Good morning everyone. Finely feels like fall, 50 degrees outside this morning. I have my Radio Swiss Classic
playing and a fresh cup of coffee. All is well with the world.
I see that the Iphone 7 went on sale yesterday. Obviously, I should have bought AAPL when it was cheap on the list in low 90s in May. I am pretty happy with my iPhone 6, not convinced I am ready to give up the headphone jack. But given Samsung's problems, I am more ready to consider the 7 than I was a month ago.
There is so much noise around the markets, hard to know what to do. I continue to hold quite a bit of cash, stay with MFI and dividend stocks. I did sell my SDS on Monday at a slight loss. I am simply never good at timing these things, although I really viewed SDS as a hedge. But I am mentally just more comfortable having my hedge/insurance being strictly cash.
MFI Select
It was a decent week here, made up a bit of the ground I had given up recently. Had great news from DEPO (Depomed (DEPO) Stock Soars Amid Sale Speculation), so they are now up 59% for me. It was weird, the stock is now north of $24. Yesterday I could have sold March 28 calls for $2. That seemed very tempting. I guess I do not see how the sale price goes north of $30.
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $32.58 | $0.00 | -4.2% | 6.0% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $37.23 | $0.00 | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $20.80 | $2.75 | 24.1% | 6.0% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $27.03 | $0.00 | 14.5% | 6.0% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $6.28 | $0.00 | 57.4% | 6.0% |
| Totals | 20.0% | 6.0% | |||
| 2/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $19.64 | $27.03 | $0.00 | 37.6% | 12.8% |
| QCOM | $45.18 | $62.99 | $1.54 | 42.8% | 12.8% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $1.25 | $0.00 | -49.0% | 12.8% |
| DEPO | $15.34 | $24.34 | $0.00 | 58.7% | 12.8% |
| TDC | $24.02 | $29.63 | $0.00 | 23.4% | 12.8% |
| Totals | 22.7% | 12.8% | |||
| 5/6/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BRCD | $7.97 | $8.95 | $0.11 | 13.6% | 5.8% |
| CBI | $37.82 | $27.42 | $0.00 | -27.5% | 5.8% |
| HSII | $18.51 | $18.62 | $0.13 | 1.3% | 5.8% |
| RHI | $38.51 | $37.16 | $0.44 | -2.4% | 5.8% |
| UTHR | $107.99 | $123.31 | $0.00 | 14.2% | 5.8% |
| Totals | -0.2% | 5.8% | |||
| 8/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CSCO | $31.20 | $30.84 | $0.00 | -1.2% | -1.8% |
| GNC | $19.79 | $20.53 | $0.19 | 4.7% | -1.8% |
| VLO | $54.73 | $56.73 | $0.00 | 3.7% | -1.8% |
| MSGN | $16.68 | $18.13 | $0.00 | 8.7% | -1.8% |
| GILD | $79.33 | $78.80 | $0.47 | -0.1% | -1.8% |
| Totals | 3.2% | -1.8% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 3.2% | 20.0% | 22.7% | -0.2% | 12.7% |
| Previous Tranche | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 11.2% |
| Tranche -2 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| Tranche -3 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -4 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 90.3% | 233.7% | 103.3% | 17.4% | 111.2% |
| Current Balance | 47,569 | 83,413 | 50,832 | 29,354 | 211,168 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -1.8% | 6.0% | 12.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 64.0% | 67.2% | 50.3% | 33.0% | 54.4% |
| R3K Balance | 41,779 | 41,809 | 37,570 | 33,238 | 154,395 |
| Annualized IRR | 17.0% | 36.9% | 21.6% | 4.9% | 21.4% |
Looking at my tranches and stocks, here are some observations:
- SAVE has really pulled back. It was around $49 and now is $37. I think if it is on the list and around $37 I may have to consider another year. I assume concerns about Zika are the driver. I suspect that will be shorter term.
- PPC has also come down a lot, it was around $25 and now $20.80. I assume that chicken prices have been steady/falling... seems to be impacting CALM as well. I think over longer term, these are both good types of stocks to own. Prices will fluctuate.
