Welcome readers! Another month has rolled by. It would have been smartest to have simply gone all cash at the start of October and piled back in at close on Monday. But I expect few of us have crystal balls that good.
Welcome to the occasionally amusing MFI Diary. This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "experiences" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets". I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.
I did create a guide for new readers to my blog that point you to some fascinating/interesting
And as a free bonus, I also discuss how my non-MFI investments are doing in 2nd half of my blog.
Onwards.
Last Month
As my 20 regular readers know, I have switched from updating my readers on my performance in MFI from weekly to once a month. Hopefully less is more. September was ok, actually pretty decent as my MFI portfolios were up 1.3%. But I still struggle beating the index and my non-MFI was down. Here is a summary table:
| Component | YTD | 2nd Half | Month Change |
| Overall | -4.0% | -3.6% | -7.6% |
| MFI Select | -7.4% | -2.0% | -4.9% |
| MFI Formula | +7.6% | +1.5% | -3.1% |
| MFI Combined | -0.2% | -0.4% | -4.0% |
| Non MFI | -6.1% | -5.3% | -9.5% |
| Dividend Index | -1.3% | +0.9% | -2.6% |
| R3K Index | +2.2% | -0.9% | -7.6% |
| Blended Index | +0.9% | -0.3% | -5.8% |
| MFI Index | +11.3% | -1.5% | -5.0% |
| GARIX | -1.5% | -0.1% | -3.1% |
So let us go through the numbers. YTD my MFI combined is -0.2% versus Russell 3000 at +2.2%. I did close the gap quite a bit in October as I was down 4% while benchmark was down 7.6%. Value may be making a comeback!
My non-MFI had a terrible, terrible month - down 9.5% and is now -6.1% for the year. Shipping and Energy, my two largest components are both struggling. I do continue to hold, but I have a longer term plan for 2019 as I believe this recent correction is a wake-up call for a bear market at end of 2019 or in 2020.
The MFI Index (a basket of 50 stocks) did reasonably well in October and GARIX (a Gotham long/short MFI fund) was only down 3.1% as the short part probably helped. Finally, the very dull Dividend Index proved that dull isn't so bad when hair is on fire - was off just 2.6% for the month.
Going Forward
It helps me to have some view of the future... hopefully my views have some points that will be correct. My view, as hinted above, is that we will go into a recession late 2019 or early 2020. This will have a bear market associated with it. One fallout will be that interest rates in 2020 will be lower than they are today.
I will not change my MFI strategy for this vision... although I might pick lower risk stocks. I will revise my non-MFI strategy to some extent, essentially paring some positions and moving more into cash or preferred stocks.
MFI Stuff
I'll get more into the weeds shortly, but here is an overview. First the MFI Index, a basket of 50 MFI stocks picked at the start of the year continues to rock and roll. Up 11.3%! Pretty darned good. Here is a table of those 50 stocks (to be clear, I don't own this basket... I just track it as a benchmark).
| Stock | Start | Current | YTD Change | Last Month |
| AMAG | 13.25 | 21.50 | 62.3% | 7.5% |
| AMCX | 54.08 | 58.58 | 8.3% | -11.7% |
| ABC | 91.82 | 89.14 | -2.9% | -4.5% |
| AMGN | 173.90 | 195.43 | 12.4% | -6.9% |
