| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change |
| CRME | 4.46 | 0.49 | -89% |
| CECO | 21.19 | 7.00 | -67% |
| SCEI | 4.12 | 1.61 | -61% |
| AMED | 33.66 | 14.68 | -56% |
| PWER | 7.69 | 3.81 | -50% |
| UIS | 32.50 | 17.66 | -46% |
| MPAA | 13.81 | 7.64 | -45% |
| VNDA | 7.66 | 4.41 | -42% |
| IDCC | 45.45 | 27.19 | -40% |
| ASTX | 2.64 | 1.59 | -40% |
| CPLA | 49.57 | 30.19 | -39% |
| TNAV | 10.24 | 6.59 | -36% |
| GTAT | 9.65 | 6.27 | -35% |
| OSK | 34.95 | 22.83 | -35% |
| AFAM | 36.14 | 24.08 | -33% |
| CHKE | 17.96 | 12.40 | -31% |
| UNTD | 5.79 | 4.08 | -30% |
| GNI | 90.89 | 64.81 | -29% |
| SNDK | 48.99 | 35.89 | -27% |
| VECO | 48.90 | 36.00 | -26% |
| PETS | 14.07 | 11.07 | -21% |
| STRA | 115.42 | 91.78 | -20% |
| ARO | 25.90 | 20.69 | -20% |
| GME | 26.37 | 21.09 | -20% |
| TSRA | 18.40 | 15.40 | -16% |
| APOL | 39.80 | 33.75 | -15% |
| IPXL | 26.46 | 22.45 | -15% |
| HRB | 16.84 | 14.48 | -14% |
| LPS | 27.85 | 24.81 | -11% |
| DLX | 25.71 | 22.98 | -11% |
| TER | 17.81 | 16.03 | -10% |
| USMO | 13.82 | 12.85 | -7% |
| EME | 30.00 | 28.69 | -4% |
| PRSC | 14.03 | 13.43 | -4% |
| PPD | 65.94 | 66.50 | 1% |
| RIGL | 7.82 | 8.01 | 2% |
| VPHM | 19.72 | 20.27 | 3% |
| DELL | 15.27 | 15.82 | 4% |
| MFW | 24.04 | 26.00 | 8% |
| MRX | 34.75 | 37.66 | 8% |
| PDLI | 5.70 | 6.40 | 12% |
| CMTL | 27.07 | 30.78 | 14% |
| RTN | 46.95 | 53.68 | 14% |
| MSFT | 24.84 | 30.65 | 23% |
| CNU | 5.05 | 6.38 | 26% |
| POZN | 5.78 | 7.45 | 29% |
| NSR | 26.40 | 35.21 | 33% |
| LO | 94.67 | 130.57 | 38% |
| AGX | 9.52 | 13.85 | 45% |
Not sure what else to say but yuck.
Overall the picture isn't purty either:
| Average of Percent Change | ||
| Date | Total | IWV |
| 1/6/2006 | 16.0% | 10.9% |
| 2/17/2006 | 21.2% | 14.6% |
| 3/29/2006 | 13.0% | 9.6% |
| 4/7/2006 | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| 5/12/2006 | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| 5/31/2006 | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| 6/30/2006 | 22.4% | 20.0% |
| 7/31/2006 | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| 8/31/2006 | 13.0% | 13.3% |
| 9/28/2006 | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| 10/27/2006 | 10.3% | 12.0% |
| 11/29/2006 | -0.3% | 4.8% |
| 12/28/2006 | -6.9% | 3.4% |
| 1/26/2007 | -10.2% | -6.6% |
| 2/27/2007 | -3.7% | -1.0% |
| 3/26/2007 | -9.8% | -5.5% |
| 4/27/2007 | -10.9% | -5.0% |
| 5/29/2007 | -11.5% | -6.3% |
| 7/3/2007 | -30.0% | -15.6% |
| 7/30/2007 | -19.9% | -11.5% |
| 8/30/2007 | -12.5% | -8.7% |
| 9/27/2007 | -19.0% | -18.2% |
| 11/2/2007 | -40.4% | -34.3% |
| 11/28/2007 | -40.1% | -38.3% |
| 12/28/2007 | -36.3% | -40.0% |
| 1/25/2008 | -36.4% | -35.9% |
| 2/26/2008 | -51.7% | -41.5% |
| 3/24/2008 | -40.9% | -36.8% |
| 4/25/2008 | -25.6% | -31.0% |
| 5/28/2008 | -22.2% | -33.6% |
| 7/2/2008 | -11.7% | -25.3% |
| 7/29/2008 | -10.5% | -20.9% |
| 8/29/2008 | -13.8% | -17.9% |
| 9/26/2008 | -4.3% | -10.0% |
| 10/31/2008 | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| 11/26/2008 | 50.9% | 27.7% |
