Friday, January 19, 2018

MFI Diary Weekend Update 1/20/2018

MFI Diary Weekend Update 1/20/2018

Happy weekend everyone.  Back from a fun-filled week at Disney World.  Never inexpensive, but they always make it a great experience.

Now off to New Hampshire to spend some time at the Condo.  Maybe I'll even try skiing for first time since torn ACL.

You have found your way to the MFI Diary.  This is a blog following the investment approach described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats The Market.  I have been writing this blog and following his investment approach since early 2006.

I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some key/interesting posts. I encourage you to give it a whirl Guide To New Readers).  (PS - let me know, in the grievance section, if this link does not work). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor.  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

Opinions here are my own, I certainly am no CFA.

Onwards.

Last Week

Things just continue to be smooth sailing.  The Russell 3000 was up another 90 basis points and is now up 4.9% on the year.  It is almost frightening.  I think I saw we have gone the longest ever without a 5% downward move.  Nothing seems to faze investors, US Govt may shut down? Yawn.

I did buy one security this week.  A new issue GSLPF, from GLOP (GLOP Latest - GasLog Partners LP | Seeking Alpha).  It is a preferred stock that at $25 pays a 8.2% dividend. What I like about it is that after 5 years it adjusts to a floating rate, 5.839% plus 3 month LIBOR.  That gives the owner inflation protection starting March 2023.  Not sexy, but solid income for the retired.

The week wasn't that kind to me as I actually lost a little ground, even though R3K was up.


 Component   YTD   Week Change 
 Overall  +3.4% -0.2%
 MFI Select  +4.4% +1.5%
 MFI Formula  +4.3% +0.8%
 MFI Combined  +4.4% +1.2%
 Miscellaneous  +1.5% -2.5%
 Dividend  +3.6% -0.1%
 Dividend Index  +0.5% +0.1%
 R3K Index  +4.9% +0.9%
 Blended Index  +3.4% +0.6%
 MFI Index  +5.9% +0.4%
 GARIX  +4.8% +1.1%



So the keen-eyed reader will note:
  • My MFI hung in there, up 1.2% on the week - even with the 30% cash component.
  • My Misc was bad, down 2.5%... I know, you ask "why bother?".
  • My dividend portfolio was down a smidgen - but income holdings continue to be pressured.
  • My MFI Index is now up a snappy 5.9% on the year, very nice.
  • And GARIX is up 4.8%, I am thrilled with this as GARIX is my largest single holding, although I do not list it in my three investing legs (OIBAX is only mutual fund I show).
I did get two great pieces of news during the week, although neither was enough to get me into the
green.  

First ICHR preannounced very good 4th quarter numbers and gave guidance for 1st quarter above expectations.  The stock popped about 30% (Ichor +8.3 on prelim Q4 results, upside guidance).

Second, Related made an unsolicted offer for LADR, one of my favorite dividend stocks at $15.  That has caused the stock to move up about 10% this week. (Big day for Ladder Capital after buyout proposal).  But that offer is way too low.  Brad Thomas, who is a top analyst for Seeking Alpha thinks a fair price would be north of $20. (Great Minds Think Alike).

I guess there was actually a third tidbit (WSJ: Shari Redstone looks for new CBS directors in Viacom re-merger push).  So VIAB is up 37% since I bought in mid November for MFI Select.

Of course, if you own enough stocks - you will regularly get some good news. The true test is overall portfolio.

MFI Select

I have two real $ MFI portfolio: Select and Formula.  Select was started by me in August 2012.  I had quit MFI for a year at that time.  I did some homework and analysis and came back with Select.  This is a portfolio of 4 tranche and each tranche has 5 stocks that I buy and hold for a year.  

I give myself total freeform on how I pick my stocks, both official screen and my own screen. I try to pick true MFI - type stocks, meaning those that have sustainable earnings (this is key).  Here are my open tranches:


2/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AKRX  $19.10 $33.01 $0.00 72.8% 24.4%
 YY  $41.08 $138.20 $0.00 236.4% 24.4%
 KLAC  $85.11 $115.02 $2.26 37.8% 24.4%
 WNC  $17.65 $22.25 $0.24 27.4% 24.4%
 RGR  $52.75 $54.00 $1.36 4.9% 24.4%
 Totals  75.9% 24.4%
5/6/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 WSTC  $24.15 $23.50 $0.00 -2.7% 18.0%
 TGNA  $25.75 $25.29 $0.21 -1.0% 18.0%
 TIME  $15.05 $18.55 $0.08 23.8% 18.0%
 MSGN  $23.55 $22.35 $0.00 -5.1% 18.0%
 QCOM  $54.93 $68.04 $1.71 27.0% 18.0%
 Totals  8.4% 18.0%
8/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GHC  $591.10 $581.80 $1.27 -1.4% 14.9%
 ICHR  $19.80 $32.39 $0.00 63.6% 14.9%
 MD  $43.00 $53.52 $0.00 24.5% 14.9%
 SIMO  $43.05 $48.15 $0.30 12.5% 14.9%
 RHI  $44.15 $57.02 $0.48 30.2% 14.9%
 Totals  25.9% 14.9%
11/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MSGN  $16.67 $22.35 $0.00 34.1% 9.6%
 CELG  $100.60 $102.65 $0.00 2.0% 9.6%
 EVC  $5.78 $7.35 $0.05 28.0% 9.6%
 SIMO  $46.88 $48.15 $0.00 2.7% 9.6%
 VIAB  $24.41 $33.36 $0.20 37.5% 9.6%
 Totals  20.9% 9.6%

So you can see 3 of my 4 tranches are leading the Russell 3000 benchmark.  Here is a table that shows my overall results since August 2012:


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  25.9% 20.9% 75.9% 8.4% 30.3%
 Previous Tranche  -0.1% 42.6% 10.7% 19.1% 23.1%
 Tranche -2  2.8% 8.0% -14.3% -25.2% -7.2%
 Tranche -3  11.2% 69.4% 8.5% 18.3% 26.8%
 Tranche -4  41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 41.7%
 Tranche -5  14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5%
 MFI Overall Gain  132.0% 418.1% 222.7% 51.9% 206.2%
 Current Balance         58,011           129,530           80,687        37,968         306,196
 R3K Current Tranche  14.9% 9.6% 24.4% 18.0% 16.7%
 R3K Overall Gain  120.1% 124.6% 101.2% 88.3% 108.5%
 R3K Balance         55,019             56,143           50,302        47,076         208,541
 Annualized IRR  16.8% 37.4% 26.6% 9.3% 22.5%

Table shows how good things have been so far.  A 22.5% annualized IRR.  This shows how a hypothetical $100,000 starting in August 2012 would be $306,196 right now.  That is right amigos!  A triple.  And my current 4 tranches are up an aggregate 30.3% versus 16.7% for the benchmark.

Then here is how the hypothetical $100,000 has grown quarter by quarter.


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
Current 97.65%        306,196            208,541

So up 5.2% (306,196/291,114) since start of 2018.  That is better that the 4.4% I show at the start of this blog as the hypothetical does does have the cash ballast that I have in real life (recall I am adding 30% cash to all my tranches throughout 2018).

Finally,  here is how the stocks performed individually during the week:


 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 SIMO              50.70         48.15                       -   -5.0%
 MSGN              21.60         22.35                       -   3.5%
 YY            135.23       138.20                       -   2.2%
 CELG            106.00       102.65                       -   -3.2%
 EVC                7.35            7.35                       -   0.0%
 ICHR              24.74         32.39                       -   30.9%
 AKRX              33.55         33.01                       -   -1.6%
 VIAB              33.76         33.36                       -   -1.2%
 RHI              56.36         57.02                       -   1.2%
 MD              54.22         53.52                       -   -1.3%
 QCOM              65.38         68.04                       -   4.1%
 KLAC            107.29       115.02                       -   7.2%
 TIME              18.50         18.55                       -   0.3%
 GHC            577.05       581.80                       -   0.8%
 WNC              22.46         22.25                       -   -0.9%
 RGR              54.05         54.00                       -   -0.1%
 TGNA              25.23         25.29                       -   0.3%

ICHR was great with their guidance.  SIMO was down 5% (and that hurst as they are one of my larger holdings).  Not sure what the deal was with them as my other semis (KLAC, ICHR and QCOM) were all very good.  CELG had a tough week as they are rumored to be buying JUNO.


MFI Formula

I started MFI Formula back in October 2014.  Same idea as Select, 4 tranches with 5 stocks each. I buy and hold for a year.  But in Formula, I pick my stocks via a formula and random number generator.  I try to take human biases out of the equation.  This does cause me to pick same stocks regularly in various tranches.... but I am ok with that.

