After 4.5 years and sitting at a 10% net loss, I am starting to decide that MFI is not for me... certainly not at the large scale I have been in it. This is real money. I know I have not followed the "rules" exactly, but that is not the reason I am down. If you had randomly invested over the period of time I got in over the MFI stock listing (100m and greater) and followed the rules exactly, you would be very close to me. I know this as I can super-impose my timing of initial investments against my monthly tracking portfolios.
Anyway, I think MFI crashes worse in bear markets and I don't have the stomach for another go as I had to battle back significantly from my hole during the 7/2007-3/2009 crash.
I will keep the blog going for a while and I will continue my tracking efforts and my stock contest. I will still invest in a basket of stocks from the MFI lists, but I am going to be at least 50% in cash and will generally be getting defensive (think PM, RAI and CEL). Then I intend to put more $ with experts (I like the Hussmann funds). If we get to more "normal" times, I will certainly revisit the approach. I think conceptually MFI works and it has "outperformed", albeit a net decrease. At my age and at my personal financial position, I need to start thinking more about income producing investments and keeping what I have as I have fewer years to rebuild.
I think the final blow was the overall realization of how much more fragile the stock markets and global economies are today than they have been in past recessions. It is almost scary, when you look at the European meltdowns, Japan's political and financial problems and the printing presses in the states. There is just way to much debt and the tools (outside of massive devaluation) are not there to deal with it globally. Toss in higher taxes in the pipe, high unemployment and total political hatred between parties in DC and you gotta start thinking safe havens in my shoes.
Monday, June 28, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Make Up Your Mind!
I bought PM over the weekend as I attempt to de-risk my portfolio. It was pretty funny as PM offered new guidance this morning,,, check out the variety of headlines:
PMI revised its forecast for 2010 full-year reported diluted earnings per share to a range of $3.70 to $3.80, based on prevailing exchange rates. Reported diluted earnings per share are projected to increase by approximately 14% to 17%, compared to $3.24 in 2009, up from the 10% to 13% range projected in April 2010. This higher projection, compared to the April 2010 guidance, reflects an improved business outlook, in particular with regards to Japan, and the positive impact of the reversal of certain tax provisions, offset by adverse currency of $0.20 per share.
And I would say the proof is in the price, the stocks was up 3% today.
- Philip Morris lowers outlook on weak euro
- Taking A Drag On Philip Morris International
- Philip Morris International Cuts Forecast
- The Buzz: Earnings estimates may still be too high
- Philip Morris cuts year share view on weak euro
- InPlay: Philip Morris International revises FY10 EPS guidance; sees growth of ~14-17% vs 10-13% projected in April 2010
- Philip Morris Revises 2010 Profit Outlook
PMI revised its forecast for 2010 full-year reported diluted earnings per share to a range of $3.70 to $3.80, based on prevailing exchange rates. Reported diluted earnings per share are projected to increase by approximately 14% to 17%, compared to $3.24 in 2009, up from the 10% to 13% range projected in April 2010. This higher projection, compared to the April 2010 guidance, reflects an improved business outlook, in particular with regards to Japan, and the positive impact of the reversal of certain tax provisions, offset by adverse currency of $0.20 per share.
And I would say the proof is in the price, the stocks was up 3% today.
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Mecahnical Update - June 20 2010
One new stock to the mechanical portfolio, SCEI. It is another Chinese company, so I will not be a buyer... as they just announced they have filed to possibly dilute their stock owners as well (Sino Clean Energy Inc. Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock). Here are my open mechanical positions, you can see the open stocks have been struggling a mite.
