Thursday, August 16, 2007

Hangover

It seemed this afternoon that the market in general turned the corner. I do wonder if today was the bottom? Time will tell. It was not a great day for me, largely due to a hangover from TGB and CHCG. They were both down over 10% post earnings on Wednesday and they were both down over 10% today. Actually at one point TGB was down over 20%. That means that TGB went from $5.59 on August 8th to a low of $3.15 today. Blimey. I can't explain the CHCG meltdown either.

Someone noted that LMS got a buyout offer today. I know credit is a bit scarce, but some of these stocks are incredibly cheap and anyone with a wad of cash has to be thinking about going shopping.

Good debate on K&C this evening. Should the govt be doing something to diffuse the current credit crisis? If they do so, are they in essence bailing out hedge funds and mortgage lenders who took too much risk? Certainly there is a precedent, when LTCM had it's liquidity crisis they were bailed out by the fed as they were in the process of going hat in hand to King Greenberg and King Buffett. In addition, many S&Ls were bailed out after they made rashes of bad loans in the late 1980s. I think if they get bailed out, the govt has to attach some strings regarding investing by hedge funds. They use so much leverage that they place our economy at risk when things get rough. And perhaps the mortgage companies need some rules as well, or at the very least they need to pay the govt back (with interest) after the crisis passes.At least that is how I see it.

I am hoping for a good up day tomorrow. My graph has gotten beyond ugly. OTOH, Chicago has been great and I am having a relaxing summer vacation. On Saturday, we start the 2nd week of our vacation in the Rockies. The wealth effect (or reverse wealth effect) has my wife a bit worried. But I think we can still have a nice vacation.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

I saw K&C last night too. The guy arguing against a government bail out wasn't making much sense. I'm all for the fed lowering rates ... I'm definitely against them buying junk debt.

Materials and energy continue to get clobbered ... hard. All of my MFI stocks in materials and energy are getting destroyed. Really good companies ... FCX, NUE, RS, MRO, MEOH. I believe the average PE of those 5 stocks is about 8.

I thought one of the biggest reasons to invest in value stocks was that when there is a correction, they don't get hammered as much as growth? Definitely not the case this past month. Very, very odd trading still. Perhaps the hedge funds are still scrambling to raise cash. Or, perhaps I just don't know squat about anything ... very frustrating.

Marsh_Gerda said...

It is frustrating. I think it may be because this correction is caused by credit markets freezing. Fisher in his recent book comments that when credit markets tighten, small cap value stocks will have the greatest difficulty obtaining money. And thus in times of tight credit, they are the stocks to avoid. Now many of the MFI stocks may be small cap value stocks, but have very strong balance sheets, soe perhaps the baby is being thrown out with the bath water.