Spetember 2 2010 Tracking Portfolio

Another Monthly Portfolio Finishes Behind

Tropical Storm Irene is probably about 35 miles south of us right now. The power just went out. Thankfully, the house we just bought has a generator built into the house than runs on natural gas and it kicked in one minute after the lights went out. That is a real luxury.

I closed the September 2nd 2010 tracking portfolio today. It is a week early, but I had started it a week late last year and I had two September portfolios, so I am shifting by a week to get back on track. As a reminder, I create a tracking portfolio of 50 stocks > $100m every month and hypothetically hold them for a year. I have been doing this since January 2006.

The portfolio lost to the Russell 3000 going up 7.3% vs the benchmark gain of 10.1%. That makes it the eighth straight portfolio to close behind the benchmark. To make matters worse, all 11 open portfolios are also trailing. One can seriously question whether the MFI approach is working. Here is the listing of stocks followed by how all portfolios have fared:

Stock	Initial Price	End Price	Percent Change
IDCC	25.49	69.06	171%
CNU	3.34	6.22	86%
TNAV	5.47	9.25	69%
CNXT	1.5	2.4	60%
CBST	22.45	32.28	44%
LO	76.64	110.11	44%
VPHM	13.09	18.66	43%
GXDX	17.95	25	39%
GMAN	10.65	14.82	39%
SNTS	2.25	3.11	38%
SNTA	2.89	3.97	37%
GTAT	8.5	11.39	34%
JCOM	22.19	29.35	32%
MD	48.22	62.81	30%
MRX	29.21	37.45	28%
PDLI	4.52	5.75	27%
AGX	8.09	10	24%
DLX	16.92	20.69	22%
IMMU	3	3.66	22%
ZLCS	1.31	1.52	16%
FRX	29.19	33.31	14%
USMO	13.17	15.02	14%
PPD	58.93	66.5	13%
IPXL	16.92	18.82	11%
VALU	10.88	11.94	10%
SUPG	2.03	2.1	3%
UNTD	5.06	5.1	1%
APOL	44.67	44.86	0%
TNDM	11.5	11.21	-3%
SNDK	36.01	34.8	-3%
RTN	44.16	41.59	-6%
LHCG	20.89	19.21	-8%
EME	24.24	22.17	-9%
CECO	18.25	16.48	-10%
TSRA	16.08	13.77	-14%
ELNK	8.35	7.09	-15%
CHKE	17.02	14.35	-16%
KIRK	12.29	9.39	-24%
AFAM	25.88	19.34	-25%
RST	17.24	12.56	-27%
OSK	25.57	18.28	-29%
PRSC	14.66	10.46	-29%
CSGS	19.04	12.82	-33%
UIS	24.92	16.75	-33%
AMED	24.43	16.08	-34%
DRWI	6.32	3.85	-39%
FSYS	34.46	19.84	-42%
ARO	21.81	11.07	-49%
GTIV	21.55	7.29	-66%
JGBO.PK	9.61	0.5	-95%

Some obvious stinkers in there, a bunch of home health providers that struggled along with the infamous JBGO.

