My portfolio is doing great. I am up 13% year-to-date overall. My dividend portfolio is a bit worse, up 10% which is dead-even with the Russell 3000. And I feel good about that. Regarding other benchmarks, my MFI Index rallied a bit after my posting earlier this week and is up 10.4% so far.
Here is my current dividend portfolio:
|Stock||Shares||Avg Cost||Current Price||Dividends Received||Pct Change||R3K Change||Diff|
|IRR Since 12/31/10||14.6%|
You will note a couple of changes since my last posting. On the dividend side I sold MNDO at $2.35. In retrospect, that was early as they spent most of yesterday around $2.42. Then I did buy back all of the STD I sold in January at $7.78, which ended up being a better price than my sale (so I felt good about that).
On the non-dividend side, I made two buys during the sell-off on Wednesday, CJES and UIS (MFI stocks). They are both up over 6% since my buys (I feel good about that as well).
I am actually sitting on quite a bit of cash right now. I will likely stay in cash as I don't see any compelling stocks to buy right now. I do expect the markets to keep their upwards momentum for another month (early April). The market invariably seems to go up the last month that people can fund their IRAs. I will look to sell some positions in the next 30 days, with the most likely candidates being UIS, CJES and CVI... which are three non-dividend stocks I bought on a speculative basis (CVI is down about 5% for me). I am also thinking about selling SLF, which is a large dividend position for me. I am pretty long life insurance (with SLF, GNW and LNC). I do worry about a dividend cut at SLF as they seem to be struggling in today's low interest rate environment and they are not as "cheap" (as a function of price to book value) as the other two.
Watch List (aka The Big Five)
I do have some stocks I am thinking about buying or adding to my positions.
- FCX - They have dropped from about $47 to $38.78. I still think this is a premier metals play (and they recently bumped their dividend). If they drop another 5% I will almost surely double my position.
- PGR - this is Progressive Auto Insurance. There is not a more savvy insurance company out there. They are a bit pricey, but they have a 2% dividend and in my mind are primed to be taking market share from State Farm and Allstate over the next 5 years, and be profitable doing it as they understand the risks better (they are at $21.27 today... so if they sell-off to around $20 I will likely buy-in big).
- TEVA - I bought this Israeli pharma about 5 years ago and did quite well. The stock has pulled back a lot to $44.90. They pay almost a 2% dividend and as the patent cliffs continue for the branded pharmas, companies like TEVA will benefit.
- WAG - If Buffett is buying a stock, you have to at least think about it. They are at $33.70 and have a 2.9% dividend. In my MFI rankings they are #575 with a 13% earnings yield and 26$ ROIC. I think if they can move up to the top 400 I need to consider as a long-term play on the aging of America.
- WY - Lumber should be anther great inflation hedge (better than gold in so many ways). This is not only an inflation hedge, but a play on the inevitable housing recovery. The stock is around $21 and pays a 2.9% dividend.
Non Dividend Commentary
Here is some commentary on my non-dividend holdings:
- RIMM - I bought the flailing Blackberry maker after I saw David Einhorn and Prem Watsa were in it big time. So far they have been a "house of pain". I plan to hold for a year to see if they can hit bottom and start moving up again.
- NEP - Arghhh! This is the last of my Chinese stocks and life would not be complete if I didn't get bad news on them as well. Their trading was suspended as the SEC made some comments about company money finding it's way to executive pockets.
- LYSCF - this is a recent buy in my IRA as a rare earth play. They shot up 10% yesterday. It is not a stock for the faint of heart.
- TROX - I wrote an extended piece on this stock (I picked from Seth Klarman portfolio). I am thrilled with it so far (up about 18%) and I will hold through their catalysts (getting listed on NYSE and completing merger and getting off-shore).
- CVI - this is an inexpensive refiner (18% earnings yield) that Caril Ichan offered $30 for. They are under $28 and I would not be surprised to see some other companies looking at them.
- GNW - continues to be one of my favorite stocks, leveraged to US recovery like a BAC. They trade at $9 (26% of book value) and they are trading at 6x forward earnings. Seth Klarman is in there as well and I think GNW has a lot of upward potential (they were above $30 pre-crisis).
That is pretty much it. I will keep everyone informed on how things go. Have a great Spring Weekend!