Well, what a month for the stock market. The Russell 3000 is up almost 7%. That is what most experts expected for the entire year. It feels like a balloon that could pop at any time. We shall see.
So on one hand I feel great being up 3.7% in less than a month. But then I look at IWV and I feel a bit blue. However, it is a marathon, not a sprint. And I am not trying to get rich, but rather have a margin of safety. Still, more than a bit frustrating at times.
You have found your way to the MFI Diary. This is a blog following the investment approach described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats The Market. I have been writing this blog and following his investment approach since early 2006.
I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some key/interesting posts. I encourage you to give it a whirl Guide To New Readers). (PS - I continue to struggle to make this link work. You can instead go to Blog archive on left margin of this blog and you will find a link in October 2017). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor. You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.
Opinions here are my own, I just ramble on from time to time..
Onwards.
Last Week
As I mentioned, the past week was a bit frustrating for me. One of my largest positions, TK, was down 16.5%. That really hurt. I am viewing the sell off as an opportunity, but that doesn't help this week's results. It was a solid week for my MFI stocks (as you will see later) and a GREAT week for my MFI Index, up over 4%. Whoa. En Fuego.
| Component | YTD | Week Change |
| Overall | +3.7% | +0.3% |
| MFI Select | +6.0% | +1.6% |
| MFI Formula | +5.7% | +1.5% |
| MFI Combined | +5.9% | +1.5% |
| Miscellaneous | +2.0% | +0.5% |
| Dividend | +2.5% | -1.1% |
| Dividend Index | +2.1% | +1.7% |
| R3K Index | +7.0% | +2.1% |
| Blended Index | +5.3% | +1.9% |
| MFI Index | +10.0% | +4.1% |
| GARIX | +6.2% | +1.4% |
So you can see my Dividend results struggled for the week, down 1.1% (hurt by TK down 16.5%). My Miscellaneous also just seems to never do that well, even in good market weeks.
MFI Select
I'm going to go a bit quickly today as I am way behind - went to NYC for the weekend to meet friends. MFI Select is one of my 2 real $ MFI portfolios. It has 4 tranches of 5 stocks each. The Feb 1st tranche will be replaced mid week. I am pretty sure I have decided on my 5 new stocks, but I will save that for later in the week.
| 2/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AKRX | $19.10 | $32.47 | $0.00 | 70.0% | 26.8% |
| YY | $41.08 | $139.89 | $0.00 | 240.5% | 26.8% |
| KLAC | $85.11 | $113.44 | $2.26 | 35.9% | 26.8% |
| WNC | $17.65 | $23.36 | $0.24 | 33.7% | 26.8% |
| RGR | $52.75 | $54.70 | $1.36 | 6.3% | 26.8% |
| Totals | 77.3% | 26.8% | |||
| 5/6/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| WSTC | $24.15 | $23.50 | $0.00 | -2.7% | 20.3% |
| TGNA | $25.75 | $25.50 | $0.21 | -0.2% | 20.3% |
| TIME | $15.05 | $18.50 | $0.08 | 23.5% | 20.3% |
| MSGN | $23.55 | $23.05 | $0.00 | -2.1% | 20.3% |
| QCOM | $54.93 | $68.53 | $1.71 | 27.9% | 20.3% |
| Totals | 9.3% | 20.3% | |||
| 8/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| GHC | $591.10 | $592.65 | $1.27 | 0.5% | 17.2% |
| ICHR | $19.80 | $34.01 | $0.00 | 71.8% | 17.2% |
| MD | $43.00 | $54.76 | $0.00 | 27.3% | 17.2% |
| SIMO | $43.05 | $50.23 | $0.30 | 17.4% | 17.2% |
| RHI | $44.15 | $58.54 | $0.48 | 33.7% | 17.2% |
| Totals | 30.1% | 17.2% | |||
| 11/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MSGN | $16.67 | $23.05 | $0.00 | 38.3% | 11.7% |
| CELG | $100.60 | $105.17 | $0.00 | 4.5% | 11.7% |
| EVC | $5.78 | $7.40 | $0.05 | 28.9% | 11.7% |
| SIMO | $46.88 | $50.23 | $0.00 | 7.1% | 11.7% |
| VIAB | $24.41 | $34.09 | $0.20 | 40.5% | 11.7% |
| Totals | 23.9% | 11.7% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 30.1% | 23.9% | 77.3% | 9.3% | 32.7% |
| Previous Tranche | -0.1% | 42.6% | 10.7% | 19.1% | 23.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 2.8% | 8.0% | -14.3% | -25.2% | -7.2% |
| Tranche -3 | 11.2% | 69.4% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 26.8% |
| Tranche -4 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Tranche -5 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 14.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 139.8% | 431.0% | 225.3% | 53.1% | 212.3% |
| Current Balance | 59,962 | 132,744 | 81,333 | 38,271 | 312,311 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 17.2% | 11.7% | 26.8% | 20.3% | 19.0% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 124.4% | 129.0% | 105.1% | 92.0% | 112.6% |
| R3K Balance | 56,099 | 57,249 | 51,282 | 47,996 | 212,626 |
| Annualized IRR | 17.4% | 37.8% | 26.6% | 9.4% | 22.8% |
Still continues to be a remarkable run for MFI Select. 22.8% annualized IRR, plus my 4 open tranches are up an average of 32.7%. That will drop next week when the 77.3% from February drops to "previous tranche".
