Saturday, December 01, 2018

MFI Diary Monthly Update - November 2018

MFI Diary Monthly Update - November 2018

Wow, was November a terrible month for me.  Maybe my worst ever relative to the overall market.  MFI was actually fine, but my concentrated plays in energy and shipping were absolute disasters.  Those are volatile sectors and I was whipsawed.

I am a bit depressed about it and may not even publish the tables as too hard for me to even look at.  I have not sold anything - so if trade war concerns die down and the oversold condition that is oil today gets corrected, i am cautiously optimistic I'll get some of losses back in December.

Welcome to the occasionally amusing MFI Diary.  This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "experiences" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets".  I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.

I did create a guide for new readers to my blog that point you to some fascinating/interesting
posts. I encourage you to give it a whirl (Guide To New Readers).  (PS - I continue to struggle to make this link work.  You can instead go to Blog archive on left margin of this blog and you will find a link in October 2017). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a non-economist, non-CFA with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor (pretty clear as I am trailing benchmarks in total).  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

November

As I noted in opening paragraph, I was definitely punched in the face in November.  Here is a table showing gains/losses by portfolio:


 Component   YTD   2nd Half   Month Change 
 Overall  -8.4% -12.0% -4.4%
 MFI Select  -6.1% -0.7% +1.3%
 MFI Formula  +9.8% +3.6% +2.2%
 MFI Combined  +1.5% +1.4% +1.7%
 Non MFI  -13.8% -13.0% -7.7%
 Dividend Index  +0.2% +2.4% +1.5%
 R3K Index  +4.1% +1.1% +2.0%
 Blended Index  +2.7% +1.6% +1.8%
 MFI Index  +11.4% -1.5% +0.1%
 GARIX  -0.3% +1.1% +1.2%


So overall I am now down 8.4% for 2018.  But that is all from my non-MFI, which is down 13.8% for the year and dropped 7.7% is the disaster that was November.  MFI portfolios are hanging in there.

My two real money MFI portfolios (Select and Formula) are up a composite 1.5% in 2018.  But all the lifting is being done by MFI Formula ( a snappy +9.8%) while mfI Select is down 6.1%.

The MFI Index (which I created and has 50 stocks from MFI screen) is up 11.4% on the year (very good)... but not real money for me as just an index. And GARIX, an MFI mutual fund, is basically flat for 2018.

Finally, my other benchmarks, R3K (Russell 3000) is up 4.1% in 2018 and Dividend Index (40 income holdings published by Barron's) is up 0.2%.

Tables

Here is a table of the dividend index:


 Ticker  12/30/2017  Current   Dividend   YTD Change   Monthly Change   Yield 
 AMLP                10.79             9.55               0.82 -3.9% -2.7% 8.51%
 NML                  9.38             7.53               0.61 -13.3% -0.5% 8.76%
 EPD                26.51          26.25               1.68 5.4% -2.1% 6.55%
 ET                14.00          14.57               2.26 20.2% -6.2% 8.35%
 FDD                13.73          12.58               0.44 -5.2% 1.1% 4.06%
 VGK                59.15          51.43               1.13 -11.1% -0.7% 3.74%
 DDAIF                84.57          56.46               3.25 -29.4% -4.5% 7.96%
 NVS                83.96          91.53               2.75 12.3% 4.7% 3.25%
 NOBL                64.04          66.22               1.00 5.0% 4.8% 2.10%
 VYM                85.63          86.22               1.86 2.9% 3.6% 2.96%
 MRK                56.27          79.34               1.44 43.6% 7.8% 2.43%
 PEP              119.92        121.94               3.22 4.4% 8.5% 2.85%
 VNQ                82.98          81.95               2.93 2.3% 4.6% 4.69%
 RQI                12.65          11.85               0.88 0.6% 5.1% 7.90%
 TCO                65.43          52.94               1.88 -16.2% -3.8% 4.89%
 SLG              100.93          96.42               2.33 -2.2% 5.7% 3.36%
 T                38.88          31.24               1.96 -14.6% 1.8% 6.41%
 VZ                52.93          60.30               2.24 18.2% 5.6% 3.92%
 CHL                50.54          49.74               1.60 1.6% 6.9% 4.37%
 DTEGY                17.66          17.52               0.68 3.1% 7.2% 4.38%
 DSU                11.70          10.38               0.76 -4.8% -2.4% 7.94%
 HIO                  5.07             4.53               0.32 -4.4% -0.2% 7.09%
 MUB              110.74        108.04               2.52 -0.2% 0.9% 2.42%
 PRHYX                  6.76             6.31               0.33 -1.8% -1.4% 5.40%
 NEA                13.75          12.43               0.66 -4.8% 2.5% 5.39%
 JNK                36.72          34.73               1.98 0.0% -1.2% 5.68%
 VWITX                14.13          13.78               0.37 0.2% 0.7% 2.80%
 PHMIX                  9.09             8.87               0.38 1.8% -0.2% 2.80%
 UTG                30.94          31.35               1.76 7.0% 3.3% 4.20%
 XLU                52.65          55.58               1.26 8.0% 3.5% 3.26%
 DUK                84.11          88.57               3.56 9.5% 7.2% 4.10%
 EIX                63.24          55.32               1.63 -9.9% -20.3% 4.38%
 PFF                38.07          35.18               2.16 -1.9% -2.7% 5.80%
 JPC                10.34             8.98               0.72 -6.2% -0.7% 8.42%
 WFC-PL          1,309.99    1,263.75             56.25 0.8% -0.6% 5.80%
 TIP              114.08        109.27               2.52 -2.0% 0.4% 3.28%
 SHY                83.85          83.25               0.95 0.4% 0.2% 1.62%
 TLT              126.86        115.33               3.06 -6.7% 1.5% 2.74%
 Totals                       -                    -                      -   0.2% 1.0% 4.86%

So you can see utilities (UTG, XLU and DUK) are doing well.  "Safe" treasuries (TLT) are down 6.7% in 2018.  Verizon has kicked AT&T's butt (though I am now long T).  Daimler Chrysler, down 29% is actually the worst security on here... been tough year in Auto business.

Then here are 50 stocks in my MFI Index


 Stock   Start   Current   YTD Change   Last Month 
   AMAG        13.25             18.05 36.2% -16.0%
   AMCX        54.08             59.86 10.7% 2.2%
   ABC        91.82             90.04 -1.9% 1.0%
   AMGN      173.90           210.89 21.3% 7.9%
   AGX        45.00             44.22 -1.7% -1.2%
 BIVV        53.92           105.00 94.7% 0.0%
   HRB        26.22             27.75 5.8% 1.7%
   BPT        20.10             29.18 45.2% -18.1%
   ABCD          5.68             14.48 154.9% 0.7%
   CPLA        77.40           104.86 35.5% 0.0%
   CASA        17.76             15.55 -12.4% 8.0%
   CSCO        38.30             49.15 28.3% 4.5%
   CNCE        25.87             14.33 -44.6% -4.0%
   CJREF          9.21                4.34 -52.9% -1.2%
   DLX        76.84             51.25 -33.3% 6.5%
   DIN        50.73             91.07 79.5% 9.8%
   DISCA        22.38             30.72 37.3% -5.2%
   EGRX        53.42             50.40 -5.7% 2.4%
   EVC          7.15                3.38 -52.7% -33.6%
   ESRX        74.64           101.47 35.9% 4.6%
   GME        17.95             14.76 -17.8% -6.0%
   GILD        71.64             73.65 2.8% 5.4%
   HSII        24.55             37.05 50.9% 6.2%
   HPQ        21.01             23.40 11.4% -4.6%
   INVA        14.19             18.26 28.7% 30.8%
   IDCC        76.15             76.66 0.7% 6.0%
   IPG        20.16             24.13 19.7% 1.4%
   KLAC      105.07           100.65 -4.2% 7.5%
   LEE          2.35                2.24 -4.7% -16.1%
   MCFT        22.22             25.91 16.6% -12.7%
   MPAA        24.99             17.95 -28.2% -15.3%
   MSGN        20.25             26.78 32.2% 0.0%
   NHTC        15.19             21.77 43.3% -5.9%
   NLS        13.35             12.91 -3.3% 5.6%
   EGOV        16.60             13.24 -20.2% -2.3%
   OMC        72.83             78.77 8.2% 3.5%
   PTN          0.86                0.81 -5.8% -10.0%
   PDLI          2.74                3.07 12.0% 23.3%
   PCOA      575.00           690.00 20.0% 0.0%
   PBI        11.18                9.00 -19.5% 25.3%
   SRNE          3.80                3.46 -8.9% 8.5%
   SP        37.10             30.31 -18.3% -5.2%
   SYNT        22.99             41.00 78.3% 0.0%
   TGNA        14.08             13.50 -4.1% 14.9%
   MEET          2.82                4.03 42.9% -8.6%
   TVTY        36.55             40.96 12.1% 19.0%
   TPCO        17.59             14.59 -17.1% -3.3%
   UTHR      147.95           118.10 -20.2% 6.5%
   VEC        30.85             24.23 -21.5% -9.6%
   VIAB        30.81             31.46 2.1% -3.4%
 Total      21,371 11.4%

You'll note EVC got crushed (down 33%) this month.  That sucked as they were in my November 2017 MFI Select tranche that ended 11/15.  While 11.4% overall is terrific, you can see a lot of variability in individual stocks.  This is pretty typical.

Finally, here is a table showing MFI Index over the years:


 Annual   Inception to Date 
 Year   Russell   MFI   Russell ITD   MFI ITD 
2006 11.4% 15.0% 11.4% 15.0%
2007 4.1% -6.7% 16.0% 7.3%
2008 -37.0% -38.0% -27.0% -33.4%
2009 32.5% 45.2% -3.3% -3.3%
2010 18.4% 22.8% 14.5% 18.7%
2011 -0.6% -10.5% 13.9% 6.2%
2012 16.4% 9.7% 32.6% 16.6%
2013 33.0% 51.7% 76.3% 76.8%
2014 12.3% 12.1% 98.0% 98.1%
2015 0.4% -8.9% 98.7% 80.4%
2016 12.5% 13.2% 123.5% 104.2%
2017 20.8% 4.7% 170.1% 113.9%
2018 4.1% 11.4% 181.2% 138.2%

You can see it was pretty much a push through 2014, but MFI has lost a lot of ground in past 4 years as value investing in total has not been very successful.

MFI Select

As I mentioned, I have two real money MFI portfolios.  The first is MFI Select.  I started it in August 2012 and it consists of 4 tranches of 5 stocks per tranche.  I buy and hold each tranche for a year.  I had actually quit MFI in July 2011 out of frustration from poor personal results.  When I rebooted in August 2012, I had taken a long look at what worked and what didn't work.  The key (in my view) is to minimize the number of stinker stocks (those that drop by 30% or more in a year).  These are pretty prevalent in total, about 15% of MFI stocks over time have been stinkers.

Here are my 4 open tranches:


2/1/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.55 $43.47 $0.75 1.5% -0.9%
 CASA  $18.81 $15.55 $0.00 -17.3% -0.9%
 KLAC  $109.80 $98.56 $2.84 -7.7% -0.9%
 THO  $136.33 $67.81 $1.13 -49.4% -0.9%
 WDC  $87.74 $45.39 $1.50 -46.6% -0.9%
 Totals  -23.9% -0.9%
5/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CAAP  $12.19 $7.98 $0.00 -34.5% 5.2%
 TGNA  $10.51 $13.29 $0.14 27.8% 5.2%
 DISCA  $23.85 $30.72 $0.00 28.8% 5.2%
 FTSI  $19.39 $9.88 $0.00 -49.0% 5.2%
 ICHR  $21.96 $18.20 $0.00 -17.1% 5.2%
 Totals  -8.8% 5.2%
8/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $39.45 $43.47 $0.25 10.8% -3.2%
 AMCX  $60.97 $59.86 $0.00 -1.8% -3.2%
 CJREF  $3.08 $3.73 $0.00 21.2% -3.2%
 GME  $15.50 $13.66 $0.38 -9.4% -3.2%
 SGH  $31.12 $34.29 $0.00 10.2% -3.2%
 Totals  6.2% -3.2%
11/15/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.15 $43.47 $0.00 0.7% 2.6%
 DXC  $62.00 $63.04 $0.00 1.7% 2.6%
 MU  $38.49 $38.56 $0.00 0.2% 2.6%
 SGH  $29.67 $34.29 $0.00 15.6% 2.6%
 WDC  $44.92 $45.39 $0.00 1.0% 2.6%
 Totals  3.8% 2.6%

A quick look at these 4 tables shows my February and May picks are really struggling... largely due to 40% stinker rate (CAAP and THO were just bad picks).  But August and November both look promising so far.

The following table aggregates all tranches I have even had (back to August 2012):


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  6.2% 3.8% -23.9% -8.8% -6.6%
 Previous Tranche  27.8% -0.6% 74.9% -3.6% 43.9%
 Tranche -2  -0.1% 42.6% 10.7% 19.1% 18.1%
 Tranche -3  2.8% 8.0% -14.3% -25.2% -7.2%
 Tranche -4  11.2% 69.4% 8.5% 18.3% 26.8%
 Tranche -5  41.4% 14.2% 78.3% 33.0% 41.7%
 Tranche -6  14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.5%
 MFI Overall Gain  150.2% 342.3% 144.3% 23.2% 165.0%
 Current Balance         62,555           110,571           61,083        30,800         265,009
 R3K Current Tranche  -3.2% 2.6% -0.9% 5.2% 0.9%
 R3K Overall Gain  118.4% 123.8% 99.9% 87.1% 107.3%
 R3K Balance         54,589             55,962           49,974        46,771         207,297
 Annualized IRR  15.7% 27.9% 16.5% 3.8% 16.0%

In the "current tranche" row,you can see aggregated results for the 4 tranches I published above. You can also see (under MFI Overall gain) than I am up 165% since starting this in 2012, which works out (final row) to 16% per year.

Here is a table showing how a hypothetical $100,000 investing in MFI Select at the beginning would have grown quarter by quarter:


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
4/1/2018 96.21%        293,665            197,451
7/1/2018 68.20%        273,125            204,921
10/1/2018 65.80%        284,097            218,297
Current 57.71%        265,009            207,297

2018 has been a struggle,  but overall results are quite satisfactory.  Here is a table showing how stocks did in past month:


 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 AGX              44.02         43.47                       -   -1.2%
 SGH              28.01         34.29                       -   22.4%
 WDC              43.07         45.39                       -   5.4%
 DISCA              32.39         30.72                       -   -5.2%
 TGNA              11.54         13.29                       -   15.2%
 CJREF                3.78            3.73                       -   -1.3%
 KLAC              91.54         98.56                  0.75 8.5%
 DXC              62.00         63.04                       -   1.7%
 MU              38.49         38.56                       -   0.2%
 ICHR              17.75         18.20                       -   2.5%
 CASA              14.40         15.55                       -   8.0%
 AMCX              58.58         59.86                       -   2.2%
 GME              14.60         13.66                       -   -6.4%
 CAAP                7.93            7.98                       -   0.6%
 THO              69.64         67.81                       -   -2.6%
 FTSI              12.81            9.88                       -   -22.9%

FTSI has really been disappointing.  It dropped with my energy names in my non MFI portfolio.  At $9.88 it seems so so cheap. But glad I didn't add in mid-November.

MFI Formula

My 2nd MFI real money portfolio is MFI Formula.  While in MFI Select, I give myself free form in how I pick my stocks.... in MFI Formula I pick stocks via a formula and random number generator.  I started this portfolio in October 2014. So I am four years in.  Same tables.

1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $208.25 $5.28 20.6% 3.5%
 GME  $18.06 $13.66 $1.14 -18.0% 3.5%
 GILD  $71.64 $71.94 $1.71 2.8% 3.5%
 HRB  $26.34 $27.01 $0.74 5.4% 3.5%
 OMC  $72.81 $76.97 $1.80 8.2% 3.5%
 Totals  3.8% 3.5%
4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $208.25 $3.96 27.5% 7.0%
 VIAB  $29.20 $30.86 $0.40 7.1% 7.0%
 GILD  $72.71 $71.94 $1.14 0.5% 7.0%
 TUP  $47.32 $37.96 $1.36 -16.9% 7.0%
 EGOV  $13.29 $13.00 $0.16 -0.9% 7.0%
 Totals  3.4% 7.0%
7/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.90 $3.73 $0.19 0.5% 1.4%
 GILD  $70.80 $71.94 $0.57 2.4% 1.4%
 IPG  $22.80 $23.50 $0.21 4.0% 1.4%
 KLAC  $102.03 $98.56 $1.50 -1.9% 1.4%
 TUP  $40.09 $37.96 $0.68 -3.6% 1.4%
 Totals  0.3% 1.4%
10/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CJREF  $3.36 $3.73 $0.00 11.0% -5.6%
 GILD  $78.13 $71.94 $0.00 -7.9% -5.6%
 IPG  $22.80 $23.50 $0.00 3.1% -5.6%
 PETS  $31.56 $24.09 $0.27 -22.8% -5.6%
 VIAB  $32.21 $30.86 $0.00 -4.2% -5.6%
 Totals  -4.2% -5.6%

So pretty close.  I am leading 2 and trailing 2.  But unlike MFI Select, I have no stinkers here.  That is really what MFI formula implicitly tries to do.


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  -4.2% 3.8% 3.4% 0.3% 1.1%
 Previous Tranche  18.5% 16.5% 21.3% 37.3% 22.3%
 Tranche -2  7.0% 9.3% 25.2% 26.7% 17.0%
 Tranche -3  5.5% 11.0% -0.2% -12.5% 1.0%
 Tranche -4  0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
 MFI Overall Gain 28.2% 46.7% 56.7% 52.7% 46.1%
 Current Balance      320,333        366,557     392,017      381,401      1,460,308
 R3K Current Tranche  -5.6% 3.5% 7.0% 1.4% 1.6%
 R3K Overall Gain  48.7% 39.7% 38.6% 38.5% 41.4%
 R3K Balance      371,466        349,095     346,753      345,901      1,413,216
 Annualized IRR  6.1% 10.3% 13.0% 13.2% 10.6%

You can see overall up 46.1%, which annualizes to 10.6%. Very close with R3K, which is actually very good (recall the MFI Index from 2015 forward in table at very beginning of this blog has been beaten solidly by R3K).

Here is how $100,000 would have grown:


 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
4/1/2018 -0.16%        133,734            133,898
7/1/2018 2.28%        141,126            138,849
10/1/2018 -0.85%        147,963            148,808
Current 4.71%        146,031            141,320

All-in-all, pretty solid in today's environment.  The growth from 131.460 to 146,031 in 2018 is solid.

Here are how the stocks fared in past month:


 Stock   Last Month   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GILD              68.18         71.94                       -   5.5%
 AMGN            192.79       208.25                  1.32 8.7%
 VIAB              31.98         30.86                       -   -3.5%
 CJREF                3.78            3.73                       -   -1.3%
 IPG              23.16         23.50                  0.21 2.4%
 TUP              35.10         37.96                       -   8.1%
 OMC              74.32         76.97                       -   3.6%
 GME              14.60         13.66                       -   -6.4%
 EGOV              13.31         13.00                       -   -2.3%
 HRB              26.54         27.01                  0.26 2.8%
 KLAC              91.54         98.56                  0.75 8.5%
 PETS              27.94         24.09                       -   -13.8%

Not sure I understand why PETS is down so much.  I am ready to throw in towel on GME.

I think I will call it a wrap.  I just can't write right now about my shipping and energy plays. Maybe next month.

Thanks for reading.

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