Pardon the pun, but I didn't get the news from CSKI that I had hoped for... instead of coming out with the stellar earning I expected, I got this at 1:51 am (China Sky One Medical, Inc. Delays Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Earnings Conference Call). When a company doesn't have its financial act together, that isn't a vote of confidence and the stock sold off 10% today, which was generally a good up day. It could very well be that the dog ate the 10-K is true and they'll come out in a week or two with the stellar earnings I expect and pop 25%. But I don't think I'll be adding to my position (though if it dropped to single digits I might have to re-think that).
Other than that little snafu my stocks held up quite nicely today. The commodities, FSUMF and TC both went up about 7% as I think investors are starting to realize all that stuff in the ground may be desirable again some day, especially if inflation kicks up.
The other interesting area of my portfolio was the 3 preferred stocks I own: RNR-PC, ARH-PA and ENH-PA. I bought these in the recent financial demise and essentially locked in about a 16% yield on what I believe to be three financially strong companies. I won't get rich quick, but it'll be a nice income stream. They were all up about 6% today as the market starts to recognize their simple-to-understand value. The income isn't enough yet for me to retire, but at 16% it is a start. I have added a bunch of OKS and NRGY in the downturn as well, they both have yields around 10% and then LINE has a yield around 13%.
It is funny, a cynical person on the yahoo board, with the stock market crashing, commented that he felt the entire stock market was a ponzi scheme. I hear the element of truth in what he says, at times it feels like that. But when you take stocks like I have listed above, and they are making real money (not accounting shenanigans) and they pay a chunk in dividends... it clearly isn't a ponzi scheme, it is a joint venture, a partnership... not blatent speculation hoping your stock will "go to the moon"! Of course we all like a little bit of that, but the income stocks and bonds keep you a little more grounded. It isn't all "Mad Money" after all.
Finally (as I get off my soapbox) I see ENH-PA is still yielding 14%. Come own a few shares with me!
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Newest Mechanical Stock - PRO
PRO is the most recent stock in the top 30 listings from the MFI website. Never heard of them? Neither have I. Let us see if they are worthy of consideration of an actual buy. I went back and looked and I have bought 5 stocks simultaneous with the mechanical portfolio: AHCI (+13%), CKSW (+91%), DELL (+16%), SOLR (+41%) and DBTK (-3%).
First the numbers since the website no longer provides
Clearly very good, of course they would not make the top 30 unless they were good. Let us dig behnind the numbers. Hmm, revenues are steadily increasing, always a good sign. They actually did ok in the 4th quarter as the economy fell off a cliff. Operating income is also very steady, between $3.5 and $4.0m each quarter. They have grown cash from $44m to $52m in past year, positive cash flow is also good. No debt and book value grew about 30% in 2008.
Certainly no obviously holes. Let us see how they make their money and what their management are saying. Wow, they dropped 12% on Friday, but on relatively low volume. They are a software company that helps companies determine optimal pricing. Pretty cool, I like the software companies (I own CKSW, DBTK and VSNT). They hold $2 in cash versus their $4.29 share price.
Reading their recent earnings report, they seem to expect revenues to drop about 10%. Probably not unrealistic given the economy.
I think I'll have to put PRO on close watch. $4.29 seems darned reasonable.
In stock news, KHD was down about 21% for me on Friday. It was pretty depressing, they had a lot of cancellations and to make it worse it seems their contract language wasn't very tight.
"The unexpected and sudden project terminations exposed a weakness in certain contract terms and credit insurance instruments relating to some of our customer contracts. We are amending our processes and procedures to remedy those weaknesses.
Yikes! Talk about bolting the door after the horse has escaped.
CSKI will report earnings on Monday evening. I have extremely high expectations, I hope I am not disappointed. I have a lot of CSKI, so we'll see if I am drinking champagne or tap water tomorrow night.
