Saturday, March 18, 2017

Weekend Update 3/18/17

Weekend Update

Another week zips by. Sipping a fruit smoothie made by my new Ninja IQ smoothie maker as the old one was starting to leak.

You have found your way to the MFI Diary.  This is my blog where I discuss many things related to "The Little Book That Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt.  I have been writing this blog since early 2006 and have tracked my performance with real money and tracking portfolios based on the official Magic Formula Investing (MFI) website.  I also have created an MFI Index, which is fifty MFI stocks and is reconstituted once a year.

Finally, I should mention that I am just a guy with a spreadsheet.  Not a CFA, not an expert... just a guy.  So please use what I write for information, but do your own diligence in making stock decisions.

So welcome!

The Past Week

First the important stuff.  I am 11th in my NCAA bracket out of 70 so far.  Was at #6 when I went to bed, but MSU and South Carolina both winning dropped me.  Then my alma mater fired our coach, Tom Crean - I am mixed about that.  He seems like a good person and did a lot to pick IU's program back up. But this year's team way under-performed their talent and had zero team chemistry.

For the week I was up about 50 basis points.  Here is where each of the portfolios stand as we go down the stretch on Q1:


 Component   YTD 
 Overall  +5.12%
 Select  +6.49%
 Formula  +2.33%
 Miscellaneous  +11.51%
 Dividend  +3.97%
 R3K  +6.22%
 MFI Index  -0.29%


Very similar to week ago.  While I am trailing in total, my 20% cash component is a drag and hey, +5% in a quarter is hard to be unhappy about.  The real story for those who read my blog to find out about magic formula investing is that the index continues to struggle - in the red at -29 basis points.  Nine of the 50 stocks (recall I take top 50 over 100m) are down 20% or more after just a quarter.  It is early to dissect the results, but I promise you that my themes are in place.  That is many of the losers are smaller cap stocks and those that do not have characteristics of Jake's Bubble Gum shop (earnings are not recurring).

MFI Select

I have two groups of MFI stocks with real money.  The first (and oldest) is MFI Select. This is 4 baskets of 5 stocks that I buy and hold for a year.  I have been doing this since my reboot in August 2012.  

This approach has done very well for me.  Note I am trying to avoid stocks that are on the screen, but in my view are not a true Jake's Bubble Gum Shop (ie a one hit wonder).  To be fair,  I have also had several stocks that did very well..

Here is my month by month performance, assuming I put in $100,000 spread over the 4 baskets evenly:

 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
12/1/2015 73.49%        223,435            149,946
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
2/1/2016 49.49%        187,428            137,934
3/1/2016 56.48%        194,415            137,934
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
5/1/2016 46.38%        194,301            147,923
6/1/2016 51.44%        201,999            150,558
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
8/1/2016 52.72%        207,223            154,501
9/1/2016 67.04%        222,481            155,446
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
11/1/2016 41.86%        195,726            153,863
12/1/2016 45.92%        202,775            156,859
1/1/2017 47.19%        209,503            162,313
2/1/2017 47.65%        212,330            164,675
3/1/2017 52.99%        222,583            169,589
Current 55.42%        225,784            170,367

Then here are how the individual stocks fared during the week:

 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 RHI              48.21                   49.54                       -   2.8%
 ATHM              35.61                   33.26                       -   -6.6%
 CA              32.40                   32.43                       -   0.1%
 AMGN            181.44                168.61                       -   -7.1%
 MPAA              27.86                   27.98                       -   0.4%
 AKRX              22.66                   22.32                       -   -1.5%
 MSGN              22.90                   23.05                       -   0.7%
 VLO              66.57                   68.90                       -   3.5%
 BRCD              12.47                   12.45                       -   -0.2%
 YY              46.81                   51.01                       -   9.0%
 CSCO              34.26                   34.23                       -   -0.1%
 KLAC              93.20                   94.69                       -   1.6%
 RGR              52.15                   53.55                       -   2.7%
 GILD              68.19                   69.06                       -   1.3%
 CBI              30.32                   29.76                       -   -1.8%
 GNC                7.51                     7.40                       -   -1.5%
 WNC              20.71                   21.14                       -   2.1%
 Average  0.3%

YY had their earnings during the week ( ).  I thought they were very positive, but stock sold off about 3% that day. But they bounced back.

AMGN felt some pain (ha, ha - get it?), I guess they announced the results of a big study for a drug ( ). I thought the results looked good (like a 20% reduction in stroke risk), but I guess I am naive and that is not enough (perhaps) to warrant the high price for the drug.