| AGX | 45.00 | 44.77 | -0.5% | 2.3% |
| BIVV | 53.92 | 105.00 | 94.7% | 0.0% |
| HRB | 26.22 | 27.28 | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| BPT | 20.10 | 35.62 | 77.2% | -7.3% |
| ABCD | 5.68 | 14.38 | 153.2% | 21.5% |
| CPLA | 77.40 | 104.86 | 35.5% | 0.0% |
| CASA | 17.76 | 14.40 | -18.9% | -2.4% |
| CSCO | 38.30 | 47.03 | 22.8% | -5.2% |
| CNCE | 25.87 | 14.92 | -42.3% | 0.5% |
| CJREF | 9.21 | 4.39 | -52.4% | 13.2% |
| DLX | 76.84 | 48.11 | -37.4% | -16.8% |
| DIN | 50.73 | 82.93 | 63.5% | -0.3% |
| DISCA | 22.38 | 32.39 | 44.7% | 1.2% |
| EGRX | 53.42 | 49.24 | -7.8% | -29.0% |
| EVC | 7.15 | 5.09 | -28.8% | 0.8% |
| ESRX | 74.64 | 96.97 | 29.9% | 2.1% |
| GME | 17.95 | 15.70 | -12.5% | -4.1% |
| GILD | 71.64 | 69.89 | -2.4% | -11.4% |
| HSII | 24.55 | 34.90 | 42.2% | 1.9% |
| HPQ | 21.01 | 24.54 | 16.8% | -6.2% |
| INVA | 14.19 | 13.96 | -1.6% | -8.4% |
| IDCC | 76.15 | 72.35 | -5.0% | -10.7% |
| IPG | 20.16 | 23.79 | 18.0% | 1.2% |
| KLAC | 105.07 | 93.63 | -10.9% | -9.8% |
| LEE | 2.35 | 2.67 | 13.6% | 0.8% |
| MCFT | 22.22 | 29.68 | 33.6% | -17.3% |
| MPAA | 24.99 | 21.18 | -15.2% | -9.7% |
| MSGN | 20.25 | 25.55 | 26.2% | 0.0% |
| NHTC | 15.19 | 23.13 | 52.3% | -2.3% |
| NLS | 13.35 | 12.23 | -8.4% | -12.3% |
| EGOV | 16.60 | 13.55 | -18.4% | -9.9% |
| OMC | 72.83 | 76.12 | 4.5% | 9.0% |
| PTN | 0.86 | 0.90 | 4.8% | -9.8% |
| PDLI | 2.74 | 2.49 | -9.1% | -5.3% |
| PCOA | 575.00 | 690.00 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| PBI | 11.18 | 7.18 | -35.8% | -6.0% |
| SRNE | 3.80 | 3.19 | -16.1% | -27.5% |
| SP | 37.10 | 31.96 | -13.9% | -12.4% |
| SYNT | 22.99 | 41.00 | 78.3% | 0.0% |
| TGNA | 14.08 | 11.75 | -16.5% | -3.5% |
| MEET | 2.82 | 4.41 | 56.4% | -10.9% |
| TVTY | 36.55 | 34.41 | -5.9% | 7.0% |
| TPCO | 17.59 | 15.09 | -14.2% | -7.6% |
| UTHR | 147.95 | 110.86 | -25.1% | -13.3% |
| VEC | 30.85 | 26.80 | -13.1% | -14.1% |
| VIAB | 30.81 | 32.58 | 5.7% | -5.2% |
| Total | 21,371 | 11.3% |
I didn't bring in the one month total, but it was -5.0%. A bunch of these have been bought or are being bought: BIVV, ABCD, CPLA, ESRX, PCOA and SYNT. Pretty remarkable.
I always harp on importance of not picking "stinkers", stocks that drop 30% or more. Definitely a few at risk here: PBI, DLX, EVC and CNCE. The distressing part is three of those (first three) are dividend payers and my thesis (backed by back-testing) has been these are much less likely to be stinkers. Some may still bounce back before index hits a year... we shall see.
MFI Select
While my MFI Index is a tracking/benchmark (no real money), I do have two real money MFI portfolios. MFI Select is the oldest, started in August 2012. I had quit MFI in July 2011 and spent a year studying why it wasn't working for me. I came back with an approach to (hopefully) minimize stinkers and have been pretty darned successful.
MFI Select has 4 tranches of 5 stocks each. I buy and hold the stocks for a year and then start a new tranche. As the name connotes, I "select" the stocks... frankly by any means I desire. I always look at official screen, but I also run my own screens. While MFI Select has outperformed benchmarks nicely since I started, it has been a bit of a rugged 2018. Yes, I have had too many stinkers. The crystal ball has been fuzzy.
