November 25th 2011 Tracking Portfolio

I like to list stocks that qualify as "new" or "dividend" stocks for those of you that are interested.

For my most recent tracking portfolio, the following stocks qualify as dividend stocks:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Yield
KLAC	42.08	43.30	2.9%
AMAT	10.16	10.25	3.1%
MSFT	24.30	24.84	3.3%
CMTL	29.28	29.50	3.5%
RTN	43.12	43.69	3.9%
HRB	14.41	15.18	4.2%
STRA	88.03	91.01	4.5%
CHKE	12.05	12.27	5.0%
DLX	19.79	21.37	5.1%
PETS	8.96	9.17	5.6%
PDLI	6.03	6.24	7.5%
USMO	13.07	13.47	7.7%
GNI	104.83	106.60	12.4%
NOC	53.42	55.13	15.6%

Then the following stocks are "new":

Stock	Initial Price	End Price
OSIR	4.13	4.30
NSU	5.10	5.52
NBIX	6.00	6.18
CJES	19.25	19.70

I have been active in my dividend portfolio of late. I have added three stocks, FCX, HPQ and STO. Then today I added shares to KMF and MNDO. KMF is interesting as it is trading at an 11% discount to it's NAV. That is much lower than it's average of -3.85%:

As of 11/28/2011

Share Price NAV Premium/ Discount Current $21.99 $24.91 -11.72% 52 Wk Avg $24.11 $25.08 -3.85% 52 Wk High $25.57 $27.20 5.67% 52 Wk Low $19.60 $22.36 -13.82% Distribution Rate 7.46% Distribution Amount $0.4100 Distribution Frequency Quarterly

November 26 2010 Tracking Portfolio

As my readers know, I create a tracking portfolio direct from the official screen of the top 50 stocks over $100m once a month. I then "hold" this portfolio for a year and track it's results versus a benchmark Russell 3000. I have been doing this since January 2006.

11th Straight Losing Portfolio

The November 2010 portfolio closed a loser, down 8.5% while the Russell 3000 was up 1.4%. That made it the 11th straight MFI portfolio to lose to the benchmark. To make matters worse, of the 11 open portfolios, only one is "winning". It has been tough sledding of late.

Here are the 50 stocks in descending order:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change	52 week low	Mkt Cap
CNXT	1.38	2.40	74%	N/A	867
CBST	23.34	35.89	54%	20.81	272
AGX	8.54	12.29	44%	8.11	112
VPHM	16.40	23.00	40%	14.62	1,289
LO	79.19	109.27	38%	72.40	2,572
CNU	4.76	6.38	34%	N/A	140
APOL	34.46	45.82	33%	33.75	5,555
IDCC	33.89	42.53	25%	32.75	2,003
TNAV	6.95	8.58	23%	6.19	147
MHP	33.48	41.20	23%	33.80	13,036
HRB	12.23	14.94	22%	11.43	3,591
GLPW	18.55	22.07	19%	18.59	289
MRX	26.74	31.19	17%	24.97	1,750
PDLI	5.35	6.19	16%	4.66	619
DELL	13.65	14.98	10%	12.99	474
GTAT	7.09	7.77	10%	6.40	697
GME	20.50	22.36	9%	18.34	186
PPD	61.86	66.50	8%	N/A	598
SNDK	44.95	47.74	6%	32.24	8,868
CMTL	28.89	29.66	3%	23.51	204
MSFT	24.60	24.87	1%	23.65	225,009
SNTS	2.82	2.85	1%	2.40	186
IPXL	19.15	19.20	0%	14.46	1,355
DLX	21.27	21.15	-1%	17.50	1,711
UIS	22.65	22.39	-1%	13.77	376
RTN	44.85	43.94	-2%	38.35	16,613
TER	12.58	12.11	-4%	10.37	206
EME	26.32	24.30	-8%	18.25	714
FRX	31.85	29.15	-8%	28.56	300
UNTD	5.80	5.11	-12%	4.80	987
USMO	15.59	13.53	-13%	12.29	975
VALU	13.53	10.90	-19%	9.95	518
TSRA	20.65	16.37	-21%	11.13	1,984
CSGS	19.10	14.22	-26%	12.13	317
PRSC	16.61	11.33	-32%	8.35	210
ELNK	9.05	6.11	-32%	5.97	1,216
OSK	29.23	19.29	-34%	14.07	2,679
ASTX	2.78	1.66	-40%	1.60	169
MPAA	12.64	7.36	-42%	6.88	478
ARO	26.90	15.02	-44%	9.16	2,324
VECO	44.09	23.51	-47%	21.99	1,587
LINC	14.10	7.06	-50%	6.88	488
LHCG	26.39	12.80	-51%	12.34	268
PWER	9.28	4.17	-55%	4.05	353
ASYS	19.94	8.39	-58%	7.12	744
AFAM	35.53	13.69	-61%	12.50	2,324
CECO	18.72	6.97	-63%	6.85	1,414
AMED	29.00	10.74	-63%	9.12	316
NEP	6.53	2.35	-64%	1.85	165
SCEI	7.05	1.21	-83%	0.65	119

