Monday, September 05, 2016

Weekend Update - Labor Day 2016

Happy Labor Day!

Hello, hope everyone had a happy and healthy labor day.  We just got back from a New Hampshire trip.   It was nice, but traffic heavy returning.  I think many people thinking about going to Cape Cod and Jersey Shore went to Vermont and New Hampshire due to closed beaches and tropical storm threats.

Last week was not all that hot for me.  Really due to VEC, as  in Wreck.  VEC was my #3 holding and dropped over 20% on the week as they lost a key contract. drats.

I was down 90 basis points while the R3K was up about 70.  That is probably my worst weekly differential since June.   So it goes.  Still beating benchmark solidly in 2016.

MFI Select

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
9/1/2016 67.04%        222,481            155,446
Current 58.31%        214,268            155,953


You can really see the drop in first few days of September, going from  a  67 percentage point lead to 58.  Still impressive, but I am a bit bummed.

11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $31.79 $0.00 -6.5% 8.1%
 SAVE  $34.48 $39.81 $0.00 15.5% 8.1%
 PPC  $18.98 $23.54 $2.75 38.5% 8.1%
 VEC  $23.60 $26.39 $0.00 11.8% 8.1%
 VNCE  $3.99 $6.87 $0.00 72.2% 8.1%
 Totals  26.3% 8.1%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $26.39 $0.00 34.4% 15.0%
 QCOM  $45.18 $63.35 $1.54 43.6% 15.0%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.27 $0.00 -48.2% 15.0%
 DEPO  $15.34 $20.93 $0.00 36.4% 15.0%
 TDC  $24.02 $31.75 $0.00 32.2% 15.0%
 Totals  19.7% 15.0%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $9.02 $0.06 13.9% 7.9%
 CBI  $37.82 $29.73 $0.00 -21.4% 7.9%
 HSII  $18.51 $18.85 $0.13 2.5% 7.9%
 RHI  $38.51 $38.50 $0.22 0.5% 7.9%
 UTHR  $107.99 $122.91 $0.00 13.8% 7.9%
 Totals  1.9% 7.9%
8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $31.83 $0.00 2.0% 0.1%
 GNC  $19.79 $20.74 $0.00 4.8% 0.1%
 VLO  $54.73 $54.83 $0.00 0.2% 0.1%
 MSGN  $16.68 $17.48 $0.00 4.8% 0.1%
 GILD  $79.33 $76.89 $0.00 -3.1% 0.1%
 Totals  1.7% 0.1%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  1.7% 26.3% 19.7% 1.9% 14.4%
 Previous Tranche  2.8% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 11.2%
 Tranche -2  11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 13.0%
 Tranche -3  41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
 Tranche -4  14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5%
 MFI Overall Gain  87.7% 251.3% 98.3% 19.8% 114.3%
 Current Balance         46,915          87,818       49,585        29,950      214,268
 R3K Current Tranche  0.1% 8.1% 15.0% 7.9% 7.8%
 R3K Overall Gain  67.3% 70.5% 53.2% 33.0% 56.0%
 R3K Balance         41,779          42,627       38,310        33,238      155,953
 Annualized IRR  16.8% 39.1% 21.0% 5.6% 22.3%

Three of four tranches are still leading.

MFI Formula

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
9/1/2016 -0.34%        106,704            107,048
Current -1.05%        106,676            107,727

This table month by month shows this method continues to be a push.  BKE had a tough week as apparently no one at all is shopping there,  SSS was like -14%. Yech!  Also, VIAB has dropped in a short time  from $44 to under $40.  That doesn't exactly help.

10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $24.72 $1.98 -27.5% 14.1%
 IQNT  $21.96 $16.28 $0.60 -23.1% 14.1%
 QCOM  $53.45 $63.35 $2.02 22.3% 14.1%
 CSCO  $26.37 $31.83 $0.94 24.3% 14.1%
 CA  $27.30 $34.19 $1.01 28.9% 14.1%
 Totals  5.0% 14.1%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $38.75 $1.01 31.2% 8.0%
 GME  $28.34 $28.39 $0.74 2.8% 8.0%
 IILG  $15.89 $17.37 $0.24 10.8% 8.0%
 PPC  $22.22 $23.54 $2.75 18.3% 8.0%
 VIAB  $40.93 $39.90 $0.80 -0.6% 8.0%
 Totals  12.5% 8.0%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $43.78 $0.44 -13.8% 7.7%
 HPQ  $12.10 $14.49 $0.13 20.7% 7.7%
 TIME  $15.24 $14.22 $0.38 -4.2% 7.7%
 IILG  $13.85 $17.37 $0.12 26.2% 7.7%
 TSRA  $30.79 $33.79 $0.40 11.1% 7.7%
 Totals  8.0% 7.7%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 IILG  $16.76 $17.37 $0.00 3.6% 3.6%
 VIAB  $44.00 $39.90 $0.00 -9.3% 3.6%
 CPLA  $53.22 $59.65 $0.39 12.8% 3.6%
 HRB  $23.62 $21.65 $0.00 -8.3% 3.6%
 PBI  $17.69 $18.91 $0.19 8.0% 3.6%
 Totals  1.4% 3.6%

Dividend Stocks

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $4.90 $0.00 0.0% -8.2% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.71 $1.51 20.7% 21.2% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $8.41 $0.45 13.2% 13.4% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.07 $10.57 $1.97 38.3% 38.5% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.42 $19.46 $0.44 8.1% 6.6% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.88 $1.69 22.8% 23.8% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $36.90 $0.00 73.8% 73.8% 75.7%
 O  $23.70 $66.27 $18.95 259.5% 256.4% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.06 $5.94 $2.25 61.8% 62.2% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $5.74 $0.23 -31.7% -26.0% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.68 $10.46 $0.45 2.2% 2.0% 0.0%
 Totals  15.4% 14.5% 9.0%

You can see BAC really popped.  I  am now at beak-even.  Hard to believe in June this security was around $3.20 and is now $4.90.

Other Stocks

WLDN is now a double.  It has been just a perfect stock.  EMG has become  a sizable play for me, I think they may sell themselves.  I have been buying at $3.75,  I think a sale could/should be $2 higher.  I still  own some  PN, but have taken most of my profits.

Have a great day.

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