| Symbol | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff | |
| SHAW | 7/10/09 | 23.69 | 36.56 | - | 87.96 | 1.58 | 54.3% | 28.8% | 25.5% |
| RTN | 7/24/09 | 45.39 | 53.25 | 1.00 | 98.06 | 1.58 | 19.5% | 15.5% | 4.0% |
| CBZ | 7/31/09 | 6.54 | 6.72 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | 2.8% | 14.7% | -11.9% |
| CBI | 7/31/09 | 13.95 | 20.86 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | 49.5% | 14.7% | 34.9% |
| DRC | 7/31/09 | 29.11 | 34.53 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | 18.6% | 14.7% | 3.9% |
| JEC | 7/31/09 | 40.98 | 41.62 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | 1.6% | 14.7% | -13.1% |
| NPSP | 7/31/09 | 3.89 | 6.90 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | 77.4% | 14.7% | 62.7% |
| ASGN | 7/31/09 | 4.23 | 5.51 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | 30.3% | 14.7% | 15.6% |
| AGX | 8/7/09 | 12.35 | 10.26 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | -16.9% | 14.7% | -31.6% |
| BBND | 8/7/09 | 4.00 | 2.94 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | -26.5% | 14.7% | -41.2% |
| LHCG | 8/7/09 | 24.55 | 29.93 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | 21.9% | 14.7% | 7.2% |
| RGR | 8/7/09 | 11.45 | 15.82 | 0.28 | 98.81 | 1.58 | 40.6% | 14.7% | 25.9% |
| PRIM | 8/7/09 | 6.95 | 6.08 | 0.08 | 100.79 | 1.58 | -11.4% | 12.4% | -23.9% |
| SEPR | 8/7/09 | 18.12 | 23.00 | - | 100.79 | 1.58 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 14.5% |
| CEU | 8/21/09 | 5.10 | 4.24 | - | 102.96 | 1.58 | -16.9% | 10.0% | -26.9% |
| CYTK | 8/21/09 | 3.04 | 2.80 | - | 102.96 | 1.58 | -7.9% | 10.0% | -17.9% |
| CMFO | 8/28/09 | 4.55 | 4.67 | - | 102.96 | 1.58 | 2.6% | 10.0% | -7.4% |
| NAVR | 9/4/09 | 1.79 | 2.21 | - | 102.60 | 1.58 | 23.5% | 10.4% | 13.0% |
| WTW | 9/11/09 | 26.00 | 26.65 | 0.53 | 104.77 | 1.58 | 4.5% | 8.1% | -3.6% |
| MIPS | 9/18/09 | 3.72 | 5.28 | - | 106.72 | 1.58 | 41.9% | 6.2% | 35.8% |
| ESI | 10/30/09 | 90.35 | 94.88 | - | 103.56 | 1.07 | 5.0% | 8.9% | -3.9% |
| VRSK | 10/30/09 | 27.43 | 30.40 | - | 103.56 | 1.07 | 10.8% | 8.9% | 1.9% |
| APOL | 11/6/09 | 55.99 | 48.39 | - | 107.13 | 1.07 | -13.6% | 5.3% | -18.9% |
| CBST | 11/6/09 | 17.60 | 20.85 | - | 107.13 | 1.07 | 18.5% | 5.3% | 13.2% |
| SNTA | 11/6/09 | 3.20 | 3.60 | - | 107.13 | 1.07 | 12.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% |
| IMMU | 11/6/09 | 3.61 | 3.48 | - | 107.13 | 1.07 | -3.6% | 5.3% | -8.9% |
| PBH | 11/13/09 | 6.95 | 7.56 | - | 109.62 | 1.07 | 8.8% | 2.9% | 5.9% |
| IDCC | 11/20/09 | 23.56 | 25.82 | - | 109.43 | 1.07 | 9.6% | 3.1% | 6.5% |
| PDLI | 11/27/09 | 6.63 | 5.72 | 0.50 | 109.57 | 1.07 | -6.2% | 2.9% | -9.1% |
| CBPO | 12/4/09 | 9.06 | 10.79 | - | 111.01 | 1.07 | 19.1% | 1.6% | 17.5% |
