WNR has dropped a ton since August. I figured, "hey, it must be pretty high on the lists now". But nowhere to be found. So I did my own cals and came up with about a 14% earning yield (okay) and a 28% return on capital. Together, clearly not an MFI stock. "What happened?", I wondered. They had a blow out earnings report in August AND the stock has tumbled.
I noodled over it and then had my Eureka moment, a point I don't think anyone has made before. WNR went through a merger with Giant Industries that just took effect. So the merger takes affect and the balance sheet etc is now post merger but the trailing twelve month earnings just reflects WNR. That combination drives WNR off the list. Ideally, you should take the ttm earnings of WNR + GI for any calculations.
The same thing happened with FCX and PD. They were both MFI stocks until the day of the merger, at which time the PD price equaled what FCX was paying. But then the next day, FCX fell off the list, for that same reason.
Not sure what to do with this thought. But I'll be keeping an eye on WNR as I feel it is still an MFI stock.
Now that people seem to think a recession is less likely due to strong fed action, I am looking for my business service stocks like GVHR, BBSI and KFY to start moving upwards. I can dream, can't I? I did see where VPHM went up a lot today, I was hoping to buy it back post ASEI sale next Monday. Otherwise, I'm considering FTD as well. Flowers anyone? It pays a 4.4% dividend.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
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3 comments:
Wouldn't the axiom be: if an MFI stock merges with someone, it should drop off the lists?
The axiom is that it will drop of the list, but perhaps may still be an MFI stock if historical income is restated on pro forma basis.
Marsh, I think you'd have to be a pretty brave man to buy VPHM at this point. I hold a very small position that I (naturally) bought before the meltdown, but it's definitely not one I would consider adding to. May be that the stock skyrockets if they can salvage their leading drug candidate's prospects, but I could see things just as easily going the other way.
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