New 7/29/10 Portfolio

I just initiated my 7/29/2010 tracking portfolio, which is a list of top 50 stocks > 100m. I also have two subsets of the larger portfolio, (1) stocks new to list in past year and (2) stocks with yields > 2.4%. For these three portfolios, here is how you would be doing if you started with 100k spread out evenly in 12 months of 2006:

Date	General	Russell 3000	New	High Yield
8/28/2009	7,589	7,756	7,652	11,539
9/25/2009	7,681	7,559	10,655	10,505
10/30/2009	7,062	7,617	6,139	11,393
11/27/2009	7,916	7,130	7,594	14,112
12/31/2009	8,672	7,618	9,447	12,382
1/22/2010	9,309	7,976	7,142	19,588
2/26/2010	8,518	8,299	9,832	19,177
3/25/2010	8,438	7,850	7,039	16,748
4/23/2010	9,802	8,544	10,975	19,799
5/28/2010	9,498	7,903	8,332	19,105
6/29/2010	7,915	8,270	9,757	15,391
7/29/2010	8,521	7,928	8,392	14,457
Total	100,921	94,450	102,957	184,196

Finally here are the "new" stocks this month:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change
SNDK	43.65	43.7	0%
PETS	15.81	15.95	1%
LIWA	8.62	8.73	1%
GRMN	28.55	28.51	0%
COCO	9.31	9.1	-2%
csgs	19.61	18.86	-4%

And here are the High Yield Stocks:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change
VALU	14.17	13.9	-1.9%
UNTD	6.42	6.32	-1.6%
USMO	14.66	14.83	1.2%
RTN	46.67	46.27	-0.9%
LO	75.8	76.24	0.6%
GRMN	28.55	28.51	-0.1%
HRB	15.45	15.68	1.5%

Might be time to buy Garmin... it is on both lists!

Current Holdings

Here is my current portfolio:

Symbol	Initial Price	Current Price	Avg of Gain	Avg of IWV Gain
CCME	$10.31	$10.70	6.2%	0.0%
CEL	$25.75	$26.85	4.3%	3.7%
CEU	$3.91	$3.87	-1.1%	1.3%
CF	$89.45	$80.13	-10.4%	0.7%
CHKE	$18.09	$19.15	7.2%	2.4%
CMFO	$4.66	$4.58	-1.4%	3.9%
CSKI	$9.87	$10.70	8.4%	2.5%
FLL	$3.15	$3.15	0.0%	-0.7%
IPXL	$19.23	$16.08	-16.4%	2.3%
KSW	$3.48	$2.79	-16.9%	2.5%
NEWN	$7.13	$6.10	-12.4%	-3.5%
PM	$44.35	$50.66	15.6%	1.0%
PRSC	$13.18	$14.11	7.1%	1.1%
RAI	$53.55	$57.08	10.0%	-3.3%
TTT	$9.60	$11.78	23.4%	10.9%
UNTD	$5.78	$6.30	9.4%	3.9%
UTA	$6.53	$6.30	0.1%	3.1%
VALU	$14.70	$15.07	2.5%	3.0%
VALV	$6.46	$7.50	16.1%	0.5%
Grand Total	$14.97	$15.34	2.4%	2.2%

Still 27% in cash.

Here is my performance year by year verses Russell 3000. Note that some of the earlier years, the Russell 3000 doesn't match the annual gains as the number reflects my timing of putting money into MFI.

MFI Annual Performance
	ITD	Annual
2006	10.74%	10.74%
2007	-6.57%	-15.63%
2008	-41.60%	-37.50%
2009	0.71%	72.47%
2010	-7.20%	-7.86%
IWV Annual Performance
	ITD	Annual
2006	11.23%	11.23%
2007	4.65%	-5.91%
2008	-30.54%	-33.63%
2009	-13.95%	23.87%
2010	-14.20%	-0.29%

Obviously the -7.86% this year is distressing.

