A friend of mine used to say, "things are never so bad that they can't get worse!". Not very upbeat, but he did have a point. So while I am in the red with my portfolio, it could certainly be worse. I have confessed a few times on this blog regarding times I have sold stocks early. Here are stocks I sold early and where I'd be if I had not sold early:
PDS: 21.89 down to 15.33 -30%
CREL 12.73 down to 8.05 -37%
MEOH 25.03 up to 26.53 +6%
AVCI 13.45 down to 9.44 -30%
UNTD 17.32 down to 11.96 -31%
KSWS 18.01 down to 17.28 -4%
SHOO 23.18 down to 20.73 -11%
FTO 46.66 down to 41.38 -11%
FDG no change
HW 15.17 down to 11.56 -24%
WPCS 11.11 down to 9.40 -15%
TRLG 22.61 down to 20.27 -10%
All-in-all down on average 16%. If I had held them and not bought their replacements I'd have over $33,000 less. It could be worse.
I did "reunite" with UNTD this week. I bought it back at $11.30.
Did get some "good" news with CHKE today. They announced they have engaged GS to explore strategic alternatives (Cherokee Inc. Retains Goldman, Sachs & Co. to Explore Strategic Alternatives). The stock was up over 6% on this news, though it is still way off its 52 week high (about 40% down).
LCAV was profiled this week in Barron's (LCA Vision may be eyeing rebound - Barron's). They are up 10% over their close on Friday. The article essentially argues that the drop from $50 to $16 was a mite steep and people with more than a 12 month outlook could do well.
ACN announces earnings tomorrow. I'll be watching closely. One analyst thinks the news will be good (Accenture: Citi Sees FY Q1 Results Wed. Beating Ests).
Finally another analyst downgraded TRID today. It has been a up and down ride (Trident: Roth Cuts Rating, Cites Lack Of Low End TV Chips).
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Marsh, I was looking through my portfolio results today thinking "man oh man, thank goodness I sold a bunch of my MFI positions early in July and August." I somewhat lucked out and moved from small cap MFI stocks to larger cap MFI stocks in July and August. Here is a list of the stocks I sold and their performance since selling them:
PALM 7/5/07 -17.98%
ELOS 7/5/07 -44.76%
RAIL 7/5/07 -31.48%
MTEX 7/5/07 -51.54%
ODSY 7/16/07 -16.63%
PACR 7/16/07 -42.68%
PDS 7/16/07 -36.79%
WLK 7/16/07 -32.42%
BVF 7/16/07 -46.58%
CRYP 7/16/07 -19.54%
GYI 8/2/07 -26.78%
CHS 8/14/07 -44.06%
PTEN 8/14/07 -12.85%
An average loss of -32.62% over a 4 to 5 month period!!! Brutal.
Here is the list of MFI stocks I replaced them with and their performance since purchase:
ACV 7/5/07 1.03%
UTX 7/5/07 4.80%
MEOH 7/16/07 1.91%
RHI 7/16/07 -33.53%
VRGY 8/3/07 11.42%
FCX 8/14/07 15.89%
Works out to an average gain of 0.26% since I bought them ... much better than a 32.62% loss.
I got out of all of my small cap MFI positions in July/August because of my recession fears ... thinking that small cap value, which is very dependent on debt financing, would be very vulnerable to a credit crunch.
I like to think it was a very wise move on my part ... but it was 90% luck.
Had I stuck by my MFI guns and held on to my positions for the full 12 months, I'd be very deep in the red right now for the year. Currently I'm up about 4%.
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