Friday, May 30, 2008

May 28 2007 Tracking Portfolio

May 29th, 2007 hit its birthday today. Not sure if they were singing “Happy Birthday” or playing “The Death March”.

It ended up down 11.5%, which to date is the worst single month performer that I have tracked. The benchmark Russell 3000 was down 6.3%. Past portfolios have had standard deviations around 40%. This may have been the highest yet at 47.7%. That is huge. So while the average stock went down 11.5%, one standard deviation takes you from -59.2% to + 36.2%. It is all about picking the right stocks and avoiding the wrong stocks… not my forte of late.

There were a few outsized winners:

FDG: +188%, perhaps the best ever in my tracking

WDC: +104%

BPT: +64%

EGY: +58%

TGB: +51%

But some big time losers as well:

SCSS: -85%, definitely the worst I have had

WON: -80%, needs to change the name

CHCG: -72%, I feel the pain

PNCL: -64%, they certainly had a roller coaster two years on the list

TZOO, JTX, KG, & MTEX: all down more than 50% - there were certainly a bunch of potholes on May’s list in 2008.

Here are all of them:

ALOY $11.42 $8.51 -25.5%

AEO $26.46 $18.61 -29.7%

AMAT $19.03 $19.54 2.7%

AVCI $6.83 $5.43 -20.5%

AXCA $18.58 $23.34 25.6%

BPT $58.42 $95.76 63.9%

BBSI $24.47 $12.64 -48.3%

CHCG.OB $5.74 $1.63 -71.6%

CRYP $23.16 $16.96 -26.8%

FTD $16.66 $14.69 -11.8%

FDG $27.43 $78.96 187.9%

FTO $38.37 $30.29 -21.1%

GNI $100.83 $118.40 17.4%

HURC $47.0 $35.83 -23.8%

IVAC $20.05 $11.72 -41.5%

JAKK $25.83 $23.23 -10.1%

JTX $28.08 $13.61 -51.5%

KSWS $28.01 $15.61 -44.3%

KG $21.49 $10.21 -52.5%

KFY $25.20 $16.59 -34.2%

LRCX $53.26 $40.35 -24.2%

LXK $52.46 $36.54 -30.3%

MTEX $14.90 $6.43 -56.8%

NOOF $8.03 $4.85 -39.6%

NXG $3.16 $3.06 -3.2%

NUE $63.54 $75.0 18.0%

OVTI $15.08 $17.12 13.5%

PDII $10.55 $8.41 -20.3%

PWEI $35.01 $33.50 -4.3%

PACR $25.87 $21.88 -15.4%

PALM $8.59 $6.01 -30.0%

PNCL $17.98 $6.55 -63.6%

PPD $64.96 $40.52 -37.6%

PBH $12.86 $10.19 -20.8%

DGX $47.93 $50.43 5.2%

SCSS $17.88 $2.67 -85.1%

PCU $82.78 $108.64 31.2%

SUPX $31.93 $25.60 -19.8%

TGB $3.37 $4.90 45.4%

TCK $39.69 $50.22 26.5%

TZOO $26.05 $10.64 -59.2%

USNA $41.33 $25.84 -37.5%

UTMD $31.32 $30.25 -3.4%

EGY $4.98 $7.89 58.4%

VALU $42.64 $41.11 -3.6%

VGR $18.18 $17.46 -4.0%

WDC $17.98 $36.74 104.3%

WON $7.99 $1.63 -79.6%

Then here is how all the closed portfolios have performed:

Date

Total

IWV

1/6/2006

16.0%

10.9%

2/17/2006

21.2%

14.6%

3/29/2006

13.0%

9.6%

4/7/2006

10.3%

12.1%

5/12/2006

20.4%

18.6%

5/31/2006

29.2%

23.3%

6/30/2006

22.4%

20.0%

7/31/2006

19.7%

17.3%

8/31/2006

13.0%

13.3%

9/28/2006

12.7%

14.6%

10/27/2006

10.3%

12.0%

11/29/2006

-0.3%

4.8%

12/28/2006

-6.9%

3.4%

1/26/2007

-10.2%

-6.6%

2/27/2007

-3.7%

-1.0%

3/26/2007

-9.8%

-5.5%

4/27/2007

-10.9%

-5.0%

5/29/2007

-11.5%

-6.3%

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