In with the new...

On Friday I "sold" ENDP, PFE, CHCG and FRX. So they are no longer part of my portfolio. They were all scheduled to be June sales, I did pull the trigger a couple of days early. Here is how they fared:

		Data
Symbol	Purchase Date	Initial Price	Current Price	Avg of Gain	Avg of IWV Gain
CHCG	6/9/2009	$1.12	$0.33	-70.5%	15.7%
ENDP	6/12/2009	$16.72	$20.77	24.2%	15.1%
FRX	6/9/2009	$23.10	$27.05	17.1%	15.7%
PFE	6/9/2009	$14.13	$14.76	9.3%	15.7%
Grand Total		$15.63	$17.99	-0.6%	15.5%

Not exactly a home run, though thankfully I invested less $ in CHCG. I have bought some new stocks. As I mentioned in my blog earlier this week, I bought TNAV and FLL, and then Friday I decided to get way defensive with PM, my second (along with RAI) tobacco stock. So here are my current holdings, it should be quiet the rest of the month.

		Data
Purchase Date	Symbol	Initial Price	Current Price	Avg of Gain	Avg of IWV Gain
7/21/2009	TTT	$8.92	$10.71	20.1%	14.0%
7/27/2009	GIGM	$5.02	$2.37	-52.8%	10.6%
	RTN	$45.61	$51.47	15.0%	10.6%
7/30/2009	BIOC	$3.70	$4.50	21.6%	10.2%
	BR	$16.53	$18.66	15.4%	10.2%
	CBI	$13.62	$18.23	33.8%	10.2%
8/14/2009	BKE	$26.66	$32.92	32.5%	7.8%
8/18/2009	PVSW	$4.96	$4.81	-3.0%	9.5%
8/26/2009	CEU	$5.40	$4.30	-20.4%	5.3%
8/27/2009	GTLS	$19.50	$17.23	-11.6%	5.3%
9/8/2009	AMED	$35.86	$47.62	32.8%	5.5%
9/21/2009	WTW	$26.00	$26.28	3.1%	1.2%
9/22/2009	QCOR	$5.42	$10.02	84.9%	0.5%
9/28/2009	TTT	$10.28	$10.71	4.2%	1.5%
9/30/2009	JCOM	$23.00	$22.73	-1.2%	2.0%
	PRIM	$7.30	$6.17	-14.8%	2.0%
10/2/2009	KSW	$3.60	$3.12	-10.6%	5.3%
10/14/2009	LIWA	$7.39	$8.15	10.3%	-1.3%
10/22/2009	AGX	$12.31	$10.10	-18.0%	-1.2%
10/30/2009	CMFO	$4.30	$5.65	31.4%	4.7%
	RGR	$10.59	$15.17	45.6%	4.7%
11/3/2009	ESI	$93.61	$98.62	5.4%	3.7%
11/17/2009	IDCC	$23.62	$25.35	7.3%	-2.5%
11/20/2009	QKLS	$5.75	$5.00	-13.0%	-0.7%
12/2/2009	TSRA	$23.92	$18.51	-22.6%	-2.3%
12/4/2009	CBPO	$9.15	$12.78	39.7%	-2.2%
12/18/2009	CF	$89.45	$60.93	-31.9%	-2.1%
12/21/2009	CYTK	$2.59	$2.80	8.1%	-2.1%
1/5/2010	VALV	$5.31	$8.28	55.9%	-4.2%
1/14/2010	TRMS	$2.46	$2.16	-12.2%	-6.0%
1/20/2010	RAI	$53.55	$51.99	-1.2%	-6.0%
1/29/2010	GXDX	$31.69	$25.35	-20.0%	-1.2%
2/5/2010	UIS	$34.07	$21.12	-38.0%	2.1%
2/23/2010	CSKI	$15.45	$12.19	-21.1%	-1.9%
2/27/2010	TNDM	$15.31	$12.61	-17.6%	-1.3%
3/1/2010	UIS	$35.22	$21.12	-40.0%	-3.4%
3/8/2010	DNB	$69.93	$70.49	1.3%	-6.1%
3/12/2010	PRSC	$14.35	$15.82	10.2%	-7.2%
3/18/2010	KSW	$3.65	$3.12	-11.8%	-7.4%
4/12/2010	NEWN	$8.20	$6.90	-15.9%	-10.4%
4/21/2010	CCME	$12.57	$12.17	-3.2%	-11.6%
4/30/2010	OSK	$39.33	$34.17	-13.1%	-11.3%
5/10/2010	SOHU	$45.94	$44.27	-3.6%	-7.2%
5/20/2010	CHKE	$19.11	$18.49	-1.3%	-1.8%
	IPXL	$19.23	$20.37	5.9%	-0.6%
5/24/2010	MRX	$22.64	$22.62	-0.1%	-1.2%
	UEPS	$13.70	$13.91	1.5%	-0.6%
5/31/2010	UTA	$8.36	$7.68	-8.1%	-2.6%
6/2/2010	FLL	$3.15	$3.19	1.3%	-1.2%
	TNAV	$8.32	$8.53	2.5%	-3.5%
6/4/2010	PM	$44.67	$43.74	-2.1%	-1.2%
Grand Total		$20.99	$20.30	1.6%	0.3%
Actual Totals (adj as all purchase not equal $)				0.5%	-0.3%
Mechanical				2.4%	1.0%

