Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Why Chinese Stocks Struggle

There is great investor fear and uncertainty regarding Chinese stocks. Many of them have valuations that are "too good to believe" and so everyone looks for reasons not to believe. I am human and also worry that the numbers and company are not legit. So it becomes fertile ground for shorts.

CMFO was the most recent company to come under fire (CSKI, CBPO and LIWA have all been on the firing line as well). The insinuation was that they recently bought a company that was not worth anything and it was a way to siphon off $ (China Marine Food Group: Where Did Your Money Go?). Now I have no way of knowing whether the author's allegations are true. CMFO did refute them quite quickly (China Marine Details Acquisition of Hi-Power Beverage), but not before CMFO dropped 17%.

I find it interesting and telling that the bears have a much larger impact than when they write something bullish... panic is the stronger emotion. I will say that for all the stocks I listed above, if you bought them on the day of the short attack, you would have been well-rewarded, so I think that speaks for itself.

CMFO bounced back 5% yesterday.
CBPO was attacked January 26th and dropped from 11.76 to 8.71. They are now 11.75.
LIWA was attacked 3 times, Oct 6th, 20th and Nov 8th. The 20th attack caused a 2 day drop from $8.76 to $7.51 (they are now 8.99)

I can't find the CSKI attacks, they were longer ago. The stock is lower, but none of the allegations against CSKI (essentially fraud in their financial statements) have come true yet.

1 comment:

Nathan said...

Marsh, the official MFI list is alphabetically sorted. how do you then pick the highest ranked stocks? regards, Nathan