Ed's Talking Stock Update

As my readers know, I occasionally read the Ed's Talking Stock Blog.  He is very thorough in his analysis of the upcoming events, however he often seems to think he is the first person to have thought about certain things; while in reality he is often quite late to the dance.

The board has a Daytrader's Corner, which would be comical if Ed wasn't losing so much money.  He will make comments about why the market will be going up or down, but they are based on fantasy or his perception rather than any true technical analysis,  Some of the other posters on the board actually seem pretty savvy.  They keep disagreeing with him, but not in an antagonistic way... but he keeps going his merry way losing money instead of deciding to mimic the successful guys a bit more.

Since I started following him (he posts his gains/losses daily), I have him down almost 40% since December 2010 and he is down almost 14% in 2012.  Down 14% in a broader market that is up 8 to 15% is pretty poor.  Here is how he has performed against a nifty 50 portfolio I set up at the start of 2011 and 2012:

 

stock	Initial	Shares	Current	Daily Change	Y-day	Current Value	Total Change
AFAM	16.58	108.56	22.90	0.6%	2,472	2,486	38.1%
AMED	10.91	164.99	12.50	-1.0%	2,084	2,062	14.6%
APOL	53.87	33.41	36.62	0.8%	1,214	1,224	-32.0%
AMAT	10.71	168.07	11.47	1.7%	1,896	1,928	7.8%
ASTX	1.89	952.38	2.07	-0.5%	1,981	1,971	9.5%
CJES	20.93	86.00	18.75	1.6%	1,587	1,613	-10.4%
CPLA	36.05	49.93	34.75	-0.2%	1,739	1,735	-3.6%
CECO	7.97	225.85	6.58	-1.4%	1,506	1,486	-17.4%
CRAY	6.47	278.21	12.75	2.3%	3,469	3,547	97.1%
CPIX	5.38	334.57	6.52	0.6%	2,168	2,181	21.2%
DELL	14.63	123.03	12.68	2.4%	1,524	1,560	-13.3%
DLX	22.76	79.09	26.00	1.7%	2,022	2,056	15.3%
DLB	30.51	59.00	42.69	2.6%	2,455	2,519	39.9%
XLS	9.05	198.90	10.06	1.7%	1,967	2,001	12.3%
LNC	19.52	92.21	21.73	1.5%	1,975	2,004	11.7%
FRX	30.26	59.48	36.13	1.0%	2,129	2,149	19.4%
GTAT	7.24	248.62	5.49	2.4%	1,333	1,365	-24.2%
GNW	6.55	274.81	5.89	3.2%	1,569	1,619	-10.1%
GTIV	6.75	266.67	7.18	-0.8%	1,931	1,915	6.4%
FCX	36.79	48.93	35.21	3.9%	1,658	1,723	-4.1%
ESI	56.89	31.64	63.37	2.2%	1,961	2,005	11.4%
KLAC	48.25	37.31	48.96	0.0%	1,826	1,826	2.2%
KLIC	9.25	194.59	9.07	1.9%	1,732	1,765	-1.9%
LRCX	37.02	48.62	37.82	0.5%	1,830	1,839	2.2%
LPS	15.07	119.44	26.02	2.3%	3,039	3,108	73.3%
MEDW	12.82	140.41	14.60	-0.3%	2,055	2,050	13.9%
MANT	31.24	57.62	24.00	1.2%	1,367	1,383	-22.5%
MDF	7.47	240.96	9.99	0.7%	2,390	2,407	33.7%
MSFT	25.96	69.34	30.76	0.7%	2,119	2,133	19.3%
MNTA	17.39	103.51	14.28	2.4%	1,444	1,478	-17.9%
NSU	5.53	325.50	3.33	-0.3%	1,087	1,084	-39.3%
NOC	58.48	30.78	63.94	0.6%	1,956	1,968	10.2%
NVMI	7.37	244.23	8.43	-0.7%	2,074	2,059	14.4%
PDLI	6.20	290.32	6.78	0.9%	1,951	1,968	11.8%
PETS	10.38	173.41	12.21	-1.1%	2,142	2,117	18.8%
PWER	3.91	460.36	4.76	3.7%	2,113	2,191	21.7%
RTN	48.38	37.21	56.49	0.9%	2,083	2,102	17.8%
SAI	12.29	146.46	12.16	0.5%	1,772	1,781	-1.1%
SNDK	49.21	36.58	37.12	0.6%	1,350	1,358	-24.6%
SAVE	15.60	115.38	20.49	0.9%	2,343	2,364	31.3%
TNAV	7.81	230.47	6.18	1.0%	1,411	1,424	-20.9%
TER	13.63	132.06	14.35	2.4%	1,850	1,895	5.3%
TSRA	16.75	107.46	15.41	2.9%	1,609	1,656	-8.0%
USB	27.05	66.54	32.58	0.4%	2,159	2,168	21.1%
USNA	30.37	59.27	41.29	0.5%	2,436	2,447	36.0%
UIS	19.71	91.32	19.15	0.8%	1,735	1,749	-2.8%
EGY	6.04	298.01	9.38	5.2%	2,658	2,795	55.3%
VECO	20.80	86.54	36.41	2.4%	3,077	3,151	75.0%
VPHM	27.39	65.72	23.79	0.4%	1,557	1,563	-13.1%
VG	2.45	734.69	1.99	-0.5%	1,469	1,462	-18.8%
Totals				1.2%	97,274	98,441	-1.3%
Ed	starting 12/3/10						-38.7%
MFI Index							3.4%
Russell 3000							8.4%
Ed 2012							-12.6%
Spiffy 50 2012							9.6%