Another month has passed. Starting to cool down here in New England. It has been a good stretch for investing in general (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-dominated-in-the-third-quarter-one-of-the-strongest-in-years-2018-09-28), but I am not exactly crushing it. It is what it is.
Welcome to the occasionally amusing MFI Diary. This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "experiences" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets". I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.
I did create a guide for new readers to my blog that point you to some fascinating/interesting
And as a free bonus, I also discuss how my non-MFI investments are doing (actually ok) in 2nd half of my blog.
Onwards.
Last Month
As my 20 regular readers know, I have switched from updating my readers on my performance in MFI from weekly to once a month. Hopefully less is more. September was ok, actually pretty decent as my MFI portfolios were up 1.3%. But I still struggle beating the index and my non-MFI was down. Here is a summary table:
| Component | YTD | 3rd Quarter | Month Change |
| Overall | +3.6% | +4.0% | -0.9% |
| MFI Select | -2.5% | +2.9% | +0.2% |
| MFI Formula | +10.7% | +4.5% | +2.4% |
| MFI Combined | +3.8% | +3.7% | +1.3% |
| Non MFI | +3.4% | +4.2% | -2.1% |
| Dividend Index | +1.2% | +3.4% | -0.5% |
| R3K Index | +9.7% | +6.7% | -0.3% |
| Blended Index | +6.8% | +5.6% | -0.4% |
| MFI Index | +16.4% | +3.5% | -1.5% |
| GARIX | +1.6% | +3.1% | +0.6% |
As my daughter says, "there is a lot to unpack" in this table. But bottomline, my MFI portfolios are up 3.8% for the year. The Russell 3000 soared 6.7% in the quarter and is leaving me in the dust, up 9.7% YTD. The MFI Index is up a snappy 16.4% for the year and GARIX, a MFI mutual fund is up an unappealing 1.6% for 2018. Finally, the dividend index I created to benchmark my dividend investments is up just 1.2% as the fed keeps hiking rates.
MFI Index
My MFI Index is a basket of 50 MFI stocks that I reconstitute once a year. I have been tracking the MFI Index since 2006. Here are the 50 stocks and how they've done in 2018:
| Stock | Start | Current | YTD Change |
| AMAG | 13.25 | 20.00 | 50.9% |
| AMCX | 54.08 | 66.34 | 22.7% |
| ABC | 91.82 | 93.36 | 1.7% |
| AMGN | 173.90 | 209.93 | 20.7% |
| AGX | 45.00 | 43.75 | -2.8% |
| BIVV | 53.92 | 105.00 | 94.7% |
| HRB | 26.22 | 26.49 | 1.0% |
| BPT | 20.10 | 38.43 | 91.2% |
| ABCD | 5.68 | 11.84 | 108.5% |
| CPLA | 77.40 | 104.86 | 35.5% |
| CASA | 17.76 | 14.75 | -16.9% |