Average of Percent Change
Date	Total	IWV
1/6/2006	16.0%	10.9%
2/17/2006	21.2%	14.6%
3/29/2006	13.0%	9.6%
4/7/2006	10.3%	12.1%
5/12/2006	20.4%	18.6%
5/31/2006	29.2%	23.3%
6/30/2006	22.4%	20.0%
7/31/2006	19.7%	17.3%
8/31/2006	13.0%	13.3%
9/28/2006	12.7%	14.6%
10/27/2006	10.3%	12.0%
11/29/2006	-0.3%	4.8%
12/28/2006	-6.9%	3.4%
1/26/2007	-10.2%	-6.6%
2/27/2007	-3.7%	-1.0%
3/26/2007	-9.8%	-5.5%
4/27/2007	-10.9%	-5.0%
5/29/2007	-11.5%	-6.3%
7/3/2007	-30.0%	-15.6%
7/30/2007	-19.9%	-11.5%
8/30/2007	-12.5%	-8.7%
9/27/2007	-19.0%	-18.2%
11/2/2007	-40.4%	-34.3%
11/28/2007	-40.1%	-38.3%
12/28/2007	-36.3%	-40.0%
1/25/2008	-36.4%	-35.9%
2/26/2008	-51.7%	-41.5%
3/24/2008	-40.9%	-36.8%
4/25/2008	-25.6%	-31.0%
5/28/2008	-22.2%	-33.6%
7/2/2008	-11.7%	-25.3%
7/29/2008	-10.5%	-20.9%
8/29/2008	-13.8%	-17.9%
9/26/2008	-4.3%	-10.0%
10/31/2008	18.7%	13.9%
11/26/2008	50.9%	27.7%
12/26/2008	48.9%	32.3%
1/23/2009	59.3%	36.4%
2/27/2009	92.8%	55.6%
3/27/2009	85.8%	48.1%
4/24/2009	69.7%	45.8%
5/29/2009	31.8%	22.8%
6/29/2009	21.3%	24.0%
7/29/2009	19.5%	15.9%
8/28/2009	7.4%	8.8%
9/25/2009	12.6%	12.4%
10/30/2009	22.7%	18.3%
11/27/2009	24.3%	13.6%
12/31/2009	23.7%	18.1%
1/22/2010	19.0%	20.6%
2/26/2010	18.6%	23.6%
3/25/2010	10.0%	15.4%
4/23/2010	7.1%	11.4%
5/28/2010	19.3%	25.4%
6/29/2010	16.7%	25.7%
7/29/2010	5.4%	20.1%
9/2/2010	7.3%	10.1%
9/24/2010	3.4%	4.4%
10/29/2010	-8.2%	0.7%
11/26/2010	-4.0%	-0.4%
1/3/2011	-11.9%	-7.2%
1/28/2011	-14.0%	-7.4%
2/25/2011	-14.0%	-10.9%
3/24/2011	-14.3%	-10.3%
4/21/2011	-16.9%	-12.5%
5/27/2011	-14.7%	-12.3%
6/24/2011	-12.0%	-8.1%
7/29/2011	-12.2%	-9.4%
8/26/2011	0.0%	0.0%
Grand Total	4.1%	3.0%

Special Portfolios

As people may know, I also track two special sub-portfolios. One is called "new" and only has stocks that have not been in a tracking portfolio in the prior 12 months. The second is called "dividend" and only picks stocks with at leats a dividend of 2.6% (per Yahoo Finance). The dividend portfolio continues to way out perform (it was up 9% and is beating the Russell in 10 of the open 11 portfolios).

In addition, I do like to track performance solely using percentages. This is because a portfolio that goes up50% one year and down 50% the next leaves you at a worse absolute $ amount than one that goes up 5% and then down 5%. The chart below shows how much money you'd have if you spread $100,000 evenly over the first 12 months:

Category	Value
Total	105,647
Total New	100,786
Total Dividend	205,731
Total Russell 3K	103,910

As you can see, MFI is just barely beating the Russell 3000 over 5+ years.

Finally, I have created a new August 26 2011 portfolio. Here are the stocks in the "new" portfolio and more importantly the "dividend" portfolio:

New

Stock	Initial Price
MIPS	5.13
KFY	15.36
KLAC	35.47
DLB	33.50
AMAT	11.06

Dividend

Stock	Initial Price
UNTD	5.10
USMO	15.02
STRA	92.67
PETS	10.00
PDLI	5.75
NOC	52.16
MDP	24.01
KLAC	35.47
DLX	20.69
CMTL	27.20
CHKE	14.35
HRB	13.96

Top 200 August 26th 2011

Top 200 List as Irene Hits Connecticut

It is a very wet Sunday morning here in Connecticut. The irony has not been lost on me that I moved from hurricane-prone Bermuda this summer and will likely be getting a dose of tropical storm Irene throughout the day.

I have once again re-created my top 200 list. I did find it interesting this week that Steve Alexander of MagicDiligence (3 Replacement Stocks for Magic Formula Investing ) published a list of stocks that should be in the top of the list, but aren't. He does state that no one knows the exact formula that Joel Greenblatt uses, but I'd respectfully suggest that I am pretty darned close here. As an example, he says he can't figure out how KFY gets on the list, well they are number 58 for me.

