Last Day of 2009/Decade

Wow, another decade has flown by, seems like just yesterday we were worried about Y2K. I am traveling still, so have limited access to my files. However, (gnashing of teeth) my early selling of stocks once again cost me. I mentioned about 10 days ago that I sold CKSW early as I wanted to get the tax benefit in 2009 (recall I had sold it briefly in the summer and bought it back so it was at a "loss"for me the 2nd time. I sold them at $5.52 and then several days later they gave very good guidance and popped back over $7. That had an opportunity cost of more than a few pennies. Then I sold CSKI early (at $18.54) as I was up 42% and it has been such a volatile stock. But it has been vbolatile in a good way, up to 22.72 this morning.

That being said, I have had a pretty good run while being in windy NH. I was down about 4% vs breakeven back then and now I am under 3%. In the same stretch I have expanded my lead over the Russell 3000 benchmark by about $5,000. However, if I hadn't sold the two stocks early, I'd be just 1.75% from breakeven (gnash).

Here are my current stocks and how they've done since I bought them:

QXM	42%
KHD	43%
WILC	190%
UEPS	56%
CBI	49%
AIRV	27%
CMFO	66%
BR	38%
UTA	34%
LIWA	22%
AMED	38%
CBPO	32%
HCKT	24%
PFE	33%
ENDP	24%
FRX	41%
AGX	15%
IDCC	15%
RTN	15%
QKLS	16%
CEU	15%
BIOC	12%
WTW	14%
BKE	18%
CYTK	10%
PRIM	8%
CF	3%
ESI	3%
KSW	1%
PVSW	-4%
RGR	-4%
TSRA	-6%
QCOR	-9%
JCOM	-11%
GTLS	-14%
WH	-16%
GIGM	-34%
JTX	-19%
CHCG	-51%

Then here is how the stocks I have purchased (some sold) using the mechanical approach (I am phasing completely to this in 2010) have fared:

Still Own	1
		Values
Symbol	Date	Bought	Price	Pct Gain	IWV Gain	Diff
AGX	10/22/2009	$12.31	$14.20	15.3%	3.0%	12.3%
AMED	9/8/2009	$35.86	$49.50	38.0%	9.6%	28.4%
BIOC	7/30/2009	$3.70	$4.13	11.6%	14.9%	-3.3%
BKE	8/17/2009	$26.66	$29.50	18.2%	14.9%	3.3%
BR	7/30/2009	$16.53	$22.74	38.4%	14.9%	23.5%
CBI	7/30/2009	$13.62	$20.33	49.3%	14.9%	34.4%
CBPO	12/4/2009	$9.15	$12.05	31.7%	2.0%	29.7%
CEU	8/26/2009	$5.40	$6.21	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%
CMFO	10/30/2009	$4.30	$7.13	65.8%	9.2%	56.6%
ESI	11/3/2009	$93.61	$96.45	3.0%	8.2%	-5.1%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$32.46	40.5%	20.6%	19.9%
GIGM	7/27/2009	$5.02	$3.30	-34.3%	15.3%	-49.6%
GTLS	8/27/2009	$19.50	$16.77	-14.0%	9.4%	-23.4%
HCKT	5/7/2009	$2.30	$2.84	23.5%	26.2%	-2.7%
IDCC	11/17/2009	$23.62	$27.10	14.7%	1.7%	13.0%
JCOM	9/30/2009	$23.00	$20.48	-11.0%	6.4%	-17.3%
JTX	6/29/2009	$5.55	$4.46	-19.6%	22.8%	-42.4%
	6/30/2009	$5.41	$4.46	-17.5%	23.5%	-41.1%
PFE	6/9/2009	$14.13	$18.50	33.2%	20.6%	12.6%
PRIM	9/30/2009	$7.30	$7.85	7.5%	6.4%	1.2%
PVSW	8/18/2009	$4.96	$4.77	-3.8%	13.8%	-17.6%
QKLS	11/20/2009	$5.75	$6.65	15.7%	3.6%	12.1%
RGR	10/30/2009	$10.59	$10.10	-3.7%	9.2%	-12.9%
RTN	7/27/2009	$45.61	$52.18	15.1%	15.3%	-0.3%
UTA	5/29/2009	$7.90	$10.56	33.7%	23.7%	10.0%
WTW	9/21/2009	$26.00	$29.35	13.6%	5.1%	8.5%
CYTK	12/21/2009	$2.59	$2.85	10.0%	0.7%	9.3%
Average				14.4%	12.1%	2.4%
Still Own	0
		Values
Symbol	Date	Bought	Sold	Pct Gain	IWV Gain	Diff
AHCI	1/5/2009	$1.11	$1.73	55.9%	0.2%	55.7%
CKSW	1/5/2009	$1.99	$5.52	177.4%	23.0%	154.4%
DBTK	3/16/2009	$6.70	$7.05	5.2%	14.7%	-9.5%
DELL	2/23/2009	$8.55	$9.52	11.3%	6.5%	4.9%
	2/27/2009	$8.66	$9.52	10.0%	7.4%	2.5%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$29.08	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%
GME	6/22/2009	$22.64	$25.76	13.8%	24.5%	-10.7%
	6/23/2009	$20.63	$22.65	9.8%	16.5%	-6.7%
PFE	6/5/2009	$14.46	$16.27	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%
RST	5/7/2009	$58.50	$54.00	-15.3%	0.4%	-15.7%
SEPR	8/17/2009	$17.86	$23.09	29.3%	1.4%	27.9%
SOLR	2/23/2009	$4.70	$8.09	72.1%	6.5%	65.7%
UTA	6/23/2009	$8.37	$10.90	30.2%	2.7%	27.5%
VM	6/5/2009	$4.38	$5.18	18.3%	4.5%	13.8%
	6/23/2009	$3.11	$4.33	39.2%	2.7%	36.5%
	6/6/2009	$4.23	$5.18	22.5%	4.5%	18.0%
Average				32.4%	8.6%	23.8%
Open and Closed				21.1%	10.9%	10.2%

