Saturday, September 22, 2018

MFI Formula Approach is Working

MFI Formula Approach is Working

One of my real money MFI approaches is what I call MFI Formula.  This is purely a formula-driven approach, where I take the official screen, apply a couple of filters and then use a random number generator to pick 5 stocks.  I do this once a quarter, hold for a year and then rinse and repeat.

I was looking at results year to date and saw the Russell 3000 is up 10.8%.  Whoa, I thought... that is pretty good.  Then I saw my MFI Formula approach is up 11.1%.  Double whoa.  That is me and that is real money.  And in fact, depending how you measure it, my MFI Formula is doing even better.  I include in that 11% a cash balance (earning nothing) that was 30% of the total at start of year and has been trending down as I add to investments each quarter end. If I strip that out (which seems fair as the Russell 3000 number has no cash ballast), I'm up 13,2%.

Doesn't Feel Like I am Up

It doesn't really feel like I am up as my four open tranches are struggling a bit:


10/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DIN  $43.14 $81.10 $2.86 94.6% 17.8%
 GILD  $82.85 $75.51 $2.23 -6.2% 17.8%
 GME  $20.50 $16.52 $1.52 -12.0% 17.8%
 HPQ  $20.22 $25.83 $0.53 30.4% 17.8%
 OMC  $74.80 $70.90 $2.35 -2.1% 17.8%
 Totals  20.9% 17.8%
1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $205.10 $3.96 18.0% 10.2%
 GME  $18.06 $16.52 $1.14 -2.2% 10.2%
 GILD  $71.64 $75.51 $1.71 7.8% 10.2%
 HRB  $26.34 $26.12 $0.74 2.0% 10.2%
 OMC  $72.81 $70.90 $1.80 -0.2% 10.2%
 Totals  5.1% 10.2%
4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $205.10 $2.64 24.8% 13.5%
 VIAB  $29.20 $32.37 $0.40 12.2% 13.5%
 GILD  $72.71 $75.51 $1.14 5.4% 13.5%
 TUP  $47.32 $34.55 $1.36 -24.1% 13.5%
 EGOV  $13.29 $14.55 $0.16 10.7% 13.5%
 Totals  5.8% 13.5%
7/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.90 $3.30 $0.19 -10.4% 7.9%
 GILD  $70.80 $75.51 $0.57 7.5% 7.9%
 IPG  $22.80 $23.18 $0.21 2.6% 7.9%
 KLAC  $102.03 $104.52 $0.75 3.2% 7.9%
 TUP  $40.09 $34.55 $0.68 -12.1% 7.9%
 Totals  -1.9% 7.9%


So they are up on average 6.0% and the Russell 3000 is up 12.4% across these 4 tranches.  But this is only a bit more than 1/2 the picture.  I closed two tranches in 2018 that beat the R3K pretty soundly:


4/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $18.45 $22.00 $2.75 34.1% 11.0%
 CSCO  $33.76 $41.01 $1.16 24.9% 11.0%
 GILD  $67.50 $73.14 $2.13 11.5% 11.0%
 OMC  $85.53 $71.27 $2.25 -14.0% 11.0%
 SYNT  $16.76 $25.16 $0.00 50.1% 11.0%
 Totals  21.3% 11.0%
7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $42.67 $1.24 41.7% 17.4%
 GME  $20.95 $15.47 $1.52 -18.9% 17.4%
 HPQ  $17.60 $23.37 $0.53 35.8% 17.4%
 RGR  $60.70 $56.70 $0.99 -5.0% 17.4%
 SYNT  $16.21 $37.77 $0.00 133.0% 17.4%
 Totals  37.3% 17.4%

Summary

13% is great even if it isn't beating benchmark by much. And in a time where the only stocks up feel like FAANG stocks, it feels good for some value plays to be hanging in there.  Sadly, my other MFI approach (Select) is having a difficult year (actually slightly in the red).

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