Here are the 4 open tranches:
| 11/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MSGN | $16.67 | $25.55 | $0.00 | 53.3% | 6.8% |
| CELG | $100.60 | $71.60 | $0.00 | -28.8% | 6.8% |
| EVC | $5.78 | $4.94 | $0.20 | -11.1% | 6.8% |
| SIMO | $46.88 | $37.59 | $0.90 | -17.9% | 6.8% |
| VIAB | $24.41 | $31.98 | $0.80 | 34.3% | 6.8% |
| Totals | 6.0% | 6.8% | |||
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $44.02 | $0.75 | 2.8% | -2.8% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $14.40 | $0.00 | -23.4% | -2.8% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $91.54 | $2.09 | -14.7% | -2.8% |
| THO | $136.33 | $69.64 | $1.13 | -48.1% | -2.8% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $43.07 | $1.50 | -49.2% | -2.8% |
| Totals | -26.5% | -2.8% | |||
| 5/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CAAP | $12.19 | $7.93 | $0.00 | -34.9% | 3.2% |
| TGNA | $10.51 | $11.54 | $0.14 | 11.2% | 3.2% |
| DISCA | $23.85 | $32.39 | $0.00 | 35.8% | 3.2% |
| FTSI | $19.39 | $12.81 | $0.00 | -33.9% | 3.2% |
| ICHR | $21.96 | $17.75 | $0.00 | -19.2% | 3.2% |
| Totals | -8.2% | 3.2% | |||
| 8/15/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $39.45 | $44.02 | $0.25 | 12.2% | -5.0% |
| AMCX | $60.97 | $58.58 | $0.00 | -3.9% | -5.0% |
| CJREF | $3.08 | $3.78 | $0.00 | 22.8% | -5.0% |
| GME | $15.50 | $14.60 | $0.38 | -3.4% | -5.0% |
| SGH | $31.12 | $28.01 | $0.00 | -10.0% | -5.0% |
| Totals | 3.6% | -5.0% |
The November tranche has really struggled lately. Last month it was leading benchmark 18.0% to 14.6%. Just a month later it is trailing 6.0% to 6.8%. Did I mention it was a rugged month? Here is a table showing individual stocks so the keen-eyed reader can identify the problematic stocks during this correction:
| Stock | Last Month | Current | Dividend | Change |
| AGX | 43.00 | 44.02 | 0.25 | 3.0% |
| MSGN | 25.80 | 25.55 | - | -1.0% |
| ICHR | 20.42 | 17.75 | - | -13.1% |
| DISCA | 32.00 | 32.39 | - | 1.2% |
| SIMO | 53.70 | 37.59 | - | -30.0% |
| KLAC | 101.71 | 91.54 | - | -10.0% |
| VIAB | 33.76 | 31.98 | - | -5.3% |
| TGNA | 11.96 | 11.54 | - | -3.5% |
| AMCX | 66.34 | 58.58 | - | -11.7% |
| CELG | 89.49 | 71.60 | - | -20.0% |
| SGH | 28.74 | 28.01 | - | -2.5% |
| CASA | 14.75 | 14.40 | - | -2.4% |
| EVC | 4.90 | 4.94 | - | 0.8% |
| GME | 15.27 | 14.60 | - | -4.4% |
| CJREF | 3.27 | 3.78 | - | 15.6% |
| WDC | 58.54 | 43.07 | - | -26.4% |
| THO | 83.70 | 69.64 | 0.39 | -16.3% |
| CAAP | 8.54 | 7.93 | - | -7.1% |
| FTSI | 11.79 | 12.81 | - | 8.7% |
Spoiler alert - semi stocks/high tech really sucked. WDC, KLAC, SIMO and ICHR down an average of 20%. That is not good. That being said, I think it is overdone and may buy some names in that sector in mid November when new tranche starts.
Here is a table that shows how $100,000 would have grown (and shrunk) over time if evenly invest in first 4 tranches and rolled over:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| 1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
| 4/1/2018 | 96.21% | 293,665 | 197,451 |
| 7/1/2018 | 68.20% | 273,125 | 204,921 |
| 10/1/2018 | 65.80% | 284,097 | 218,297 |
| Current | 61.26% | 264,512 | 203,248 |
You can see at start of 2018 I was kicking butt, but now lead (by a still respectable) 61 points. In reality, the 92% lead was really the outlier if you look throughout the table. The nice news is my August 15th tranche is off to a super start.