| 12/26/2008 | 48.9% | 32.3% |
| 1/23/2009 | 59.3% | 36.4% |
| 2/27/2009 | 92.8% | 55.6% |
| 3/27/2009 | 85.8% | 48.1% |
| 4/24/2009 | 69.7% | 45.8% |
| 5/29/2009 | 31.8% | 22.8% |
| 6/29/2009 | 21.3% | 24.0% |
| 7/29/2009 | 19.5% | 15.9% |
| 8/28/2009 | 7.4% | 8.8% |
| 9/25/2009 | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| 10/30/2009 | 22.7% | 18.3% |
| 11/27/2009 | 24.3% | 13.6% |
| 12/31/2009 | 23.7% | 18.1% |
| 1/22/2010 | 19.0% | 20.6% |
| 2/26/2010 | 18.6% | 23.6% |
| 3/25/2010 | 10.0% | 15.4% |
| 4/23/2010 | 7.1% | 11.4% |
| 5/28/2010 | 19.3% | 25.4% |
| 6/29/2010 | 16.7% | 25.7% |
| 7/29/2010 | 5.4% | 20.1% |
| 9/2/2010 | 7.3% | 10.1% |
| 9/24/2010 | -4.3% | 0.3% |
| 10/29/2010 | -2.9% | 10.4% |
| 11/26/2010 | -8.5% | 1.4% |
| 1/3/2011 | -11.4% | 0.1% |
| 1/28/2011 | -7.6% | 4.9% |
| 2/25/2011 | -5.5% | 5.0% |
| 3/24/2011 | -4.4% | 7.4% |
| 4/21/2011 | -16.0% | 3.2% |
| 5/27/2011 | -8.0% | 3.4% |
| 6/24/2011 | -4.8% | 8.4% |
| 7/29/2011 | -4.2% | 6.9% |
| 8/26/2011 | 9.1% | 17.9% |
| 9/30/2011 | 19.3% | 22.8% |
| 10/28/2011 | 1.1% | 7.6% |
| 11/25/2011 | 15.2% | 19.4% |
| 12/29/2011 | 6.9% | 9.3% |
| 1/27/2012 | -1.5% | 4.1% |
| 2/24/2012 | -4.3% | 0.1% |
| 3/23/2012 | -7.5% | -2.0% |
| 4/27/2012 | -3.0% | -2.5% |
| Grand Total | 4.7% | 5.3% |
What is particularly distressing is that the past 16 portfolios have all "lost" and the open 12 portfolios are losing as well. That is a long losing streak and does make you really wonder whether the MFI works still? And it isn't just me, Steve Alexander is struggling as well. His open recommendations are down 6% (my open is up 1.5% and Russell is 7.9%, so about same pct) and overall since he started is down 1.6% per stock.
Here is where you'd be with $100,000 initial investment in the first 12 months of 2006:
| Category | Value |
| Total | 111,480 |
| Total New | 102,615 |
| Total Dividend | 219,414 |
| Total Russell 3K | 121,745 |
Again, the dividend approach (2.6% or greater) has been the "best". But in the "what have you done for me lately" heading, open divvy stocks are up on average 1.7%, so very close to the overall MFI open average.
As you can tell, I am not exactly a fan right now. Good luck to everyone who has stuck with it.
Posts
3 comments:
Thanks for the update, Marsh.
Fundamentally, the MFI approach makes so much sense to me. This long trend of underwhelming performance is truly disappointing.
Please keep us updated.
I am totally disillusioned by MFI when I find out that GNI is on the official list. I guess the computer doesn't take into account that it's a trust that's going to dissolve in 2015. It's treated as a perpetuity.
MFI is mechanical and thus doesn't consider additional facts about stocks like GNI or some of these bio techs that get a one time royalty payment. You think a person could "weed" those out and out-perform. But Steve at Magic Formula Investing is trying to do that and is also struggling.
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