First the numbers since the website no longer provides
| pro | ||
| + | Operating Income After Depreciation | 13.93 |
| - | Minority Interest - Income Account | - |
| = | Income for Calculation | 13.93 |
| Market Cap Yahoo | 110,210 | |
| Share Price | 4.29 | |
| + | Market Cap Calc | 110.21 |
| + | Preferred Capital | - |
| + | Debt in Current Liabilities | - |
| + | Long-Term Debt | - |
| Cash and Short-Term Investments | 51.98 | |
| - | Excess Cash | 42.34 |
| = | Enterprise Value | 67.87 |
| + | Property Plant and Equipment - Net | 2.90 |
| + | Receivables | 16.18 |
| + | Inventories | - |
| + | Other Current Assests | 3.24 |
| + | Working Cash | 9.64 |
| - | Accounts Payable | 1.09 |
| - | Current Liabilities - Other | 27.97 |
| = | Invested Capital | 2.90 |
| Earnings Yield | 21% | |
| ROIC | 480% |
Clearly very good, of course they would not make the top 30 unless they were good. Let us dig behnind the numbers. Hmm, revenues are steadily increasing, always a good sign. They actually did ok in the 4th quarter as the economy fell off a cliff. Operating income is also very steady, between $3.5 and $4.0m each quarter. They have grown cash from $44m to $52m in past year, positive cash flow is also good. No debt and book value grew about 30% in 2008.
Certainly no obviously holes. Let us see how they make their money and what their management are saying. Wow, they dropped 12% on Friday, but on relatively low volume. They are a software company that helps companies determine optimal pricing. Pretty cool, I like the software companies (I own CKSW, DBTK and VSNT). They hold $2 in cash versus their $4.29 share price.
Reading their recent earnings report, they seem to expect revenues to drop about 10%. Probably not unrealistic given the economy.
I think I'll have to put PRO on close watch. $4.29 seems darned reasonable.
In stock news, KHD was down about 21% for me on Friday. It was pretty depressing, they had a lot of cancellations and to make it worse it seems their contract language wasn't very tight.
"The unexpected and sudden project terminations exposed a weakness in certain contract terms and credit insurance instruments relating to some of our customer contracts. We are amending our processes and procedures to remedy those weaknesses.
Yikes! Talk about bolting the door after the horse has escaped.
CSKI will report earnings on Monday evening. I have extremely high expectations, I hope I am not disappointed. I have a lot of CSKI, so we'll see if I am drinking champagne or tap water tomorrow night.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Quick Update
Thought I'd give a quick update on my monthly tracking portfolios. I have had two close (end of February and end of March) since my last update... it has been slightly busy at work. The tracking news is pretty dreary. The february 26th 2008 portfolio was a train wreck. Down a whopping 51.7%. I have to imagine that will be the worst one we'll ever post. As a reminder, I have been creating a tracking portfolio every month since January 2006 that tracks the top 50 stocks > 100m for a year and compares them to the Russell 3000.
March 24 2008 was not much better, down 41% and also beaten by the benchmark. On average the closed portfolios are down 6.9% (so you'd be down more than 15% before considering the 12 open portfolios) and the open portfolios are down an average of 19.3%. Yikes. But February 27 2009 is up 16% thus far... break out the champagne! Or should I say sell, sell, sell!
Compared to the -6.9% drop for closed portfolios, the R3000 is down 4.6% on average. The open R3000 is down 21.4%, so we're pulling ahead a bit in the open portfolios.
For the two that just closed, the bad news stocks are frankly too long to list (though I list them all below). AIRV, EGY, CSGS, USMO and HIRE are some of the few stocks in the green. Below I list the 100 stocks for the two months and the summary of all the portfolios.
Cheers!
March 24 2008 was not much better, down 41% and also beaten by the benchmark. On average the closed portfolios are down 6.9% (so you'd be down more than 15% before considering the 12 open portfolios) and the open portfolios are down an average of 19.3%. Yikes. But February 27 2009 is up 16% thus far... break out the champagne! Or should I say sell, sell, sell!
Compared to the -6.9% drop for closed portfolios, the R3000 is down 4.6% on average. The open R3000 is down 21.4%, so we're pulling ahead a bit in the open portfolios.
For the two that just closed, the bad news stocks are frankly too long to list (though I list them all below). AIRV, EGY, CSGS, USMO and HIRE are some of the few stocks in the green. Below I list the 100 stocks for the two months and the summary of all the portfolios.