Here is my list:

Ticker	Rank	Date	Stock Price	Market Cap	Earnings Yield	ROIC	Yahoo Yield
STV	1	8/27	4.71	278	45%	1898%	0.0%
LMLP	2	8/27	2.61	76	34%	12172%	0.0%
SUPG	3	8/27	2.10	128	242%	480%	0.0%
MAIL	4	8/27	5.83	58	37%	850%	22.0%
DEPO	5	8/27	5.72	309	27%	5729%	0.0%
ACAD	6	8/27	1.26	63	26%	2450%	0.0%
TNAV	7	8/27	9.25	422	28%	756%	0.0%
PDLI	8	8/27	5.75	1,070	23%	637869%	14.0%
AGX	9	8/27	10.00	137	23%	1051%	0.0%
TSRA	10	8/27	13.77	708	51%	256%	0.0%
XNY	11	8/27	2.20	128	1843%	213%	0.0%
VECO	12	8/27	35.46	1,525	35%	262%	0.0%
BPI	13	8/27	21.51	1,246	25%	365%	0.0%
NVMI	14	8/27	6.56	178	31%	275%	0.0%
LACO	15	8/27	2.46	65	425%	187%	0.0%
ESI	16	8/27	70.91	1,966	28%	295%	0.0%
CRAY	17	8/27	5.40	189	49%	194%	0.0%
MNTA	18	8/27	16.35	834	32%	212%	0.0%
CPLA	19	8/27	31.65	496	29%	210%	0.0%
APOL	20	8/27	44.86	6,296	24%	257%	0.0%
GAME	21	8/27	5.51	1,568	19%	547%	0.0%
SNDK	22	8/27	34.80	8,486	21%	320%	0.0%
PRX	23	8/27	28.73	1,055	23%	242%	0.0%
AFAM	24	8/27	19.34	181	34%	140%	0.0%
UIS	25	8/27	16.75	722	29%	140%	0.0%
RIMG	26	8/27	14.08	135	74%	113%	1.5%
DELL	27	8/27	14.69	27,485	20%	232%	0.0%
FRX	28	8/27	33.31	9,539	20%	202%	0.0%
VPHM	29	8/27	18.66	1,669	18%	287%	0.0%
KLIC	30	8/27	8.65	641	51%	109%	0.0%
SAVE	31	8/27	12.14	872	16%	546%	0.0%
ASYS	32	8/27	10.82	107	129%	100%	0.0%
HRB	33	8/27	13.96	4,273	17%	262%	4.4%
USMO	34	8/27	15.02	339	19%	196%	13.3%
LPS	35	8/27	16.19	1,389	19%	189%	2.6%
LTXC	36	8/27	6.17	311	31%	110%	0.0%
UEPS	37	8/27	6.59	300	25%	123%	0.0%
CREG	38	8/27	1.33	73	25%	120%	0.0%
RIMM	39	8/27	29.18	15,306	35%	104%	0.0%
EGY	40	8/27	6.01	349	48%	97%	0.0%
CECO	41	8/27	16.48	1,245	36%	102%	0.0%
PWER	42	8/27	7.71	1,082	32%	102%	0.0%
AMAT	43	8/27	11.06	14,710	25%	113%	2.0%
KLAC	44	8/27	35.47	6,061	25%	114%	3.2%
AMED	45	8/27	16.08	466	26%	107%	0.0%
CNGL	46	8/27	1.65	66	148%	81%	0.0%
LIWA	47	8/27	6.49	197	55%	84%	0.0%
STRA	48	8/27	92.67	1,088	18%	171%	4.4%
MSFT	49	8/27	25.25	215,155	15%	333%	2.6%
AVEO	50	8/27	16.29	600	15%	334%	0.0%
CBPO	51	8/27	8.01	206	33%	89%	0.0%
USNA	52	8/27	25.80	406	20%	126%	0.0%
SPRD	53	8/27	17.42	945	15%	343%	0.3%
CHKE	54	8/27	14.35	122	15%	356%	8.1%
CYOU	55	8/27	36.54	1,948	14%	387%	0.0%
TER	56	8/27	11.84	2,729	20%	121%	0.0%
LRCX	57	8/27	37.30	4,666	25%	102%	0.0%
KFY	58	8/27	15.36	724	16%	194%	0.0%
AZN	59	8/27	45.96	63,747	19%	125%	5.9%
NOK	60	8/27	5.92	21,981	19%	119%	9.3%
MANT	61	8/27	36.10	1,328	17%	149%	0.0%
PRSC	62	8/27	10.46	139	18%	135%	0.0%
CMTL	63	8/27	27.20	881	23%	100%	3.8%
DLB	64	8/27	33.50	3,764	15%	255%	0.0%
OSK	65	8/27	18.28	1,676	28%	83%	0.0%
