Tuesday, January 02, 2018

Starting 2018 With A Bang

Starting 2018 With A Bang

Wow.  What a start for me.  My best day since July 5th,   Up almost 1.6%.  Not sure why.  One theory is that a bunch of my names had been suppressed for the last month or two due to tax loss selling.  Ok, I did have some stinkers from 2017 in my Miscellaneous portfolio.

You can see that (in my view) looking at SYGP (which I still own) and NVIV (which I sold a month ago).  Both stocks were dreadful in 2017.  But SYGP popped 10% on no news.  NVIV was up 18% on no news.  It is weird (to me) that tax loss selling could drive such a result, as a savvy investor could have just bought a ton of stocks being sold for that reason on Friday.  Enough savvy investors like that would take away that drop/pop to some extent.

I guess I "lucked" into it a bit.  When I wrote my "Opposite" blog a couple weeks ago (

The Opposite - Deep Value Thoughts Part 2

) I followed up on that blog more than doubling mu position in a group of out-of-favor stocks (as I mentioned in weekend update 12/23/17) EXXI, AUPH, OMER, SGYP and SELB.  Today here is what those stocks did:

EXXI:   +7.3%
AUPH:  7.1%
OMER:  3.8%
SGYP:  +9.9%
SELB:  +4.4%.

Now I am not saying I was smart (more like lucky) and the bigger question was whether this is a temporary move or a reversion to the mean will continue.  But it does illustrate that it is sometimes best to do the opposite... as even my tracking of stocks I have sold showed. 

In fact, I do keep track of stocks I have sold (it isn't all inclusive) and it was up 2.5% today, lead by double digit gains in WATT, NVIV and ITEK.

MFI Stuff

My new MFI Index shot up 2.5% today!  This will hopefully be the year value trumps growth.  SRNE was up 22% and AMAG was up 10%.

My MFI Formula (with new stocks) was up 1.3% and my MFI Select was up 1.9%.  Finally GARIX was up a mere 70 basis points. I did not get to buy my new tranche until mid day.  I also marked IWV at that time:

1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $177.00 $0.00 -0.1% 0.2%
 GME  $18.06 $18.26 $0.00 1.1% 0.2%
 GILD  $71.64 $74.10 $0.00 3.4% 0.2%
 HRB  $26.34 $26.76 $0.00 1.6% 0.2%
 OMC  $72.81 $72.77 $0.00 -0.1% 0.2%
 Totals  1.2% 0.2%

GILD (followed by OMC and GME) has become my single largest stock with these formula adds. Go GILD! Onward! 

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