Cheers!
| AFCE $8.14 $3.92 -51.8% |
| ACN $35.79 $28.0 -21.8% |
| AIRV $5.0 $5.52 10.4% |
| AEO $22.57 $8.91 -60.5% |
| AVCI $7.31 $2.88 -60.6% |
| BBSI $16.39 $8.14 -50.3% |
| BVF $12.14 $10.79 -11.1% |
| GIB $11.08 $7.05 -36.4% |
| CITP $10.15 $2.0 -80.3% |
| CSGS $11.79 $13.32 13.0% |
| CHCG.OB $2.79 $.55 -80.3% |
| CAST $5.40 $2.65 -50.9% |
| CJR $20.93 $9.58 -54.2% |
| CUTR $12.67 $5.75 -54.6% |
| DTPI $5.69 $2.13 -62.6% |
| FTD $14.29 $14.68 2.7% |
| RAIL $41.51 $14.52 -65.0% |
| GHM $18.68 $7.61 -59.3% |
| HLYS $5.39 $1.30 -75.9% |
| HSII $33.55 $14.0 -58.3% |
| HBMFF.PK$19.90 $4.41 -77.8% |
| ICFI $26.08 $22.55 -13.5% |
| IAR $6.92 $.08 -98.8% |
| IVAC $12.41 $3.97 -68.0% |
| JTX $20.29 $3.19 -84.3% |
| KG $11.03 $6.13 -44.4% |
| KFY $17.84 $8.30 -53.5% |
| LCAV $14.10 $2.07 -85.3% |
| LGTY $10.56 $4.78 -54.7% |
| MMS $37.17 $34.13 -8.2% |
| MDP $45.07 $11.28 -75.0% |
| MSTR $70.49 $33.80 -52.0% |
| NOOF $4.78 $1.32 -72.4% |
| NVTL $11.39 $5.75 -49.5% |
| PACR $16.11 $1.76 -89.1% |
| PMTI $14.05 $6.36 -54.7% |
| PRXI $5.10 $.57 -88.8% |
| PBH $7.92 $4.49 -43.3% |
| RECN $17.13 $13.02 -24.0% |
| SLXP $6.80 $6.49 -4.6% |
| SCSS $5.08 $.20 -96.1% |
| SIMG $4.77 $2.11 -55.8% |
| TZOO $10.44 $5.50 -47.3% |
| TRID $5.52 $1.41 -74.5% |
| USMO $9.83 $10.32 5.0% |
| EGY $4.41 $5.22 18.4% |
| VRGY $19.94 $6.49 -67.5% |
| VPHM $9.23 $4.08 -55.8% |
| WON $1.89 $.05 -97.3% |
| IUSA $7.84 $2.61 -66.7% |
| AIRV $5.32 $5.80 9.0% |
| AEO $17.93 $12.83 -28.4% |
| BBSI $17.35 $9.94 -42.7% |
| BVSN.OB $27.0 $11.50 -57.4% |
| CITP $9.33 $2.49 -73.3% |
| CSGS $11.43 $13.90 21.6% |
| CAST $5.06 $3.10 -38.7% |
| CJR $18.41 $11.24 -38.9% |
| CUTR $14.02 $6.56 -53.2% |
| DLX $18.90 $10.68 -43.5% |
| DEPO $3.0 $2.68 -10.7% |
| DTPI $5.53 $2.55 -53.9% |
| ELNK $7.93 $6.82 -14.0% |
| ENDP $23.46 $17.90 -23.7% |
| FTD $13.78 $14.68 6.5% |
| RAIL $35.37 $19.25 -45.6% |
| GHM $17.46 $10.28 -41.1% |
| HLYS $4.81 $1.63 -66.1% |
| HSII $33.78 $17.87 -47.1% |
| HIRE $10.58 $19.75 86.7% |
| HBMFF.PK$16.12 $5.05 -68.7% |
| ICFI $20.15 $24.26 20.4% |
| IAR $5.29 $.08 -98.4% |
| IVAC $13.46 $5.73 -57.4% |
| JTX $11.77 $4.63 -60.7% |
| KG $9.09 $7.05 -22.4% |
| KFY $17.78 $9.58 -46.1% |
| LCAV $12.90 $3.20 -75.2% |
| LNCR $28.12 $22.29 -20.7% |
| MHP $37.91 $25.05 -33.9% |
| MRX $19.68 $13.06 -33.6% |
| MDP $39.20 $18.63 -52.5% |
