Saturday, February 17, 2018

MFI Diary - Weekend Update 2/17/18

MFI Diary Weekend Update 2/17/18

As George Washington says to Hamilton in the great Hamilton Musical, "Dying is easy, Living is hard".  So it is with investing. "Investing is easy, beating the markets is hard".

It continues to be a struggle for me - all due to my miscellaneous portfolio.  I try to hit too many home runs there and end up striking out a lot.  OMER and NMM were my latest whiffs.

You have found your way to the MFI Diary.  This is a blog following the investment approach described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats The Market.  I have been writing this blog and following his investment approach since early 2006.

I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some key/interesting posts. I encourage you to give it a whirl Guide To New Readers).  (PS - I continue to struggle to make this link work.  You can instead go to Blog archive on left margin of this blog and you will find a link in October 2017). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor.  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.


Onwards.

Last Week

I seemingly had a good week, up 2.5%.  But the R3K was up 4.3% and the Dividend Index was up 1.8%, which blends to 3.6%.  It is frustrating to underperform, but hey - at least I am upfront about it.  That being said, what this diary is really about, MFI, is doing great here in 2018.


Here is table of performance so far in 2018:


 Component   YTD   Week Change 
 Overall  -2.1% +2.5%
 MFI Select  +2.0% +3.3%
 MFI Formula  +5.3% +5.5%
 MFI Combined  +3.6% +4.4%
 Miscellaneous  -9.8% +1.1%
 Dividend  -2.9% +1.6%
 Dividend Index  -2.3% +1.8%
 R3K Index  +2.1% +4.3%
 Blended Index  +0.3% +3.6%
 MFI Index  +8.6% +6.7%
 GARIX  +1.8% +2.9%


One can see the R3K benchmark is 2.1%.  All the MFI measurements look decent against that - my MFI combined is 3.6%, the MFI Index is 8.6% (wow) and GARIX is 1.8%.

But my dividend portfolio is -2.9% and misc is an atrocious -9.8%.  The proverbial match in the dynamite factory is being carried by moi.

Here is a table I only show occasionally.  This shows my MFI Index (50 stocks at start of year from official screen - reconstituted once a year) by year, both for the year and inception to date back to 2006 (bold = MFI win:


 Annual   Inception to Date 
 Year   Russell   MFI   Russell ITD   MFI ITD 
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.43% 9.70% 32.57% 16.56%
2013 33.01% 51.70% 76.34% 76.82%
2014 12.26% 12.07% 97.95% 98.15%
2015 0.38% -8.95% 98.33% 89.37%
2016 12.50% 13.19% 110.62% 101.16%
2017 20.82% 4.74% 133.65% 105.95%
2018 2.08% 8.64% 138.51% 123.75%

I know MFI has lost to benchmark over time.  But that gap is narrowing; 138.5% to 123.8%.

MFI Select

As my 50 readers know (ok, a few more than that from time to time), I have two real money MFI portfolios that I track here.  The first is MFI Select.  As the name infers, these are MFI stocks that I select pretty much free form.  I started this approach in August 2012 and it consists of 4 tranches of 5 stocks each.  I pick most of my stocks from the official screen, but I do run my own screens and occasionally pick from there.

I began MFI Select after quitting MFI for a year back in 2011.  I had started MFI back in 2006, but tossed in the towel in 2011 from frustration.  The "problem" with MFI is there has always been a great deal of variance amongst individual stocks.  There are just some real stinkers on the screens.  It is critical to keep these (I define a stinker as a stock that drops 30% or more) away from real money.  In all my tracking, stinkers have been about 1 in 7, 14%.

Here are how my stocks fared in what was a great week for the markets post the 'correction'.