Finally, here a matrix showing an aggregate gain for every tranche I have had in MFI Select:
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 3.6% | 6.0% | -26.5% | -8.2% | -7.7% |
| Previous Tranche | 27.8% | 42.6% | 74.9% | -3.6% | 43.6% |
| Tranche -2 | -0.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Tranche -3 | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 8.2% |
| Tranche -4 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| Tranche -5 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -6 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 144.0% | 354.2% | 135.8% | 24.0% | 164.5% |
| Current Balance | 61,002 | 113,547 | 58,960 | 31,003 | 264,512 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -5.0% | 6.8% | -2.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 114.3% | 118.8% | 96.2% | 83.6% | 103.2% |
| R3K Balance | 53,577 | 54,709 | 49,054 | 45,907 | 203,248 |
| Annualized IRR | 15.4% | 28.9% | 16.1% | 4.0% | 16.1% |
You can see the struggle in that my current tranches are down in aggregate by 7.7%. But previous 4 tranches were up by 43.6%. So win some, lose some. Overall (at bottom) my annualized IRR is still a solid 16.1%. For whatever reason, the November tranche has been my best throughout the years and May the worst.
MFI Formula
My second real money portfolio is MFI Formula. I started this two years later, October 2014. While Select is very free-form, MFI Formula, as it sounds, is based on a formula. I filter stocks from official list based on dividend yield and market cap. I then use a random number generator to pick 5 stocks. I want to be unbiased.
It has been nip and tuck with the benchmark for the 4 years, but frankly that is pretty good. in the past 4 years MFI in general has been skunked by the index and value stocks have been thrashed by growth stocks. So I count breaking even with benchmark as a win. And actually, this month I spurted forward (although it was actually better yesterday until GILD laid an egg today).
Here are my 4 open tranches:
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $192.79 | $3.96 | 11.1% | 1.6% |
| GME | $18.06 | $14.60 | $1.14 | -12.8% | 1.6% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $68.18 | $1.71 | -2.4% | 1.6% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $26.54 | $0.74 | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $74.32 | $1.80 | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Totals | 0.8% | 1.6% | |||
| 4/3/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $166.46 | $192.79 | $2.64 | 17.4% | 5.0% |
| VIAB | $29.20 | $31.98 | $0.40 | 10.9% | 5.0% |
| GILD | $72.71 | $68.18 | $1.14 | -4.7% | 5.0% |
| TUP | $47.32 | $35.10 | $1.36 | -23.0% | 5.0% |
| EGOV | $13.29 | $13.31 | $0.16 | 1.4% | 5.0% |
| Totals | 0.4% | 5.0% | |||
| 7/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.90 | $3.78 | $0.19 | 1.8% | -0.5% |
| GILD | $70.80 | $68.18 | $0.57 | -2.9% | -0.5% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $23.16 | $0.21 | 2.5% | -0.5% |
| KLAC | $102.03 | $91.54 | $0.75 | -9.5% | -0.5% |
| TUP | $40.09 | $35.10 | $0.68 | -10.8% | -0.5% |
| Totals | -3.8% | -0.5% | |||
| 10/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.36 | $3.78 | $0.00 | 12.5% | -7.3% |
| GILD | $78.13 | $68.18 | $0.00 | -12.7% | -7.3% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $23.16 | $0.00 | 1.6% | -7.3% |
| PETS | $31.56 | $27.94 | $0.00 | -11.5% | -7.3% |
| VIAB | $32.21 | $31.98 | $0.00 | -0.7% | -7.3% |
| Totals | -2.2% | -7.3% |
It doesn't feel like I'm doing great as only one of the four tranches is leading. But they've narrowed gap - July was trailing by 10 points a month ago and now just back by 4 points. January was trailing by 6 points, now just a point. Woo-hoo! Never felt so good about being behind. Here are the stocks during the bleak month of October:
| Stock | Last Month | Current | Dividend | Change |
| GILD | 77.21 | 68.18 | - | -11.7% |
| AMGN | 207.29 | 192.79 | - | -7.0% |
| VIAB | 33.76 | 31.98 | - | -5.3% |
| CJREF | 3.27 | 3.78 | - | 15.6% |
| IPG | 22.87 | 23.16 | - | 1.3% |
| TUP | 33.45 | 35.10 | - | 4.9% |
| OMC | 68.02 | 74.32 | - | 9.3% |
| GME | 15.27 | 14.60 | - | -4.4% |
| EGOV | 14.80 | 13.31 | - | -10.1% |
| HRB | 25.75 | 26.54 | - | 3.1% |
| KLAC | 101.71 | 91.54 | - | -10.0% |
| PETS | 31.56 | 27.94 | - | -11.5% |
Hey, not so bad! At least I don't have 4 names down an average of 20%. 5% of GILD was today.