Quick Update

A nice week for a change. My huge sell-off back on June 28th was still the "right" move as those stocks are down a composite 2.1% (thought they were down 7% last weekend). When I made the move, I think that placed me about 60% in cash. I have steadily been putting it back in and am now 27% in cash. The stocks I have bought, are up 6.9% while the Russell 3000 (matching the purchase dates) is up 3.1%. Here is my most recent chart:


A chunk of my "new" money has been going into "safer" stocks with decent dividends like UNTD, CEL, CHKE and PM. But I have used the "barbell" approach as my other money has gone to riskier stocks, namely the Chinese names of UTA, NEWN, CCME, CSKI, CEU and CMFO... all stocks I had held during my sell-off.

I almost bought DLX as part of my dividend stocks, but I was trying to reduce the # of eggs in my basket. They had great earnings this week and have shot up about 10%.

The stock that really has me wondering of late is IPXL. They hit the screen 5/7 at 16.66. They promptly shot up to over $21. Now they are at $16.07, on no news. I do wonder if some buyers/sellers have a way of tracking generic sales and whether someone is taking generic market share. I keep thinking about buying, but will likely abstain.

There is no doubt that MFI continues to underperform, even as the market has bounced off its lows. Look at my open portfolios in my monthly tracking:

Date	Total	IWV
7/29/2009	18.6%	16.2%
8/28/2009	5.7%	9.9%
9/25/2009	4.3%	7.7%
10/30/2009	7.3%	9.3%
11/27/2009	3.8%	3.8%
12/31/2009	-0.1%	0.6%
1/22/2010	-0.2%	2.5%
2/26/2010	-0.6%	1.0%
3/25/2010	-8.5%	-4.7%
4/23/2010	-14.0%	-9.4%
5/28/2010	-3.4%	0.8%
6/29/2010	3.4%	5.9%

Note that only the oldest portfolio is beating the Russell 3000. Then look at the open stocks in my mechanical portfolios:

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
RTN	7/24/09	45.39	49.06	1.00	98.06	1.58	10.3%	14.2%	-3.9%
CBZ	7/31/09	6.54	6.52	-	98.81	1.58	-0.3%	13.3%	-13.6%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	20.89	-	98.81	1.58	49.7%	13.3%	36.4%
DRC	7/31/09	29.11	34.34	-	98.81	1.58	18.0%	13.3%	4.6%
JEC	7/31/09	40.98	39.30	-	98.81	1.58	-4.1%	13.3%	-17.4%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	6.35	-	98.81	1.58	63.2%	13.3%	49.9%
ASGN	7/31/09	4.23	4.97	-	98.81	1.58	17.5%	13.3%	4.2%
AGX	8/7/09	12.35	8.71	-	98.81	1.58	-29.5%	13.3%	-42.8%
BBND	8/7/09	4.00	3.20	-	98.81	1.58	-20.0%	13.3%	-33.3%
LHCG	8/7/09	24.55	21.77	-	98.81	1.58	-11.3%	13.3%	-24.7%
RGR	8/7/09	11.45	15.92	0.28	98.81	1.58	41.5%	13.3%	28.1%
PRIM	8/7/09	6.95	6.77	0.08	100.79	1.58	-1.5%	11.1%	-12.6%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	1.58	26.9%	11.1%	15.8%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	3.87	-	102.96	1.58	-24.1%	8.8%	-32.9%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	2.56	-	102.96	1.58	-15.8%	8.8%	-24.6%
CMFO	8/28/09	4.55	4.58	-	102.96	1.58	0.7%	8.8%	-8.1%
NAVR	9/4/09	1.79	2.40	-	102.60	1.58	34.1%	9.1%	24.9%
WTW	9/11/09	26.00	26.78	0.53	104.77	1.58	5.0%	6.9%	-1.9%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	5.49	-	106.72	1.58	47.6%	4.9%	42.6%
ESI	10/30/09	90.35	85.44	-	103.56	1.07	-5.4%	7.6%	-13.1%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	29.45	-	103.56	1.07	7.4%	7.6%	-0.3%
APOL	11/6/09	55.99	49.27	-	107.13	1.07	-12.0%	4.1%	-16.1%
CBST	11/6/09	17.60	21.73	-	107.13	1.07	23.5%	4.1%	19.4%
SNTA	11/6/09	3.20	3.01	-	107.13	1.07	-5.9%	4.1%	-10.0%
IMMU	11/6/09	3.61	3.28	-	107.13	1.07	-9.1%	4.1%	-13.2%
PBH	11/13/09	6.95	7.48	-	109.62	1.07	7.6%	1.7%	5.9%
IDCC	11/20/09	23.56	27.26	-	109.43	1.07	15.7%	1.9%	13.8%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	5.96	0.50	109.57	1.07	-2.6%	1.7%	-4.3%
CBPO	12/4/09	9.06	11.07	-	111.01	1.07	22.2%	0.4%	21.8%
XOMA	12/4/09	0.72	0.34	-	111.01	1.07	-53.2%	0.4%	-53.7%
Valv	12/31/09	5.15	7.50	-	111.44	0.48	45.6%	-0.5%	46.1%
RAI	1/15/10	53.81	57.08	0.90	113.64	0.48	7.7%	-2.4%	10.2%
TRMS	1/15/10	2.45	2.21	-	113.64	0.48	-9.8%	-2.4%	-7.4%
SAI	1/15/10	18.90	16.98	-	113.64	0.48	-10.2%	-2.4%	-7.7%
NATH	1/28/10	14.70	15.97	-	108.57	0.48	8.6%	2.1%	6.5%