| CSCO | 38.30 | 49.60 | 29.5% |
| CNCE | 25.87 | 14.84 | -42.6% |
| CJREF | 9.21 | 3.88 | -57.9% |
| DLX | 76.84 | 57.84 | -24.7% |
| DIN | 50.73 | 83.20 | 64.0% |
| DISCA | 22.38 | 32.00 | 43.0% |
| EGRX | 53.42 | 69.33 | 29.8% |
| EVC | 7.15 | 5.05 | -29.4% |
| ESRX | 74.64 | 95.01 | 27.3% |
| GME | 17.95 | 16.37 | -8.8% |
| GILD | 71.64 | 78.92 | 10.2% |
| HSII | 24.55 | 34.24 | 39.5% |
| HPQ | 21.01 | 26.17 | 24.6% |
| INVA | 14.19 | 15.24 | 7.4% |
| IDCC | 76.15 | 81.05 | 6.4% |
| IPG | 20.16 | 23.50 | 16.6% |
| KLAC | 105.07 | 103.80 | -1.2% |
| LEE | 2.35 | 2.65 | 12.8% |
| MCFT | 22.22 | 35.88 | 61.5% |
| MPAA | 24.99 | 23.45 | -6.2% |
| MSGN | 20.25 | 25.80 | 27.4% |
| NHTC | 15.19 | 23.67 | 55.8% |
| NLS | 13.35 | 13.95 | 4.5% |
| EGOV | 16.60 | 15.04 | -9.4% |
| OMC | 72.83 | 69.82 | -4.1% |
| PTN | 0.86 | 1.00 | 16.1% |
| PDLI | 2.74 | 2.63 | -4.0% |
| PCOA | 575.00 | 690.00 | 20.0% |
| PBI | 11.18 | 7.64 | -31.6% |
| SRNE | 3.80 | 4.40 | 15.8% |
| SP | 37.10 | 36.50 | -1.6% |
| SYNT | 22.99 | 40.98 | 78.3% |
| TGNA | 14.08 | 12.17 | -13.6% |
| MEET | 2.82 | 4.95 | 75.5% |
| TVTY | 36.55 | 32.15 | -12.0% |
| TRNC | 17.59 | 16.33 | -7.2% |
| UTHR | 147.95 | 127.88 | -13.6% |
| VEC | 30.85 | 31.19 | 1.1% |
| VIAB | 30.81 | 34.36 | 11.5% |
| Total | 21,371 | 16.4% |
Note the ending stock prices also include dividends paid in 2018. Some great performances in this table, wish I owned a few more of the good ones!
Here is a table showing how the MFI Index has done against Russell 3000 by year and inception to date:
| Annual | Inception to Date | |||
| Year | Russell | MFI | Russell ITD | MFI ITD |
| 2006 | 11.4% | 15.0% | 11.4% | 15.0% |
| 2007 | 4.1% | -6.7% | 16.0% | 7.3% |
| 2008 | -37.0% | -38.0% | -27.0% | -33.4% |
| 2009 | 32.5% | 45.2% | -3.3% | -3.3% |
| 2010 | 18.4% | 22.8% | 14.5% | 18.7% |
| 2011 | -0.6% | -10.5% | 13.9% | 6.2% |
| 2012 | 16.4% | 9.7% | 32.6% | 16.6% |
| 2013 | 33.0% | 51.7% | 76.3% | 76.8% |
| 2014 | 12.3% | 12.1% | 98.0% | 98.1% |
| 2015 | 0.4% | -8.9% | 98.7% | 80.4% |
| 2016 | 12.5% | 13.2% | 123.5% | 104.2% |
| 2017 | 20.8% | 4.7% | 170.1% | 113.9% |
| 2018 | 9.7% | 16.4% | 196.4% | 148.9% |
So this shows that MFI, if you screened at $100m market cap plus, has underperformed the Russell 3000 going back to 2006 (148.9% to 196.4%). So you might ask, "why bother"? It is a fair question. I have two answers: (1) I have found subsets of MFI that have done better and (2) value stocks are more likely to outperform in tougher times, like recessions.
