Thursday, June 30, 2016

7/1/2015 MFI Formula Tranche

Another Tranche Finishes

I closed my MFI Formula tranche last night.  I will start a new tranche either tomorrow or Tuesday (I am traveling tomorrow, so may not have time).

The tranche was my first formula approach to "lose" and it was pretty bad.  Below is a list of the four tranches that have now closed.

10/1/2014 Stocks  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BAH  $23.52 $26.21 $0.50 13.5% -0.6%
 BKE  $45.55 $36.97 $3.68 -10.8% -0.6%
 CA  $27.87 $27.30 $1.00 1.5% -0.6%
 GME  $41.70 $41.21 $1.41 2.2% -0.6%
 NUS  $44.56 $41.28 $1.40 -4.2% -0.6%
 Totals  0.5% -0.6%
 12/31/14 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CA  $30.83 $29.26 $1.00 -1.8% -0.3%
 CSCO  $28.36 $27.70 $0.82 0.6% -0.3%
 RGR  $34.81 $60.08 $1.10 75.7% -0.3%
 GME  $34.21 $28.71 $1.44 -11.9% -0.3%
 IQNT  $19.87 $17.78 $0.60 -7.5% -0.3%
 Totals  11.0% -0.3%
3/31/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 HRB  $31.99 $26.33 $0.80 -15.2% -1.1%
 GME  $37.69 $32.12 $1.45 -10.9% -1.1%
 KING  $15.85 $18.00 $0.00 13.6% -1.1%
 NSU  $3.43 $3.24 $0.16 -0.8% -1.1%
 PPC  $22.65 $25.40 $0.00 12.1% -1.1%
 Totals  -0.2% -1.1%
7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $25.51 $1.96 -40.9% -0.3%
 CA  $29.34 $31.53 $1.01 10.9% -0.3%
 MSFT  $44.42 $49.29 $1.39 14.1% -0.3%
 QCOM  $62.95 $53.45 $1.97 -12.0% -0.3%
 VIAB  $64.75 $40.81 $1.60 -34.5% -0.3%
 Totals  -12.5% -0.3%


BKE and VIAB were just too bad to overcome.  This approach continues to run virtually flat with just being in a benchmark.  I will stick with it for a bit longer, but am actively considering alternative approaches.

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Saturday, June 25, 2016

Weekend Update - Boom!

Weekend Update - Great Britain Votes to Leave EU

I think that this picture indeed is worth 1,000 words. A friend of mine gave me a great Hank Paulson quote when we were in the midst of the GFC: "It is all built on trust... if the big banks pull back on interbank lending, it's over within hours. From there is goes too fast to stop, and not just one bank; the whole system. And average people wondering, "is my money safe?" They start pulling out their cash. And after that: lines outside banks, smashed ATMs.  In a couple of weeks, there's no milk in the store."

So, hopefully it doesn't come to that. But if the speed of trade slows down and frictional costs are added, it does have potential to erode trust. I understand the anger - heck I  go on rants about the government here in CT all the time and I am in very good shape. The anger must be ten fold if you feel you've lost your job or are under-employed and you view it as the government's fault.

So with that preamble. I had a very bad Friday (down 3.5%). But for the week I was down "just" 1.7%. So while people seem a bit panicky right now, in the grand scheme very little has happened portfolio-wise. It could get much worse (that is my guess ==> it will go down another 10%).

MFI Select

8/17/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VDSI  $18.66 $16.09 $0.00 -13.8% -2.0%
 SALE  $9.34 $7.62 $0.00 -18.4% -2.0%
 CSCO  $28.95 $27.75 $0.68 -1.8% -2.0%
 TGNA  $25.30 $21.98 $0.56 -10.9% -2.0%
 HSII  $20.14 $16.96 $0.26 -14.5% -2.0%
 Totals  -11.9% -2.0%
11/15/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 LCI  $34.01 $24.23  $           -   -28.8% 0.2%
 SAVE  $34.48 $42.29  $           -   22.7% 0.2%
 PPC  $18.98 $25.10  $       2.75 46.7% 0.2%
 VEC  $23.60 $26.64  $           -   12.9% 0.2%
 VNCE  $3.99 $5.31  $           -   33.1% 0.2%
 Totals  17.3% 0.2%
2/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 VEC  $19.64 $26.64  $           -   35.7% 6.6%
 QCOM  $45.18 $52.12  $       1.01 17.6% 6.6%
 PERI  $2.45 $1.12  $           -   -54.3% 6.6%
 DEPO  $15.34 $18.88  $           -   23.1% 6.6%
 TDC  $24.02 $26.08  $           -   8.6% 6.6%
 Totals  6.1% 6.6%
5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $8.88  $       0.06 12.1% -0.1%
 CBI  $37.82 $34.13  $           -   -9.8% -0.1%
 HSII  $18.51 $16.96  $           -   -8.4% -0.1%
 RHI  $38.51 $36.92  $       0.22 -3.6% -0.1%
 UTHR  $107.99 $102.11  $           -   -5.4% -0.1%
 Totals  -3.0% -0.1%
 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
 Current Tranche  -11.9% 17.3% 6.1% -3.0% 4.2%
 Previous Tranche  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% -25.2% 54.1%
 Tranche -2  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 20.6%
 Tranche -3  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 0.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  58.0% 226.3% 75.9% 14.1% 93.6%
 Current Balance         39,507          81,580       43,963        28,515      193,566
 R3K Current Tranche  -2.0% 0.2% 6.6% -0.1% 1.2%
 R3K Overall Gain  55.4% 58.0% 42.0% 33.0% 47.1%
 R3K Balance         38,859          39,508       35,490        33,238      147,094
 Annualized IRR  12.6% 38.7% 18.1% 4.3% 20.3%