SMED	2/5/10	6.74	4.54	-	106.66	0.48	-32.6%	4.0%	-36.6%
SPMD	2/5/10	36.63	19.11	-	106.66	0.48	-47.8%	4.0%	-51.8%
UIS	2/5/10	34.25	23.79	-	106.66	0.48	-30.5%	4.0%	-34.5%
QKLS	2/12/10	5.69	4.80	-	108.04	0.48	-15.6%	2.6%	-18.3%
MGIC	2/12/10	1.78	2.43	-	108.04	0.48	36.5%	2.6%	33.9%
ESIC	2/19/10	2.07	2.33	-	111.14	0.48	12.6%	-0.2%	12.8%
ODSY	2/19/10	17.89	26.23	-	111.14	0.48	46.6%	-0.2%	46.8%
HRB	2/26/10	17.28	15.23	0.15	110.74	0.48	-11.0%	0.1%	-11.1%
TNDM	2/26/10	16.12	13.05	-	110.74	0.48	-19.0%	0.1%	-19.2%
DEXO	2/26/10	29.80	17.77	-	110.74	0.48	-40.4%	0.1%	-40.5%
AFAM	3/5/10	35.52	24.98	-	114.25	0.48	-29.7%	-2.9%	-26.7%
DNB	3/5/10	69.95	70.34	-	114.25	0.48	0.6%	-2.9%	3.5%
SNTS	3/5/10	4.87	2.60	-	114.25	0.48	-46.6%	-2.9%	-43.7%
KIRK	3/12/10	20.11	17.82	-	115.46	0.48	-11.4%	-4.0%	-7.4%
PRSC	3/12/10	14.18	14.11	-	115.46	0.48	-0.5%	-4.0%	3.5%
QDEL	3/25/10	13.73	11.98	-	116.58	-	-12.7%	-5.3%	-7.5%
SVA	4/9/10	5.83	4.31	-	119.55	-	-26.1%	-7.6%	-18.4%
VALU	4/9/10	22.07	15.07	3.00	119.55	-	-18.1%	-7.6%	-10.5%
BDSI	4/16/10	4.12	2.29	-	119.36	-	-44.4%	-7.5%	-36.9%
LOV	4/23/10	3.45	3.23	-	121.81	-	-6.4%	-9.4%	3.0%
MD	4/23/10	57.02	47.52	-	121.81	-	-16.7%	-9.4%	-7.3%
ABC	4/23/10	31.13	30.53	-	121.81	-	-1.9%	-9.4%	7.4%
SNDK	4/30/10	39.84	41.43	-	121.81	-	4.0%	-9.4%	13.3%
OSK	4/30/10	38.62	31.98	-	121.81	-	-17.2%	-9.4%	-7.8%
GXDX	5/7/10	27.89	17.52	-	111.26	-	-37.2%	-0.8%	-36.4%
IPXL	5/7/10	16.66	16.08	-	111.26	-	-3.5%	-0.8%	-2.7%
SOHU	5/7/10	44.19	45.04	-	111.26	-	1.9%	-0.8%	2.7%
CHOP	5/14/10	6.54	5.72	-	113.89	-	-12.5%	-3.1%	-9.5%
LIWA	5/14/10	8.24	8.79	-	113.89	-	6.7%	-3.1%	9.7%
FLL	5/14/10	3.10	3.15	-	113.89	-	1.6%	-3.1%	4.7%
MRX	5/21/10	22.50	25.74	-	107.71	-	14.4%	2.5%	11.9%
CRXX	6/4/10	1.53	1.50	-	106.82	-	-2.0%	3.4%	-5.3%
DJCO	6/4/10	71.00	72.50	-	106.82	-	2.1%	3.4%	-1.2%
TNAV	6/4/10	8.53	8.98	-	106.82	-	5.3%	3.4%	1.9%
JGBO	6/11/10	8.45	8.75	-	109.68	-	3.6%	0.7%	2.9%
DRWI	6/11/10	5.94	5.65	-	109.68	-	-4.9%	0.7%	-5.5%
SCEI	6/18/10	7.36	5.91	-	111.73	-	-19.7%	-1.2%	-18.5%
SUPG	7/16/10	1.75	1.90	-	106.66	-	8.6%	3.5%	5.1%
						Top 50 Portfolio
						Totals	16.2%	0.9%	15.3%
50.9% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	22.9%	0.3%	22.6%
S&P C			110.41			Open	-1.7%	2.5%	-4.2%