| XOMA | 12/4/09 | 0.72 | 0.50 | - | 111.01 | 1.07 | -30.9% | 1.6% | -32.5% |
| Valv | 12/31/09 | 5.15 | 8.28 | - | 111.44 | 0.48 | 60.8% | 0.7% | 60.1% |
| RAI | 1/15/10 | 53.81 | 52.76 | 0.90 | 113.64 | 0.48 | -0.3% | -1.3% | 1.0% |
| TRMS | 1/15/10 | 2.45 | 2.21 | - | 113.64 | 0.48 | -9.8% | -1.3% | -8.5% |
| SAI | 1/15/10 | 18.90 | 17.99 | - | 113.64 | 0.48 | -4.8% | -1.3% | -3.6% |
| NATH | 1/28/10 | 14.70 | 15.40 | - | 108.57 | 0.48 | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| SMED | 2/5/10 | 6.74 | 4.66 | - | 106.66 | 0.48 | -30.9% | 5.2% | -36.1% |
| SPMD | 2/5/10 | 36.63 | 28.49 | - | 106.66 | 0.48 | -22.2% | 5.2% | -27.4% |
| UIS | 2/5/10 | 34.25 | 22.79 | - | 106.66 | 0.48 | -33.5% | 5.2% | -38.7% |
| QKLS | 2/12/10 | 5.69 | 5.18 | - | 108.04 | 0.48 | -9.0% | 3.9% | -12.8% |
| MGIC | 2/12/10 | 1.78 | 2.45 | - | 108.04 | 0.48 | 37.6% | 3.9% | 33.8% |
| ESIC | 2/19/10 | 2.07 | 2.57 | - | 111.14 | 0.48 | 24.2% | 1.0% | 23.2% |
| ODSY | 2/19/10 | 17.89 | 26.76 | - | 111.14 | 0.48 | 49.6% | 1.0% | 48.6% |
| HRB | 2/26/10 | 17.28 | 15.80 | 0.15 | 110.74 | 0.48 | -7.7% | 1.3% | -9.0% |
| TNDM | 2/26/10 | 16.12 | 11.95 | - | 110.74 | 0.48 | -25.9% | 1.3% | -27.2% |
| DEXO | 2/26/10 | 29.80 | 23.42 | - | 110.74 | 0.48 | -21.4% | 1.3% | -22.7% |
| AFAM | 3/5/10 | 35.52 | 36.43 | - | 114.25 | 0.48 | 2.6% | -1.8% | 4.3% |
| DNB | 3/5/10 | 69.95 | 73.23 | - | 114.25 | 0.48 | 4.7% | -1.8% | 6.5% |
| SNTS | 3/5/10 | 4.87 | 2.57 | - | 114.25 | 0.48 | -47.2% | -1.8% | -45.4% |
| KIRK | 3/12/10 | 20.11 | 20.17 | - | 115.46 | 0.48 | 0.3% | -2.8% | 3.1% |
| PRSC | 3/12/10 | 14.18 | 16.58 | - | 115.46 | 0.48 | 16.9% | -2.8% | 19.7% |
| QDEL | 3/25/10 | 13.73 | 12.35 | - | 116.58 | - | -10.1% | -4.2% | -5.9% |
| SVA | 4/9/10 | 5.83 | 4.26 | - | 119.55 | - | -26.9% | -6.5% | -20.4% |
| VALU | 4/9/10 | 22.07 | 17.90 | 3.00 | 119.55 | - | -5.3% | -6.5% | 1.2% |
| BDSI | 4/16/10 | 4.12 | 2.76 | - | 119.36 | - | -33.0% | -6.4% | -26.6% |
| LOV | 4/23/10 | 3.45 | 3.60 | - | 121.81 | - | 4.3% | -8.3% | 12.6% |
| MD | 4/23/10 | 57.02 | 58.97 | - | 121.81 | - | 3.4% | -8.3% | 11.7% |
| ABC | 4/23/10 | 31.13 | 32.56 | - | 121.81 | - | 4.6% | -8.3% | 12.9% |
| SNDK | 4/30/10 | 39.84 | 49.02 | - | 121.81 | - | 23.0% | -8.3% | 31.3% |
| OSK | 4/30/10 | 38.62 | 35.26 | - | 121.81 | - | -8.7% | -8.3% | -0.4% |
| GXDX | 5/7/10 | 27.89 | 16.67 | - | 111.26 | - | -40.2% | 0.4% | -40.7% |
| IPXL | 5/7/10 | 16.66 | 21.40 | - | 111.26 | - | 28.5% | 0.4% | 28.0% |
| SOHU | 5/7/10 | 44.19 | 44.03 | - | 111.26 | - | -0.4% | 0.4% | -0.8% |
| CHOP | 5/14/10 | 6.54 | 5.97 | - | 113.89 | - | -8.7% | -1.9% | -6.8% |
| LIWA | 5/14/10 | 8.24 | 8.70 | - | 113.89 | - | 5.6% | -1.9% | 7.5% |
| FLL | 5/14/10 | 3.10 | 3.15 | - | 113.89 | - | 1.6% | -1.9% | 3.5% |
| MRX | 5/21/10 | 22.50 | 23.20 | - | 107.71 | - | 3.1% | 3.7% | -0.6% |