Same tables.


4/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $18.45 $20.75 $2.75 27.4% 19.9%
 CSCO  $33.76 $41.29 $1.16 25.8% 19.9%
 GILD  $67.50 $80.98 $1.56 22.3% 19.9%
 OMC  $85.53 $74.96 $1.65 -10.4% 19.9%
 SYNT  $16.76 $23.54 $0.00 40.4% 19.9%
 Totals  21.1% 19.9%
7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $41.29 $0.58 35.2% 16.5%
 GME  $20.95 $18.13 $0.76 -9.8% 16.5%
 HPQ  $17.60 $23.70 $0.27 36.2% 16.5%
 RGR  $60.70 $54.00 $0.44 -10.3% 16.5%
 SYNT  $16.21 $23.54 $0.00 45.2% 16.5%
 Totals  19.3% 16.5%
10/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DIN  $43.14 $53.05 $0.97 25.2% 11.6%
 GILD  $82.85 $80.98 $0.52 -1.6% 11.6%
 GME  $20.50 $18.13 $0.38 -9.7% 11.6%
 HPQ  $20.22 $23.70 $0.13 17.9% 11.6%
 OMC  $74.80 $74.96 $0.55 0.9% 11.6%
 Totals  6.5% 11.6%
1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $189.28 $0.00 6.9% 4.3%
 GME  $18.06 $18.13 $0.00 0.4% 4.3%
 GILD  $71.64 $80.98 $0.00 13.0% 4.3%
 HRB  $26.34 $26.28 $0.00 -0.2% 4.3%
 OMC  $72.81 $74.96 $0.00 3.0% 4.3%
 Totals  4.6% 4.3%

You can see a bit more of a struggle here. But still 3 of 4 tranches are beating the benchmark (yea!).  But a couple of the tranches are pretty much toss ups.


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  6.5% 4.6% 21.1% 19.3% 12.0%
 Previous Tranche  7.0% 16.5% 25.2% 26.7% 19.2%
 Tranche -2  5.5% 9.3% -0.2% -12.5% 0.5%
 Tranche -3  0.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
 MFI Overall Gain  20.8% 47.8% 51.2% 32.3% 38.0%
 Current Balance      301,825        369,503     378,219      330,347      1,379,894
 R3K Current Tranche  11.6% 4.3% 19.9% 16.5% 13.1%
 R3K Overall Gain  49.6% 40.7% 40.0% 35.6% 41.5%
 R3K Balance      373,854        351,690     350,186      338,746      1,414,476
 Annualized IRR  5.9% 13.6% 15.8% 11.5% 11.7%


Hard to be unhappy with 11.7% annualized IRR, but it is no 22.5%!  Overall you can see I am trailing benchmark by a bit, 41.5% to 38.0%.  Lots of hedge fund managers and mutial funds struggle to beat benchmark as well.  No shame there.  I still have tons of confidence in this approach and added 30% to January 1st tranche and will continue to add real money in 2018.  Value stocks will come back in vogue!


 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
Current -3.46%        137,989            141,449

Steady trailing over time.  I always seem to make some headway and then fall back.

 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GILD              79.02         80.98                       -   2.5%
 OMC              75.92         74.96                       -   -1.3%
 GME              17.76         18.13                       -   2.1%
 SYNT              23.50         23.54                       -   0.2%
 CSCO              40.87         41.29                       -   1.0%
 HPQ              22.92         23.70                       -   3.4%
 AMGN            185.04       189.28                       -   2.3%
 HRB              26.36         26.28                       -   -0.3%
 BKE              20.95         20.75                       -   -1.0%
 DIN              53.42         53.05                       -   -0.7%
 RGR              54.05         54.00                       -   -0.1%

It was solid week.  GME bounced back after a dreadful previous week.  GILD continues in my mind to be a great value as well.

Dividend Stocks

For those who came here for MFI.  That is the end of MFI discussion.  I will now quickly review my other two legs of investing stool: dividends and miscellaneous.

My dividend portfolio was basically flat for the week.  I did add the GLOP preferred stock, but for time being will not be showing that in my tables (ok, I am a bit lazy right now).  I continue to like my holdings.

