI	05/06/16	-22%
HSII	05/06/16	20%
RHI	05/06/16	24%
CSCO	08/16/16	6%
GNC	08/16/16	-49%
VLO	08/16/16	27%
GILD	08/16/16	-6%
AMGN	11/15/16	19%
RHI	11/15/16	26%
CA	11/15/16	6%
KLAC	02/01/17	32%
WNC	02/01/17	48%
RGR	02/01/17	3%
WSTC	05/06/17	-3%
TGNA	05/06/17	-22%
TIME	05/06/17	23%
QCOM	05/06/17	-4%
SIMO	08/15/17	39%
RHI	08/15/17	79%
SIMO	11/15/17	-22%
VIAB	11/15/17	34%
AGX	02/01/18	-1%
KLAC	02/01/18	0%
THO	02/01/18	-51%
WDC	02/01/18	-46%
TGNA	05/01/18	55%
AGX	08/14/18	28%
CJREF	08/14/18	86%
GME	08/14/18	-30%
AGX	11/15/18	16%
DXC	11/15/18	5%
WDC	11/15/18	15%
AGX	02/01/19	19%
BBY	02/01/19	27%
HPQ	02/01/19	-9%
RTN	02/01/19	9%
VIAB	02/01/19	2%
WDC	02/01/19	14%

On average?  Up 21%.  Some crazy names in there in I have just bought and held.  

Symbol	Purchase Date	Purchase	Sold	Gain	Current	Extended Gain
NVDA	05/06/13	$13.85	$18.43	35%	$191.54	1283%
MSFT	08/15/12	$30.19	$31.92	9%	$120.33	299%
AGX	08/15/13	$15.60	$36.71	140%	$50.00	221%
AAPL	02/01/13	$450.60	$500.66	13%	$1,392.65	209%
ATVI	02/01/14	$17.16	$21.53	27%	$47.17	175%
ATVI	11/15/13	$17.71	$20.10	15%	$47.17	166%
AAPL	11/15/12	$537.62	$527.28	0%	$1,392.65	159%
CSCO	05/06/14	$22.79	$28.89	30%	$55.60	144%
CSCO	08/15/14	$24.40	$30.95	30%	$55.60	128%
KLAC	02/01/14	$61.35	$61.24	30%	$139.41	127%
HSII	05/06/16	$18.51	$21.65	20%	$41.97	127%
HSII	08/17/15	$20.14	$19.19	-3%	$41.97	108%
GA	02/01/13	$6.10	$11.01	91%	$11.90	95%
CSCO	08/17/15	$28.95	$31.20	11%	$55.60	92%
ABC	11/15/12	$40.21	$69.23	74%	$74.18	84%
CSCO	08/16/16	$31.20	$31.84	6%	$55.60	78%
CA	02/01/13	$25.07	$32.08	32%	$44.27	77%
ITRN	08/15/14	$21.32	$25.63	24%	$36.69	72%
RHI	05/06/16	$38.51	$46.91	24%	$65.60	70%
VLO	08/16/16	$54.73	$66.79	27%	$88.43	62%
BRCD	05/06/16	$7.97	$12.57	60%	$12.75	60%
RHI	11/15/16	$43.23	$53.51	26%	$65.60	52%
WU	11/15/12	$12.77	$16.40	32%	$19.17	50%
CA	05/06/14	$29.54	$31.41	10%	$44.27	50%
RHI	08/15/17	$44.15	$77.87	79%	$65.60	49%
LPS	11/15/12	$23.89	$34.26	45%	$35.00	47%
KLAC	02/01/17	$85.11	$109.80	32%	$123.34	45%
CA	11/15/16	$31.11	$32.31	6%	$45.00	45%
BRCD	08/15/14	$9.34	$10.09	10%	$12.75	37%
AGX	08/15/14	$36.71	$40.69	13%	$50.00	36%
AMGN	11/15/16	$145.14	$170.13	19%	$193.89	34%
GA	11/15/13	$9.04	$11.90	34%	$11.90	32%
QCOM	02/01/16	$45.18	$53.43	23%	$56.33	25%
VIAB	11/15/17	$24.41	$31.79	34%	$30.24	24%
TIME	05/06/17	$15.05	$18.50	23%	$18.50	23%
NUS	02/01/13	$41.94	$116.59	181%	$50.76	21%
PPC	11/15/15	$18.98	$19.46	17%	$22.36	18%
CF	05/06/13	$183.97	$243.15	34%	$211.25	15%
AGX	02/01/18	$43.55	$42.29	-1%	$50.00	15%
TSRA	05/06/15	$38.94	$30.46	-20%	$44.65	15%
CF	08/15/13	$187.26	$247.43	35%	$211.25	13%
KLAC	02/01/18	$109.80	$106.57	0%	$123.34	12%
SNDK	02/01/14	$70.20	$75.78	9%	$76.18	9%
RGR	02/01/17	$52.75	$52.95	3%	$54.19	3%
QCOM	05/06/17	$54.93	$50.32	-4%	$56.33	3%
NHTC	11/15/14	$12.19	$51.46	323%	$12.42	2%
NHTC	02/02/15	$12.44	$19.95	61%	$12.42	0%
WSTC	05/06/17	$24.15	$23.50	-3%	$23.50	-3%
SIMO	08/15/17	$43.05	$58.54	39%	$40.56	-6%
TGNA	08/17/15	$25.30	$21.37	-13%	$23.04	-9%
WNR	02/01/14	$39.80	$37.71	2%	$36.18	-9%
QCOM	02/02/15	$62.73	$45.34	-25%	$56.33	-10%
TGNA	05/06/17	$25.75	$19.83	-22%	$23.04	-11%
SIMO	11/15/17	$46.88	$35.15	-22%	$40.56	-13%
GILD	08/16/16	$79.33	$72.81	-6%	$67.40	-15%
WNC	02/01/17	$17.65	$25.83	48%	$14.72	-17%
RCII	05/06/14	$28.78	$31.77	14%	$20.63	-28%
FLR	11/15/14	$64.80	$47.46	-25%	$40.87	-37%
FLR	08/15/13	$66.06	$73.03	11%	$40.87	-38%
VIAB	11/15/12	$49.12	$80.94	67%	$29.85	-39%
WDC	02/01/18	$87.74	$44.99	-46%	$50.69	-42%
THO	02/01/18	$136.33	$65.11	-51%	$65.77	-52%
VIAB	02/02/15	$63.91	$44.90	-27%	$30.24	-53%
CBI	05/06/16	$37.82	$29.30	-22%	$16.39	-57%
VIAB	11/15/14	$72.29	$50.69	-28%	$30.24	-58%
CBI	05/06/15	$50.38	$38.23	-24%	$16.39	-67%
CBI	08/15/14	$58.25	$51.70	-11%	$16.39	-72%
GNC	08/16/16	$19.79	$9.62	-49%	$2.60	-87%

I was too lazy to include dividends.  But they would have added quite a bit. For instance the CSCO 5/14 pick is up 144% in total (22.90 to 55.60).  Dividends would add another $5.20 taking the 144% to 167%.  

GNC, CBI, VIAB and THO have been the big stinkers.  ay-yi-yi.