Here is how $100,000 would have grown over the years:
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
| 4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
| 7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
| 10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
| 1/1/2018 | -3.63% | 131,460 | 135,086 |
| 4/1/2018 | -0.16% | 133,734 | 133,898 |
| 7/1/2018 | 2.28% | 141,126 | 138,849 |
| 10/1/2018 | -0.85% | 147,963 | 148,808 |
| Current | 4.25% | 142,958 | 138,706 |
So I have jumped into a 4.25% lead.
Finally, here is the same matrix showing all tranches in aggregate:
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | -2.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | -3.8% | -1.1% |
| Previous Tranche | 18.5% | 16.5% | 21.3% | 37.3% | 22.4% |
| Tranche -2 | 7.0% | 9.3% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 17.0% |
| Tranche -3 | 5.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | 1.0% |
| Tranche -4 | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 30.9% | 42.4% | 52.1% | 46.6% | 43.0% |
| Current Balance | 327,031 | 356,003 | 380,551 | 365,991 | 1,429,577 |
| R3K Current Tranche | -7.3% | 1.6% | 5.0% | -0.5% | -0.3% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 45.9% | 37.1% | 36.0% | 36.0% | 38.8% |
| R3K Balance | 364,544 | 342,672 | 340,348 | 339,511 | 1,387,075 |
| Annualized IRR | 6.8% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 10.2% |
So the 4 current tranches down 1.1%... but the four previous tranches were up 22.4%. MFI does have some volatility.
Dividend Index
Before I go further, I want to list my dividend index as well. Also, if you are here just to read about MFI (probably for the best as my non-MFI is struggling)... then no reason to read on as I'll be discussing non-MFI stuff from now on.
The dividend index is 40 securities published by Barron's at start of year. I use it as part of benchmark against my entire portfolio as I have a component dedicated to income and I'd like that to beat the Dividend Index.
| Ticker | 12/30/2017 | Current | Dividend | YTD Change | Monthly Change | Yield |
| AMLP | 10.79 | 9.82 | 0.62 | -3.3% | -8.1% | 8.24% |
| NML | 9.38 | 7.57 | 0.55 | -13.4% | -12.9% | 8.72% |
| EPD | 26.51 | 26.82 | 1.26 | 5.9% | -6.6% | 6.23% |
| ET | 14.00 | 15.54 | 1.32 | 20.5% | -10.6% | 7.77% |
| FDD | 13.73 | 12.44 | 0.44 | -6.2% | -5.1% | 4.10% |
| VGK | 59.15 | 51.78 | 1.13 | -10.6% | -7.9% | 3.70% |
| DDAIF | 84.57 | 59.09 | 3.25 | -26.3% | -6.3% | 7.53% |
| NVS | 83.96 | 87.46 | 2.75 | 7.4% | 1.5% | 3.41% |
| NOBL | 64.04 | 63.16 | 1.00 | 0.2% | -5.5% | 2.19% |
| VYM | 85.63 | 83.26 | 1.86 | -0.6% | -4.4% | 3.05% |
| MRK | 56.27 | 73.61 | 1.44 | 33.4% | 3.8% | 2.59% |
| PEP | 119.92 | 112.38 | 2.42 | -4.3% | 0.5% | 3.11% |
| VNQ | 82.98 | 78.32 | 2.93 | -2.1% | -2.9% | 4.90% |
| RQI | 12.65 | 11.27 | 0.80 | -4.6% | -8.0% | 7.68% |
| TCO | 65.43 | 55.01 | 1.88 | -13.1% | -8.1% | 4.69% |
| SLG | 100.93 | 91.26 | 2.33 | -7.3% | -6.4% | 3.53% |
| T | 38.88 | 30.68 | 1.96 | -16.0% | -8.6% | 6.60% |