  • LADR got the buyout offer and in my view still has 10 to 20% upside.
  • TGP has a high likelihood (in my view) of increasing distributions significantly before year end.
  • CPLP also has a solid shot at increased distribution... perhaps by next quarter as they are well-covered.
  • PSXP just increased dividend (again) 5% quarter over quarter!
  • Then I think it is just a matter of time before some of my small banks get some buyout interest.

 Dividend Stocks  Start  Current   Divvy   Overall Pct Gain   Weekly Pct Gain   12/30/17 Price   Yield 
 OIBAX      5.91         6.06      0.19 5.7% 0.3%           5.96 4.0%
 KCLI    48.89       45.00      0.33 -7.3% -0.1%        45.25 2.4%
 TK      6.20       10.48      0.08 70.5% -0.6%           9.32 2.1%
 KNOP    21.30       21.80           -   2.3% -0.9%        20.75 9.5%
 CPLP      3.54         3.48      0.08 0.6% -2.5%           3.36 9.2%
 JQC      8.18         8.17      0.67 8.1% -0.1%           8.22 7.0%
 TGP    17.89       21.05           -   17.6% -0.9%        20.15 2.7%
 EVG    14.46       13.95      0.41 -0.7% -2.0%        14.35 6.6%
 PSXP    47.39       54.72      1.03 17.6% -0.8%        52.35 5.0%
 ISBC    13.25       14.40      0.15 9.9% 0.3%        13.88 2.5%
 FDEU    18.40       19.87      0.94 13.1% 0.9%        18.83 7.3%
 LADR    13.01       14.99      0.62 20.0% 10.3%        13.63 8.4%
 NS    37.98       34.19      0.82 -7.8% -0.1%        29.95 12.8%
 RLJ-PA    28.45       26.30      0.98 -4.1% -0.8%        27.01 7.5%
 NRZ    16.56       17.24      1.17 11.1% -2.8%        17.88 11.6%
 SBRA    22.28       17.76      0.91 -16.2% -0.4%        18.77 10.1%
 RILY    15.58       19.65      0.21 27.5% 3.7%        18.10 2.4%
 OCSI      8.68         8.26      0.38 -0.4% -2.2%           8.40 9.2%
 DSL    19.47       20.49      1.99 15.5% -1.5%        20.19 8.8%
 TGONF    11.04       13.65      1.79 39.9% -1.8%        13.30 5.1%
 AMID    13.25       14.30           -   7.9% 0.0%        13.35 11.5%
 TOO      2.25         2.78           -   23.6% -1.4%           2.36 1.4%
 O    25.72       53.14    21.06 188.5% 0.8%        57.02 4.8%
 Totals  9.8% -0.1% 6.4%

So down 0.1% on the week and up 3.6% in 2018.  This is doing much better than my Barron's dividend index (up a mere 50 basis points):


