So for those of you new to my blog, I have a total of 8 MFI tranches spread pretty much equally throughout the year. 4 are "Select", which means I allow myself pretty much free form to pick what I want and 4 are "Formula", which is based on a formula approach which I have back tested to 2006 and shown to be successful.
Of course, as I have pointed out in my regular updates - you will note my select approach (started in August 2012) has done quite well and my formula has kind of treaded water (started in October 2014).
Looking Back
I do like to use this time to show not just how the recently retired tranche did, but all my closed tranches. I color code and turn to black/grey/white when retired.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.21 | $0.50 | 13.5% | -0.6% |
| BKE | $45.55 | $36.97 | $3.68 | -10.8% | -0.6% |
| CA | $27.87 | $27.30 | $1.00 | 1.5% | -0.6% |
| GME | $41.70 | $41.21 | $1.41 | 2.2% | -0.6% |
| NUS | $44.56 | $41.28 | $1.40 | -4.2% | -0.6% |
| Totals | 0.5% | -0.6% | |||
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $29.26 | $1.00 | -1.8% | -0.3% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $27.70 | $0.82 | 0.6% | -0.3% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $60.08 | $1.10 | 75.7% | -0.3% |
| GME | $34.21 | $28.71 | $1.44 | -11.9% | -0.3% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $17.78 | $0.60 | -7.5% | -0.3% |
| Totals | 11.0% | -0.3% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $26.33 | $0.80 | -15.2% | -1.1% |
| GME | $37.69 | $32.12 | $1.45 | -10.9% | -1.1% |
| KING | $15.85 | $18.00 | $0.00 | 13.6% | -1.1% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $3.24 | $0.16 | -0.8% | -1.1% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $25.40 | $0.00 | 12.1% | -1.1% |
| Totals | -0.2% | -1.1% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $25.51 | $1.96 | -40.9% | -0.3% |
| CA | $29.34 | $31.53 | $1.01 | 10.9% | -0.3% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $49.29 | $1.39 | 14.1% | -0.3% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $53.45 | $1.97 | -12.0% | -0.3% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $40.81 | $1.60 | -34.5% | -0.3% |
| Totals | -12.5% | -0.3% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $24.03 | $1.98 | -29.4% | 13.6% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $16.14 | $0.60 | -23.8% | 13.6% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $68.50 | $2.02 | 31.9% | 13.6% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $31.72 | $0.94 | 23.9% | 13.6% |
| CA | $27.30 | $33.08 | $1.01 | 24.9% | 13.6% |
| Totals | 5.5% | 13.6% | |||
| 12/31/15 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BBY | $30.31 | $42.67 | $1.57 | 46.0% | 12.1% |
| GME | $28.34 | $25.45 | $1.48 | -5.0% | 12.1% |
| ILG | $15.89 | $18.17 | $0.48 | 17.4% | 12.1% |
| PPC | $22.22 | $19.14 | $2.75 | -1.5% | 12.1% |
| VIAB | $40.93 | $35.40 | $1.20 | -10.6% | 12.1% |
| Totals | 9.3% | 12.1% | |||
| 4/1/16 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CALM | $51.27 | $37.55 | $0.44 | -25.9% | 18.0% |
| HPQ | $12.10 | $17.88 | $0.51 | 51.9% | 18.0% |
| TIME | $15.24 | $19.35 | $0.76 | 31.9% | 18.0% |
| ILG | $13.85 | $20.96 | $0.51 | 55.0% | 18.0% |
| XPER | $30.79 | $33.95 | $0.80 | 12.9% | 18.0% |
| Totals | 25.2% | 18.0% |
You can peruse at your leisure. Obviously BKE has hurt. IQNT was oh so close, it got sold by me October 2016 at $16.14 and then a month later a buyout at $22.90 was announced.
Looking Forward
Here are the stocks that qualify for the formula right now (over 2.4% dividend plus upper 2/3 market cap from 50 stocks > 100m pull):
| Number | Ticker | Market Cap | Price | Dividend | Yield |
| 1 | BKE | 904 | 18.60 | 1.00 | 5.4% |
| 2 | CA | 13,109 | 31.72 | 1.02 | 3.2% |
| 3 | CSCO | 169,237 | 33.80 | 1.16 | 3.4% |
| 4 | GME | 2,265 | 22.55 | 1.52 | 6.7% |
| 5 | GILD | 88,839 | 67.92 | 2.08 | 3.1% |
| 6 | HPQ | 30,278 | 17.88 | 0.53 | 3.0% |
| 7 | OMC | 20,233 | 86.21 | 2.20 | 2.6% |
| 8 | PBI | 2,434 | 13.11 | 0.75 | 5.7% |
| 9 | RGR | 1,001 | 53.55 | 1.82 | 3.4% |
| 10 | SYNT | 1,408 | 16.83 | 14.00 | 83.2% |
I was disappointed CSGS did not make the cut (2.1% yield) as they look interesting. I then run a random number generator to pick my five stocks. I do allow myself the option of dropping one name from this list - but while I see a few names I am not super excited about, I see nothing that is an out and out punt.
Here are my five picks per Rand numbers:
| Random # | Stock |
| 1 | BKE |
| 3 | CSCO |
| 5 | GILD |
| 7 | OMC |
| 10 | SYNT |
BKE and GILD seem always challenged, but I will stick with the formula. I will only deviate if some material news comes out on Monday regarding any of these names. Interesting that none of these are in my expiring tranche.
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