| NOOF $4.69 $1.37 -70.8% |
| NVTL $9.98 $6.03 -39.6% |
| OMPI $9.35 $6.06 -35.2% |
| PACR $15.53 $3.62 -76.7% |
| PMTI $15.78 $6.59 -58.2% |
| PCR $36.82 $13.85 -62.4% |
| PRXI $5.79 $.75 -87.0% |
| SCSS $3.93 $.46 -88.3% |
| SIMG $4.92 $2.62 -46.7% |
| BID $29.23 $10.20 -65.1% |
| TSRA $15.02 $12.80 -14.8% |
| TZOO $11.64 $6.45 -44.6% |
| TRID $5.46 $1.52 -72.2% |
| TBI $14.24 $9.05 -36.4% |
| UNTD $10.67 $4.71 -55.9% |
| EGY $4.96 $5.67 14.3% |
| VRGY $18.11 $8.30 -54.2% |
| IUSA $6.64 $3.53 -46.8% |
| Date | Total | IWV |
| 1/6/2006 | 16.0% | 10.9% |
| 2/17/2006 | 21.2% | 14.6% |
| 3/29/2006 | 13.0% | 9.6% |
| 4/7/2006 | 10.3% | 12.1% |
| 5/12/2006 | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| 5/31/2006 | 29.2% | 23.3% |
| 6/30/2006 | 22.4% | 20.0% |
| 7/31/2006 | 19.7% | 17.3% |
| 8/31/2006 | 13.0% | 13.3% |
| 9/28/2006 | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| 10/27/2006 | 10.3% | 12.0% |
| 11/29/2006 | -0.3% | 4.8% |
| 12/28/2006 | -6.9% | 3.4% |
| 1/26/2007 | -10.2% | -6.6% |
| 2/27/2007 | -3.7% | -1.0% |
| 3/26/2007 | -9.8% | -5.5% |
| 4/27/2007 | -10.9% | -5.0% |
| 5/29/2007 | -11.5% | -6.3% |
| 7/3/2007 | -30.0% | -15.6% |
| 7/30/2007 | -19.9% | -11.5% |
| 8/30/2007 | -12.5% | -8.7% |
| 9/27/2007 | -19.0% | -18.2% |
| 11/2/2007 | -40.4% | -34.3% |
| 11/28/2007 | -40.1% | -38.3% |
| 12/28/2007 | -36.3% | -40.0% |
| 1/25/2008 | -36.4% | -35.9% |
| 2/26/2008 | -51.7% | -39.2% |
| 3/24/2008 | -40.9% | -37.4% |
| 4/25/2008 | -33.6% | -40.2% |
| 5/28/2008 | -34.4% | -40.4% |
| 7/2/2008 | -29.8% | -34.7% |
| 7/29/2008 | -34.0% | -35.0% |
| 8/29/2008 | -38.5% | -36.3% |
| 9/26/2008 | -33.4% | -32.5% |
| 10/31/2008 | -14.5% | -14.6% |
| 11/26/2008 | -4.9% | -6.3% |
| 12/26/2008 | -5.7% | -5.5% |
| 1/23/2009 | -0.2% | -1.2% |
| 2/27/2009 | 16.3% | 11.1% |
| 3/27/2009 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grand Total | -11.0% | -9.9% |
| Closed | -6.9% | -4.6% |
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Starting to Work?
My mechanical portfolio is really starting to gain steam. The 27 stocks bought since Nov 21st are up 27.5%. The overall portfolio is down "just" 7.8% (while Magic Diligence portfolio is down more than 20%). Overall the portfolio is outperforming the S&P by 11.4%. Is it starting to be magical again? It was a huge day for SOLR and WFR.