| CRXX | 6/4/10 | 1.53 | 1.64 | - | 106.82 | - | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.6% |
| DJCO | 6/4/10 | 71.00 | 71.50 | - | 106.82 | - | 0.7% | 4.6% | -3.9% |
| TNAV | 6/4/10 | 8.53 | 8.40 | - | 106.82 | - | -1.5% | 4.6% | -6.1% |
| JGBO | 6/11/10 | 8.45 | 9.00 | - | 109.68 | - | 6.5% | 1.9% | 4.6% |
| DRWI | 6/11/10 | 5.94 | 6.30 | - | 109.68 | - | 6.1% | 1.9% | 4.2% |
| SCEI | 6/18/10 | 5.94 | 7.36 | - | 111.73 | - | 23.9% | 0.0% | 23.9% |
| Top 50 Portfolio | |||||||||
| Totals | 17.8% | 1.2% | 16.6% | ||||||
| 53.8% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | Closed | 22.8% | 0.2% | 22.6% | |||||
| S&P C | 111.73 | Open | 4.6% | 4.0% | 0.6% | ||||
| Top 30 Portfolio | |||||||||
| Totals | 20.3% | 6.0% | 14.3% | ||||||
| Closed | 30.3% | 6.3% | 23.9% | ||||||
| MFLO39473 | 77.6% | Open | 3.6% | 5.6% | -1.9% | ||||
Thursday, June 17, 2010
The Way it Works
Still on my soapbox regarding UTA and their stock raising at $7 a share. I saw today a little more detail about the transaction (Brean Murray, Carret & Co. Completes a $20 Million Follow-On Offering for Universal Travel Group).
What is interesting is that Brean Murray is the only analyst with an opinion/estimate on UTA. They said to "buy" back at $9.30 a share in late March. In my opinion there may have been horse-trading involved... "you start us off with a "buy" and we'll steer a stock placement to you." Doesn't matter to me, as I bought UTA way earlier and B-M did not cause my decision. But people who bought at $9.30+ (they ran up to $10 post the buy recommendation) were potentially screwed in my opinion if B-M was aware of the likelihood of the secondary.
What is interesting is that Brean Murray is the only analyst with an opinion/estimate on UTA. They said to "buy" back at $9.30 a share in late March. In my opinion there may have been horse-trading involved... "you start us off with a "buy" and we'll steer a stock placement to you." Doesn't matter to me, as I bought UTA way earlier and B-M did not cause my decision. But people who bought at $9.30+ (they ran up to $10 post the buy recommendation) were potentially screwed in my opinion if B-M was aware of the likelihood of the secondary.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Why Chinese Stocks Struggle 2
My timely article was punctuated today as UTA got crushed by 10% as they inanely diluted current shareholders by 20% to raise $20m at a share price 15% below the 50 day moving average (Universal Travel to raise $20M with stock sale). I swear if I have one more Chinese company do these shenanigans, I am going to vomit. I do wonder whether a fair amount of self-dealing is going on. It doesn't matter if you are growing income by 20% a year if share count is increasing at the same pace.