Here is how a hypothetical $100,000 spread over the 4 tranches starting August 2012 would have grown versus benchmark:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| 1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
| Current | 99.69% | 312,311 | 212,626 |
So the $100,000 has more than triples to 312,311 and is almost $100,000 ahead of benchmark.
Then here is a table showing how the stocks fared this past week:
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| SIMO | 48.15 | 50.23 | - | 4.3% |
| MSGN | 22.35 | 23.05 | - | 3.1% |
| YY | 138.20 | 139.89 | - | 1.2% |
| CELG | 102.65 | 105.17 | - | 2.5% |
| EVC | 7.35 | 7.40 | - | 0.7% |
| ICHR | 32.39 | 34.01 | - | 5.0% |
| AKRX | 33.01 | 32.47 | - | -1.6% |
| VIAB | 33.36 | 34.09 | - | 2.2% |
| RHI | 57.02 | 58.54 | - | 2.7% |
| MD | 53.52 | 54.76 | - | 2.3% |
| QCOM | 68.04 | 68.53 | - | 0.7% |
| KLAC | 115.02 | 113.44 | - | -1.4% |
| TIME | 18.55 | 18.50 | - | -0.3% |
| GHC | 581.80 | 592.65 | - | 1.9% |
| WNC | 22.25 | 23.36 | - | 5.0% |
| RGR | 54.00 | 54.70 | - | 1.3% |
| TGNA | 25.29 | 25.50 | - | 0.8% |
CELG had solid earnings and is buying JUNO. VIAB continues to be rumored to hook up with CBS. A lot of people expect AVGO to bid higher than $70 for QCOM. YY and AKRX will drop off list for me after this week as I will be selling this week.
MFI Formula
This is my 2nd real $ MFI portfolio. It has done well, but struggling a bit behind benchmark as Value stocks has lagged growth stocks past few years.
| 4/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $18.45 | $21.45 | $2.75 | 31.2% | 22.3% |
| CSCO | $33.76 | $42.56 | $1.16 | 29.5% | 22.3% |
| GILD | $67.50 | $85.46 | $1.56 | 28.9% | 22.3% |
| OMC | $85.53 | $77.65 | $1.65 | -7.3% | 22.3% |
| SYNT | $16.76 | $23.61 | $0.00 | 40.9% | 22.3% |
| Totals | 24.6% | 22.3% | |||
| 7/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $30.98 | $42.56 | $0.58 | 39.3% | 18.8% |
| GME | $20.95 | $17.06 | $0.76 | -14.9% | 18.8% |
| HPQ | $17.60 | $23.91 | $0.27 | 37.4% | 18.8% |
| RGR | $60.70 | $54.70 | $0.44 | -9.2% | 18.8% |
| SYNT | $16.21 | $23.61 | $0.00 | 45.7% | 18.8% |
| Totals | 19.6% | 18.8% | |||
| 10/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DIN | $43.14 | $54.82 | $0.97 | 29.3% | 13.8% |
| GILD | $82.85 | $85.46 | $0.52 | 3.8% | 13.8% |
| GME | $20.50 | $17.06 | $0.38 | -14.9% | 13.8% |
| HPQ | $20.22 | $23.91 | $0.13 | 18.9% | 13.8% |
| OMC | $74.80 | $77.65 | $0.55 | 4.5% | 13.8% |
| Totals | 8.3% | 13.8% | |||
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $196.01 | $0.00 | 10.7% | 6.4% |
| GME | $18.06 | $17.06 | $0.00 | -5.5% | 6.4% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $85.46 | $0.00 | 19.3% | 6.4% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $26.72 | $0.00 | 1.4% | 6.4% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $77.65 | $0.00 | 6.6% | 6.4% |
| Totals | 6.5% | 6.4% | |||
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 8.3% | 6.5% | 24.6% | 19.6% | 13.9% |
| Previous Tranche | 7.0% | 16.5% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 19.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 5.5% | 9.3% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 0.5% |