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 2.60 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.72 | -37.9% | -38.7% | 0.8% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 5.57 | - | 136.37 | 2.72 | 9.6% | -37.3% | 47.0% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 2.21 | - | 135.14 | 2.72 | -77.9% | -36.7% | -41.1% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.00 | - | 135.14 | 2.72 | -76.7% | -36.7% | -39.9% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.83 | - | 135.62 | 2.72 | -44.1% | -40.9% | -3.2% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.52 | - | 131.36 | 2.72 | -75.0% | -45.5% | -29.5% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 0.44 | - | 131.36 | 2.72 | -88.1% | -45.5% | -42.6% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 131.36 | 2.72 | -27.3% | -45.5% | 18.1% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 10.26 | 0.12 | 131.36 | 2.08 | -46.6% | -46.0% | -0.7% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 2.26 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -17.5% | -40.4% | 22.8% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 5.95 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -33.7% | -40.4% | 6.6% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 6.92 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -60.3% | -40.4% | -19.9% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 10.68 | 1.00 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -40.3% | -37.8% | -2.6% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 14.97 | 0.70 | 136.89 | 2.08 | 4.9% | -37.8% | 42.7% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 3.53 | - | 136.89 | 2.08 | -33.1% | -37.8% | 4.6% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 25.47 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | -38.0% | -36.1% | -1.9% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 9.64 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | 49.0% | -36.1% | 85.1% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 3.10 | - | 138.48 | 2.08 | -38.4% | -38.5% | 0.1% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 2.39 | - | 139.60 | 2.08 | -61.8% | -39.0% | -22.8% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 18.63 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 2.08 | -43.0% | -38.7% | -4.3% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 6.06 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -14.8% | -38.7% | 23.9% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 30.35 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -30.1% | -38.7% | 8.5% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 6.82 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -26.0% | -38.1% | 12.2% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 2.69 | 1.00 | 137.64 | 2.08 | -15.6% | -38.1% | 22.5% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 16.04 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 2.08 | -37.5% | -39.3% | 1.8% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 6.50 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 40.7% | -33.1% | 73.8% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 14.65 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 32.5% | -33.1% | 65.5% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 27.62 | 1.20 | 126.31 | 1.41 | -9.9% | -33.1% | 23.1% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 4.78 | - | 125.48 | 1.41 | -1.2% | -32.6% | 31.4% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 37.77 | - | 126.16 | 1.41 | -37.6% | -33.0% | -4.6% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 10.56 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -4.0% | -34.7% | 30.7% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 3.77 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -69.6% | -34.7% | -35.0% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 74.00 | 0.10 | 129.37 | 1.41 | -45.0% | -34.7% | -10.3% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 11.93 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -25.1% | -34.7% | 9.6% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.55 | - | 124.42 | 1.41 | -20.3% | -32.1% | 11.8% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 8.88 | - | 126.09 | 1.41 | -57.1% | -33.0% | -24.1% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 8.91 | - | 124.12 | 1.41 | -46.2% | -31.9% | -14.3% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 8.22 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -0.8% | -30.6% | 29.8% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 2.70 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -37.8% | -30.6% | -7.2% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 30.07 | 0.10 | 120.85 | 0.72 | 6.2% | -30.6% | 36.8% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 10.12 | 7.69 | 0.52 | 88.50 | 0.72 | -18.9% | -5.3% | -13.6% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 15.63 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | 7.2% | -5.3% | 12.5% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 2.20 | 0.03 | 93.21 | 0.72 | -39.4% | -10.1% | -29.3% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 18.60 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | 4.7% | -13.4% | 18.1% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 5.03 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -32.0% | -13.4% | -18.6% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 3.03 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -28.5% | -13.4% | -15.1% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 16.41 | 0.40 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -16.7% | -10.7% | -6.0% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 10.28 | 0.02 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -24.3% | -10.7% | -13.6% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 3.52 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 47.3% | 5.4% | 41.9% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 15.41 | 0.10 | 79.52 | 0.72 | 48.4% | 5.4% | 43.0% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.45 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 54.3% | 5.4% | 48.8% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 0.85 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | -29.8% | 5.4% | -35.2% |