Finally, CHKE reported earnings mid day Friday right in the midst of the huge sell-off. I did not think their numbers were all that great, nor did the street (Cherokee Announces 1st Quarter Fiscal 2011 Financial Results). But if you subscribe to my dividend stock theory, probably a good time to buy as the dividend is now 7.8% (that was a driver behind my PM purchase... a 5.2% yield).

3rd Time the Charm

Check out my week-by-week graph (I am the magenta line)


I have hit virtually the same low 3 times. On July 31st last year, March 5th this year and now. I have to say that it is getting pretty frustrating. Sometimes I wonder why even bother investing. Here is a table basically showing the same facts but in numbers:

MFI Annual Performance
	ITD	Annual
2006	10.74%	10.74%
2007	-6.57%	-15.63%
2008	-41.60%	-37.50%
2009	0.71%	72.47%
2010	-8.84%	-9.48%
IWV Annual Performance
	ITD	Annual
2006	11.23%	11.23%
2007	4.65%	-5.91%
2008	-30.54%	-33.63%
2009	-13.95%	23.87%
2010	-16.66%	-3.14%

down 9.5% so far in 2010. Not good. Down 8.84% overall. Not good. If I had just bought a very simple corporate bond yielding 5% in January 2006, I'd be much much better off today.

I wish I had the answer. It seems like everything is so negative:

• Sovereign debt is in trouble
• unemployment is high
• taxes will go up in 2010
• the fed will at some point raise rates
• the gulf of mexico if filling up with oil

I know I will keep going forward, just via inertia. But my heart isn't really in it right now. At some point, the market will find a bottom. At some point.

TNAV

An interesting new stock hit the screen yesterday: TNAV. They seem to be a "new" company on the stock exchange as their prices only go back to May 13th. They closed that first day at $9.80 (priced at $9.50 per their S-1) and now they are $8.50 a share.

Now I have learned to always be a little cautious about the MFI screen on new stocks as the screen doesn't always have it right (I had a post last year about my unpleasant surprise with RST (View)). There does seem to be at least one mistake, on the market cap the screen shows the following:

Company Name (in alphabetical order)	Ticker	Market Cap ($ Millions)	Price From	Most Recent Quarter Data
Amedisys Inc	AMED	1,413.84	05/28	03/31
BioDelivery Sciences International Inc	BDSI	61.69	05/28	03/31
China Biologic Products Inc	CBPO	297.19	05/28	12/31
China Education Alliance Inc	CEU	129.18	05/28	12/31
China Gerui Advanced Materials Group Ltd	CHOP	253.85	05/28	03/31
China Sky One Medical Inc	CSKI	212.57	05/28	03/31
Cytokinetics Inc	CYTK	183.69	05/28	03/31
EarthLink Inc	ELNK	926.84	05/28	03/31
Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings Inc	ENDP	2,439.24	05/28	03/31
Forest Laboratories Inc.	FRX	7,825.85	05/28	03/31
GT Solar International Inc	SOLR	785.23	05/28	03/31
Immunomedics Inc	IMMU	261.79	05/28	03/31
InterDigital Inc	IDCC	1,146.02	05/28	03/31
Lorillard Inc	LO	10,937.97	05/28	03/31
Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp	MRX	1,349.98	05/28	03/31
Net 1 Ueps Technologies Inc	UEPS	649.81	05/28	03/31
Oshkosh Corp	OSK	3,186.15	05/28	03/31
PDL BioPharma Inc	PDLI	641.85	05/28	03/31
Pre-Paid Legal Services Inc.	PPD	463.80	05/28	03/31
Providence Service Corp (The)	PRSC	211.71	05/28	03/31
Santarus Inc	SNTS	168.74	05/28	03/31
Sharps Compliance Corp	SMED	81.83	05/28	03/31
Synta Pharmaceuticals Corp	SNTA	126.71	05/28	03/31
TeleNav Inc	TNAV	97.24	05/28	03/31

When I look at the S-1, I see that there are now 41,000,000 shares outstanding:

		Shares purchased				Total consideration					Average price per share
		Number		Percent		Amount			Percent
Existing stockholders		35,484,062		87%		$	49,703,408		49%		$	1.40
New investors		5,500,000		13			52,250,000		51			9.50
Total		40,984,062		100%		$	101,953,408		100%		$	2.49

Clearly at $8.50 per share, you blow past the $97m market cap shown above. I get about 349m. That being said, I think the stock looks interesting. They provide location based services for cell phones, including voice guided navigation. The big risks include the fact that a lot of their revenues are with just a couple companies (think AT&T) and they are competing against companies like Google that may give it away for free. So there does not seem to be much of a "moat".

They have been growing nicely as people's acceptance of smartphones grows. I think I will buy them, I tend to over analyze and obsess over the risks. I will likely also buy FLL and these will be my two new stocks to replace ENDP, PFE and FRX which roll over at the end of this week. Here are my stats on TNAV and FLL:

		fll	tnav
+	Operating Income After Depreciation	11.16	64.27
-	Minority Interest - Income Account	3.49	-
=	Income for Calculation	7.67	64.27
	Diluted Shares Outstanding	18.002	41.083
	Share Price	3.09	8.50
+	Market Cap Calc	55.63	349.21
+	Preferred Capital	-	56.01
+	Debt in Current Liabilities	-	-
+	Long-Term Debt	-	-
	Cash and Short-Term Investments	12.32	46.11
-	Excess Cash	12.32	46.11
=	Enterprise Value	43.31	359.10
+	Property Plant and Equipment - Net	8.03	9.46
+	Receivables	3.32	38.57
+	Inventories	-	-
+	Other Current Assests	0.69	7.66
+	Working Cash	-	-
-	Accounts Payable	0.39	2.83
-	Current Liabilities - Other	0.90	14.62
=	Invested Capital	10.75	38.25
	Earnings Yield	18%	18%
	ROIC	71%	168%

Portfolio Update May 30th 2010

Quick update on my holdings and graphs. Here is the graph, sadly I am back below the break-even line.



Then here are my current holdings, I will sell WILC on Tuesday.