 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 MSGN              23.25         25.05                       -   7.7%
 SIMO              44.61         44.77                       -   0.4%
 VIAB              32.87         33.50                       -   1.9%
 CASA              18.04         19.27                       -   6.8%
 KLAC            100.90       107.52                  0.59 7.1%
 THO            127.57       124.83                       -   -2.1%
 AGX              39.50         40.40                       -   2.3%
 WDC              80.59         84.91                       -   5.4%
 EVC                6.50            6.80                       -   4.6%
 ICHR              21.34         25.17                       -   17.9%
 CELG              92.51         95.26                       -   3.0%
 RHI              53.22         56.20                       -   5.6%
 MD              53.94         56.61                       -   4.9%
 QCOM              63.99         64.85                       -   1.3%
 GHC            577.00       599.85                       -   4.0%
 TGNA              22.41         23.54                       -   5.0%
 Average  4.7%

I don't think I need to tell anyone that that is a good week. ICHR is wild, seems to swing 5% plus, up and down, every week.  QCOM has a bid for $80 from AVGO - I will be voting in favor of it.

Here are my 4 tranches:


5/6/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 WSTC  $24.15 $23.50 $0.00 -2.7% 14.9%
 TGNA  $25.75 $23.54 $0.21 -7.8% 14.9%
 TIME  $15.05 $18.50 $0.08 23.5% 14.9%
 MSGN  $23.55 $25.05 $0.00 6.4% 14.9%
 QCOM  $54.93 $64.85 $1.71 21.2% 14.9%
 Totals  8.1% 14.9%
8/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GHC  $591.10 $599.85 $2.54 1.9% 11.9%
 ICHR  $19.80 $25.17 $0.00 27.1% 11.9%
 MD  $43.00 $56.61 $0.00 31.7% 11.9%
 SIMO  $43.05 $44.77 $0.60 5.4% 11.9%
 RHI  $44.15 $56.20 $0.48 28.4% 11.9%
 Totals  18.9% 11.9%
11/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MSGN  $16.67 $25.05 $0.00 50.3% 6.6%
 CELG  $100.60 $95.26 $0.00 -5.3% 6.6%
 EVC  $5.78 $6.80 $0.05 18.5% 6.6%
 SIMO  $46.88 $44.77 $0.30 -3.9% 6.6%
 VIAB  $24.41 $33.50 $0.20 38.1% 6.6%
 Totals  19.5% 6.6%
2/1/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.55 $40.40 $0.00 -7.2% -2.9%
 CASA  $18.81 $19.27 $0.00 2.4% -2.9%
 KLAC  $109.80 $107.52 $0.59 -1.5% -2.9%
 THO  $136.33 $124.83 $0.00 -8.4% -2.9%
 WDC  $87.74 $84.91 $0.00 -3.2% -2.9%
 Totals  -3.6% -2.9%

Overall, still pretty decent.  My most recent tranche, Feb 1st, is not exactly off to a roaring start.  My 10 rejects are doing better, down 1.3%.  But November and August are strong tranches.  May is down to just 3 stocks as TIME and WSTC have been bought.  So its upside is hampered.


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  18.9% 19.5% -3.6% 8.1% 9.6%
 Previous Tranche  -0.1% 42.6% 74.9% 19.1% 36.0%
 Tranche -2  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% -25.2% -0.9%
 Tranche -3  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 21.2%
 Tranche -4  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -5  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 34.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  119.1% 412.4% 209.5% 51.5% 198.1%
 Current Balance         54,783           128,102           77,366        37,863         298,114
 R3K Current Tranche  11.9% 6.6% -2.9% 14.9% 7.6%
 R3K Overall Gain  114.2% 118.6% 96.0% 83.3% 103.0%
 R3K Balance         53,561             54,650           49,001        45,833         203,046
 Annualized IRR  15.3% 36.4% 25.1% 9.1% 21.5%

Here is table of summary of all tranches.  The 21.5% annualized IRR continues to stun me.  The 198.1% overall gain means if I had started with $100,000, I have almost tripled it. (readers should remember this table is more hypothetical as it assumes one never adds extra dollars.  I have regularly added extra dollars at anniversary dates of tranches and last year and this year have been increasing stakes significantly (30 to 35%)).

Finally, here is a quarter by quarter table documenting the growth of hypothetical $100,000.


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
Current 95.07%        298,114            203,046

Pretty good, right?  that is a russell 3000 stomp.

MFI Formula

This is my 2nd real money MFI portfolio.  while in "select", I have free form in how I pick my stocks, in formula I follow a set of "rules". (1) run official screen for 50 stocks over 120m. (2) filter the list to largest 34 by market cap. (3) filter list further to those with dividend yield 2.4% or greater. And (4) randomly select 5 stocks from remaining list (usually 10 to 12 names).