| Tranche -3 | 0.5% | 11.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 22.8% | 50.5% | 55.6% | 32.7% | 40.4% |
| Current Balance | 306,882 | 376,209 | 389,312 | 331,328 | 1,403,730 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 13.8% | 6.4% | 22.3% | 18.8% | 15.3% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 52.6% | 43.5% | 42.7% | 38.3% | 44.3% |
| R3K Balance | 381,216 | 358,644 | 357,031 | 345,392 | 1,442,283 |
| Annualized IRR | 6.4% | 14.2% | 16.9% | 11.6% | 12.2% |
Current tranches are trailing a bit, 13.9% to 15.3%. But compared to where MFI is in general (I'll post another blog this weekend about that), a 1.4% deficit is relatively good. I still believe in MFI Formula and will continue to show that belief with additional real $ (increasing stakes 30 to 35% this year).
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
| 4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
| 7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
| 10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
| 1/1/2018 | -3.63% | 131,460 | 135,086 |
| Current | -3.86% | 140,373 | 144,230 |
Continue to trail overall. Pretty steady thus far in 2018. Here are stocks over past week:
| Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
| GILD | 80.98 | 85.46 | - | 5.5% |
| OMC | 74.96 | 77.65 | - | 3.6% |
| GME | 18.13 | 17.06 | - | -5.9% |
| SYNT | 23.54 | 23.61 | - | 0.3% |
| CSCO | 41.29 | 42.56 | - | 3.1% |
| HPQ | 23.70 | 23.91 | - | 0.9% |
| AMGN | 189.28 | 196.01 | - | 3.6% |
| HRB | 26.28 | 26.72 | - | 1.7% |
| BKE | 20.75 | 21.45 | - | 3.4% |
| DIN | 53.05 | 54.82 | - | 3.3% |
| RGR | 54.00 | 54.70 | - | 1.3% |
GILD is really doing well of late. Nice for me as it is my largest MFI holding.
Dividend Portfolio
C'est tout for my discussion of things MFI. Quick look at my other two legs of investing stool. Here are my dividend stocks, had a rough week due to my outsized TK holding (and TGP was collateral damage). But I can wait and actually increased TK by 50%... that is either conviction or stupidity, I'll tell you in a year.
| Dividend Stocks | Start | Current | Divvy | Overall Pct Gain | Weekly Pct Gain | 12/30/17 Price | Yield |
| OIBAX | 5.91 | 6.13 | 0.19 | 6.9% | 1.2% | 5.96 | 3.9% |
| TK | 7.11 | 8.75 | 0.06 | 23.8% | -16.5% | 9.32 | 2.5% |
| KCLI | 48.89 | 44.55 | 0.33 | -8.2% | -1.0% | 45.25 | 2.4% |
| KNOP | 21.30 | 21.80 | - | 2.3% | 0.0% | 20.75 | 9.5% |
| GLOP-PB | 25.36 | 25.34 | - | -0.1% | 0.4% | 25.36 | 8.1% |
| CPLP | 3.54 | 3.52 | 0.08 | 1.6% | 1.0% | 3.36 | 9.1% |
| TGP | 17.89 | 20.30 | - | 13.5% | -3.6% | 20.15 | 2.8% |
| NS | 37.98 | 34.84 | 0.82 | -6.1% | 1.9% | 29.95 | 12.6% |
| LADR | 13.01 | 14.89 | 0.62 | 19.2% | -0.7% | 13.63 | 8.5% |
| JQC | 8.18 | 8.22 | 0.67 | 8.7% | 0.6% | 8.22 | 6.9% |
| PSXP | 47.39 | 54.56 | 1.03 | 17.3% | -0.3% | 52.35 | 5.0% |
| FDEU | 18.40 | 20.03 | 0.94 | 14.0% | 0.8% | 18.83 | 7.2% |
| ISBC | 13.25 | 13.70 | 0.15 | 4.6% | -4.9% | 13.88 | 2.6% |
| EVG | 14.46 | 14.17 | 0.41 | 0.8% | 1.6% | 14.35 | 6.5% |
| RILY | 15.58 | 18.95 | 0.21 | 23.0% | -3.6% | 18.10 | 2.5% |