| Vclk | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 8.33 | - | 90.09 | 0.72 | 35.0% | -6.9% | 42.0% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 4.90 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 12.1% | -4.7% | 16.8% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 7.17 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 23.6% | -4.7% | 28.3% |
| ESIC | 12/14/08 | 1.13 | 2.00 | - | 88.99 | 0.72 | 77.0% | -5.8% | 82.8% |
| MSO | 12/29/08 | 2.80 | 2.68 | - | 87.16 | - | -4.3% | -4.6% | 0.4% |
| TRMS | 12/29/08 | 1.03 | 1.66 | - | 87.16 | - | 61.2% | -4.6% | 65.8% |
| WFR | 12/29/08 | 13.43 | 19.03 | - | 87.16 | - | 41.7% | -4.6% | 46.3% |
| AHCI | 1/5/09 | 1.15 | 1.28 | - | 92.96 | - | 11.3% | -10.6% | 21.9% |
| CKSW | 1/5/09 | 1.99 | 3.69 | - | 92.96 | - | 85.4% | -10.6% | 96.0% |
| COH | 2/16/09 | 13.97 | 17.76 | - | 82.76 | - | 27.1% | 0.4% | 26.7% |
| DELL | 2/23/09 | 8.41 | 10.35 | - | 77.42 | - | 23.1% | 7.3% | 15.7% |
| SOLR | 2/23/09 | 4.22 | 5.84 | - | 77.42 | - | 38.4% | 7.3% | 31.0% |
| DECK | 3/2/09 | 41.27 | 57.69 | - | 73.93 | - | 39.8% | 12.4% | 27.4% |
| FWLT | 3/2/09 | 15.04 | 19.28 | - | 73.93 | - | 28.2% | 12.4% | 15.8% |
| HCKT | 3/2/09 | 2.56 | 2.05 | - | 73.93 | - | -19.9% | 12.4% | -32.3% |
| MWW | 3/2/09 | 6.59 | 9.12 | - | 73.93 | - | 38.4% | 12.4% | 26.0% |
| PTIE | 3/2/09 | 4.53 | 4.64 | - | 73.93 | - | 2.4% | 12.4% | -10.0% |
| TRLG | 3/2/09 | 10.22 | 12.77 | - | 73.93 | - | 25.0% | 12.4% | 12.5% |
| qlti | 3/9/09 | 1.41 | 1.76 | - | 68.92 | - | 24.8% | 20.6% | 4.2% |
| exbd | 3/9/09 | 12.96 | 15.21 | 0.44 | 68.92 | - | 20.8% | 20.6% | 0.2% |
| FIX | 3/16/09 | 9.73 | 11.00 | 76.09 | - | 13.1% | 9.2% | 3.8% | |
| DBTK | 3/16/09 | 6.65 | 6.90 | - | 76.09 | - | 3.8% | 9.2% | -5.5% |
| LOOP | 3/16/09 | 5.77 | 6.37 | - | 76.09 | - | 10.4% | 9.2% | 1.2% |
| Totals | -7.8% | -19.2% | 11.4% | ||||||
| 68.6% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | Closed | -48.0% | -41.2% | -6.8% | |||||
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Major Milestone
Today I crossed a milestone. In the grand scheme, it isn't impressive but in fact it is a solid comeback. My MFI portfolio has actually finally passed the benchmark Russell 3000. In the grand scheme, that isn't that great, as I am still down about 35%. But looking at it another way, I was WAY behind the benchmark just 4 months ago. So I like the trend. In fact I am up over 50% since then while the benchmark is up about 6%. I'll let you do the math to figure out how far down I was at the time...
CHCG - I know this is a dark horse stock, but they reported earnings this morning and knocked the cover off the ball (China 3C Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Financial Results). The stock was up 24% today (to a whopping 97 cents), but I think that is just the beginning. Think about it:
CKSW was another very interesting stock for me today. They were up about 16% on extremely high volume, 465K shares vs 67k on average. That was their highest volume since July last year. They are up about 75% since I bought them.
TRA - I am kicking myself for selling before the full year. I had bought shares at $18 and $20, but I sold around $23-$24. They are now over $28. I should have known better as my reason for buying them had not gone away. But I hadn't had a profit in a long time and was a bit gun-shy.
CSKI - this is another of my Chinese stock that I have great hopes for. Like CHCG they have strong balance sheet and have already pre-announced a very good 4th quarter but the market seems to have forgotten it. We'll see... I am holding a pretty good chunk.
Tomorrow is another day, we'll see if my portfolio is still above the Russell 3000.
CHCG - I know this is a dark horse stock, but they reported earnings this morning and knocked the cover off the ball (China 3C Group Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2008 Financial Results). The stock was up 24% today (to a whopping 97 cents), but I think that is just the beginning. Think about it:
- They made 51 cents per share in 2008, a 16% increase over 2007
- They have $32m in cash, with a market cap of about $52m (no debt)
- They have a tangible BV of about $67m.
- They seen pretty bullish about 2009
CKSW was another very interesting stock for me today. They were up about 16% on extremely high volume, 465K shares vs 67k on average. That was their highest volume since July last year. They are up about 75% since I bought them.
TRA - I am kicking myself for selling before the full year. I had bought shares at $18 and $20, but I sold around $23-$24. They are now over $28. I should have known better as my reason for buying them had not gone away. But I hadn't had a profit in a long time and was a bit gun-shy.