GNI	66	8/27	105.64	158	14%	498%	12.0%
PETS	67	8/27	10.00	218	18%	122%	5.0%
DLX	68	8/27	20.69	1,069	15%	231%	5.0%
GTIV	69	8/27	7.29	225	18%	128%	0.0%
UNTD	70	8/27	5.10	452	16%	171%	8.0%
ENTR	71	8/27	4.04	361	26%	81%	0.0%
CNTF	72	8/27	2.34	124	818%	65%	0.0%
NOC	73	8/27	52.16	14,980	19%	107%	16.2%
MDP	74	8/27	24.01	1,096	17%	121%	4.1%
GEDU	75	8/27	5.06	132	36%	72%	0.0%
CTP	76	8/27	5.45	41	28%	77%	0.0%
DV	77	8/27	42.59	2,977	19%	105%	0.6%
MEDW	78	8/27	10.33	85	13%	688%	0.0%
NSR	79	8/27	24.30	1,823	15%	185%	0.0%
RTN	80	8/27	41.59	14,852	18%	112%	3.9%
WSTG	81	8/27	11.39	53	19%	101%	6.8%
MBND	82	8/27	3.05	59	14%	201%	0.0%
HPQ	83	8/27	24.82	51,626	20%	91%	1.4%
CSCO	84	8/27	15.32	84,199	14%	220%	0.8%
MDCO	85	8/27	14.22	772	13%	307%	0.0%
MED	86	8/27	15.52	224	18%	102%	0.0%
AIXG	87	8/27	21.85	2,223	22%	82%	3.9%
ADI	88	8/27	32.38	9,997	15%	144%	3.0%
CUB	89	8/27	40.70	1,088	14%	226%	0.7%
GME	90	8/27	22.78	3,239	20%	86%	0.0%
MKSI	91	8/27	23.25	1,230	30%	67%	0.7%
ARO	92	8/27	11.07	900	32%	65%	0.0%
CPIX	93	8/27	5.86	121	17%	109%	0.0%
NEP	94	8/27	1.90	60	2098%	59%	0.0%
IPXL	95	8/27	18.82	1,273	18%	92%	0.0%
MRVL	96	8/27	12.89	8,032	15%	154%	0.0%
CBST	97	8/27	32.28	1,954	14%	202%	0.0%
GURE	98	8/27	2.03	72	817%	58%	0.0%
CEL	99	8/27	21.56	2,145	18%	90%	17.1%
DGIT	100	8/27	20.41	566	17%	99%	0.0%
LHCG	101	8/27	19.21	352	20%	79%	0.0%
LINC	102	8/27	9.55	215	43%	60%	8.0%
MIPS	103	8/27	5.13	278	12%	1015%	0.0%
NVLS	104	8/27	27.43	2,251	21%	76%	0.0%
CNH	105	8/27	28.45	6,856	107%	57%	0.0%
CHOP	106	8/27	3.56	211	76%	57%	0.0%
EME	107	8/27	22.17	1,521	17%	92%	0.0%
EDS	108	8/27	3.40	106	230%	55%	0.0%
HITK	109	8/27	27.01	350	22%	68%	0.0%
CSGS	110	8/27	12.82	426	18%	81%	0.0%
CA	111	8/27	19.92	9,980	12%	307%	0.9%
MCO	112	8/27	29.77	6,892	12%	277%	1.7%
ASEI	113	8/27	65.33	610	16%	94%	2.4%
BSQR	114	8/27	4.56	53	12%	471%	0.0%
BRKS	115	8/27	8.97	584	25%	60%	0.0%
WU	116	8/27	16.26	10,338	11%	710%	1.7%
COOL	117	8/27	2.30	93	14%	127%	0.0%
GMAN	118	8/27	14.82	286	15%	97%	0.0%
SAI	119	8/27	14.44	5,025	17%	81%	0.0%
GPS	120	8/27	16.28	8,873	22%	62%	2.7%
GD	121	8/27	61.28	22,760	16%	81%	3.0%
LPH	122	8/27	1.09	111	110%	50%	0.0%
OVTI	123	8/27	17.27	1,061	25%	58%	0.0%
PWRD	124	8/27	21.87	1,158	17%	75%	0.0%
ICON	125	8/27	18.13	1,367	11%	466%	0.0%
ATVI	126	8/27	11.28	12,972	11%	703%	1.5%
MYGN	127	8/27	19.28	1,698	12%	261%	0.0%
DISH	128	8/27	22.24	9,948	16%	78%	0.0%
INTC	129	8/27	19.77	107,569	17%	76%	3.8%
LXK	130	8/27	30.36	2,429	27%	55%	0.0%
EXPR	131	8/27	17.59	1,563	14%	112%	0.0%
TNH	132	8/27	178.24	3,297	11%	432%	6.5%
YONG	133	8/27	4.55	223	35%	50%	0.0%