This formula is based on my analysis of MFI stocks since 2006.  Sometimes I don't like the names - that is why I force a random number generator.  At times I get same names in multiple tranches.  I live with that.

Here is how the stocks did this past week (very, very well):


 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GILD              79.32         80.70                       -   1.7%
 OMC              76.95         78.72                       -   2.3%
 GME              16.17         16.40                       -   1.4%
 SYNT              21.48         26.87                       -   25.1%
 CSCO              39.53         44.33                       -   12.1%
 HPQ              20.11         21.40                       -   6.4%
 AMGN            173.46       183.55                       -   5.8%
 HRB              24.92         28.04                       -   12.5%
 BKE              21.40         21.95                       -   2.6%
 DIN              53.91         54.67                       -   1.4%
 RGR              49.55         50.30                       -   1.5%

SYNT and CSCO each had strong earnings this past week.  Not sure about HRB pop.  OMC had not so good earnings, but still was up 2.3%.

4/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BKE  $18.45 $21.95 $2.75 33.9% 16.8%
 CSCO  $33.76 $44.33 $1.16 34.8% 16.8%
 GILD  $67.50 $80.70 $1.56 21.9% 16.8%
 OMC  $85.53 $78.72 $1.65 -6.0% 16.8%
 SYNT  $16.76 $26.87 $0.00 60.3% 16.8%
 Totals  29.0% 16.8%
7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $44.33 $0.58 45.0% 13.4%
 GME  $20.95 $16.40 $0.76 -18.1% 13.4%
 HPQ  $17.60 $21.40 $0.27 23.1% 13.4%
 RGR  $60.70 $50.30 $0.44 -16.4% 13.4%
 SYNT  $16.21 $26.87 $0.00 65.8% 13.4%
 Totals  19.9% 13.4%
10/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DIN  $43.14 $54.67 $0.97 29.0% 8.6%
 GILD  $82.85 $80.70 $0.52 -2.0% 8.6%
 GME  $20.50 $16.40 $0.38 -18.1% 8.6%
 HPQ  $20.22 $21.40 $0.13 6.5% 8.6%
 OMC  $74.80 $78.72 $0.55 6.0% 8.6%
 Totals  4.3% 8.6%
1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $183.55 $1.32 4.4% 1.5%
 GME  $18.06 $16.40 $0.00 -9.2% 1.5%
 GILD  $71.64 $80.70 $0.00 12.6% 1.5%
 HRB  $26.34 $28.04 $0.00 6.5% 1.5%
 OMC  $72.81 $78.72 $0.00 8.1% 1.5%
 Totals  4.5% 1.5%

Don't go too fast here.  Savor it.  Three of my four tranches are winning.  And July and April are winning handily. Woo-hoo.


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  4.3% 4.5% 29.0% 19.9% 13.4%
 Previous Tranche  7.0% 16.5% 25.2% 26.7% 19.4%
 Tranche -2  5.5% 9.3% -0.2% -12.5% 0.5%
 Tranche -3  0.5% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%
 MFI Overall Gain  18.2% 47.7% 61.0% 32.9% 40.0%
 Current Balance      295,383        369,067     402,808      331,972      1,399,230
 R3K Current Tranche  8.6% 1.5% 16.8% 13.4% 10.1%
 R3K Overall Gain  45.7% 37.0% 36.3% 32.1% 37.7%
 R3K Balance      363,910        342,299     340,942      329,769      1,376,919
 Annualized IRR  5.1% 13.2% 17.9% 11.4% 11.9%
So annualized IRR is 11.9%.  That is solid.  And look, my 4 current tranches are up average of 13.4% versus 10.1% for benchmark.  Doesn't seem huge, but if you can win by 3 points a year over time - compounding starts to really work in your favor.

Then here is quarter by quarter movements of the $100,000.  See if you see anything special about most recent quarter:


 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
Current 2.23%        139,923            137,691

Wow!  Do a little jig!  Back in the lead.  Now do not get too excited. While this is first lead since start of 2017 (at quarter ends), I have had interim leads before.  Definitely still a horse race.