Definitely lost some ground this week.  I do not know why, but MFI stocks seem to struggle more than the benchmarks in times of "crisis".

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
Current 46.47%        193,566            147,094

So not a great June (sell in May and go away was probably a good strategy). But am back to where I was 5/1  - not a huge step back.

MFI Formula

My one tranche just has a week to go. It is a "loser", in the words of "the donald".

7/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $46.45 $25.21 $1.96 -41.5% -1.5%
 CA  $29.34 $32.00 $1.01 12.5% -1.5%
 MSFT  $44.42 $49.83 $1.39 15.3% -1.5%
 QCOM  $62.95 $52.12 $1.97 -14.1% -1.5%
 VIAB  $64.75 $40.97 $1.60 -34.3% -1.5%
 Totals  -12.4% -1.5%
10/1/2015  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $36.83 $25.21 $1.73 -26.9% 5.7%
 IQNT  $21.96 $18.61 $0.45 -13.2% 5.7%
 QCOM  $53.45 $52.12 $1.49 0.3% 5.7%
 CSCO  $26.37 $27.75 $0.68 7.8% 5.7%
 CA  $27.30 $32.00 $0.76 20.0% 5.7%
 Totals  -2.4% 5.7%
 12/31/15 Stocks   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BBY  $30.31 $30.15 $1.01 2.8% 0.1%
 GME  $28.34 $25.34 $0.74 -8.0% 0.1%
 IILG  $15.89 $15.05 $0.24 -3.8% 0.1%
 PPC  $22.22 $25.10 $2.75 25.4% 0.1%
 VIAB  $40.93 $40.97 $0.80 2.1% 0.1%
 Totals  3.7% 0.1%
 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $41.82 $0.44 -17.6% -0.2%
 HPQ  $12.10 $12.26 $0.13 2.3% -0.2%
 TIME  $15.24 $16.51 $0.19 9.6% -0.2%
 IILG  $13.85 $15.05 $0.12 9.5% -0.2%
 TSRA  $30.79 $30.60 $0.20 0.0% -0.2%
 Totals  0.8% -0.2%
 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
Current -0.21%        100,292            100,505

This approach continues to be a "push" against the benchmark.  Theoretically, if interest rates are now tethered more closely to  0, these stocks should become relatively more attractive as they all yield 2.4%+.


Dividends/Warrants

Well, Captain Obvious will tell you that the Brexit vote was bad news for Financials.   So my BAC warrants have gone from bad to worse. One of my worst investments ever, and I've had some bad ones.

 Div and Warrants   Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   Pct Gain Last Week   June 1 2016 
 BAC-WTA  $4.90 $3.43 $0.00 -30.0% -29.2% -20.6%
 AOD  $7.64 $7.25 $1.43 13.6% 14.6% 17.1%
 JQC  $7.82 $7.95 $0.35 6.2% 8.0% 8.4%
 CSQ  $9.05 $9.82 $1.83 28.8% 30.0% 30.5%
 DSL  $18.41 $18.16 $0.15 -0.5% -0.4% 0.0%
 TGONF  $10.24 $10.00 $1.52 12.5% 13.4% 12.5%
 HIG-WT  $21.24 $35.48 $0.00 67.1% 73.4% 75.7%
 O  $23.44 $65.75 $18.46 259.3% 252.3% 249.0%
 OIBAX  $5.05 $5.73 $2.22 57.4% 57.5% 58.1%
 SJT  $8.75 $7.20 $0.19 -15.6% -12.8% -14.4%
 GLDI  $10.68 $10.78 $0.12 2.0% 1.2% 0.0%
 Totals  5.4% 6.6% 9.0%
But it is interesting that GLDI and O held up well during the week. Gold and Real Estate.

Have a great weekend everyone,  I gotta run as we're heading out!
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