GSIT	134	8/27	4.82	147	25%	54%	0.0%
LLTC	135	8/27	27.42	6,405	12%	161%	3.6%
LO	136	8/27	110.11	15,631	11%	722%	4.5%
QLGC	137	8/27	13.29	1,406	14%	97%	0.0%
LLY	138	8/27	35.77	39,846	17%	70%	5.5%
GCI	139	8/27	10.69	2,608	22%	56%	1.6%
WSTL	140	8/27	2.47	173	25%	53%	0.0%
OSIR	141	8/27	5.27	175	11%	555%	0.0%
MGIC	142	8/27	4.16	154	11%	588%	0.0%
TRW	143	8/27	37.86	5,088	21%	57%	0.0%
GILD	144	8/27	38.73	31,015	12%	165%	0.0%
MFW	145	8/27	21.40	417	12%	133%	0.0%
OMPI	146	8/27	10.09	188	13%	109%	0.0%
PTNR	147	8/27	10.68	1,666	16%	71%	18.3%
DNB	148	8/27	65.56	3,258	11%	894%	2.2%
VCI	149	8/27	24.17	1,213	14%	103%	0.0%
SPU	150	8/27	2.15	57	709%	44%	0.0%
ERIC	151	8/27	10.77	34,798	15%	75%	3.3%
KONG	152	8/27	4.21	158	35%	46%	0.0%
LEA	153	8/27	44.16	4,743	19%	59%	0.6%
PRGS	154	8/27	19.94	1,381	12%	199%	0.0%
ASMI	155	8/27	25.87	1,682	27%	49%	2.4%
BTM	156	8/27	20.99	4,127	30%	47%	8.0%
HRS	157	8/27	37.69	4,700	16%	69%	2.7%
NTCT	158	8/27	12.61	547	11%	351%	0.0%
MHP	159	8/27	40.59	12,550	11%	276%	2.4%
NATH	160	8/27	19.00	99	12%	137%	0.0%
CGA	161	8/27	4.05	108	78%	44%	0.0%
UG	162	8/27	14.21	65	11%	217%	5.0%
BID	163	8/27	34.83	2,420	15%	72%	0.6%
LMT	164	8/27	73.25	25,388	14%	88%	4.0%
GPIC	165	8/27	7.44	61	24%	49%	0.0%
ITRN	166	8/27	12.26	257	15%	66%	8.2%
WWE	167	8/27	9.06	677	15%	74%	13.4%
PRIM	168	8/27	10.37	530	15%	66%	1.0%
FCX	169	8/27	44.53	42,571	24%	48%	2.1%
CACI	170	8/27	52.42	1,672	13%	100%	0.0%
VG	171	8/27	3.28	802	12%	152%	0.0%
NTRI	172	8/27	12.16	332	13%	88%	5.8%
BLC	173	8/27	5.09	529	14%	78%	1.0%
SBGI	174	8/27	7.62	619	14%	77%	3.3%
CVVT	175	8/27	2.30	82	87%	42%	0.0%
AEIS	176	8/27	9.81	433	31%	45%	0.0%
NANO	177	8/27	15.58	365	20%	52%	0.0%
BBY	178	8/27	24.79	9,847	23%	48%	2.5%
STO	179	8/27	23.18	73,773	39%	43%	4.9%
BKE	180	8/27	38.20	1,807	13%	91%	9.0%
TXN	181	8/27	25.52	30,114	15%	64%	2.1%
MPAA	182	8/27	9.81	120	12%	138%	0.0%
RBCN	183	8/27	13.22	316	29%	45%	0.0%
UFPT	184	8/27	14.92	104	18%	54%	0.0%
STEC	185	8/27	8.67	456	24%	46%	0.0%
QNST	186	8/27	10.52	522	11%	349%	0.0%
IOSP	187	8/27	25.13	616	16%	59%	0.0%
ALV	188	8/27	52.61	4,945	18%	54%	3.2%
MRX	189	8/27	37.45	2,514	10%	874%	0.8%
MCRL	190	8/27	9.93	626	14%	69%	1.5%
LNCR	191	8/27	20.70	1,966	14%	72%	4.0%
RTEC	192	8/27	6.98	224	32%	42%	0.0%
ALTR	193	8/27	36.30	11,976	11%	340%	0.7%
CEPH	194	8/27	80.63	7,120	12%	91%	0.0%
LLL	195	8/27	64.61	6,926	16%	58%	2.8%
PBI	196	8/27	19.06	3,890	12%	105%	7.8%
TNDM	197	8/27	11.21	386	17%	54%	0.0%
CTE	198	8/27	2.35	155	95%	38%	0.0%
MD	199	8/27	62.81	3,061	11%	196%	0.0%
AMSC	200	8/27	6.40	314	99%	38%	0.0%