Then to add fuel to the fire, GXDX was absolutely torched (down 25%) as they lowered 2010 guidance from $1.8 to $1.20 (Genoptix Shares Slammed After Guidance Cut). How can you miss by that much???
If you can not tell, I am getting pretty frustrated by Magic Formula stocks.
Then to add fuel to the fire, GXDX was absolutely torched (down 25%) as they lowered 2010 guidance from $1.8 to $1.20 (Genoptix Shares Slammed After Guidance Cut). How can you miss by that much???
If you can not tell, I am getting pretty frustrated by Magic Formula stocks.
Why Chinese Stocks Struggle
There is great investor fear and uncertainty regarding Chinese stocks. Many of them have valuations that are "too good to believe" and so everyone looks for reasons not to believe. I am human and also worry that the numbers and company are not legit. So it becomes fertile ground for shorts.
CMFO was the most recent company to come under fire (CSKI, CBPO and LIWA have all been on the firing line as well). The insinuation was that they recently bought a company that was not worth anything and it was a way to siphon off $ (China Marine Food Group: Where Did Your Money Go?). Now I have no way of knowing whether the author's allegations are true. CMFO did refute them quite quickly (China Marine Details Acquisition of Hi-Power Beverage), but not before CMFO dropped 17%.
I find it interesting and telling that the bears have a much larger impact than when they write something bullish... panic is the stronger emotion. I will say that for all the stocks I listed above, if you bought them on the day of the short attack, you would have been well-rewarded, so I think that speaks for itself.
CMFO bounced back 5% yesterday.
CBPO was attacked January 26th and dropped from 11.76 to 8.71. They are now 11.75.
LIWA was attacked 3 times, Oct 6th, 20th and Nov 8th. The 20th attack caused a 2 day drop from $8.76 to $7.51 (they are now 8.99)
I can't find the CSKI attacks, they were longer ago. The stock is lower, but none of the allegations against CSKI (essentially fraud in their financial statements) have come true yet.
CMFO was the most recent company to come under fire (CSKI, CBPO and LIWA have all been on the firing line as well). The insinuation was that they recently bought a company that was not worth anything and it was a way to siphon off $ (China Marine Food Group: Where Did Your Money Go?). Now I have no way of knowing whether the author's allegations are true. CMFO did refute them quite quickly (China Marine Details Acquisition of Hi-Power Beverage), but not before CMFO dropped 17%.
I find it interesting and telling that the bears have a much larger impact than when they write something bullish... panic is the stronger emotion. I will say that for all the stocks I listed above, if you bought them on the day of the short attack, you would have been well-rewarded, so I think that speaks for itself.
CMFO bounced back 5% yesterday.
CBPO was attacked January 26th and dropped from 11.76 to 8.71. They are now 11.75.
LIWA was attacked 3 times, Oct 6th, 20th and Nov 8th. The 20th attack caused a 2 day drop from $8.76 to $7.51 (they are now 8.99)
I can't find the CSKI attacks, they were longer ago. The stock is lower, but none of the allegations against CSKI (essentially fraud in their financial statements) have come true yet.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
New Mechanical Stocks - June 12th 2010
New stocks hitting my mechanical screens this weekend, for those that still have the stomach. It hasn't been overwhelmingly successful of late.
New to the top 30 screen: JGBO and VALU
New to the top 50 screeen: JGBO and DRWI.