Here are all my tranches:

5/6/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 BRCD  $7.97 $12.45 $0.17 58.3% 18.8%
 CBI  $37.82 $29.76 $0.00 -21.3% 18.8%
 HSII  $18.51 $26.05 $0.39 42.8% 18.8%
 RHI  $38.51 $49.54 $0.90 31.0% 18.8%
 UTHR  $107.99 $142.08 $0.00 31.6% 18.8%
 Totals  28.5% 18.8%
8/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $31.20 $34.23 $0.26 10.5% 10.3%
 GNC  $19.79 $7.40 $0.38 -60.7% 10.3%
 VLO  $54.73 $68.90 $1.30 28.3% 10.3%
 MSGN  $16.68 $23.05 $0.00 38.2% 10.3%
 GILD  $79.33 $69.06 $1.46 -11.1% 10.3%
 Totals  1.0% 10.3%
11/15/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MPAA  $26.55 $27.98 $0.00 5.4% 10.1%
 ATHM  $22.61 $33.26 $0.00 47.1% 10.1%
 AMGN  $145.14 $168.61 $1.00 16.9% 10.1%
 RHI  $43.23 $49.54 $0.46 15.7% 10.1%
 CA  $31.11 $32.43 $0.26 5.1% 10.1%
 Totals  18.0% 10.1%
2/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AKRX  $19.10 $22.32 $0.00 16.9% 4.3%
 YY  $41.08 $51.01 $0.00 24.2% 4.3%
 KLAC  $85.11 $94.69 $0.54 11.9% 4.3%
 WNC  $17.65 $21.14 $0.00 19.8% 4.3%
 RGR  $52.75 $53.55 $0.44 2.4% 4.3%
 Totals  15.0% 4.3%

As I preach, I try to be a bit defensive in my picks... avoiding disasters.  Just one here in the 20 picks, GNC.  And you can see how a -60% sucks the wind out of a tranche.


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  1.0% 18.0% 15.0% 28.5% 15.2%
 Previous Tranche  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% -25.2% -2.9%
 Tranche -2  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 21.2%
 Tranche -3  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -4  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 34.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  86.4% 254.7% 111.0% 51.1% 125.8%
 Current Balance         46,591          88,663       52,761        37,769         225,784
 R3K Current Tranche  10.3% 10.1% 4.3% 18.8% 10.9%
 R3K Overall Gain  84.3% 87.7% 68.8% 57.9% 70.4%
 R3K Balance         41,779          46,921       42,197        39,472         170,367
 Annualized IRR  14.5% 33.9% 19.8% 11.3% 19.9%

Still holding strong to almost a 20% annualized IRR.  Current tranche up a snappy 15.2%.

MFI Formula

These are stocks picked by formula rather than my selecting. Formula is based on my backtesting - stocks have to have yield of 2.4% or greater and be in upper 2/3 in market cap.  I then randomly select 5 names.  I will be retiring a tranche in acouple weeks (4/1) and starting a new one.  I have been also planning to dedicate more $, but I am starting to re-think that.  Not so much that I do not believe in MFI Formula... rather the whole market seems extended.  Check out this amazing headline (The S&P 500 and Dow have now gone 108 days without a 1% decline).

Same tables.

 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
12/1/2015 -3.48%          99,443            102,926
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
2/1/2016 -0.72%          93,797              94,367
3/1/2016 4.07%          98,588              94,367
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
5/1/2016 -1.91%          99,774            101,200
6/1/2016 -0.42%        103,145            103,568
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
8/1/2016 2.56%        109,419            106,857
9/1/2016 -0.34%        106,704            107,048
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
11/1/2016 0.42%        105,421            105,003
12/1/2016 1.62%        110,705            109,088
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
2/1/2017 1.32%        114,809            113,486
3/1/2017 -5.09%        112,930            118,024
Current -2.80%        115,937            118,741

 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 CPLA              77.80                   82.25                       -   5.7%
 HPQ              17.39                   17.56                       -   1.0%
 ILG              18.24                   19.26                       -   5.6%
 PBI              13.29                   12.84                       -   -3.4%
 GILD              68.19                   69.06                       -   1.3%
 CA              32.40                   32.43                       -   0.1%
 SYNT              17.54                   17.64                       -   0.6%
 TGNA              26.23                   26.07                       -   -0.6%
 XPER              33.70                   35.80                       -   6.2%
 LDOS              52.81                   53.95                       -   2.2%
 TIME              19.10                   19.15                       -   0.3%
 CSCO              34.26                   34.23                       -   -0.1%
 GME              25.18                   24.64                       -   -2.1%
 HRB              23.73                   24.45                       -   3.0%
 CALM              38.80                   38.50 -0.8%
 VIAB              43.73                   43.40 -0.8%
 Average  1.1%

So you can see it was a pretty good week.  While the 1.1% average is a straight average, not a weighted average,  it is pretty close (I was up 1.05% YTD last week and now 2.33%).  TIME is very close to perhaps doing a deal with MDP (rumor mill is $21 to $22).  I only have two weeks left with them So a good news announcement next week would be a nice boost ( ).