Dividend Portfolio

Ok, for those here just for MFI... i am done.  But I also have two other real money portfolios that I chart here for posterity... certainly not for bragging.  My dividend portfolio is actually my largest $  portfolio - as a retired person I am now trying to generate an income stream.


 Dividend Stocks  Start  Current   Divvy   Overall Pct Gain   Weekly Pct Gain   12/30/17 Price   Yield 
 OIBAX      5.91         6.08      0.21 6.4% 1.3%           5.96 3.9%
 TK      7.37         7.47      0.10 2.8% -1.7%           9.32 2.9%
 KCLI    48.89       42.90      0.60 -11.0% -0.9%        45.25 2.5%
 KNOP    21.30       21.15      0.52 1.7% 6.5%        20.75 9.8%
 GLOP-PB    25.36       25.02           -   -1.3% 0.7%        25.36 8.2%
 CPLP      3.53         3.15      0.16 -6.4% 3.6%           3.36 10.2%
 TGP    18.28       18.80      0.14 3.6% 2.5%        20.15 3.0%
 NS    37.37       24.15      1.83 -30.5% -0.6%        29.95 9.9%
 LADR    13.01       14.78      0.62 18.4% 2.9%        13.63 8.5%
 JQC      8.18         8.08      0.72 7.6% 0.2%           8.22 7.1%
 PSXP    47.39       50.25      1.71 9.6% 2.0%        52.35 5.4%
 FDEU    18.40       18.88      1.06 8.4% 4.9%        18.83 7.7%
 ISBC    13.25       13.92      0.24 6.9% 5.1%        13.88 2.6%
 EVG    14.46       13.73      0.41 -2.2% -0.2%        14.35 6.7%
 RILY    15.58       19.15      0.21 24.3% -0.5%        18.10 2.5%
 RLJ-PA    28.45       25.55      0.98 -6.8% -0.1%        27.01 7.7%
 NRZ    16.56       16.89      1.17 9.0% 3.6%        17.88 11.8%
 SBRA    22.28       17.00      0.63 -20.8% 2.0%        18.77 10.6%
 DSL    19.47       19.83      2.14 12.9% -0.7%        20.19 9.1%
 OCSI      8.68         7.81      0.38 -5.6% 1.0%           8.40 9.7%
 TGONF    11.04       13.10      1.79 34.9% 0.4%        13.30 5.3%
 AMID    13.25       12.10      0.41 -5.6% 0.0%        13.35 13.6%
 TOO      2.33         2.45      0.01 5.4% 8.9%           2.36 1.6%
 O    25.82       49.96    21.18 175.5% 2.2%        57.02 5.1%
 Totals  2.0% 1.6% 6.5%

If you look at 12/31/17 price and current price, you can see TK, NS, SBRA and O have all been problematic in 2018.  I typically do not get too bent out of shape about drops in price as I am really focused on income (the 6.5% yield) shown here.  But NS did cut their distribution by 40%... so that is real income removed from my pocket.

Now income stocks/securities in general are under duress here in 2018 as 10 year treasury rates have risen and rising rates for bonds => lowered prices.  Here is the dividend index I measure against:


 Ticker  12/30/2017  Current   Dividend   YTD Change 
 AMLP                10.79          10.61               0.21 0.2%
 NML                  9.38             9.21               0.11 -0.6%
 EPD                26.51          26.41               0.42 1.2%
 ETP                17.92          18.55               0.57 6.7%
 FDD                13.73          14.16                    -   3.1%
 VGK                59.15          60.15                    -   1.7%
 DDAIF                84.57          90.29                    -   6.8%
 NVS                83.96          86.91                    -   3.5%
 NOBL                64.04          64.37                    -   0.5%
 VYM                85.63          86.08                    -   0.5%
 MRK                56.27          56.29                    -   0.0%
 PEP              119.92        111.06                    -   -7.4%
 VNQ                82.98          75.30                    -   -9.3%
 RQI                12.65          10.91               0.16 -12.5%
 TCO                65.43          60.74                    -   -7.2%
 SLG              100.93          96.20                    -   -4.7%
 T                38.88          37.14               0.49 -3.2%
 VZ                52.93          50.15               0.56 -4.2%
 CHL                50.54          47.89                    -   -5.2%
 DTEGY                17.66          16.33                    -   -7.5%
 DSU                11.70          11.50               0.14 -0.5%
 HIO                  5.07             4.89               0.03 -3.0%
 MUB              110.74        108.63               0.42 -1.5%
 PRHYX                  6.76             6.68               0.03 -0.7%
 NEA                13.75          13.26               0.12 -2.7%
 JNK                36.72          36.32               0.33 -0.2%
 VWITX                14.13          13.89               0.06 -1.3%
 PHMIX                  9.09             8.98               0.06 -0.5%
 UTG                30.94          28.86               0.32 -5.7%
 XLU                52.65          50.12                    -   -4.8%
 DUK                84.11          76.70                    -   -8.8%
 EIX                63.24          61.05                    -   -3.5%
 PFF                38.07          37.08               0.36 -1.7%
 JPC                10.34             9.68               0.13 -5.1%
 WFC-PL          1,309.99    1,275.00                    -   -2.7%
 TIP              114.08        111.80               0.42 -1.6%
 SHY                83.85          83.44               0.16 -0.3%
 TLT              126.86        118.71               0.51 -6.0%
 Totals                       -                    -                      -   -2.3%
Down 2.3% overall (note my dividend portfolio is down 2.9%... sigh).  It is tough sledding here.

Finally, I do have a group of 10 smallish banks in my dividend portfolio.  They are just below breakeven... so in today's dividend world I guess that is good, but I am not thrilled.


 Bank   Start   Current   Dividends   Change   Yield 
 ACBI          16.99          17.45                 -   2.7% 0.0%
 ASB          25.69          24.90                 -   -3.1% 2.4%
 FBIZ          23.69          24.68            0.14 4.8% 2.3%
 FULT          18.81          18.95            0.11 1.4% 2.4%
 FNB          14.47          14.51                 -   0.3% 3.4%
 MSBI          32.96          31.33            0.22 -4.3% 2.9%
 NRIM          37.47          33.75            0.21 -9.4% 2.6%
 PACW          48.30          54.40            0.50 13.7% 3.7%
 SONA          17.13          16.10            0.08 -5.5% 2.0%
 WNEB          10.88          10.20            0.04 -5.9% 1.6%
 Total  -0.5% 2.3%

I keep waiting for consolidation in this space.  But crickets so far.

Miscellaneous

Do I have to write about this busted leg in my stool?  Luckily it is the smallest leg of my three legged investing stool (MFI, Dividends and Misc) - but it is not inconsequential.  I am trying to maintain conviction with my picks, but am down 9% on the year.

Past week was dreadful.  NMM announced a secondary offering and promptly dropped 12%.  Then OMER was targeted by short sellers and was off over 20% on the week.  I know I have volatile names in my Misc portfolio, but didn't think it was all downwards volatility! (Ok I was up 1.5% this week on this portfolio, so I did have some winners - GLNG for example).

Anyway, as I said I am trying to have conviction behind picks and tune out the "noise".  But when the various stocks have their "catalyst", be it good or bad, I will back away.  I did sell WLL for a 20% loss this week.  It was just a bad impulsive decision that I need to stop making.

As part of Misc, I do own 10 smallish gold/mining stocks. These are never dull, rising 6% one day and dropping 4% the next:


 Miner   Start   Current   Change   2018 Change 
 TORXF            9.90          10.19 2.9% 7.2%
 SAND            4.48             4.83 7.8% -3.2%
 NSU            2.38             2.21 -7.1% -9.4%
 KLDX            2.41             1.55 -35.7% -40.6%
 KL          14.49          14.86 2.6% -3.3%
 GSS            0.87             0.73 -15.7% -18.0%
 FSM            4.24             4.60 8.5% -11.9%
 EXK            2.14             2.29 7.0% -4.2%
 BTG            2.61             2.91 11.5% -6.1%
 EGO            1.18             1.12 -5.1% -21.7%
 Total  -2.3% -11.1%

Have a great 3 day weekend everyone!  Snow here tonight (4 to 8").

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