CSKI - this is another of my Chinese stock that I have great hopes for. Like CHCG they have strong balance sheet and have already pre-announced a very good 4th quarter but the market seems to have forgotten it. We'll see... I am holding a pretty good chunk.
Tomorrow is another day, we'll see if my portfolio is still above the Russell 3000.
Friday, March 20, 2009
Mechanical Portfolio Update
I was asked how I select my mechanical portfolio. It is quite simple. I have been pulling the top 25 (now top 30) stocks every weekend for years. A stock makes the mechanical portfolio if it is in the top 25 screen for the first time in more than a year. I then track the stock against the S&P 500 and sell it after a year. So far, the approach is losing money (as are all other long investing approaches) but is about 8 points better than the S&P. Here is a listing of all the stocks and their performance:
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 2.60 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.72 | -37.9% | -38.7% | 0.8% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 5.57 | - | 136.37 | 2.72 | 9.6% | -37.3% | 47.0% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 2.21 | - | 135.14 | 2.72 | -77.9% | -36.7% | -41.1% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.00 | - | 135.14 | 2.72 | -76.7% | -36.7% | -39.9% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.83 | - | 135.62 | 2.72 | -44.1% | -40.9% | -3.2% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.52 | - | 131.36 | 2.72 | -75.0% | -45.5% | -29.5% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 0.44 | - | 131.36 | 2.72 | -88.1% | -45.5% | -42.6% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.78 | 0.09 | 131.36 | 2.72 | -27.3% | -45.5% | 18.1% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 10.26 | 0.12 | 131.36 | 2.08 | -46.6% | -46.0% | -0.7% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 2.26 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -17.5% | -40.4% | 22.8% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 5.95 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -33.7% | -40.4% | 6.6% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 6.92 | - | 132.08 | 2.08 | -60.3% | -40.4% | -19.9% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 8.89 | 1.00 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -49.5% | -42.4% | -7.0% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 13.29 | 0.70 | 136.89 | 2.08 | -6.4% | -42.4% | 36.1% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 3.13 | - | 136.89 | 2.08 | -40.7% | -42.4% | 1.7% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 23.24 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | -43.4% | -40.9% | -2.5% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 9.20 | - | 133.38 | 2.08 | 42.2% | -40.9% | 83.1% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 2.47 | - | 138.48 | 2.08 | -50.9% | -43.1% | -7.8% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 2.15 | - | 139.60 | 2.08 | -65.7% | -43.6% | -22.1% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 15.64 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 2.08 | -51.8% | -43.3% | -8.5% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 5.36 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -24.6% | -43.3% | 18.7% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 30.78 | - | 138.90 | 2.08 | -29.2% | -43.3% | 14.1% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 6.43 | - | 137.64 | 2.08 | -30.2% | -42.8% | 12.6% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 2.68 | 1.00 | 137.64 | 2.08 | -15.8% | -42.8% | 27.0% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 15.73 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 2.08 | -38.6% | -43.9% | 5.3% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 5.55 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 20.1% | -38.2% | 58.3% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 12.69 | - | 126.31 | 1.41 | 14.7% | -38.2% | 52.9% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 27.99 | 1.20 | 126.31 | 1.41 | -8.8% | -38.2% | 29.4% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 4.41 | - | 125.48 | 1.41 | -8.9% | -37.7% | 28.9% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 34.60 | - | 126.16 | 1.41 | -42.9% | -38.1% | -4.8% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 9.53 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -13.4% | -39.6% | 