| VZ | 52.93 | 57.09 | 2.24 | 12.1% | 6.9% | 4.17% |
| CHL | 50.54 | 46.55 | 0.80 | -6.3% | -4.9% | 4.68% |
| DTEGY | 17.66 | 16.35 | 0.68 | -3.6% | 2.0% | 4.70% |
| DSU | 11.70 | 10.64 | 0.69 | -3.2% | -4.5% | 7.68% |
| HIO | 5.07 | 4.54 | 0.29 | -4.7% | -4.6% | 7.10% |
| MUB | 110.74 | 107.10 | 2.10 | -1.4% | -0.8% | 2.39% |
| PRHYX | 6.76 | 6.40 | 0.27 | -1.3% | -2.0% | 5.40% |
| NEA | 13.75 | 12.13 | 0.60 | -7.4% | -4.2% | 5.57% |
| JNK | 36.72 | 35.16 | 1.65 | 0.2% | -2.5% | 5.59% |
| VWITX | 14.13 | 13.69 | 0.31 | -0.9% | -0.6% | 2.80% |
| PHMIX | 9.09 | 8.89 | 0.32 | 1.3% | -1.7% | 2.80% |
| UTG | 30.94 | 30.36 | 1.60 | 3.3% | -1.0% | 4.20% |
| XLU | 52.65 | 53.69 | 1.26 | 4.4% | 1.9% | 3.39% |
| DUK | 84.11 | 82.63 | 2.67 | 1.4% | 3.3% | 4.37% |
| EIX | 63.24 | 69.39 | 1.63 | 12.3% | 2.5% | 3.58% |
| PFF | 38.07 | 36.14 | 1.80 | -0.3% | -2.7% | 5.74% |
| JPC | 10.34 | 9.04 | 0.65 | -6.3% | -2.5% | 8.36% |
| WFC-PL | 1,309.99 | 1,271.99 | 56.25 | 1.4% | -1.5% | 5.80% |
| TIP | 114.08 | 108.84 | 2.10 | -2.8% | -1.6% | 3.18% |
| SHY | 83.85 | 83.08 | 0.79 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.54% |
| TLT | 126.86 | 113.58 | 2.55 | -8.5% | -3.1% | 2.77% |
| Totals | - | - | - | -1.3% | -3.1% | 4.84% |
So down 3.1% for the month... which is respectable. You can see some of the utilities were positive (like DUK) - these are viewed as defensive havens. I was a bit surprised to see TLT (treasuries) negative at -3.1%. And down 8.5% for the year. Yikes!
Non MFI
Painful for me this month to write this section as down 9.5% sucks. I will keep it short and not so sweet. I am not going to change anything as I see a lot of my stocks here way oversold (IMHO). First the Energy section. This area has struggled this month. Obviously the correction hurt, but I also think that people believe oil prices will moderate as Trump doesn't seem to be leaning on Iran that hard regarding sanctions (exceptions and waivers are being given). I did sell RRC and SWN during the month... these turned out to be wise moves.
| Ticker | Bought | Current | Dividend | Gain | Weight |
| APA | 40.57 | 37.83 | 0.50 | -5.5% | 0.7% |
| AR | 18.57 | 15.89 | - | -14.4% | 1.3% |
| CHK | 4.50 | 3.51 | 0.02 | -21.6% | 1.2% |
| ECA | 12.40 | 10.23 | 0.02 | -17.3% | 2.3% |
| ET | 15.02 | 15.54 | 0.44 | 6.4% | 1.5% |
| FSLR | 51.46 | 41.80 | - | -18.8% | 0.9% |
| KMI | 16.73 | 17.02 | 0.40 | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| OXY | 79.75 | 67.08 | 0.91 | -14.7% | 2.7% |
| PXD | 188.01 | 147.20 | - | -21.7% | 1.2% |
| SEDG | 47.39 | 38.73 | - | -18.3% | 1.0% |
| SPWR | 7.34 | 6.01 | - | -18.1% | 0.8% |
| WPX | 17.81 | 16.04 | - | -10.0% | 1.0% |
| Total | -12.5% |
Note my energy basket was up 3% last month and is now down 12.5%. I probably wasn't quite that bad as my SWN and RRC sales were accretive and I am not showing here. But still bad nonetheless. And CHK was up like 5% today... they dropped from $4.60 to $3.19 in 2 weeks.
ET was ETP, ETP was rolled into ETE and is no longer an MLP. This is a trend that will likely continue.