Dividend Index
I also have a basket of 40 income-generating securities as a second benchmark (to help me create "blended" benchmark. As I am retired, I do have a number of income type securities in my "non-MFI" basket. Here are the fab 40:
| Ticker | 12/30/2017 | Current | Dividend | YTD Change | Monthly Change | Yield |
| AMLP | 10.79 | 10.68 | 0.62 | 4.7% | 0.3% | 7.73% |
| NML | 9.38 | 8.69 | 0.50 | -2.1% | -3.2% | 7.59% |
| EPD | 26.51 | 28.73 | 1.26 | 13.1% | -2.2% | 5.94% |
| ETP | 17.92 | 22.26 | 1.70 | 33.7% | 9.0% | 10.17% |
| FDD | 13.73 | 13.11 | 0.44 | -1.3% | -2.1% | 3.89% |
| VGK | 59.15 | 56.22 | 1.13 | -3.1% | -2.6% | 3.42% |
| DDAIF | 84.57 | 63.03 | 3.25 | -21.6% | -8.4% | 7.13% |
| NVS | 83.96 | 86.16 | 2.75 | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.45% |
| NOBL | 64.04 | 66.81 | 0.67 | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.08% |
| VYM | 85.63 | 87.09 | 1.24 | 3.2% | 1.4% | 2.93% |
| MRK | 56.27 | 70.94 | 1.44 | 28.6% | 11.7% | 2.69% |
| PEP | 119.92 | 111.80 | 2.42 | -4.8% | -2.2% | 3.09% |
| VNQ | 82.98 | 80.68 | 1.95 | -0.4% | 0.1% | 4.77% |
| RQI | 12.65 | 12.25 | 0.72 | 2.5% | 2.6% | 7.07% |
| TCO | 65.43 | 59.83 | 1.88 | -5.7% | -0.3% | 4.32% |
| SLG | 100.93 | 97.53 | 1.55 | -1.8% | -3.2% | 3.33% |
| T | 38.88 | 33.58 | 1.47 | -9.9% | 8.0% | 5.92% |
| VZ | 52.93 | 53.39 | 1.68 | 4.0% | 2.7% | 4.41% |
| CHL | 50.54 | 48.93 | 0.80 | -1.6% | 9.6% | 4.47% |
| DTEGY | 17.66 | 16.03 | 0.68 | -5.4% | -2.3% | 4.80% |
| DSU | 11.70 | 11.14 | 0.62 | 0.5% | -0.7% | 6.76% |
| HIO | 5.07 | 4.76 | 0.26 | -1.0% | -0.2% | 6.85% |
| MUB | 110.74 | 107.94 | 1.89 | -0.8% | -1.0% | 2.36% |
| PRHYX | 6.76 | 6.53 | 0.24 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.40% |
| NEA | 13.75 | 12.66 | 0.54 | -4.0% | -2.8% | 5.36% |
| JNK | 36.72 | 36.05 | 1.49 | 2.2% | 0.6% | 5.43% |
| VWITX | 14.13 | 13.77 | 0.28 | -0.6% | -0.9% | 2.80% |
| PHMIX | 9.09 | 9.04 | 0.29 | 2.6% | -0.7% | 2.80% |
| UTG | 30.94 | 30.66 | 1.44 | 3.7% | 2.1% | 4.20% |
| XLU | 52.65 | 52.67 | 1.26 | 2.4% | 0.1% | 3.44% |
| DUK | 84.11 | 80.02 | 2.67 | -1.7% | -1.3% | 4.50% |
| EIX | 63.24 | 67.68 | 1.09 | 8.7% | 1.8% | 3.58% |
| PFF | 38.07 | 37.13 | 1.62 | 1.8% | -1.3% | 5.63% |
| JPC | 10.34 | 9.27 | 0.59 | -4.7% | -0.9% | 8.25% |
| WFC-PL | 1,309.99 | 1,290.88 | 37.50 | 1.4% | 1.8% | 5.80% |
| TIP | 114.08 | 110.62 | 1.89 | -1.4% | -1.0% | 3.31% |
| SHY | 83.85 | 83.09 | 0.71 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 1.47% |
| TLT | 126.86 | 117.27 | 2.30 | -5.8% | -1.8% | 2.68% |
| Totals | - | - | - | 1.2% | 0.5% | 4.73% |
Treasuries (TLT) have struggled, down 5.8%. Daimler-Chrysler (down 28%) has been a huge drag. But MRK is up 28%... pharmas, in my mind, have been defying gravity of late.
MFI Select
Ok, enough about indexes. I assume most are hear to laugh at how poorly my real money investments are performing. MFI Select is a a portfolio of 4 tranches of MFI stocks, with each tranche containing 5 stocks. I buy and hold each tranche for a year. I started MFI Select in 2012 (August). As the name connotes, I "select" whatever stocks I want and even go beyond official list as I feel comfortable from my own stock screens.
I started MFI Select after quitting MFI investing for a year back in 2011 from frustration at results. My reboot was based upon extensive analysis of what worked and what didn't work in MFI. Frankly, I have found that there are too many "stinkers", stocks that drop 30% or more in a year. Many of these are stocks that don't have sustainable/repeatable earnings. In my view, it is good to avoid those.