Gigm Tanks

I sometimes think I am that guy running through the TNT factory with a lit match. All-in-all, I had a super 2009, up about 72% for MFI and 48% overall, but it seems that the second half of the year I made some bad decisions. Even in the first half, I sold some stocks too early. I know it is mental, after you have a year where you lose over 40%, you tend to be gun shy when it is real money and retirement funds you're talking about.

GIGM was my latest fiasco. I think I mentioned last week that I added some post their announced selling of part of their software. It may still ultimately be the right move, but I could have certainly waited a week and done it cheaper as they must be down 20 to 25%. They finally posted their past 2 quarters of earnings and they were sub-par (UPDATE - GigaMedia posts Q3 loss, sees fall in Q4 Asian rev).

Then I also sold my CSKW a few days early as I thought I was headed out for the rest of the year and I wanted to do it before 1/1 for tax reasons. Then they pop 12% today... sigh. I'd be better off not looking.

Still a decent day and year. I did add a new stock (CYTK) and they went up 10% today, so it is not all bad :).

So here are my current holdings (may be my last post of the year):

QXM	39%
KHD	44%
UEPS	57%
WILC	147%
AIRV	25%
CBI	45%
CMFO	56%
BR	38%
UTA	31%
PFE	34%
AMED	29%
HCKT	20%
CBPO	23%
FRX	40%
ENDP	20%
LIWA	9%
RTN	16%
BIOC	12%
IDCC	11%
BKE	17%
QKLS	12%
WTW	12%
PRIM	12%
JTX	4%
CYTK	10%
CEU	7%
AGX	6%
TSRA	5%
KSW	0%
ESI	0%
PVSW	-1%
RGR	-3%
CF	-3%
GTLS	-11%
JCOM	-16%
QCOR	-20%
WH	-11%
GIGM	-36%
CHCG	-52%

And here is how my "mechanical" stocks have fared:

Still Own	1
		Values
Symbol	Date	Bought	Price	Pct Gain	IWV Gain	Diff
AGX	10/22/2009	$12.31	$13.08	6.2%	2.8%	3.4%
AMED	9/8/2009	$35.86	$46.21	28.9%	9.3%	19.5%
BIOC	7/30/2009	$3.70	$4.14	11.9%	14.6%	-2.7%
BKE	8/17/2009	$26.66	$29.29	17.4%	14.6%	2.8%
BR	7/30/2009	$16.53	$22.73	38.4%	14.6%	23.7%
CBI	7/30/2009	$13.62	$19.81	45.4%	14.6%	30.8%
CBPO	12/4/2009	$9.15	$11.30	23.5%	1.8%	21.7%
CEU	8/26/2009	$5.40	$5.85	8.3%	9.2%	-0.8%
CMFO	10/30/2009	$4.30	$6.74	56.7%	8.9%	47.8%
ESI	11/3/2009	$93.61	$93.55	-0.1%	7.9%	-8.0%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$32.30	39.8%	20.3%	19.5%
GIGM	7/27/2009	$5.02	$3.23	-35.7%	15.1%	-50.7%
GTLS	8/27/2009	$19.50	$17.29	-11.3%	9.1%	-20.4%
HCKT	5/7/2009	$2.30	$2.75	19.6%	25.9%	-6.3%
IDCC	11/17/2009	$23.62	$26.24	11.1%	1.4%	9.6%
JCOM	9/30/2009	$23.00	$19.42	-15.6%	6.1%	-21.7%
JTX	6/29/2009	$5.55	$5.71	2.9%	22.5%	-19.6%
	6/30/2009	$5.41	$5.71	5.6%	23.2%	-17.6%
PFE	6/9/2009	$14.13	$18.61	34.0%	20.3%	13.6%
PRIM	9/30/2009	$7.30	$8.21	12.5%	6.1%	6.4%
PVSW	8/18/2009	$4.96	$4.90	-1.2%	13.5%	-14.7%
QKLS	11/20/2009	$5.75	$6.42	11.7%	3.3%	8.3%
RGR	10/30/2009	$10.59	$10.18	-3.0%	8.9%	-11.9%
RTN	7/27/2009	$45.61	$52.55	15.9%	15.1%	0.8%
UTA	5/29/2009	$7.90	$10.35	31.0%	23.4%	7.6%
WTW	9/21/2009	$26.00	$28.87	11.7%	4.8%	6.9%
CYTK	12/21/2009	$2.59	$2.85	10.0%	0.5%	9.5%
Average				13.9%	11.8%	2.1%
Still Own	0
		Values
Symbol	Date	Bought	Sold	Pct Gain	IWV Gain	Diff
AHCI	1/5/2009	$1.11	$1.73	55.9%	0.2%	55.7%
CKSW	1/5/2009	$1.99	$5.52	177.4%	23.0%	######
DBTK	3/16/2009	$6.70	$7.05	5.2%	14.7%	-9.5%
DELL	2/23/2009	$8.55	$9.52	11.3%	6.5%	4.9%
	2/27/2009	$8.66	$9.52	10.0%	7.4%	2.5%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$29.08	25.9%	11.1%	14.8%
GME	6/22/2009	$22.64	$25.76	13.8%	24.5%	-10.7%
	6/23/2009	$20.63	$22.65	9.8%	16.5%	-6.7%
PFE	6/5/2009	$14.46	$16.27	13.6%	11.2%	2.4%
RST	5/7/2009	$58.50	$54.00	-15.3%	0.4%	-15.7%
SEPR	8/17/2009	$17.86	$23.09	29.3%	1.4%	27.9%
SOLR	2/23/2009	$4.70	$8.09	72.1%	6.5%	65.7%
UTA	6/23/2009	$8.37	$10.90	30.2%	2.7%	27.5%
VM	6/5/2009	$4.38	$5.18	18.3%	4.5%	13.8%
	6/23/2009	$3.11	$4.33	39.2%	2.7%	36.5%
	6/6/2009	$4.23	$5.18	22.5%	4.5%	18.0%
Average				32.4%	8.6%	23.8%
Open and Closed				20.8%	10.7%	10.0%

Mini Comeback?

Well, you know what they say about "the best laid plans"! I got stuck in Bermuda yesterday due to that nasty weather going up the US Seaboard. Won't get to leave until Wednesday as the planes are still pretty backed up.

I have mentioned several times that I like to use my monthly tacking portfolios as a barometer on MFI in general. This is because MFI has proved to be very streaky. It was starting to look like the streak was ending as about a month ago some of the more recent monthly portfolios were starting to lag the benchmark. But they're all ahead again. The most recent 20 months are all leading. I do think the uptick of M&A helped.

No news stocks added to my mechanical portfolios this weekend. The list is becoming relatively static again.

Thought I'd take a look at the performance of bio-tech stocks in my mechanical portfolio. They have outperformed the overall by a bit. Here are the numbers and the individual stocks:

	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
Biotech	36.1%	16.0%	20.2%
Totals Top 30	23.7%	5.4%	18.4%
Totals Top 50	19.7%	1.0%	18.8%

Symbol	Date	Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
OMPI	3/12/08	9.55	4.05	-	131.36	2.08	-57.6%	-46.0%	-11.6%
SCMP	8/31/08	9.50	5.92	-	128.79	2.49	-37.7%	-17.8%	-19.9%
ERES	11/15/08	4.65	6.25	-	86.62	2.31	34.4%	29.2%	5.2%
MAXY	12/8/08	5.80	5.54	-	87.93	2.31	-4.5%	28.9%	-33.4%
TRMS	12/27/08	1.03	3.30	-	87.16	1.59	220.4%	28.3%	192.1%
PTIE	2/21/09	5.41	5.30	-	77.42	1.59	-2.0%	44.4%	-46.4%
QLTI	3/6/09	1.41	4.75	-	68.92	1.59	236.9%	62.2%	174.7%
SRDX	3/6/09	16.87	24.28	-	68.92	1.59	43.9%	62.2%	-18.3%
INFI	4/16/09	5.83	6.29	-	87.08	1.03	7.9%	27.7%	-19.8%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	5.18	-	95.08	1.03	99.2%	17.0%	82.2%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	3.09	-	98.81	0.51	-20.6%	12.1%	-32.6%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	0.51	26.9%	9.8%	17.1%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	2.64	-	102.96	0.51	-13.2%	7.5%	-20.7%
SNTA	11/6/09	3.20	6.40	-	107.13	-	100.0%	2.9%	97.1%
IMMU	11/6/09	3.61	3.11	-	107.13	-	-13.9%	2.9%	-16.7%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	6.97	-	109.57	-	5.1%	0.6%	4.5%
XOMA	12/4/09	0.72	0.64	-	111.01	-	-11.0%	-0.7%	-10.3%