JGBO looks like another ungodly cheap Chinese stock. It is hard to say whether people investing in these stocks will double their money in a few years, or whether there is some hair we don't know about. I have enough of these, so I will not be a buyer.
But per their financials they have a market cap of $97m. They have, in cash alone, $102m! They just made 50 cents per share in the past quarter. They expect operating income between $42m and $46m this year. So even without excess cash, they're trading at about a 50% earnings yield! I think I am talking myself into buying them...
Valu we all know about.It may be a bit over-rated as they paid a special dividend that isn't reflected in their financial statements yet. Then DRWI is expecting their earnings to dop in this upcoming year. That being said, they still look tempting.
New to the top 30 screen: JGBO and VALU
New to the top 50 screeen: JGBO and DRWI.
JGBO looks like another ungodly cheap Chinese stock. It is hard to say whether people investing in these stocks will double their money in a few years, or whether there is some hair we don't know about. I have enough of these, so I will not be a buyer.
But per their financials they have a market cap of $97m. They have, in cash alone, $102m! They just made 50 cents per share in the past quarter. They expect operating income between $42m and $46m this year. So even without excess cash, they're trading at about a 50% earnings yield! I think I am talking myself into buying them...
Valu we all know about.It may be a bit over-rated as they paid a special dividend that isn't reflected in their financial statements yet. Then DRWI is expecting their earnings to dop in this upcoming year. That being said, they still look tempting.
Saturday, June 12, 2010
Mecahnical Update - June 12 2010
As I have mentioned this week, the formula is falling on tough times. In my mechanical apprach, which has worked quite well, the open stocks are trailing the S&P 500 in the top 30 list. Many of the recent additions are downright dreadful:
| Symbol | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff | |
| ONTY | 6/11/09 | 2.60 | 3.51 | - | 95.08 | 2.10 | 35.0% | 17.6% | 17.4% |
| VM | 6/11/09 | 4.24 | 5.50 | - | 95.08 | 2.10 | 29.7% | 17.6% | 12.2% |
| BPI | 6/19/09 | 16.74 | 19.70 | - | 92.04 | 1.58 | 17.7% | 20.9% | -3.2% |
| MTXX | 7/2/09 | 5.77 | 4.57 | - | 91.84 | 1.58 | -20.8% | 21.1% | -41.9% |
| JTX | 7/2/09 | 5.74 | 1.58 | - | 91.84 | 1.58 | -72.5% | 21.1% | -93.6% |
| GIGM | 7/24/09 | 4.98 | 2.31 | - | 98.06 | 1.58 | -53.6% | 13.5% | -67.1% |
| CBI | 7/31/09 | 13.95 | 18.41 | - | 98.81 | 1.58 | 32.0% | 12.6% | 19.4% |
| BR | 7/31/09 | 17.27 | 19.55 | 0.42 | 98.81 | 1.58 | 15.6% | 12.6% | 3.0% |
| LO | 7/31/09 | 73.72 | 73.71 | 3.00 | 98.81 | 1.58 | 4.1% | 12.6% | -8.5% |
| ITWO | 8/7/09 | 14.36 | 19.73 | - | 101.20 | 1.58 | 37.4% | 9.9% | 27.5% |
| BKE | 8/14/09 | 26.54 | 34.85 | 2.20 | 100.79 | 1.58 | 39.6% | 10.4% | 29.2% |