 Ticker  12/30/2017  Current   Dividend   YTD Change   Weekly Change   Yield 
 AMLP                10.79          11.59                    -   7.4% -1.5%          7.39%
 NML                  9.38             9.79               0.06 5.0% -1.6% 6.74%
 EPD                26.51          28.66                    -   8.1% -0.8% 5.82%
 ETP                17.92          20.00                    -   11.6% 0.0% 11.76%
 FDD                13.73          14.44                    -   5.2% 0.6% 2.66%
 VGK                59.15          62.44                    -   5.6% 1.1% 2.56%
 DDAIF                84.57          91.95                    -   8.7% 1.9% 3.75%
 NVS                83.96          86.94                    -   3.5% 0.3% 3.15%
 NOBL                64.04          66.21                    -   3.4% 1.1% 1.68%
 VYM                85.63          88.88                    -   3.8% 0.8% 2.71%
 MRK                56.27          61.28                    -   8.9% 4.5% 3.09%
 PEP              119.92        120.17                    -   0.2% 2.4% 2.64%
 VNQ                82.98          78.71                    -   -5.1% 0.1% 4.46%
 RQI                12.65          11.70               0.08 -6.9% -1.7% 8.20%
 TCO                65.43          62.06                    -   -5.2% -0.7% 4.02%
 SLG              100.93          93.91                    -   -7.0% -1.6% 3.35%
 T                38.88          37.21               0.49 -3.0% 0.8% 5.30%
 VZ                52.93          51.91               0.56 -0.9% 0.1% 4.51%
 CHL                50.54          51.52                    -   1.9% 3.4% 3.56%
 DTEGY                17.66          17.69                    -   0.2% 0.5% 3.84%
 DSU                11.70          11.63               0.07 0.0% 0.2% 2.36%
 HIO                  5.07             4.99                    -   -1.6% -2.0% 7.03%
 MUB              110.74        110.04               0.21 -0.4% 0.0% 2.22%
 PRHYX                  6.76             6.77                    -   0.1% -0.3% 5.40%
 NEA                13.75          13.48               0.06 -1.5% -0.6% 5.37%
 JNK                36.72          36.82               0.17 0.7% -0.1% 5.58%
 VWITX                14.13          14.06               0.03 -0.3% -0.1% 0.00%
 PHMIX                  9.09             9.05               0.03 -0.1% 0.0% 2.80%
 UTG                30.94          30.20               0.16 -1.9% -0.9% 4.20%
 XLU                52.65          50.01                    -   -5.0% -0.5% 3.51%
 DUK                84.11          76.82                    -   -8.7% -2.6% 4.56%
 EIX                63.24          62.12                    -   -1.8% 1.1% 3.60%
 PFF                38.07          37.95               0.18 0.2% -0.4% 5.62%
 JPC                10.34             9.97               0.07 -2.9% -1.7% 7.75%
 WFC-PL          1,309.99    1,288.10                    -   -1.7% 0.8% 5.80%
 TIP              114.08        113.20               0.21 -0.6% -0.2% 2.50%
 SHY                83.85          83.71               0.08 -0.1% 0.0% 0.98%
 TLT              126.86        123.06               0.26 -2.8% -1.2% 2.51%
 Totals                       -                    -                      -   0.5% 0.0% 4.29%

With Fed rate hikes looming, it will be a challenging year for income portfolios.  That is why I chose to compare against this index, as it is much more of a match with what I am trying to do to create a retirement income stream.  I do (admittedly) take more risk.  (I'll try and add GLOP next week).

Here are my small banks:


 Bank   Start   Current   Dividends   Change   Yield 
 ACBI          16.99          17.75                 -   4.5% 0.0%
 ASB          25.69          26.20                 -   2.0% 2.1%
 FBIZ          23.69          22.99                 -   -2.9% 2.3%
 FULT          18.81          18.55            0.11 -0.8% 2.4%
 FNB          14.47          14.34                 -   -0.9% 3.4%
 MSBI          32.96          34.25                 -   3.9% 2.4%
 NRIM          37.47          34.90            0.21 -6.3% 2.5%
 PACW          48.30          53.95                 -   11.7% 3.8%
 SONA          17.13          16.50                 -   -3.6% 1.9%
 WNEB          10.88          11.10                 -   2.0% 1.1%
 Total  1.0% 2.2%

Miscellaneous

Lot of higher risk names here.  Hopefully, SOME day it'll payoff, but can tough sledding in the interim at times.  Down 2.5% this week.  OMER was the biggest loser, down almost 15%.  This is a biotech that has some overhang.  They are waiting to get medicare approval on one of their drugs in production.  And then their is some trepidation about a needed cash raise.  These are weighing on the stock.  But I don't worry about these points.  The big payoff is their phase III study, everything else is noise and opportunities for those who want to surf the channel.

SLSDF also dropped 11%. Probably the world's most frustrating stock.  Just what they own, sum of the parts has to be pushing $2 a share.  Yet they are at 40 fricking cents.  I can wait.

NMM and EXXI were each also down 7%.  It is a portfolio for the patient.  The catalysts will come (for a decent proportion) in my humble opinion.  I have promised myself to just wait as I have a really bad track record of being a nervous nellie and selling some names that really pop too early.

I did get some good news, MTG had a great quarter and was up 3% on the week.

Final table, my gold/mining stocks:


 Miner   Start   Current   Change 
 TORXF            9.90          10.01 1.1%
 SAND            4.48             5.15 15.0%
 NSU            2.38             2.37 -0.4%
 KLDX            2.41             2.23 -7.5%
 KL          14.49          15.93 9.9%
 GSS            0.87             0.80 -7.6%
 FSM            4.24             4.88 15.1%
 EXK            2.14             2.39 11.7%
 BTG            2.61             3.05 16.9%
 EGO            1.18             1.34 13.6%
 Total  6.8%
These numbers are from inception (12/1/17)

Well, I think that does it. Off to New Hampshire!

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