Here are my four open tranches:
| 11/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| MSGN | $16.67 | $25.80 | $0.00 | 54.8% | 14.6% |
| CELG | $100.60 | $89.49 | $0.00 | -11.0% | 14.6% |
| EVC | $5.78 | $4.90 | $0.20 | -11.8% | 14.6% |
| SIMO | $46.88 | $53.70 | $0.90 | 16.5% | 14.6% |
| VIAB | $24.41 | $33.76 | $0.80 | 41.6% | 14.6% |
| Totals | 18.0% | 14.6% | |||
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $43.00 | $0.50 | -0.1% | 4.4% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $14.75 | $0.00 | -21.6% | 4.4% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $101.71 | $2.09 | -5.5% | 4.4% |
| THO | $136.33 | $83.70 | $0.74 | -38.1% | 4.4% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $58.54 | $1.50 | -31.6% | 4.4% |
| Totals | -19.4% | 4.4% | |||
| 5/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CAAP | $12.19 | $8.54 | $0.00 | -29.9% | 10.9% |
| TGNA | $10.51 | $11.96 | $0.14 | 15.2% | 10.9% |
| DISCA | $23.85 | $32.00 | $0.00 | 34.2% | 10.9% |
| FTSI | $19.39 | $11.79 | $0.00 | -39.2% | 10.9% |
| ICHR | $21.96 | $20.42 | $0.00 | -7.0% | 10.9% |
| Totals | -5.4% | 10.9% | |||
| 8/15/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $39.45 | $43.00 | $0.00 | 9.0% | 2.0% |
| AMCX | $60.97 | $66.34 | $0.00 | 8.8% | 2.0% |
| CJREF | $3.08 | $3.27 | $0.00 | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| GME | $15.50 | $15.27 | $0.38 | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| SGH | $31.12 | $28.74 | $0.00 | -7.6% | 2.0% |
| Totals | 3.5% | 2.0% |
So I have two leading (but not by a lot) and two trailing (by substantial amounts). Obviously, that is not optimal. You can see that while I brag about avoiding stinkers, I have 4 (right now) in my 10 picks in February and May tranches. This is pretty uncharted waters for me, I have been very good since 2012 in avoiding stinkers. We still have time to turn some of these names around (CAAP, FTSI, THO and WDC).
Here is a table showing how these stocks did in past month:
| Stock | Last Month | Current | Dividend | Change |
| AGX | 39.80 | 43.00 | - | 8.0% |
| MSGN | 24.30 | 25.80 | - | 6.2% |
| ICHR | 25.93 | 20.42 | - | -21.2% |
| DISCA | 27.83 | 32.00 | - | 15.0% |
| SIMO | 58.90 | 53.70 | - | -8.8% |
| KLAC | 116.21 | 101.71 | - | -12.5% |
| VIAB | 29.28 | 33.76 | 0.20 | 16.0% |
| TGNA | 11.64 | 11.96 | 0.07 | 3.4% |
| AMCX | 62.81 | 66.34 | - | 5.6% |
| CELG | 94.45 | 89.49 | - | -5.3% |
| SGH | 32.99 | 28.74 | - | -12.9% |
| CASA | 14.69 | 14.75 | - | 0.4% |
| EVC | 5.25 | 4.90 | 0.05 | -5.7% |
| GME | 13.27 | 15.27 | 0.38 | 17.9% |
| CJREF | 2.85 | 3.27 | - | 14.7% |
| WDC | 63.24 | 58.54 | 0.50 | -6.6% |
| THO | 95.44 | 83.70 | - | -12.3% |
| CAAP | 9.10 | 8.54 | - | -6.2% |
| FTSI | 11.03 | 11.79 | - | 6.9% |
First, these are basically in descending order of size. You can see it was a tough month for semi stocks as KLAC was down 12% and ICHR a hurtful 21%, finally SGH off 13%. That is a lot of headwind.