| GTLS | 8/14/09 | 20.73 | 18.13 | - | 100.79 | 1.58 | -12.5% | 10.4% | -22.9% |
| PRIM | 8/14/09 | 6.95 | 5.95 | 0.08 | 100.79 | 1.58 | -13.3% | 10.4% | -23.7% |
| SEPR | 8/14/09 | 18.12 | 23.00 | - | 100.79 | 1.58 | 26.9% | 10.4% | 16.5% |
| PVSW | 8/14/09 | 5.00 | 4.85 | - | 100.79 | 1.58 | -3.0% | 10.4% | -13.4% |
| CEU | 8/21/09 | 5.10 | 4.08 | - | 102.96 | 1.58 | -20.0% | 8.1% | -28.1% |
| cytk | 8/28/09 | 3.04 | 2.78 | - | 103.38 | 1.58 | -8.6% | 7.6% | -16.2% |
| jcom | 8/28/09 | 22.14 | 22.99 | - | 103.38 | 1.58 | 3.8% | 7.6% | -3.8% |
| AMED | 9/4/09 | 35.00 | 46.33 | - | 102.06 | 1.58 | 32.4% | 9.0% | 23.4% |
| MIPS | 9/18/09 | 3.72 | 5.47 | - | 106.72 | 1.58 | 47.0% | 4.3% | 42.8% |
| MHP | 9/25/09 | 23.67 | 28.87 | 0.46 | 104.45 | 1.07 | 23.9% | 6.0% | 17.9% |
| AGX | 10/16/09 | 12.50 | 10.27 | - | 108.89 | 1.07 | -17.8% | 1.7% | -19.5% |
| BBND | 10/30/09 | 3.70 | 2.92 | - | 103.56 | 1.07 | -21.1% | 6.9% | -28.0% |
| FLR | 10/30/09 | 44.42 | 45.61 | - | 103.56 | 1.07 | 2.7% | 6.9% | -4.3% |
| RGR | 10/30/09 | 10.62 | 15.62 | 0.28 | 103.56 | 1.07 | 49.7% | 6.9% | 42.8% |
| RTN | 10/30/09 | 45.28 | 51.71 | 0.69 | 103.56 | 1.07 | 15.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% |
| VRSK | 10/30/09 | 27.43 | 29.55 | - | 103.56 | 1.07 | 7.7% | 6.9% | 0.8% |
| immu | 11/6/09 | 3.61 | 3.32 | - | 107.13 | 1.07 | -8.0% | 3.4% | -11.4% |
| cbst | 11/6/09 | 17.60 | 20.57 | - | 107.13 | 1.07 | 16.9% | 3.4% | 13.5% |
| snta | 11/6/09 | 3.20 | 3.30 | - | 107.13 | 1.07 | 3.1% | 3.4% | -0.3% |
| CNU | 11/13/09 | 3.10 | 3.97 | - | 109.62 | 1.07 | 28.1% | 1.0% | 27.0% |
| IDCC | 11/20/09 | 23.56 | 25.29 | - | 109.43 | 1.07 | 7.3% | 1.2% | 6.1% |
| PDLI | 11/27/09 | 6.63 | 5.43 | 0.50 | 109.57 | 1.07 | -10.6% | 1.1% | -11.6% |
| ARO | 12/4/09 | 28.95 | 45.68 | - | 111.01 | 1.07 | 57.8% | -0.2% | 58.0% |
| CBPO | 12/4/09 | 9.06 | 11.34 | - | 111.01 | 1.07 | 25.1% | -0.2% | 25.3% |
| VALV | 12/31/09 | 5.15 | 8.50 | - | 111.44 | 0.48 | 65.0% | -1.1% | 66.2% |
| SMED | 2/5/10 | 6.74 | 4.19 | - | 106.66 | 0.48 | -37.8% | 3.3% | -41.1% |
| SPMD | 2/5/10 | 36.63 | 24.29 | - | 106.66 | 0.48 | -33.7% | 3.3% | -37.0% |
| XOMA | 2/5/10 | 0.42 | 0.44 | - | 106.66 | 0.48 | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.7% |
| MGIC | 2/19/10 | 1.77 | 2.10 | - | 111.14 | 0.48 | 18.6% | -0.9% | 19.5% |
| UIS | 2/26/10 | 34.91 | 21.21 | - | 110.74 | 0.48 | -39.2% | -0.5% | -38.7% |
| SNTS | 3/5/10 | 4.87 | 2.62 | - | 114.25 | 0.48 | -46.2% | -3.6% | -42.6% |
| PRSC | 3/12/10 | 14.18 | 15.93 | - | 115.46 | 0.48 | 12.3% | -4.6% | 16.9% |
| WTW | 3/19/10 | 25.20 | 26.79 | - | 115.97 | - | 6.3% | -5.4% | 11.7% |
| QDEL | 3/25/10 | 13.73 | 10.91 | - | 116.58 | - | -20.5% | -5.9% | -14.6% |
| BDSI | 4/16/10 | 4.12 | 2.66 | - | 119.36 | - | -35.4% | -8.1% | -27.3% |
| ABC | 4/23/10 | 31.13 | 31.92 | - | 121.81 | - | 2.5% | -10.0% | 12.5% |
| APOL | 4/30/10 | 57.41 | 51.10 | - | 118.81 | - | -11.0% | -7.7% | -3.3% |
| SVA | 4/30/10 | 5.79 | 4.10 | - | 118.81 | - | -29.2% | -7.7% | -21.5% |
| OSK | 4/30/10 | 38.62 | 34.66 | - | 118.81 | - | -10.3% | -7.7% | -2.6% |
| VPHM | 5/7/10 | 12.06 | 11.65 | - | 111.26 | - | -3.4% | -1.4% | -2.0% |
| CHOP | 5/14/10 | 6.54 | 5.69 | - | 113.89 | - | -13.0% | -3.7% | -9.3% |
| MRX | 5/21/10 | 22.50 | 23.08 | - | 107.71 | - | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| CRXX | 6/4/10 | 1.53 | 1.33 | - | 106.82 | - | -13.1% | 2.7% | -15.7% |
| TNAV | 6/4/10 | 8.53 | 8.36 | - | 106.82 | - | -2.0% | 2.7% | -4.7% |
| Totals | 19.4% | 5.4% | 14.1% | ||||||
| 56.3% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | Closed | 31.0% | 5.4% | 25.6% | |||||
| S&P C | 109.68 | Open | 2.2% | 5.0% | -2.8% | ||||
Wednesday, June 09, 2010
MFI MIA or DOA?
I have been tracking and investing in MFI since January 2006. I know JG said to give it 3 to 5 years, but I am here to say officially that almost 4.5 years into it that it ain't working. This is not based on my actual investing, which it has been pointed out has not followed the rules to the letter, though it has in spirit. This is rather based upon doing exactly what JG backtested, taking the top 25 to 30 stocks every month and holding them for a year. That is exactly what my tracking portfolios do and if you had invested $100,000 evenly in 12 months of 2006, you'd be sitting on $96k. Granted that is better than the $90k you'd have if you'd have gone for the Russell 3000 in the same fashion, but it is pretty lame and works out -1% annual return vs -2% for the IWV.
At that rate, we are not going to have to worry about JG's final chapter when he asks what we should do with all the money.
I am not sure I understand why it has been so poor. These have been unprecedented times, to be sure. But I have been stunned how the approach has underperformed in bear markets. I do wonder if the backtesting wasn't over a long enough period of time as the years JG used were pretty good investing years, except for the bear market post the internet bubble. And that was not your everyday bear market, there were many "old economy" value stocks that did quite well while Yahoo, Pets.com and others crashed.
What does everyone else think? Need to wait longer to judge MFI (MIA?) or was it over-hyped (DOA?).
At that rate, we are not going to have to worry about JG's final chapter when he asks what we should do with all the money.
I am not sure I understand why it has been so poor. These have been unprecedented times, to be sure. But I have been stunned how the approach has underperformed in bear markets. I do wonder if the backtesting wasn't over a long enough period of time as the years JG used were pretty good investing years, except for the bear market post the internet bubble. And that was not your everyday bear market, there were many "old economy" value stocks that did quite well while Yahoo, Pets.com and others crashed.
What does everyone else think? Need to wait longer to judge MFI (MIA?) or was it over-hyped (DOA?).
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