Mechanical Update July 17th 2010

Two new stocks this weekend - DRWI hits the top 30 screen and SUPG hits the top 50 screen. I'd probably consider DRWI if I wasn't so bearish right now. I am about 50% in cash and the MFI stocks I sold June 29th are down about 7% since we parted ways.

Here is a snapshot of open top 30 mechanical stocks... it isn't pretty of late. Stocks added in 2010 are down an average of 10.4%.

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
GIGM	7/24/09	4.98	2.25	-	98.06	1.58	-54.8%	10.4%	-65.2%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	18.34	-	98.81	1.58	31.5%	9.5%	21.9%
BR	7/31/09	17.27	20.13	0.42	98.81	1.58	19.0%	9.5%	9.5%
LO	7/31/09	73.72	73.53	3.00	98.81	1.58	3.8%	9.5%	-5.7%
ITWO	8/7/09	14.36	19.73	-	101.20	1.58	37.4%	7.0%	30.4%
BKE	8/14/09	26.54	27.68	2.20	100.79	1.58	12.6%	7.4%	5.2%
GTLS	8/14/09	20.73	15.41	-	100.79	1.58	-25.7%	7.4%	-33.1%
PRIM	8/14/09	6.95	6.05	0.08	100.79	1.58	-11.9%	7.4%	-19.3%
SEPR	8/14/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	1.58	26.9%	7.4%	19.5%
PVSW	8/14/09	5.00	4.66	-	100.79	1.58	-6.8%	7.4%	-14.2%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	3.94	-	102.96	1.58	-22.7%	5.1%	-27.9%
cytk	8/28/09	3.04	2.27	-	103.38	1.58	-25.3%	4.7%	-30.0%
jcom	8/28/09	22.14	21.94	-	103.38	1.58	-0.9%	4.7%	-5.6%
AMED	9/4/09	35.00	26.02	-	102.06	1.58	-25.7%	6.1%	-31.7%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	5.01	-	106.72	1.58	34.7%	1.4%	33.3%
MHP	9/25/09	23.67	29.33	0.46	104.45	1.07	25.9%	3.1%	22.7%
AGX	10/16/09	12.50	8.84	-	108.89	1.07	-29.3%	-1.1%	-28.2%
BBND	10/30/09	3.70	3.05	-	103.56	1.07	-17.6%	4.0%	-21.6%
FLR	10/30/09	44.42	42.79	-	103.56	1.07	-3.7%	4.0%	-7.7%
RGR	10/30/09	10.62	14.55	0.28	103.56	1.07	39.6%	4.0%	35.6%
RTN	10/30/09	45.28	47.73	0.69	103.56	1.07	6.9%	4.0%	2.9%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	28.85	-	103.56	1.07	5.2%	4.0%	1.2%
immu	11/6/09	3.61	3.04	-	107.13	1.07	-15.8%	0.6%	-16.3%
cbst	11/6/09	17.60	21.37	-	107.13	1.07	21.4%	0.6%	20.9%
snta	11/6/09	3.20	2.71	-	107.13	1.07	-15.3%	0.6%	-15.9%
CNU	11/13/09	3.10	3.41	-	109.62	1.07	10.0%	-1.7%	11.7%
IDCC	11/20/09	23.56	26.44	-	109.43	1.07	12.2%	-1.6%	13.8%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	5.95	0.50	109.57	1.07	-2.7%	-1.7%	-1.0%
ARO	12/4/09	28.95	43.02	-	111.01	1.07	48.6%	-3.0%	51.6%
CBPO	12/4/09	9.06	11.64	-	111.01	1.07	28.5%	-3.0%	31.4%
VALV	12/31/09	5.15	6.20	-	111.44	0.48	20.4%	-3.9%	24.2%
SMED	2/5/10	6.74	4.66	-	106.66	0.48	-30.9%	0.5%	-31.3%
SPMD	2/5/10	36.63	17.50	-	106.66	0.48	-52.2%	0.5%	-52.7%
XOMA	2/5/10	0.42	0.39	-	106.66	0.48	-6.9%	0.5%	-7.3%
MGIC	2/19/10	1.77	2.34	-	111.14	0.48	32.2%	-3.6%	35.8%
UIS	2/26/10	34.91	20.51	-	110.74	0.48	-41.2%	-3.3%	-38.0%
SNTS	3/5/10	4.87	2.51	-	114.25	0.48	-48.5%	-6.2%	-42.2%
PRSC	3/12/10	14.18	12.40	-	115.46	0.48	-12.6%	-7.2%	-5.3%
WTW	3/19/10	25.20	26.43	-	115.97	-	4.9%	-8.0%	12.9%
QDEL	3/25/10	13.73	12.09	-	116.58	-	-11.9%	-8.5%	-3.4%
BDSI	4/16/10	4.12	2.31	-	119.36	-	-43.9%	-10.6%	-33.3%
ABC	4/23/10	31.13	32.14	-	121.81	-	3.2%	-12.4%	15.7%
APOL	4/30/10	57.41	45.57	-	118.81	-	-20.6%	-10.2%	-10.4%
SVA	4/30/10	5.79	4.36	-	118.81	-	-24.7%	-10.2%	-14.5%
OSK	4/30/10	38.62	31.02	-	118.81	-	-19.7%	-10.2%	-9.5%
VPHM	5/7/10	12.06	10.91	-	111.26	-	-9.5%	-4.1%	-5.4%
CHOP	5/14/10	6.54	5.18	-	113.89	-	-20.8%	-6.3%	-14.4%
MRX	5/21/10	22.50	23.68	-	107.71	-	5.2%	-1.0%	6.2%
CRXX	6/4/10	1.53	1.42	-	106.82	-	-7.2%	-0.1%	-7.0%
TNAV	6/4/10	8.53	8.49	-	106.82	-	-0.5%	-0.1%	-0.3%
JGBO	6/11/10	8.45	7.98	-	109.68	-	-5.6%	-2.8%	-2.8%
VALU	6/11/10	17.84	15.20	-	109.68	-	-14.8%	-2.8%	-12.0%
DRWI	7/16/10	5.23	5.23	-	106.66	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
						Totals	16.8%	4.2%	12.6%
53.7% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	28.5%	6.5%	22.0%
S&P C			106.66			Open	-3.8%	0.1%	-3.9%