| RLJ-PA | 28.45 | 26.40 | 0.98 | -3.8% | 0.4% | 27.01 | 7.4% |
| NRZ | 16.56 | 17.78 | 1.17 | 14.4% | 3.1% | 17.88 | 11.2% |
| SBRA | 22.28 | 18.18 | 0.91 | -14.3% | 2.4% | 18.77 | 9.9% |
| DSL | 19.47 | 20.45 | 1.99 | 15.3% | -0.2% | 20.19 | 8.8% |
| OCSI | 8.68 | 8.30 | 0.38 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 8.40 | 9.2% |
| TGONF | 11.04 | 13.56 | 1.79 | 39.0% | -0.7% | 13.30 | 5.2% |
| AMID | 13.25 | 15.10 | - | 14.0% | 5.6% | 13.35 | 10.9% |
| TOO | 2.25 | 2.75 | - | 22.2% | -1.1% | 2.36 | 1.5% |
| O | 25.72 | 54.21 | 21.06 | 192.6% | 2.0% | 57.02 | 4.7% |
| Totals | 8.1% | -1.1% | 6.4% |
LADR did reject a $15 buyout offer, we shall see if that gets bumped or not. Besides TK and TGP having rugged weeks, ISBC was down 4.9% due to their earnings (although they seemed ok to me).
Speaking of small banks, here is my small bank portfolio:
| Bank | Start | Current | Dividends | Change | Yield |
| ACBI | 16.99 | 17.00 | - | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| ASB | 25.69 | 25.20 | - | -1.9% | 2.2% |
| FBIZ | 23.69 | 24.02 | - | 1.4% | 2.3% |
| FULT | 18.81 | 18.05 | 0.11 | -3.4% | 2.4% |
| FNB | 14.47 | 14.40 | - | -0.5% | 3.3% |
| MSBI | 32.96 | 32.12 | - | -2.5% | 2.4% |
| NRIM | 37.47 | 34.00 | 0.21 | -8.7% | 2.6% |
| PACW | 48.30 | 53.14 | - | 10.0% | 3.8% |
| SONA | 17.13 | 16.18 | - | -5.5% | 2.0% |
| WNEB | 10.88 | 10.95 | - | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Total | -1.0% | 2.2% |
Not exactly high flying. I started this 12/1... needless to say that thus far Russell 3000 would have been a better spot for the money.
Miscellaneous
Not so hot here this week. I sold my SGYP. Overall loss was 15%. I was a bit slow on the sale as I got $2.35 and they were over $2.70 earlier in week. There is concern they are going to need to have another secondary, and last time thy did that they dropped beneath $1.90.
EXXI and SELB did have good weeks.
Here are my gold/mining stocks:
Here are my gold/mining stocks:
| Miner | Start | Current | Change | 2018 Change |
| TORXF | 9.90 | 9.75 | -1.5% | 2.6% |
| SAND | 4.48 | 5.37 | 19.9% | 7.6% |
| NSU | 2.38 | 2.36 | -0.8% | -3.3% |
| KLDX | 2.41 | 2.27 | -5.8% | -13.0% |
| KL | 14.49 | 15.73 | 8.6% | 2.4% |
| GSS | 0.87 | 0.80 | -8.2% | -10.6% |
| FSM | 4.24 | 4.84 | 14.2% | -7.3% |
| EXK | 2.14 | 2.47 | 15.4% | 3.3% |
| BTG | 2.61 | 3.18 | 21.8% | 2.6% |
| EGO | 1.18 | 1.35 | 14.4% | -5.6% |
| Total | 7.8% | -2.1% |
Ok, that is all for now.
Posts
4 comments:
In the Guide To New Readers under Useful Post List, most of the links are inaccessible. Blogger says I do not have access to view the page. Can this be fixed?
i will try. go back in 10 minutes
I think $GME in 3/4 MFI tranches is going to hurt over the next year. I've been watching them for some time and they just can't seem to break $20. They have a great dividend, but I think they're a cigar butt, held afloat by a good economy and a timely release of new gaming systems.
we shall see about GME. Emotionally I agree with you. But in my MFI formula, I take my emotions out and use random number generator and just live with results.
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