Here is a table that shows how all my tranches in MFI Select have done (in consolidated form, not individual stocks:
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 3.5% | 18.0% | -19.4% | -5.4% | -1.7% |
| Previous Tranche | 27.8% | 42.6% | 74.9% | -3.6% | 44.8% |
| Tranche -2 | -0.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 19.1% | 9.5% |
| Tranche -3 | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 8.2% |
| Tranche -4 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
| Tranche -5 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
| Tranche -6 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 143.8% | 405.8% | 158.9% | 27.9% | 184.1% |
| Current Balance | 60,953 | 126,460 | 64,716 | 31,966 | 284,097 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 2.0% | 14.6% | 4.4% | 10.9% | 8.0% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 130.3% | 134.9% | 110.7% | 97.3% | 118.3% |
| R3K Balance | 57,568 | 58,736 | 52,679 | 49,314 | 218,297 |
| Annualized IRR | 15.7% | 31.8% | 18.3% | 4.7% | 17.6% |
So you can see annualized IRR of 17.6% Some great tranches if you look at individual numbers. But current 4 are down 1.7% (yuck) versus 8.0% for open benchmark. Can't win them all.
Here is a table showing quarter by quarter gains if you had put $100,000 into the first 4 tranches and then just reinvested:
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
| 4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
| 7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
| 10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
| 1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
| 4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
| 7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
| 10/1/2017 | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
| 1/1/2018 | 92.19% | 291,114 | 198,926 |
| 4/1/2018 | 96.21% | 293,665 | 197,451 |
| 7/1/2018 | 68.20% | 273,125 | 204,921 |
| Current | 65.80% | 284,097 | 218,297 |
So, my 2018 slump continues for MFI Select. But overall it is still leading nicely. Onward.
MFI Formula
My second MFI real money portfolio is MFI Formula. Pretty much opposite of Select, in MFI Formula I pick my stocks purely by formula and random number generator. I have been using this approach since October 2014.
| 10/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DIN | $43.14 | $81.31 | $2.86 | 95.1% | 16.7% |
| GILD | $82.85 | $77.21 | $2.23 | -4.1% | 16.7% |
| GME | $20.50 | $15.27 | $1.52 | -18.1% | 16.7% |
| HPQ | $20.22 | $25.77 | $0.53 | 30.1% | 16.7% |
| OMC | $74.80 | $68.02 | $2.35 | -5.9% | 16.7% |
| Totals | 19.4% | 16.7% | |||
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $207.29 | $3.96 | 19.3% | 9.1% |
| GME | $18.06 | $15.27 | $1.14 | -9.1% | 9.1% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $77.21 | $1.71 | 10.2% | 9.1% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $25.75 | $0.74 | 0.6% | 9.1% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $68.02 | $1.80 | -4.1% | 9.1% |
| Totals | 3.4% | 9.1% | |||
| 4/3/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $166.46 | $207.29 | $2.64 | 26.1% | 12.4% |
| VIAB | $29.20 | $33.76 | $0.40 | 17.0% | 12.4% |
| GILD | $72.71 | $77.21 | $1.14 | 7.8% | 12.4% |
| TUP | $47.32 | $33.45 | $1.36 | -26.4% | 12.4% |
| EGOV | $13.29 | $14.80 | $0.16 | 12.6% | 12.4% |
| Totals | 7.4% | 12.4% | |||
| 7/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.90 | $3.27 | $0.19 | -11.3% | 6.9% |
| GILD | $70.80 | $77.21 | $0.57 | 9.9% | 6.9% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $22.87 | $0.21 | 1.2% | 6.9% |
| KLAC | $102.03 | $101.71 | $0.75 | 0.4% | 6.9% |
| TUP | $40.09 | $33.45 | $0.68 | -14.9% | 6.9% |
| Totals | -2.9% | 6.9% |
So just one leading and you can see by eyeballing my open tranches and see my open positions are trailing.