Comparison With Official List

As people know, I do like to compare my list with the official list to see the differences/omissions. The primary one is GT Solar, which changed their ticker symbol. I need to change my logic of my program for the new symbol, but have been too lazy. Fidelity's stock research page still has them under SOLR, so my program doesn't find them.

Ticker	Mkt Cap	Date	My Ranking
ACAD	65.94	25-Aug	6
AFAM	176.31	25-Aug	24
AMED	467.48	25-Aug	45
APOL	6,120.50	25-Aug	20
AMAT	14,250.28	25-Aug	43
AGX	136.02	25-Aug	9
HRB	4,137.71	25-Aug	33
CPLA	471.34	25-Aug	19
CECO	1,197.38	25-Aug	41
CHKE	122.15	25-Aug	54
NEP	60.10	25-Aug	94
CMTL	693.34	25-Aug	63
CRAY	195.90	25-Aug	17
DELL	26,061.14	25-Aug	27
DLX	1,023.58	25-Aug	68
DLB	3,583.42	25-Aug	64
FRX	9,097.89	25-Aug	28
GTAT	1,381.77	25-Aug	#N/A
GTIV	223.73	25-Aug	69
ESI	1,894.04	25-Aug	16
KLAC	5,762.23	25-Aug	44
KFY	696.11	25-Aug	58
KLIC	599.80	25-Aug	30
LMLP	68.89	25-Aug	2
LTXC	297.16	25-Aug	36
LRCX	4,495.80	25-Aug	57
LPS	1,320.14	25-Aug	35
MIPS	256.75	25-Aug	103
MANT	1,303.94	25-Aug	61
MDP	1,067.80	25-Aug	74
MSFT	205,798.32	25-Aug	49
MNTA	831.92	25-Aug	18
NOC	14,243.80	25-Aug	73
NVMI	162.15	25-Aug	14
PDLI	796.83	25-Aug	8
PRX	1,033.62	25-Aug	23
PETS	211.10	25-Aug	67
PWER	750.86	25-Aug	42
PRSC	130.97	25-Aug	62
SNDK	8,107.37	25-Aug	22
STRA	1,088.86	25-Aug	48
SUPG	123.87	25-Aug	3
TNAV	352.99	25-Aug	7
TER	2,109.26	25-Aug	56
TSRA	689.77	25-Aug	10
USMO	331.52	25-Aug	34
UIS	708.48	25-Aug	25
EGY	336.54	25-Aug	40
VECO	1,418.86	25-Aug	12
VPHM	1,378.98	25-Aug	29

New Stocks to Top 50 and 100 Lists

I do try and list all new stocks to top 30 and 50 lists in past 52 weeks. We do have a few winners... or is that losers? AMAT is new to both lists as anyone who manufactures semiconducter machines seems to be there now. MNTA is also new to the top 30 list.

My Portfolio

I don't have my portfolio in front of me right now, but it does continue to struggle. I don't think anything further needs to be stated.