Sunday, February 26, 2017

2/24/17 Subsets

2/24/17 Subsets

 Okay. I have set up my new tracking portfolio of 50 stocks for the upcoming year. As my 30 or 40 regular readers know, I do also have subsets of the 50 stock list that I track:


  1. Dividend Stocks
  2. New Stocks and
  3. Dog Stocks

Here are the stocks that made my list in each category.

Dividends


Stock  Initial Price 
SYNT              17.98
RGR              49.85
SPOK              18.90
PBI              14.07
MCFT              14.94
HPQ              17.65
GME              26.28
DIN              59.86
CSCO              34.32
CA              32.63
BKE              20.20
BPT              21.30
HRB              20.05


New

Stock Initial Price
TZOO                9.40
OMC              86.16
LEE                2.65
DIN              59.86
GIB              47.08
BIIB            285.13
AKRX              21.28

Dogs

Stock Initial Price
SCMP              11.75
PBI              14.07
NHTC              27.39
KORS              37.30
BKE              20.20
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Monthly Magic Formula Investing Tracking Portfolio 1/29/16

MFI Tracking Portfolio

Another month/year has flown by. And so it is time to look at another monthly tracking portfolio as we reach the end of January 2017.  As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006.  Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months.  It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.

Onward

 Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak"..  Then we had a 13 month winning streak. This month, MFI (wait for it) won by 2.4 percentage points, our third straight win. Amazingly, this is the biggest win since the June 28th 2013 portfolio.  It has been a dry spell. 18 of the 19 had recently lost, but concurrent with the Trump rally, MFI stocks saw a resurgence these past 3+ months. But the tising tide seems to be receding.  Only 6 of 11 open portfolios are leading.  In aggregate we are now slightly losing again, giving up our 4 point lead from a month ago.  It is disappointing and I have certainly felt some of that pain in my personal account.  Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:


Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  52 week low   Mkt Cap 
AGX              31.46           69.90 122.2%               30.62            475
MKSI              32.47           66.70 105.4%               32.72         1,751
BLBD                8.71           16.70 91.7%                 8.65            183
BBSI              34.57           62.30 80.2%               22.55            252
WNC              11.74           20.85 77.7%               10.74            777
IDCC              49.46           86.05 74.0%               49.53         1,777
HPQ              10.25           17.65 72.3%               10.60       18,482
OUTR              30.49           52.00 70.5%               24.81            524
CPLA              44.55           75.80 70.2%               45.62            541
STRA              44.68           75.95 70.0%               43.50            493
MCFT                9.63           14.94 55.1%               10.25            239
STRZA              23.85           35.50 48.8%               20.33         2,417
FFIV              97.12         144.41 48.7%               93.64         6,677
BBY              31.03           45.56 46.8%               28.76       10,546
AAPL              94.90         136.66 44.0%               89.47     537,316
TIME              13.00           18.30 40.7%               12.50         1,453
LEA            100.73         141.36 40.3%               97.35         7,579
TIVO                8.29           11.34 36.8%               15.06            811
IQNT              16.88           22.90 35.6%               14.56            584
MSGN              16.55           22.30 34.7%               14.73         1,238
CSCO              25.50           34.32 34.6%               25.81     133,423
DLX              56.39           75.51 33.9%               57.00         2,814
NSR              24.87           33.25 33.7%               21.10         1,327
TSRA              28.46           37.95 33.4%               28.57         1,473
PETS              16.04           21.33 33.0%               16.47            339
VC              71.63           94.16 31.5%               63.04         2,844
SRDX              19.46           25.05 28.7%               17.45            253
VIAB              35.12           43.89 25.0%               33.94       14,351
RHI              38.75           47.96 23.8%               34.34         5,191
RECN              13.76           17.00 23.6%               12.30            525
VEC              19.21           23.37 21.7%               12.50            203
FLR              46.05           55.09 19.6%               44.05         6,507
UTHR            123.80         146.71 18.5%               97.52         5,927
RPXC                9.84           10.99 11.7%                 8.60            555
KFY              27.81           30.77 10.7%               18.57         1,449
WILN                1.76             1.83 3.8%                 1.27            218
USNA              58.16           58.95 1.4%               54.25         1,499
ENTA              28.40           27.72 -2.4%               20.79            534
BPT              22.66           21.30 -6.0%               11.29            541
VDSI              14.46           13.55 -6.3%               12.80            572
GME              28.98           26.28 -9.3%               20.10         3,204
SCMP              13.21           11.75 -11.1%                 9.59            599
NHTC              31.90           27.39 -14.1%               20.59            406
PBI              17.21           14.07 -18.2%               12.41         3,554
GILD              86.11           69.94 -18.8%               65.38     125,278
CALM              51.98           37.95 -27.0%               35.65         2,543
BKE              29.50           20.20 -31.5%               19.45         1,540
KORS              56.58           37.30 -34.1%               34.92       10,341
NLNK              21.63           14.18 -34.4%                 9.23            705
FIT              12.15             6.15 -49.4%                 5.62         2,517


Definitely a few trends here. The For Profit Education space finally ended its death spiral. CPLA and STRA were decent. Auto parts stocks did well: WNC, LEA and VC. Quite a few buyouts, IQNT,  OUTR, NSR and TIVO.  I have mentioned that a "Dogs of MFI" approach has shown some promise. KORS  BKE and PBI are still on the list.  It would take some courage to buy any of those - but I guess that is why they are called dogs. 

Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:


Date MFI R3K Lead
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9% 1
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6% 1
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6% 1
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1% 0
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6% 1
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3% 1
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0% 1
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3% 1
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3% 0
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6% 0
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0% 0
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8% 0
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4% 0
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6% 0
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0% 0
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5% 0
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0% 0
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3% 0
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6% 0
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5% 0
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7% 0
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2% 0
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3% 0
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3% 0
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0% 1
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9% 0
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5% 0
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8% 0
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0% 1
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6% 1
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3% 1
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9% 1
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9% 1
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0% 1
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9% 1
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7% 1
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3% 1
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4% 1
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6% 1
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1% 1
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8% 1
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8% 1
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0% 0
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9% 1
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8% 0
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4% 1
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3% 1
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6% 1
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1% 1
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6% 0
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6% 0
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4% 0
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4% 0
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4% 0
6/29/2010 16.7% 25.7% 0
7/29/2010 5.4% 20.1% 0
9/2/2010 7.3% 10.1% 0
9/24/2010 -4.3% 0.3% 0
10/29/2010 -2.9% 10.4% 0
11/26/2010 -8.5% 1.4% 0
1/3/2011 -11.4% 0.1% 0
1/28/2011 -7.6% 4.9% 0
2/25/2011 -5.5% 5.0% 0
3/24/2011 -4.4% 7.4% 0
4/21/2011 -16.0% 3.2% 0
5/27/2011 -12.0% -0.4% 0
6/24/2011 -9.5% 5.0% 0
7/29/2011 -4.3% 8.1% 0
8/26/2011 12.0% 21.6% 0
9/30/2011 23.5% 29.6% 0
10/28/2011 0.4% 11.5% 0
11/25/2011 13.9% 24.0% 0
12/29/2011 9.9% 15.9% 0
1/27/2012 7.4% 16.6% 0
2/24/2012 7.8% 13.3% 0
3/23/2012 9.1% 15.2% 0
4/27/2012 10.5% 15.3% 0
5/25/2012 26.5% 27.5% 0
6/22/2012 26.1% 24.6% 1
7/27/2012 30.4% 25.7% 1
8/24/2012 26.0% 19.8% 1
9/28/2012 39.3% 22.1% 1
10/26/2012 48.3% 28.9% 1
11/23/2012 45.7% 32.1% 1
12/31/2012 52.3% 33.0% 1
1/25/2013 39.5% 22.0% 1
2/22/2013 46.5% 26.4% 1
3/28/2013 40.1% 21.2% 1
4/26/2013 35.0% 20.5% 1
5/24/2013 20.4% 19.2% 1
6/28/2013 26.9% 24.1% 1
7/29/2013 17.8% 19.0% 0
8/30/2013 17.5% 24.6% 0
9/27/2013 12.9% 17.7% 0
10/25/2013 11.8% 15.4% 0
11/29/2013 12.3% 15.6% 0
12/31/2013 12.7% 11.9% 1
1/31/2014 14.2% 13.0% 1
2/28/2014 15.4% 13.9% 1
3/28/2014 6.1% 12.3% 0
4/25/2014 8.6% 15.8% 0
5/30/2014 5.9% 11.7% 0
6/27/2014 2.5% 9.2% 0
7/25/2014 3.3% 8.7% 0
8/29/2014 -2.2% 1.0% 0
9/26/2014 -0.6% -0.9% 1
10/31/2014 4.3% 4.4% 0
11/28/2014 -2.9% 2.9% 0
12/31/2014 -9.3% 0.3% 0
1/30/2015 -12.4% -2.8% 0
2/27/2015 -19.0% -7.3% 0
3/27/2015 -17.1% -1.9% 0
4/24/2015 -15.4% -0.8% 0
5/29/2015 -14.1% 0.1% 0
6/26/2015 -8.7% 0.4% 0
7/30/2015 3.96% 4.02% 0
8/28/2015 5.6% 10.2% 0
9/25/2015 6.5% 13.8% 0
10/30/2015 2.0% 4.0% 0
11/27/2015 8.9% 8.4% 1
12/31/2015 13.7% 12.6% 1
1/29/2016 23.1% 22.4% 1
2/26/2016 28.5% 25.4% 1
3/24/2016 26.1% 19.7% 1
4/22/2016 13.0% 15.8% 0
5/27/2016 16.7% 15.3% 1
6/30/2016 16.6% 15.0% 1
7/29/2016 11.1% 10.6% 1
8/26/2016 11.6% 10.6% 1
9/30/2016 11.3% 10.2% 1
10/28/2016 12.3% 12.7% 0
11/25/2016 2.7% 7.1% 0
12/30/2016 1.9% 5.7% 0
1/27/2017 1.4% 3.2% 0

Subsets

I also have tracked 3 subsets of the larger portfolios:  (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%),  (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months and Dogs.   It is like the dogs of the Dow in that you take the worst five performing stocks from the prior year that renew or all those that dropped more that 29%. The dividend portfolio was solid, up about 24.6%.   The Dogs portfolio was bad, up just 6.5%.  The New approach very good, up 48.6%.


Stock End Price Percent Change
FFIV         144.41 49%
LEA         141.36 40%
MKSI           66.70 105%
RECN           17.00 24%
RHI           47.96 24%
SRDX           25.05 29%
TIME           18.30 41%
WNC           20.85 78%


 Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%.  So I track what you would have today if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly. I think it is obvious why my formula approach is a function of dividend subset.


Category Value
Total      200,072
Total Russell 3K      229,563
New      168,466
Dogs      244,576
Dividend      438,205

Ok, that is a wrap.  Hope you find it useful. Off to set up a new portfolio.
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