26.3% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 2.89 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -76.7% | -39.6% | -37.1% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 67.68 | 0.10 | 129.37 | 1.41 | -49.7% | -39.6% | -10.0% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 12.77 | - | 129.37 | 1.41 | -19.8% | -39.6% | 19.8% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.56 | - | 124.42 | 1.41 | -18.8% | -37.2% | 18.4% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 7.94 | - | 126.09 | 1.41 | -61.6% | -38.0% | -23.6% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 8.57 | - | 124.12 | 1.41 | -48.3% | -37.1% | -11.2% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 5.66 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -31.7% | -35.9% | 4.2% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 2.65 | - | 120.85 | 0.72 | -38.9% | -35.9% | -3.0% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 26.60 | 0.10 | 120.85 | 0.72 | -6.1% | -35.9% | 29.9% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 10.12 | 6.71 | 0.52 | 88.50 | 0.72 | -28.6% | -12.5% | -16.1% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 13.79 | - | 88.50 | 0.72 | -5.4% | -12.5% | 7.1% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 1.97 | 0.03 | 93.21 | 0.72 | -45.6% | -16.9% | -28.7% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 14.78 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -16.8% | -20.0% | 3.2% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 4.10 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -44.6% | -20.0% | -24.6% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 2.97 | - | 96.83 | 0.72 | -30.0% | -20.0% | -9.9% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 13.51 | 0.40 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -31.0% | -17.5% | -13.5% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 9.04 | 0.02 | 93.86 | 0.72 | -33.4% | -17.5% | -15.9% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 3.37 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 41.0% | -2.6% | 43.6% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 13.83 | 0.10 | 79.52 | 0.72 | 33.3% | -2.6% | 35.9% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.40 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | 48.9% | -2.6% | 51.6% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 0.81 | - | 79.52 | 0.72 | -33.1% | -2.6% | -30.4% |
| Vclk | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 7.20 | - | 90.09 | 0.72 | 16.7% | -14.1% | 30.7% |
| DIVX | 12/8/08 | 4.37 | 4.85 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 11.0% | -11.9% | 22.9% |
| MAXY | 12/8/08 | 5.80 | 6.86 | - | 87.93 | 0.72 | 18.3% | -11.9% | 30.2% |
| ESIC | 12/14/08 | 1.13 | 2.08 | - | 88.99 | 0.72 | 84.1% | -13.0% | 97.1% |
| MSO | 12/29/08 | 2.80 | 2.12 | - | 87.16 | - | -24.3% | -12.0% | -12.3% |
| TRMS | 12/29/08 | 1.03 | 1.46 | - | 87.16 | - | 41.7% | -12.0% | 53.7% |
| WFR | 12/29/08 | 13.43 | 14.88 | - | 87.16 | - | 10.8% | -12.0% | 22.8% |
| AHCI | 1/5/09 | 1.15 | 1.20 | - | 92.96 | - | 4.3% | -17.5% | 21.8% |
| CKSW | 1/5/09 | 1.99 | 2.85 | - | 92.96 | - | 43.2% | -17.5% | 60.7% |
| COH | 2/16/09 | 13.97 | 15.03 | - | 82.76 | - | 7.6% | -7.3% | 14.9% |
| DELL | 2/23/09 | 8.41 | 9.88 | - | 77.42 | - | 17.5% | -0.9% | 18.4% |
| SOLR | 2/23/09 | 4.22 | 4.22 | - | 77.42 | - | 0.0% | -0.9% | 0.9% |
| DECK | 3/2/09 | 41.27 | 48.23 | - | 73.93 | - | 16.9% | 3.8% | 13.1% |
| FWLT | 3/2/09 | 15.04 | 18.26 | - | 73.93 | - | 21.4% | 3.8% | 17.6% |
| HCKT | 3/2/09 | 2.56 | 1.78 | - | 73.93 | - | -30.5% | 3.8% | -34.2% |
| MWW | 3/2/09 | 6.59 | 7.34 | - | 73.93 | - | 11.4% | 3.8% | 7.6% |
| PTIE | 3/2/09 | 4.53 | 4.15 | - | 73.93 | - | -8.4% | 3.8% | -12.1% |
| TRLG | 3/2/09 | 10.22 | 10.60 | - | 73.93 | - | 3.7% | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| qlti | 3/9/09 | 1.41 | 1.65 | - | 68.92 | - | 17.0% | 11.3% | 5.7% |
| exbd | 3/9/09 | 12.96 | 13.94 | 0.44 | 68.92 | - | 11.0% | 11.3% | -0.3% |
| FIX | 3/16/09 | 9.73 | 10.01 | 76.09 | - | 2.9% | 0.8% | 2.1% | |
| DBTK | 3/16/09 | 6.65 | 5.56 | - | 76.09 | - | -16.4% | 0.8% | -17.2% |
| LOOP | 3/16/09 | 5.77 | 5.60 | - | 76.09 | - | -2.9% | 0.8% | -3.8% |
| Totals | -16.8% | -24.7% | 7.9% | ||||||
| 61.4% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | Closed | -48.0% | -41.2% | -6.8% | |||||
| S&P C | 76.71 | ||||||||
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