 4/1/16 Stocks  Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
 CALM  $51.27 $38.50 $0.44 -24.1% 18.6%
 HPQ  $12.10 $17.56 $0.51 49.3% 18.6%
 TIME  $15.24 $19.15 $0.76 30.6% 18.6%
 ILG  $13.85 $19.26 $0.51 42.7% 18.6%
 XPER  $30.79 $35.80 $0.80 18.9% 18.6%
 Totals  23.5% 18.6%
7/1/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 ILG  $16.76 $19.26 $0.39 17.2% 14.1%
 VIAB  $44.00 $43.40 $0.60 0.0% 14.1%
 CPLA  $53.22 $82.25 $1.21 56.8% 14.1%
 HRB  $23.62 $24.45 $0.66 6.3% 14.1%
 PBI  $17.69 $12.84 $0.56 -24.2% 14.1%
 Totals  11.2% 14.1%
10/3/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CPLA  $58.15 $82.25 $0.82 42.9% 11.1%
 LDOS  $43.01 $53.95 $0.00 25.4% 11.1%
 GME  $27.70 $24.64 $0.75 -8.3% 11.1%
 PBI  $18.15 $12.84 $0.38 -27.2% 11.1%
 CSCO  $31.72 $34.23 $0.52 9.6% 11.1%
 Totals  8.5% 11.1%
12/30/2016  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GILD  $71.69 $69.06 $0.52 -2.9% 6.1%
 HPQ  $15.00 $17.56 $0.13 18.0% 6.1%
 TGNA  $21.33 $26.07 $0.14 22.9% 6.1%
 CA  $31.99 $32.43 $0.26 2.2% 6.1%
 SYNT  $19.79 $17.64 $0.00 -10.9% 6.1%
 Totals  5.8% 6.1%
 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  8.5% 5.8% 23.5% 11.2% 11.4%
 Previous Tranche  5.5% 9.3% -0.2% -12.5% 1.2%
 Tranche -2  0.5% 11.0%               -                  -   2.9%
 MFI Overall Gain  15.0% 28.4% 23.2% -2.6% 16.0%
 Current Balance      287,187        320,872     308,188      243,127      1,159,375
 R3K Current Tranche  11.1% 6.1% 18.6% 14.1% 12.5%
 R3K Overall Gain  25.4% 18.6% 17.3% 13.8% 18.8%
 R3K Balance      313,317        296,411     293,561      284,116      1,187,405
 Annualized IRR  5.8% 11.9% 11.2% -1.5% 6.8%

So the jury is still out on Formula approach.  Overall up 16.0% versus R3K at 18.8%.  Not a disaster, but not dancing on sunshine either.

Dividend Portfolio

For those of you who care about MFI, you may want to stop here.  I also have a dividend portolio which is my attempt to build an income stream for retirement.  While I buy these names with a long term buy and hold mentaility, I have (admittedly) been selling some names this 1st quarter (see S&P headline above if you want to know why).  This week I sold my GLDI.  Previously I sold PSX and SBRA.  I am in no rush to find replacement names... I am frankly a little fearful right now.  But my very long term plays (CSQ, AOD, O, JQC and OIBAX) will just continue to chug along (I am also worried about PEO).


 Dividend Stocks  Start  Current   Divvy   Overall Pct Gain   Weekly Pct Gain   1/1/17 Price   % Chg Since 1/1/17 
 CSQ      9.14       11.11      2.42 48.1% 0.9%         10.27 10.1%
 AOD      7.64         8.27      1.77 31.4% 1.3%           7.58 10.3%
 SBRA    22.46       25.74      0.41 16.4% 0.0%         24.42 5.4%
 PSXP    47.04       50.91      1.08 10.5% -3.5%         48.64 5.8%
 TGONF    10.24       12.32      2.02 40.1% -0.7%         12.14 2.9%
 JQC      7.85         8.87      0.79 23.0% 0.7%           8.85 1.9%
 PSX    80.00       78.90      3.51 3.0% 0.0%         86.41 -8.0%
 DSL    18.45       19.76      1.45 14.9% 0.6%         18.99 6.3%
 GLDI    10.63         9.40      0.86 -3.5% 2.1%           8.94 6.7%
 PEO    20.49       19.31      0.10 -5.3% 0.6%         20.17 -3.8%
 O    24.55       59.86    19.71 224.1% 4.3%         57.48 4.6%
 DHF      3.19         3.35      0.09 7.7% 1.8%           3.36 1.5%
 OIBAX      5.08         5.72      2.34 58.8% 0.7%           5.61 2.7%
 Totals  25.8% 4.0%

Note this % change since 1/1/17 does not reflect a cash component while my initial table at top of blog does.


Miscellaneous

This continues to be my best performing portfolio for the year (up over 11%).  It is much riskier than the rest, using options, warrants and now a couple speculative bio tech plays.  I will not go into the details and I am not comfortable with people possibly following me.  My biggest holding continues to be BAC warrants (from TARP) that now have under two years to run.  These have been great, cost basis is 4.49 and they are at 12.61. But they can be volatile.

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