All Portfolios

Here is a listing of all portfolios (open and closed) back to January 2006:

Average of Percent Change
Date	Total	IWV
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%
5/12/2006	20.4%	18.6%
5/31/2006	29.2%	23.3%
6/30/2006	22.4%	20.0%
7/31/2006	19.7%	17.3%
8/31/2006	13.0%	13.3%
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%
2/27/2007	-3.7%	-1.0%
3/26/2007	-9.8%	-5.5%
4/27/2007	-10.9%	-5.0%
5/29/2007	-11.5%	-6.3%
7/3/2007	-30.0%	-15.6%
7/30/2007	-19.9%	-11.5%
8/30/2007	-12.5%	-8.7%
9/27/2007	-19.0%	-18.2%
11/2/2007	-40.4%	-34.3%
11/28/2007	-40.1%	-38.3%
12/28/2007	-36.3%	-40.0%
1/25/2008	-36.4%	-35.9%
2/26/2008	-51.7%	-41.5%
3/24/2008	-40.9%	-36.8%
4/25/2008	-25.6%	-31.0%
5/28/2008	-22.2%	-33.6%
7/2/2008	-11.7%	-25.3%
7/29/2008	-10.5%	-20.9%
8/29/2008	-13.8%	-17.9%
9/26/2008	-4.3%	-10.0%
10/31/2008	18.7%	13.9%
11/26/2008	50.9%	27.7%
12/26/2008	48.9%	32.3%
1/23/2009	59.3%	36.4%
2/27/2009	92.8%	55.6%
3/27/2009	85.8%	48.1%
4/24/2009	69.7%	45.8%
5/29/2009	31.8%	22.8%
6/29/2009	21.3%	24.0%
7/29/2009	19.5%	15.9%
8/28/2009	7.4%	8.8%
9/25/2009	12.6%	12.4%
10/30/2009	22.7%	18.3%
11/27/2009	24.3%	13.6%
12/31/2009	23.7%	18.1%
1/22/2010	19.0%	20.6%
2/26/2010	18.6%	23.6%
3/25/2010	10.0%	15.4%
4/23/2010	7.1%	11.4%
5/28/2010	19.3%	25.4%
6/29/2010	16.7%	25.7%
7/29/2010	5.4%	20.1%
9/2/2010	7.3%	10.1%
9/24/2010	-4.3%	0.3%
10/29/2010	-2.9%	10.4%
11/26/2010	-8.5%	1.4%
1/3/2011	-15.4%	-5.5%
1/28/2011	-16.7%	-5.7%
2/25/2011	-16.9%	-9.2%
3/24/2011	-16.0%	-8.7%
4/21/2011	-19.4%	-10.9%
5/27/2011	-16.1%	-10.7%
6/24/2011	-14.1%	-6.4%
7/29/2011	-13.3%	-7.7%
8/26/2011	-2.0%	1.8%
9/30/2011	6.8%	6.0%
10/28/2011	-9.1%	-7.1%

Start With $100,000

I compare where you would be if you started with $100,000 spread over first 12 months. I find this is a more useful measure as average percent change is different with greater volatility (i.e. +10% and down 10% will put you in a different ending place than +20% and down 20%).

Category	Value
Total	101,719
Total New	98,461
Total Dividend	209,358
Total Russell 3K	104,899

This shows you'd have been better off by $3,000 in the Russell 3000 than MFI. I also show two alternatives to the standard portfolios, a "new" option and a "dividend" option. A stock makes the new option if it hasn't been in the prior 12 portfolios. A stock makes the dividend option if it has at least a 2.6% yield. Clearly the dividend approach has been the winner.

The dividend stocks did well again, up 1.9%. Here are the dividend stocks:

Stock	Percent Change	Yield
LO	38%	5.4%
MHP	23%	2.8%
HRB	22%	4.9%
PDLI	16%	18.7%
DLX	-1%	4.7%
RTN	-2%	3.2%
UNTD	-12%	6.9%
USMO	-13%	12.8%
VALU	-19%	3.0%
ELNK	-32%	6.9%

It is getting late, I will post some comments on the new portfolio later this week.