Here is how my MFI Formula stocks did over past month:
| Stock | Last Month | Current | Dividend | Change |
| GILD | 75.73 | 77.21 | 0.57 | 2.7% |
| AMGN | 199.81 | 207.29 | - | 3.7% |
| TUP | 32.52 | 33.45 | 0.68 | 5.0% |
| OMC | 69.32 | 68.02 | 0.60 | -1.0% |
| EGOV | 16.80 | 14.80 | 0.08 | -11.4% |
| GME | 13.27 | 15.27 | 0.38 | 17.9% |
| KLAC | 116.21 | 101.71 | - | -12.5% |
| VIAB | 29.28 | 33.76 | 0.20 | 16.0% |
| DIN | 83.42 | 81.31 | 0.63 | -1.8% |
| IPG | 23.35 | 22.87 | 0.25 | -1.0% |
| HRB | 27.06 | 25.75 | 0.14 | -4.3% |
| CJREF | 2.85 | 3.27 | - | 14.7% |
| HPQ | 24.65 | 25.77 | 0.14 | 5.1% |
VIAB really moved up with CBS leadership issues. KLAC warned of a slowdown .
Here is table summarizing all tranches:
| Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
| Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
| Current Tranche | 19.4% | 3.4% | 7.4% | -2.9% | 5.5% |
| Previous Tranche | 7.0% | 16.5% | 21.3% | 37.3% | 20.6% |
| Tranche -2 | 5.5% | 9.3% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 16.7% |
| Tranche -3 | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | -0.3% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 35.4% | 46.1% | 62.7% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| Current Balance | 338,282 | 365,081 | 407,046 | 369,216 | 1,479,625 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 16.7% | 9.1% | 12.4% | 6.9% | 11.3% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 56.6% | 47.2% | 45.6% | 46.0% | 48.9% |
| R3K Balance | 391,117 | 367,995 | 364,258 | 364,702 | 1,488,072 |
| Annualized IRR | 7.9% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.5% |
the 11.5% annual IRR is solid, not as good as Select, but MFI Formula missed out on a couple years that were very good MFI years (note Tranche -5 for MFI Select was up 49%). Like Select, Formula open positions are trailing benchmark 5.5% to 11.3%. And in a couple days the October 19.4% will roll off Current Tranche and into Previous tranche, so then disparity may widen for open positions.
Finally, here is table showing how $100,000 would have grown.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
| 4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
| 7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
| 10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
| 1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
| 4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
| 7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
| 10/1/2017 | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
| 1/1/2018 | -3.63% | 131,460 | 135,086 |
| 4/1/2018 | -0.16% | 133,734 | 133,898 |
| 7/1/2018 | 2.28% | 141,126 | 138,849 |
| Current | -0.85% | 147,963 | 148,808 |
So, MFI Formula has been back and forth with benchmark over the years. I'll note that is much better than MFI in general. If you look at my table in very beginning on MFI Index, its probably trailing r3k by 12 points from 2015 forward.
Non-MFI
For those here to read about MFI... c'est fini. I actually have more money in non-MFI, as I focus on Income, Shipping and Energy plays (mostly). I have also started regularly selling puts, so far it that approach has been a slight positive.
Energy Holdings
I continue to like energy, with oil starting to push $80 - some of these firms can really ring the register. I also have some natural gas and some solar holdings.
| Ticker | Bought | Current | Dividend | Gain | Weight |
| APA | 40.57 | 47.68 | 0.25 | 18.1% | 0.8% |
| AR | 18.57 | 17.75 | - | -4.4% | 1.3% |
| CHK | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.01 | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| ECA | 12.40 | 13.11 | 0.03 | 6.0% | 2.7% |
| ETP | 19.22 | 22.30 | 0.57 | 19.0% | 1.6% |
| FSLR | 51.46 | 48.42 | - | -5.9% | 1.0% |
| KMI | 16.73 | 17.73 | 0.20 | 7.2% | 2.2% |
| XOP | 41.92 | 43.31 | 0.06 | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| OXY | 82.59 | 82.15 | 1.26 | 1.0% | 2.3% |
| PXD | 188.01 | 174.19 | - | -7.4% | 1.4% |
| RRC | 15.96 | 17.00 | - | 6.5% | 0.7% |
| SEDG | 47.39 | 37.65 | - | -20.6% | 0.9% |
| SPWR | 7.34 | 7.30 | - | -0.5% | 0.9% |
| SWN | 4.74 | 5.75 | - | 21.3% | 0.8% |
| WPX | 17.81 | 20.12 | - | 12.9% | 1.2% |
| Total | 3.0% |
So this portfolio is doing decently. Up 3% since I started in June. It is actually doing better as these are the open holdings. I sold my USOU in September (a 3x play on US Oil) for a 30% gain (although i'd be 40% if I had held). I also sold the SWN last week in what was a timely move. I decided I didn't like some of their recent moves. SEDG is a solar play and has really struggled.