Purchase Date	Symbol	Initial Price	Current Price	Avg of Gain	Avg of IWV Gain
5/29/2009	UTA	$7.90	$8.36	5.8%	21.7%
	WILC	$2.12	$5.88	177.4%	21.7%
6/9/2009	CHCG	$1.12	$0.37	-66.9%	18.7%
	FRX	$23.10	$25.88	12.0%	18.7%
	PFE	$14.13	$15.23	12.6%	18.7%
6/12/2009	ENDP	$16.72	$20.94	25.2%	18.1%
7/21/2009	TTT	$8.92	$11.48	28.8%	17.0%
7/27/2009	GIGM	$5.02	$2.52	-49.8%	13.5%
	RTN	$45.61	$52.41	17.1%	13.5%
7/30/2009	BIOC	$3.70	$4.54	22.7%	13.1%
	BR	$16.53	$19.12	18.2%	13.1%
	CBI	$13.62	$19.87	45.9%	13.1%
8/14/2009	BKE	$26.66	$35.55	42.3%	10.7%
8/18/2009	PVSW	$4.96	$4.82	-2.8%	12.4%
8/26/2009	CEU	$5.40	$4.30	-20.4%	8.1%
8/27/2009	GTLS	$19.50	$18.42	-5.5%	8.0%
9/8/2009	AMED	$35.86	$49.72	38.7%	8.3%
9/21/2009	WTW	$26.00	$27.42	7.5%	3.8%
9/22/2009	QCOR	$5.42	$9.47	74.7%	3.1%
9/28/2009	TTT	$10.28	$11.48	11.7%	4.2%
9/30/2009	JCOM	$23.00	$23.14	0.6%	4.7%
	PRIM	$7.30	$6.85	-5.5%	4.7%
10/2/2009	KSW	$3.60	$3.29	-5.8%	8.0%
10/14/2009	LIWA	$7.39	$9.02	22.1%	1.2%
10/22/2009	AGX	$12.31	$10.77	-12.5%	1.4%
10/30/2009	CMFO	$4.30	$5.93	37.9%	7.5%
	RGR	$10.59	$15.74	51.0%	7.5%
11/3/2009	ESI	$93.61	$100.94	7.8%	6.4%
11/17/2009	IDCC	$23.62	$26.10	10.5%	0.1%
11/20/2009	QKLS	$5.75	$5.21	-9.4%	1.9%
12/2/2009	TSRA	$23.92	$17.38	-27.3%	0.2%
12/4/2009	CBPO	$9.15	$12.89	40.9%	0.4%
12/18/2009	CF	$89.45	$68.59	-23.3%	0.4%
12/21/2009	CYTK	$2.59	$2.94	13.5%	0.4%
1/5/2010	VALV	$5.31	$8.78	65.3%	-1.7%
1/14/2010	TRMS	$2.46	$2.26	-8.1%	-3.6%
1/20/2010	RAI	$53.55	$52.14	-1.0%	-3.6%
1/29/2010	GXDX	$31.69	$26.66	-15.9%	1.4%
2/5/2010	UIS	$34.07	$23.20	-31.9%	4.8%
2/23/2010	CSKI	$15.45	$12.66	-18.0%	0.6%
2/27/2010	TNDM	$15.31	$13.44	-12.2%	1.3%
3/1/2010	UIS	$35.22	$23.20	-34.1%	-0.8%
3/8/2010	DNB	$69.93	$72.99	4.4%	-3.7%
3/12/2010	KSW	$3.90	$3.29	-13.1%	-4.8%
	PRSC	$14.35	$16.39	14.2%	-4.8%
3/18/2010	KSW	$3.65	$3.29	-7.1%	-4.9%
4/12/2010	NEWN	$8.20	$7.13	-13.0%	-8.0%
4/21/2010	CCME	$12.57	$13.25	5.4%	-9.3%
4/30/2010	OSK	$39.33	$35.53	-9.7%	-9.0%
5/10/2010	SOHU	$45.94	$44.20	-3.8%	-4.8%
5/20/2010	CHKE	$19.11	$20.49	9.2%	0.8%
	IPXL	$19.23	$21.08	9.6%	2.0%
5/24/2010	MRX	$22.64	$23.19	2.4%	1.4%
	UEPS	$13.70	$14.32	4.5%	2.0%
Grand Total		$19.90	$20.26	8.2%	4.8%
Actual Totals (adj as all purchase not equal $)				5.8%	3.5%
Mechanical				7.4%	5.6%

Note the "mechanical" is a subset of my larger portfolio. Have a good holiday weekend everyone.

Uodate of Mechanical Stocks - May 29th

Here is how my mechanical stock portfolio has performed. This is not a real $ portfolio, but a test to see how well it works, that is buying stocks that are new to screens in past 52 weeks.

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
AAV	5/15/09	3.41	6.48	-	88.71	2.10	90.0%	30.7%	59.3%
AMED	5/29/09	30.43	49.72	-	92.53	2.10	63.4%	20.5%	42.9%
UTA	5/29/09	7.90	8.36	-	92.53	2.10	5.8%	20.5%	-14.6%
PFE	6/5/09	14.51	15.23	0.50	94.55	2.10	8.4%	17.9%	-9.5%
VM	6/5/09	4.55	5.50	-	94.55	2.10	20.9%	17.9%	3.0%
ONTY	6/11/09	2.60	3.49	-	95.08	2.10	34.2%	17.2%	17.0%
BPI	6/19/09	16.74	21.57	-	92.04	1.58	28.9%	20.5%	8.3%
GME	6/19/09	22.95	22.79	-	92.04	1.58	-0.7%	20.5%	-21.2%
SHAW	7/10/09	23.69	34.11	-	87.96	1.58	44.0%	26.1%	17.9%
RTN	7/24/09	45.39	52.41	1.00	98.06	1.58	17.7%	13.1%	4.5%
CBZ	7/31/09	6.54	6.60	-	98.81	1.58	0.9%	12.3%	-11.4%
CBI	7/31/09	13.95	19.87	-	98.81	1.58	42.4%	12.3%	30.2%
DRC	7/31/09	29.11	31.83	-	98.81	1.58	9.3%	12.3%	-2.9%
JEC	7/31/09	40.98	41.76	-	98.81	1.58	1.9%	12.3%	-10.4%
NPSP	7/31/09	3.89	6.59	-	98.81	1.58	69.4%	12.3%	57.1%
ASGN	7/31/09	4.23	5.53	-	98.81	1.58	30.7%	12.3%	18.5%
AGX	8/7/09	12.35	10.77	-	98.81	1.58	-12.8%	12.3%	-25.1%
BBND	8/7/09	4.00	2.85	-	98.81	1.58	-28.8%	12.3%	-41.0%
LHCG	8/7/09	24.55	30.80	-	98.81	1.58	25.5%	12.3%	13.2%
RGR	8/7/09	11.45	15.74	0.28	98.81	1.58	39.9%	12.3%	27.6%
PRIM	8/7/09	6.95	6.85	0.08	100.79	1.58	-0.4%	10.1%	-10.4%
SEPR	8/7/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	1.58	26.9%	10.1%	16.9%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	4.30	-	102.96	1.58	-15.7%	7.8%	-23.4%
CYTK	8/21/09	3.04	2.94	-	102.96	1.58	-3.3%	7.8%	-11.0%
CMFO	8/28/09	4.55	5.93	-	102.96	1.58	30.3%	7.8%	22.6%
NAVR	9/4/09	1.79	1.96	-	102.60	1.58	9.5%	8.1%	1.4%
WTW	9/11/09	26.00	27.42	0.53	104.77	1.58	7.5%	5.9%	1.6%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	4.95	-	106.72	1.58	33.1%	4.0%	29.1%
ESI	10/30/09	90.35	100.94	-	103.56	1.07	11.7%	6.6%	5.1%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	30.25	-	103.56	1.07	10.3%	6.6%	3.6%
APOL	11/6/09	55.99	53.16	-	107.13	1.07	-5.1%	3.1%	-8.1%
CBST	11/6/09	17.60	21.50	-	107.13	1.07	22.2%	3.1%	19.1%
SNTA	11/6/09	3.20	3.13	-	107.13	1.07	-2.2%	3.1%	-5.3%
IMMU	11/6/09	3.61	3.48	-	107.13	1.07	-3.6%	3.1%	-6.7%
PBH	11/13/09	6.95	7.72	-	109.62	1.07	11.1%	0.7%	10.3%
IDCC	11/20/09	23.56	26.10	-	109.43	1.07	10.8%	0.9%	9.9%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	5.37	0.50	109.57	1.07	-11.5%	0.8%	-12.3%