- VEC seems to have stabilized after shock prior week. I will have to think hard about whether to sell in November.
- QCOM has been great for me. That price in the mid forties in February was a classic "the market sometimes just goes nuts". A 43% gain on a large cap like QCOM is amazing.
- PERI continues to struggle. Management is doing a poor job. Biggest recent mistake besides CBI.
- I still like my five stocks in current tranche quite a bit. I think MSGN is still cheap. GNC has chance to be sold. VLO and CSCO will likely be boring but safe. GILD is the one I might take back.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
| 3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
| 6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
| 9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
| Current | 56.77% | 211,168 | 154,395 |
MFI Formula
This area continues to struggle. Not terrible. But just a smidgen worse.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| 12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
| 3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
| 6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
| 9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
| Current | -2.04% | 103,603 | 105,643 |
I will stay with it, I do think it deserves 5 years before passing judgment. And on my tracking side, dividend stocks are outperforming in open portfolios (6.1% to 5.5%).
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $24.76 | $1.98 | -27.4% | 11.9% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $16.64 | $0.60 | -21.5% | 11.9% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $62.99 | $2.02 | 21.6% | 11.9% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $30.84 | $0.94 | 20.5% | 11.9% |
| CA | $27.30 | $31.95 | $1.01 | 20.7% | 11.9% |
| Totals | 2.8% | 11.9% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $38.00 | $1.29 | 29.6% | 5.9% |
| GME | $28.34 | $27.09 | $1.11 | -0.5% | 5.9% |
| IILG | $15.89 | $16.47 | $0.36 | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $20.80 | $2.75 | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $37.00 | $0.80 | -7.6% | 5.9% |
| Totals | 6.7% | 5.9% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $42.24 | $0.44 | -16.8% | 5.7% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $14.53 | $0.25 | 22.1% | 5.7% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $14.80 | $0.38 | -0.4% | 5.7% |
| IILG | $13.85 | $16.47 | $0.24 | 20.6% | 5.7% |
| TSRA | $30.79 | $33.44 | $0.40 | 9.9% | 5.7% |
| Totals | 7.1% | 5.7% | |||
| 7/1/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| IILG | $16.76 | $16.47 | $0.12 | -1.0% | 1.5% |
| VIAB | $44.00 | $37.00 | $0.00 | -15.9% | 1.5% |
| CPLA | $53.22 | $58.92 | $0.39 | 11.4% | 1.5% |
| HRB | $23.62 | $22.41 | $0.22 | -4.2% | 1.5% |
| PBI | $17.69 | $17.66 | $0.19 | 0.9% | 1.5% |
| Totals | -1.8% | 1.5% |
My open positions are trailing by 2.5 percentage points. There are whispers that VIAB will discontinue their dividend.
Now my 9/30 tranche only has two weeks left. Just for fun, I have run a list of what my choices would be if I was picking today.
| Number | Ticker | Market Cap | Price | Dividend | Yield |
| 1 | HRB | 4,905 | 22.41 | 0.88 | 3.9% |
| 2 | BKE | 1,206 | 24.76 | 1.00 | 4.0% |
| 3 | CALM | 2,059 | 42.24 | 1.76 | 4.2% |
| 4 | CPLA | 689 | 58.92 | 1.56 | 2.6% |
| 5 | CSCO | 156,738 | 30.84 | 1.04 | 3.4% |
| 6 | GME | 2,834 | 27.09 | 1.48 | 5.5% |
| 7 | HPQ | 24,752 | 14.53 | 0.50 | 3.4% |
| 8 | LDOS | 3,073 | 41.53 | 1.28 | 3.1% |
| 9 | OUTR | 894 | 51.95 | 2.40 | 4.6% |
| 10 | PBI | 3,309 | 17.66 | 0.75 | 4.2% |
| 11 | TGNA | 4,537 | 21.41 | 0.56 | 2.6% |
| 12 | VIAB | 14,789 | 37.00 | 1.60 | 4.3% |
One thing I know many have noted... this list just does not change very much. I feel if I went back and pulled my very first list that 7 or 8 names would be the same.