Shipping
| Ticker | Bought | Current | Dividend | Gain | %Portfolio |
| ANW | 1.27 | 1.05 | - | -17.6% | 1.7% |
| CPLP | 3.39 | 2.76 | 0.25 | -11.2% | 2.0% |
| GLOP-PB | 25.36 | 25.20 | 1.35 | 4.7% | 1.9% |
| GLNG | 23.90 | 26.78 | 0.11 | 12.5% | 2.2% |
| NMM | 1.89 | 1.54 | 0.03 | -17.4% | 2.5% |
| LPG | 7.89 | 7.96 | - | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| TGP | 16.77 | 14.21 | 0.18 | -14.2% | 3.8% |
| TK | 7.84 | 6.63 | 0.09 | -14.3% | 3.0% |
| TNK | 1.02 | 1.11 | - | 8.9% | 1.1% |
| Total | -7.7% | 19.1% |
Kind of same story here as Energy... just not as stark. I was up 1.1% last month now down 7.7%. But today these names showed some life, so not to give up all hope! ANW has just gone down, down, down. From $1,43 to $1.05 in past month and it was $1.90 just a couple months ago. The world still awaits their 20F which is ridiculously overdue. And the more overdue it becomes, the great the fear is that it is going to be really bad. That would suck as I have a large position... although shrinking almost daily.
TGP is my largest position. Their earnings are November 15th. The big bet here is that they will be raising their distribution. If they don't, watch out below.
GLOP-PB is an example of where I will be taking my portfolio in 2019 as I prepare for bear market. It is a preferred stock that should hold up well in a typical bear market. And if interest rates do actually drop, it might go up. I have made a list of a half dozen securities like this and will be tracking. I will likely start rotating in April.
Banks
Regular readers may recall I had a basket of small banks that I bought last December. I sold them all by end of June. That turned out to be fortuitous as most of them have crashed in past quarter. I went through them and have started a new portfolio of them that I bought last Friday.
| Ticker | Bought | Current | Dividend | Gain |
| ASB | $22.51 | $23.18 | - | 3.0% |
| ISBC | $10.88 | $11.18 | - | 2.8% |
| NYCB | $9.24 | $9.58 | - | 3.6% |
| PACW | $38.65 | $40.62 | - | 5.1% |
| PBCT | $15.30 | $15.66 | 0.18 | 3.5% |
| Total | 3.6% |
So good timing (thus far). 3.6% in 3+ trading days. I have not yet rolled these results into my overall results... so I really did a bit better in non-MFI and overall.
ETFs
I am convinced that stocks will rally the last two months this year as buybacks start firing up and we get a santa rally. So Friday I also made two large ETF moves. I bought QQQ and QLD (leveraged QQQ). So far they've made me quite a bit... up 3.1% and 4.4%. If they hit 10%, I'll likely sell.
Dividend/Income Holdings
I own a bunch of income securities.
T
OIBAX
CTL
LADR
KCLI
TGONF
NRZ and
NTR (the newest one).
I probably need to make a better table showing these and promise to do that by next month! Or maybe even tomorrow. Ok. Here is the table:
| Ticker | Bought | Current | Dividend | Yield | Gain |
| OIBAX | 5.91 | 5.34 | 0.37 | 4.6% | -3.4% |
| LADR | 13.35 | 16.84 | 1.26 | 7.7% | 35.5% |
| NRZ | 16.56 | 17.88 | 2.67 | 11.2% | 24.0% |
| T | 32.45 | 30.66 | 0.82 | 6.5% | -3.0% |
| CTL | 20.71 | 20.65 | 0.12 | 10.5% | 0.3% |
| TGONF | 11.04 | 12.20 | 2.50 | 5.9% | 33.2% |
| KCLI | 47.92 | 38.05 | 1.28 | 2.8% | -17.9% |
| NTR | 52.60 | 52.93 | - | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| O | 26.73 | 60.26 | 22.24 | 4.4% | 208.6% |
| Overall | 11.9% |
I have other income holdings spread through Energy & Shipping (KMI, ET, CPLP, GLOP-PB, TGP, NMM and OXY).
Ok... I guess that wasn't so short and wasn't so sweet. No one to blame but myself! Let me go get
some bourbon and toast to a better November to remember.
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