Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Going Shopping

Jim Jubak is one of the financial reporters that I read. He had a thought-provoking article yesterday suggesting that Christmas (and retail in general) will likely be better than people are currently thinking (5 stocks for your holiday shopping). He goes on to list his five retail picks (COH, AAPL, FDO, BBY and SKS).

That got me thinking whether I need a retail stock in my portfolio. I do have CHKE, which is certainly a 1st derivative of retail. But do I need something direct? Per the lists, the best candidates are ARO, BKE, GPS, JCG amd KIRK. Here are my calcs for my fab five:

Category ARO GPS KIRK bke JCG
Operating Income After Depreciation 411.45 1,958.00 54.15 198.32 278.21
Minority Interest - Income Account - - - - -
Income for Calculation 411.45 1,958.00 54.15 198.32 278.21
Diluted Shares Outstanding 94.589 651.000 20.636 47.059 65.917
Share Price 24.18 19.13 13.11 29.25 31.23
Market Cap Calc 2,287.16 12,453.63 270.54 1,376.48 2,058.59
Preferred Capital - - - - -
Debt in Current Liabilities - - - - 49.23
Long-Term Debt - - - - -
Cash and Short-Term Investments 297.47 1,721.00 65.69 123.46 340.49
Excess Cash 297.47 1,721.00 65.69 123.46 340.49
Enterprise Value 1,989.70 10,732.63 204.85 1,253.01 1,767.33












Property Plant and Equipment - Net 273.21 2,565.00 39.66 168.05 188.48
Receivables - - 3.48 9.08 -
Inventories 215.46 1,632.00 43.41 108.68 219.53
Other Current Assests 72.19 700.00 10.62 20.29 37.08
Working Cash - - - - -
Accounts Payable 140.95 1,141.00 18.42 38.61 131.31
Current Liabilities - Other 114.16 872.00 21.88 33.92 90.16
Invested Capital 305.74 2,884.00 56.87 233.55 223.61
Earnings Yield 21% 18% 26% 16% 16%
ROIC 135% 68% 95% 85% 124%


I guess if I had to pick just one, I'd go with ARO if it was based purely on the numbers. If I were to stick with looking for dividends, BKE with its 2.9% yield would have to be the pick.

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