Dividend Stocks and Warrants
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week | June 1 2016 |
| BAC-WTA | $4.90 | $4.58 | $0.00 | -6.5% | -1.2% | -20.6% |
| AOD | $7.64 | $7.56 | $1.51 | 18.7% | 20.2% | 17.1% |
| JQC | $7.82 | $8.31 | $0.50 | 12.6% | 12.7% | 8.4% |
| CSQ | $9.08 | $10.30 | $2.03 | 35.9% | 36.1% | 30.5% |
| DSL | $18.42 | $18.70 | $0.59 | 4.7% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.89 | $1.69 | 22.9% | 23.3% | 12.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $36.90 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 73.8% | 75.7% |
| O | $23.83 | $64.47 | $18.89 | 249.8% | 251.1% | 249.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.06 | $5.89 | $2.27 | 61.3% | 62.4% | 58.1% |
| SJT | $8.75 | $5.33 | $0.23 | -36.4% | -31.6% | -14.4% |
| GLDI | $10.68 | $10.39 | $0.45 | 1.5% | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 12.3% | 14.5% | 9.0% |
Not exactly a stellar week here. SJT has really dropped in past month or so. I just looked and since June it has dropped $2. Then BAC is giving a lot back as the probability of a rate hike next week has diminished.
Top Holdings
I have not shared a table of top holdings in quite a while. Many of largest holdings are dividend stocks as those have often been buy and hold. MFI stocks come and go.
| Stock | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends | Gain per Share | Pct Gain | Pct of Portfolio |
| CSQ | 9.08 | 10.30 | 2.03 | 3.26 | 35.9% | 5.7% |
| AOD | 7.64 | 7.56 | 1.51 | 1.43 | 18.7% | 5.0% |
| BAC-WTA | 4.21 | 4.58 | - | 0.37 | 8.7% | 4.5% |
| IILG | 15.37 | 16.47 | 0.25 | 1.35 | 8.8% | 4.4% |
| VEC | 21.97 | 27.03 | - | 5.06 | 23.0% | 3.6% |
| PPC | 20.31 | 20.80 | 2.75 | 3.24 | 16.0% | 3.4% |
| VIAB | 43.07 | 37.00 | 0.44 | (5.63) | -13.1% | 3.4% |
| QCOM | 49.49 | 62.99 | 1.79 | 15.29 | 30.9% | 3.1% |
| CSCO | 27.46 | 30.84 | 0.96 | 4.34 | 15.8% | 3.0% |
| EMG | 3.87 | 3.38 | - | (0.49) | -12.7% | 2.8% |
| SPCB | 4.02 | 3.33 | - | (0.69) | -17.1% | 2.7% |
| WLDN | 8.64 | 16.90 | - | 8.26 | 95.6% | 2.5% |
| SJT | 8.75 | 5.33 | 0.23 | (3.19) | -36.4% | 2.5% |
| JQC | 7.82 | 8.31 | 0.50 | 0.99 | 12.6% | 2.4% |
| TGONF | 10.24 | 10.89 | 1.69 | 2.34 | 22.9% | 2.4% |
| GNC | 19.88 | 20.53 | 0.20 | 0.85 | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| DSL | 18.42 | 18.70 | 0.59 | 0.87 | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| GLDI | 10.68 | 10.39 | 0.45 | 0.16 | 1.5% | 2.1% |
| SAVE | 34.48 | 37.23 | - | 2.75 | 8.0% | 2.0% |
| SBRA | 23.85 | 23.30 | - | (0.55) | -2.3% | 1.9% |
| BBY | 30.31 | 38.00 | 1.29 | 8.98 | 29.6% | 1.9% |
| LCI | 34.01 | 32.58 | - | (1.43) | -4.2% | 1.8% |
| DEPO | 15.34 | 24.34 | - | 9.00 | 58.7% | 1.6% |
| HPQ | 12.10 | 14.53 | 0.25 | 2.68 | 22.1% | 1.6% |
| CA | 27.30 | 31.95 | 1.01 | 5.66 | 20.7% | 1.6% |
SBRA is a new one to the list. I have been building a position in this healthcare REIT and at start of 2017 will make it part of my dividend portfolio (too lazy to make addition now!)
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