CBPO	12/4/09	9.06	12.89	-	111.01	1.07	42.3%	-0.5%	42.8%
XOMA	12/4/09	0.72	0.44	-	111.01	1.07	-38.7%	-0.5%	-38.2%
Valv	12/31/09	5.15	8.78	-	111.44	0.48	70.5%	-1.4%	71.9%
RAI	1/15/10	53.81	52.14	0.90	113.64	0.48	-1.4%	-3.3%	1.9%
TRMS	1/15/10	2.45	2.26	-	113.64	0.48	-7.8%	-3.3%	-4.4%
SAI	1/15/10	18.90	17.19	-	113.64	0.48	-9.0%	-3.3%	-5.7%
NATH	1/28/10	14.70	14.70	-	108.57	0.48	0.0%	1.2%	-1.2%
SMED	2/5/10	6.74	5.60	-	106.66	0.48	-16.9%	3.0%	-19.9%
SPMD	2/5/10	36.63	30.13	-	106.66	0.48	-17.7%	3.0%	-20.7%
UIS	2/5/10	34.25	23.20	-	106.66	0.48	-32.3%	3.0%	-35.3%
QKLS	2/12/10	5.69	5.21	-	108.04	0.48	-8.4%	1.7%	-10.1%
MGIC	2/12/10	1.78	2.24	-	108.04	0.48	25.8%	1.7%	24.2%
ESIC	2/19/10	2.07	2.54	-	111.14	0.48	22.7%	-1.2%	23.9%
ODSY	2/19/10	17.89	26.56	-	111.14	0.48	48.5%	-1.2%	49.6%
HRB	2/26/10	17.28	16.08	0.15	110.74	0.48	-6.1%	-0.8%	-5.3%
TNDM	2/26/10	16.12	13.44	-	110.74	0.48	-16.6%	-0.8%	-15.8%
DEXO	2/26/10	29.80	20.48	-	110.74	0.48	-31.3%	-0.8%	-30.5%
AFAM	3/5/10	35.52	36.37	-	114.25	0.48	2.4%	-3.9%	6.2%
DNB	3/5/10	69.95	72.99	-	114.25	0.48	4.3%	-3.9%	8.2%
SNTS	3/5/10	4.87	2.89	-	114.25	0.48	-40.7%	-3.9%	-36.8%
KIRK	3/12/10	20.11	21.52	-	115.46	0.48	7.0%	-4.9%	11.9%
PRSC	3/12/10	14.18	16.39	-	115.46	0.48	15.6%	-4.9%	20.4%
QDEL	3/25/10	13.73	11.70	-	116.58	-	-14.8%	-6.2%	-8.6%
SVA	4/9/10	5.83	4.04	-	119.55	-	-30.7%	-8.5%	-22.2%
VALU	4/9/10	22.07	19.80	3.00	119.55	-	3.3%	-8.5%	11.8%
BDSI	4/16/10	4.12	2.91	-	119.36	-	-29.4%	-8.4%	-21.0%
LOV	4/23/10	3.45	3.47	-	121.81	-	0.6%	-10.2%	10.8%
MD	4/23/10	57.02	56.55	-	121.81	-	-0.8%	-10.2%	9.4%
ABC	4/23/10	31.13	31.28	-	121.81	-	0.5%	-10.2%	10.7%
SNDK	4/30/10	39.84	46.62	-	121.81	-	17.0%	-10.2%	27.2%
OSK	4/30/10	38.62	35.53	-	121.81	-	-8.0%	-10.2%	2.2%
GXDX	5/7/10	27.89	26.66	-	111.26	-	-4.4%	-1.7%	-2.7%
IPXL	5/7/10	16.66	21.08	-	111.26	-	26.5%	-1.7%	28.2%
SOHU	5/7/10	44.19	44.20	-	111.26	-	0.0%	-1.7%	1.7%
CHOP	5/14/10	6.54	6.06	-	113.89	-	-7.3%	-4.0%	-3.4%
LIWA	5/14/10	8.24	9.02	-	113.89	-	9.5%	-4.0%	13.4%
FLL	5/14/10	3.10	3.09	-	113.89	-	-0.3%	-4.0%	3.6%
MRX	5/21/10	22.50	23.19	-	107.71	-	3.1%	1.5%	1.5%
						Top 50 Portfolio
						Totals	18.4%	0.7%	17.7%
54.6% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	22.6%	-0.6%	23.2%
S&P C			109.37			Open	8.0%	3.9%	4.1%