Happy New Year to any followers still out there. As you may have guessed, for the time being I have pretty much tossed in the towel on MFI. I mean it just isn't working very well.
At some point I may start again. I am old enough to remember 20 years ago when we had the dot com boom and everyone and their brother/sister was buying the "new" economy stocks and everyone was selling/bashing the "old"economy stocks. Then we had the dot com bust and value/old economy stocks were suddenly back in vogue.
It feels to me very similar today ("It's Different This Time" can be a very dangerous phrase) with the "disruptors" and social media stocks, many not having business models that make a dime being bid to the moon. So I have moved a large chunk of cash to the sidelines. If I see a crash in the "disruptors", I will start nibbling at value stocks again. But I at least owe my gentle readers a little tidy up on 2019.
2019 MFI Portfolios
While I largely sold my positions in May, I can certainly tell you how they would have done if I had held. As readers may recall, I had two components, MFI Select and MFI Formula. I'll show them in two ways: (1) assume I sold the stocks at the anniversary date and (2) assume I held stocks for all of 2019.
MFI Select
First, as a reminder,I had closed two MFI select tranches in 2019:
| 2/1/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.55 | $42.29 | $1.00 | -0.6% | -2.4% |
| CASA | $18.81 | $11.64 | $0.00 | -38.1% | -2.4% |
| KLAC | $109.80 | $106.57 | $2.84 | -0.4% | -2.4% |
| THO | $136.33 | $65.11 | $1.52 | -51.1% | -2.4% |
| WDC | $87.74 | $44.99 | $2.00 | -46.4% | -2.4% |
| Totals | -27.3% | -2.4% | |||
| 5/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CAAP | $12.19 | $7.61 | $0.00 | -37.6% | 12.1% |
| TGNA | $10.51 | $15.83 | $0.28 | 53.3% | 12.1% |
| DISCA | $23.85 | $30.89 | $0.00 | 29.5% | 12.1% |
| FTSI | $19.39 | $10.25 | $0.00 | -47.1% | 12.1% |
| ICHR | $21.96 | $25.04 | $0.00 | 14.0% | 12.1% |
| Totals | 2.4% | 12.1% |
Neither one was all that great.
Here are the open 4 tranches assuming I held them all year:
| 8/15/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $39.45 | $40.14 | $1.25 | 4.9% | 12.9% |
| AMCX | $60.97 | $39.50 | $0.00 | -35.2% | 12.9% |
| CJREF | $3.08 | $4.09 | $0.12 | 36.8% | 12.9% |
| GME | $15.50 | $6.08 | $1.14 | -53.4% | 12.9% |
| SGH | $31.12 | $37.94 | $0.00 | 21.9% | 12.9% |
| Totals | -5.0% | 12.9% | |||
| 11/15/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.15 | $40.14 | $1.00 | -4.7% | 19.8% |
| DXC | $62.00 | $37.59 | $0.38 | -38.8% | 19.8% |
| MU | $38.49 | $53.78 | $8.25 | 61.2% | 19.8% |
| SGH | $29.67 | $37.94 | $0.00 | 27.9% | 19.8% |
| WDC | $44.92 | $63.47 | $2.00 | 45.7% | 19.8% |
| Totals | 18.3% | 19.8% | |||
| 2/1/2019 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $42.18 | $40.14 | $0.75 | -3.1% | 18.7% |
| BBY | $58.84 | $87.80 | $0.50 | 50.1% | 18.7% |
| HPQ | $22.07 | $20.55 | $0.16 | -6.1% | 18.7% |
| MU | $38.22 | $53.78 | $0.00 | 40.7% | 18.7% |
| RTN | $166.65 | $181.41 | $0.94 | 9.4% | 18.7% |
| VIAB | $29.40 | $24.22 | $0.40 | -16.3% | 18.7% |
| WDC | $44.99 | $63.47 | $1.00 | 43.3% | 18.7% |
| Totals | 16.9% | 18.7% | |||
| 5/2/2019 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| FTSI | $10.25 | $1.04 | $0.00 | -89.9% | 10.2% |
| DXC | $64.74 | $37.59 | $0.38 | -41.4% | 10.2% |
| KHC | $31.84 | $32.13 | $0.80 | 3.4% | 10.2% |
| MO | $53.26 | $49.91 | $1.68 | -3.1% | 10.2% |
| EAF | $11.34 | $11.62 | $0.13 | 3.6% | 10.2% |
| TGNA | $15.83 | $14.77 | $0.14 | -5.8% | 10.2% |
| Totals | -22.2% | 10.2% |
Two absolute train wrecks with May and August. I've been a bit lazy on the dividends,so these aren't exactly right, but you get the gist. Then here are the two tranches assuming I had closed the first two in August and November:
| 8/15/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $39.45 | $39.33 | $1.25 | 2.9% | -5.7% |
| AMCX | $60.97 | $49.58 | $0.00 | -18.7% | -5.7% |
| CJREF | $3.08 | $3.73 | $0.12 | 25.1% | -5.7% |
| GME | $15.50 | $3.21 | $1.14 | -71.9% | -5.7% |
| SGH | $31.12 | $27.77 | $0.00 | -10.8% | -5.7% |
| Totals | -14.7% | -5.7% | |||
| 11/15/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AGX | $43.15 | $40.14 | $1.00 | -4.7% | 15.1% |
| DXC | $62.00 | $37.59 | $0.38 | -38.8% | 15.1% |
| MU | $38.49 | $53.78 | $8.25 | 61.2% | 15.1% |
| SGH | $29.67 | $37.94 | $0.00 | 27.9% | 15.1% |
| WDC | $44.92 | $63.47 | $2.00 | 45.7% | 15.1% |
| Totals | 18.3% | 15.1% |
Pretty much same story,one small win and a ten point loss.
MFI Formula
Same steps with MFI Formula tranches.First a reminder of how the two most recently closed tranches before I stopped blogging:
| 1/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $177.11 | $192.47 | $5.28 | 11.7% | -7.2% |
| GME | $18.06 | $12.56 | $1.52 | -22.0% | -7.2% |
| GILD | $71.64 | $62.01 | $2.28 | -10.3% | -7.2% |
| HRB | $26.34 | $25.05 | $0.99 | -1.1% | -7.2% |
| OMC | $72.81 | $72.74 | $1.80 | 2.4% | -7.2% |
| Totals | -3.9% | -7.2% | |||
| 4/3/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AMGN | $166.46 | $189.90 | $5.28 | 17.3% | 10.6% |
| VIAB | $29.20 | $28.07 | $0.80 | -1.1% | 10.6% |
| GILD | $72.71 | $65.01 | $2.34 | -7.4% | 10.6% |
| TUP | $47.32 | $25.58 | $2.31 | -41.1% | 10.6% |
| EGOV | $13.29 | $17.09 | $0.32 | 31.0% | 10.6% |
| Totals | -0.3% | 10.6% |
Then here are the 4 open tranches at that time assuming I held all through 2019:
| 7/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.90 | $4.09 | $0.31 | 12.8% | 18.2% |
| GILD | $70.80 | $64.98 | $1.77 | -5.7% | 18.2% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $23.10 | $0.66 | 4.2% | 18.2% |
| KLAC | $102.03 | $178.17 | $3.00 | 77.6% | 18.2% |
| TUP | $40.09 | $8.58 | $2.17 | -73.2% | 18.2% |
| Totals | 3.1% | 18.2% | |||
| 10/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.36 | $4.09 | $0.12 | 25.3% | 10.3% |
| GILD | $78.13 | $64.98 | $1.20 | -15.3% | 10.3% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $23.10 | $0.45 | 3.3% | 10.3% |
| PETS | $31.56 | $23.52 | $1.35 | -21.2% | 10.3% |
| VIAB | $32.21 | $24.22 | $0.40 | -23.6% | 10.3% |
| Totals | -6.3% | 10.3% | |||
| 1/2/2019 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| EGOV | $12.54 | $22.35 | $0.08 | 78.9% | 30.3% |
| GILD | $62.01 | $64.98 | $0.63 | 5.8% | 30.3% |
| IPG | $20.50 | $23.10 | $0.24 | 13.8% | 30.3% |
| KLAC | $90.04 | $178.17 | $1.50 | 99.5% | 30.3% |
| OMC | $72.74 | $81.02 | $0.65 | 12.3% | 30.3% |
| Totals | 42.1% | 30.3% | |||
| 4/1/2019 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VIAB | $28.90 | $24.22 | $0.20 | -15.5% | 11.9% |
| DLX | $44.50 | $49.92 | $0.60 | 13.5% | 11.9% |
| HRB | $24.31 | $23.48 | $0.00 | -3.4% | 11.9% |
| GILD | $66.00 | $64.98 | $0.00 | -1.5% | 11.9% |
| KLAC | $122.10 | $178.17 | $0.75 | 46.5% | 11.9% |
| Totals | 7.9% | 11.9% |
Again, I'm lazy with dividends (both for Russell 3000 and my stocks), but directionally it makes little difference. Three of the four tranches were losers. Overall lost by an average of 6 points.
Then here are tranches if I had closed them on schedule (again only show first two as newest two would still be open):
| 7/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.90 | $4.70 | $0.31 | 28.5% | 7.7% |
| GILD | $70.80 | $68.84 | $1.77 | -0.3% | 7.7% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $23.20 | $0.66 | 4.6% | 7.7% |
| KLAC | $102.03 | $119.63 | $3.00 | 20.2% | 7.7% |
| TUP | $40.09 | $18.42 | $2.17 | -48.6% | 7.7% |
| Totals | 0.9% | 7.7% | |||
| 10/2/2018 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CJREF | $3.36 | $3.97 | $0.12 | 21.7% | -2.1% |
| GILD | $78.13 | $61.62 | $1.20 | -19.6% | -2.1% |
| IPG | $22.80 | $20.52 | $0.45 | -8.0% | -2.1% |
| PETS | $31.56 | $18.09 | $1.35 | -38.4% | -2.1% |
| VIAB | $32.21 | $23.01 | $0.40 | -27.3% | -2.1% |
| Totals | -14.3% | -2.1% |
Yeah, I know. Doesn't change much. Too many stinkers (stocks down by 30% or more... what MFI Formula was trying to weed out).
Baker's Dirty Dozen
To continue my tidy-up, I did post last December a listing of 13 stocks that (many MFI) that I felt were super cheap. Here is how they did for a year (I closed them December 17th as I was going on vacation):
| Stock | Start | Current | Dividend | Gain/Loss |
| AMAT | 30.31 | 61.61 | 0.84 | 106.0% |
| AMCX | 52.23 | 38.89 | - | -25.5% |
| DLX | 37.11 | 50.09 | 1.20 | 38.2% |
| DXC | 50.48 | 37.50 | 0.76 | -24.2% |
| ECA | 5.38 | 4.43 | 0.08 | -16.2% |
| GLNG | 21.72 | 13.54 | 0.30 | -36.3% |
| KLAC | 85.67 | 176.07 | 3.05 | 109.1% |
| LRCX | 127.16 | 295.58 | 2.20 | 134.2% |
| MU | 30.32 | 55.27 | - | 82.3% |
| SGH | 28.75 | 35.88 | - | 24.8% |
| T | 28.31 | 38.99 | 2.04 | 44.9% |
| TGP | 11.82 | 15.79 | 0.66 | 39.2% |
| WDC | 35.90 | 59.87 | 2.00 | 72.3% |
| Total | 42.2% |
So they were great, up by 42% on average. When I closed it, I did start a new Baker's Dirty Dozen. It is off to a good start:
| Ticker | 12/17/2019 | Current | YTD Change | Dividend |
| MO | 50.88 | 49.72 | -0.6% | 0.84 |
| AXS | 60.52 | 59.44 | -1.1% | 0.44 |
| MPLX | 25.48 | 25.41 | -0.3% | - |
| CPLP | 12.03 | 13.46 | 11.9% | - |
| MAC | 25.91 | 26.92 | 3.9% | - |
| CHL | 39.89 | 42.28 | 6.0% | - |
| CSCO | 46.40 | 47.83 | 3.1% | - |
| OXY | 38.34 | 40.82 | 6.5% | - |
| HT | 14.19 | 14.63 | 3.1% | - |
| HI | 33.25 | 33.51 | 0.8% | - |
| NTR | 48.53 | 47.82 | -0.5% | 0.45 |
| AROC | 9.38 | 9.94 | 5.9% | - |
| ECA | 4.45 | 4.69 | 5.4% | - |
| 3.4% |
12/31/19 MFI Tracking Portfolio
My readers may recall I also have had MFI tracking portfolios (50 stocks over $$100m) that I have been tracking since 2006. Here is how the December 31st 2019 portfolio fared:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | Mkt Cap |
| VEC | 21.58 | 51.26 | 137.5% | 243 |
| LRCX | 133.31 | 292.40 | 119.3% | 21,848 |
| KLAC | 87.34 | 178.17 | 104.0% | 13,699 |
| AMAT | 32.15 | 61.04 | 89.9% | 31,594 |
| EGOV | 12.27 | 22.35 | 82.2% | 818 |
| WDC | 35.83 | 63.47 | 77.1% | 10,684 |
| CELG | 64.09 | 110.02 | 71.7% | 44,793 |
| AEIS | 42.93 | 71.20 | 65.9% | 1,662 |
| STX | 36.70 | 59.50 | 62.1% | 11,042 |
| CECO | 11.42 | 18.39 | 61.0% | 797 |
| AKG | 0.64 | 0.95 | 48.4% | 144 |
| SP | 29.54 | 42.43 | 43.6% | 662 |
| DLX | 37.45 | 49.92 | 33.3% | 1,780 |
| STRL | 10.89 | 14.08 | 29.3% | 295 |
| CJREF | 3.32 | 4.09 | 23.0% | 742 |
| IPG | 19.75 | 23.10 | 17.0% | 7,929 |
| IDT | 6.19 | 7.21 | 16.5% | 147 |
| OMC | 70.84 | 81.02 | 14.4% | 16,464 |
| MSB | 20.95 | 23.54 | 12.3% | 311 |
| ALSN | 43.34 | 48.32 | 11.5% | 5,692 |
| AGX | 36.96 | 40.14 | 8.6% | 589 |
| GILD | 60.23 | 64.98 | 7.9% | 81,065 |
| PETS | 22.08 | 23.52 | 6.5% | 481 |
| HSII | 30.62 | 32.50 | 6.1% | 591 |
| EAF | 11.13 | 11.62 | 4.4% | 3,324 |
| HPQ | 19.78 | 20.55 | 3.9% | 31,836 |
| UIS | 11.63 | 11.86 | 2.0% | 593 |
| ESIO | 29.96 | 30.00 | 0.1% | 1,040 |
| HRB | 24.34 | 23.48 | -3.5% | 5,214 |
| VIAB | 25.15 | 24.22 | -3.7% | 10,360 |
| MCFT | 18.70 | 15.75 | -15.8% | 350 |
| IDCC | 64.95 | 54.49 | -16.1% | 2,302 |
| IMMR | 8.96 | 7.43 | -17.1% | 276 |
| TVTY | 24.81 | 20.35 | -18.0% | 994 |
| INVA | 17.45 | 14.16 | -18.9% | 1,979 |
| UTHR | 108.90 | 88.08 | -19.1% | 5,122 |
| MSGN | 23.56 | 17.40 | -26.1% | 1,763 |
| DXC | 52.14 | 37.59 | -27.9% | 14,956 |
| HEAR | 14.27 | 9.45 | -33.8% | 203 |
| NKTR | 32.87 | 21.59 | -34.3% | 5,688 |
| SIGA | 7.90 | 4.77 | -39.6% | 635 |
| GME | 12.21 | 6.08 | -50.2% | 1,290 |
| LTRPA | 15.89 | 7.35 | -53.7% | 1,193 |
| LGORF | 2.07 | 0.77 | -62.8% | 1,084 |
| BPT | 19.01 | 6.88 | -63.8% | 463 |
| NHTC | 17.15 | 5.38 | -68.6% | 210 |
| TUP | 30.31 | 8.58 | -71.7% | 1,534 |
| FTSI | 7.11 | 1.04 | -85.4% | 777 |
| ACOR | 15.58 | 2.04 | -86.9% | 735 |
| TUSK | 17.73 | 2.20 | -87.6% | 805 |
I always preached how you have to minimize the number of stinkers (stocks dropping 30% or more). Historically it is about 14% of all MFI stocks. Here it is a putrid 24%... in a year where the Russell 3000 was up over 30%! So MFI tracking was trounced 5% to 31%.
The three other portfolios I started for tracking in 2019 are also trailing by 15 points plus. It is like MFI is working in reverse, which is why I commented this feels like 1999-2000 when money was flowing away from old economy stocks into sexy dot coms.
Large Caps
I also did some modest tracking of large cap (over $3b) MFI stocks in 2019. Pretty similar story.
So on average up 11%, but benchmark up over 20%. Let's look at one more.
March 1st:
So on average +7%. While the Russell 3000 was up 16%. I know, frustrating. I think irregardless of how you slice it 2019 was poor for MFI(GARIX, a MFI mutual fund was up about 12%, again vs an index up 30%).
MFI Diary Motley Fool
I also started in 2019 a CAPS portfolio called MFI Diary on Motley Fool that randomly picks about 7 stocks once a quarter. You can see the results here, not so hot:
Going Forward
I will set up two tracking portfolios for 2020 and perhaps follow up a few times here. Have a great year everyone!
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