Shipping
It was a terrible month for my shipping names. The trade war seems to be weighing down on the rightly or wrongly. But some of the fundamentals are so good right now. Dry Bulk rates are moving up (good for NMM), LNG rates are sky high (great short term for GLNG and longer term for TGP/TK). ANW is frustrating, I keep waiting for their 20-F (like a 10-K). It is way overdue and the more overdue it is, the more nervous I get that there is more wrong than I think. You can go on Seeking Alpha and find some real haters. The stock got to $1.90 during the month... I should have probably lightened my position but didn't. SSW should get called from me, I sold calls that expire October 19th for $7.50. I also have bought LPG, which doesn't show up here... I'll add next month. They have a buyout offer (around $10) that may be sweetened. You can see TGP is my single largest position.
Shipping
It was a terrible month for my shipping names. The trade war seems to be weighing down on the rightly or wrongly. But some of the fundamentals are so good right now. Dry Bulk rates are moving up (good for NMM), LNG rates are sky high (great short term for GLNG and longer term for TGP/TK). ANW is frustrating, I keep waiting for their 20-F (like a 10-K). It is way overdue and the more overdue it is, the more nervous I get that there is more wrong than I think. You can go on Seeking Alpha and find some real haters. The stock got to $1.90 during the month... I should have probably lightened my position but didn't. SSW should get called from me, I sold calls that expire October 19th for $7.50. I also have bought LPG, which doesn't show up here... I'll add next month. They have a buyout offer (around $10) that may be sweetened. You can see TGP is my single largest position.
| Ticker | Bought | Current | Dividend | Gain | %Portfolio |
| ANW | 1.27 | 1.43 | - | 12.2% | 2.2% |
| CPLP | 3.39 | 2.78 | 0.25 | -10.7% | 1.9% |
| GLOP-PB | 25.36 | 25.41 | 1.35 | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| GLNG | 23.56 | 27.80 | 0.13 | 18.5% | 1.9% |
| NMM | 1.91 | 1.75 | 0.03 | -6.9% | 2.4% |
| SSW | 6.84 | 7.50 | 1.15 | 26.5% | 0.8% |
| TGP | 16.83 | 16.68 | 0.19 | 0.2% | 4.0% |
| TK | 7.91 | 6.74 | 0.09 | -13.6% | 2.6% |
| TNK | 1.00 | 0.99 | - | -1.6% | 0.7% |
| Total | 1.1% | 18.4% |
Other Holdings
OIBAX - an international bond play (for income) that isn't doing very well. I am tempted to sell all the time.
LADR - another Income play, this has been great. My basis is 13.35, I have another $1.26 in dividends and stock is almost $17.
KCLI - my least favorite (ha ha) and very ill-liquid life insurer. I can probably never sell as so lightly traded. But that might be good as they are 40% under-valued. So I just watch the paint dry.
WLFC - another stock way under book value and also very lightly traded. I will also hold (just like KCLI) until some catalyst comes along.
OMER - one of my two speculative biotech/pharma plays. I have made a lot on OMER, up 35%. I did sell 25% of my position last week (was actually called out at $24).
NRZ - another income play and has also been successful like LADR. I have a $16.57 basis along with $2.67 of dividends. This mReit is trading at $17.83.
TGONF - another income play trading WAY under book and also very lightly traded. I just collect my 6% dividend and wait for catalyst to take this $13 stock closer to $21 NAV,
TTOO - my second speculative pharma equipment play. It bounces up and down a lot, but as they place more of their machines in hospitals it'll be like owning a razor blade company with a lot of razors in circulation.
I think that's a wrap. Off to watch RedZone.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment