Buy When Fearful Portfolio

Buy When Fearful Portfolio

I continue to track two portfolios that I have started that I call buy when fearful.  currently these do not involve real money.  The idea is simple and formula-based, to take out human bias.

You start with a list of stocks that you like and their prices at a point in time.  Then, whenever one drops 15% from their high (post that initial point of time), you buy a fixed dollar amount (I use $10,000 in my example).  Then if it drops 15% from that purchase price at any future date, you buy another slug.  I am thinking you hold each slug for a year.  So very simplistic.

The first one was based on a group of stocks from the start of 2018.  So it has had almost 1/2 a year to percolate.  The average slug is up over 10%, so it has done pretty well (Russell 3000 is up under 5%).

Date Purchased	Stock	Shares	Purchase Price	Current/Sold Price	Cost	Value	Dividends	Gain
04/23/18	AKRX	766	$13.05	$16.03	10,000	12,284	-	2,284
02/27/18	AKRX	536	$18.65	$16.03	10,000	8,595	-	(1,405)
03/23/18	AMID	1,025	$9.76	$10.10	10,000	10,348	420	768
02/09/18	AMID	859	$11.64	$10.10	10,000	8,677	352	(971)
03/18/18	BKE	538	$18.60	$28.10	10,000	15,108	134	5,242
02/07/18	BTG	3,610	$2.77	$2.61	10,000	9,422	-	(578)
02/05/18	CARS	373	$26.80	$28.76	10,000	10,731	-	731
06/18/18	CBWTF	12,346	$0.81	$0.96	10,000	11,852		1,852
05/30/18	CBWTF	10,309	$0.97	$0.96	10,000	9,897		(103)
02/26/18	CBWTF	8,547	$1.17	$0.96	10,000	8,205	-	(1,795)
02/02/18	CBWTF	6,993	$1.43	$0.96	10,000	6,713	-	(3,287)
01/11/18	CBWTF	5,814	$1.72	$0.96	10,000	5,581	-	(4,419)
05/22/18	CELG	134	$74.69	$78.80	10,000	10,550	-	550
02/08/18	CELG	110	$91.08	$78.80	10,000	8,652	-	(1,348)
05/18/18	CNNEF	3,106	$3.22	$3.17	10,000	9,845	-	(155)
03/16/18	DIN	176	$56.80	$80.86	10,000	14,236	-	4,236
04/10/18	EGC	2,439	$4.10	$9.04	10,000	22,049	-	12,049
02/06/18	EGC	1,786	$5.60	$9.04	10,000	16,143	-	6,143
03/27/18	EGO	11,905	$0.84	$1.11	10,000	13,214	-	3,214
03/20/18	EGO	9,709	$1.03	$1.11	10,000	10,777	-	777
02/02/18	EGO	8,197	$1.22	$1.11	10,000	9,098	-	(902)
05/10/18	EVC	2,439	$4.10	$5.05	10,000	12,317	-	2,317
03/15/18	EVC	1,969	$5.08	$5.05	10,000	9,941	98	39
03/13/18	EVC	1,603	$6.24	$5.05	10,000	8,093	80	(1,827)
02/07/18	EXK	4,566	$2.19	$3.21	10,000	14,658	-	4,658
02/06/18	FSM	2,222	$4.50	$5.71	10,000	12,689	-	2,689
01/30/18	GCAP	1,391	$7.19	$7.80	10,000	10,848	111	960
01/12/18	GCAP	1,119	$8.94	$7.80	10,000	8,725	89	(1,186)
03/23/18	GILD	137	$72.84	$71.07	10,000	9,757	-	(243)
03/21/18	GME	713	$14.02	$15.52	10,000	11,070	271	1,341
01/24/18	GME	603	$16.58	$15.52	10,000	9,361	458	(181)
03/14/18	GSS	15,385	$0.65	$0.66	10,000	10,154	-	154
02/07/18	GSS	12,987	$0.77	$0.66	10,000	8,571	-	(1,429)
02/08/18	HPQ	505	$19.80	$23.80	10,000	12,020	71	2,091
02/08/18	ICHR	454	$22.01	$22.20	10,000	10,086	-	86
02/02/18	ICHR	351	$28.50	$22.20	10,000	7,789	-	(2,211)
02/02/18	KL	703	$14.22	$20.29	10,000	14,269	-	4,269
02/20/18	KLDX	6,667	$1.50	$2.53	10,000	16,867	-	6,867
02/07/18	KLDX	5,650	$1.77	$2.53	10,000	14,294	-	4,294
01/10/18	KLDX	4,785	$2.09	$2.53	10,000	12,105	-	2,105
04/26/18	MD	215	$46.52	$44.97	10,000	9,667	-	(333)
05/03/18	MSGN	536	$18.65	$23.10	10,000	12,386	-	2,386
04/02/18	MSGN	455	$22.00	$23.10	10,000	10,500	-	500
04/15/18	MTG	952	$10.50	$11.23	10,000	10,695	-	695
03/12/18	MTG	801	$12.48	$11.23	10,000	8,998	-	(1,002)
03/22/18	NMM	5,495	$1.82	$1.99	10,000	10,934	110	1,044
01/29/18	NMM	4,651	$2.15	$1.99	10,000	9,256	93	(651)
03/02/18	NS	495	$20.22	$24.95	10,000	12,339	297	2,636
02/08/18	NS	407	$24.57	$24.95	10,000	10,155	244	399
01/30/18	NSU	4,878	$2.05	$3.32	10,000	16,195	-	6,195
02/08/18	O	213	$46.95	$53.78	10,000	11,455	141	1,595
03/23/18	OMC	142	$70.19	$75.91	10,000	10,815	-	815
02/23/18	OMER	1,046	$9.56	$18.67	10,000	19,529	-	9,529
02/14/18	OMER	889	$11.25	$18.67	10,000	16,596	-	6,596
02/07/18	OMER	695	$14.39	$18.67	10,000	12,974	-	2,974
01/17/18	OMER	581	$17.21	$18.67	10,000	10,848	-	848
03/20/18	PSXP	216	$46.34	$51.64	10,000	11,144	151	1,295
03/21/18	QCOM	176	$56.71	$58.50	10,000	10,316	123	439
02/12/18	RGR	208	$48.08	$57.65	10,000	11,990	67	2,057
02/12/18	ROSE	1,410	$7.09	$8.57	10,000	12,087	-	2,087
02/09/18	SAND	2,183	$4.58	$4.42	10,000	9,651	-	(349)
01/09/18	SELB	1,151	$8.69	$12.11	10,000	13,936	-	3,936
04/26/18	SGYP	6,250	$1.60	$1.89	10,000	11,812	-	1,812
02/05/18	SGYP	5,319	$1.88	$1.89	10,000	10,053	-	53
01/23/18	SGYP	4,464	$2.24	$1.89	10,000	8,437	-	(1,563)
01/19/18	SIMO	220	$45.47	$54.46	10,000	11,977	66	2,043
04/19/18	SLSDF	37,037	$0.27	$0.31	10,000	11,481	-	1,481
03/01/18	SLSDF	31,250	$0.32	$0.31	10,000	9,688	-	(312)
01/16/18	SLSDF	26,316	$0.38	$0.31	10,000	8,158	-	(1,842)
04/02/18	TGNA	917	$10.91	$11.24	10,000	10,302	64	367
02/08/18	TGNA	757	$13.21	$11.24	10,000	8,509	53	(1,438)
03/23/18	TGP	566	$17.66	$16.75	10,000	9,485	79	(436)
01/24/18	TK	1,208	$8.28	$8.01	10,000	9,674	133	(193)
02/01/18	TOO	4,219	$2.37	$2.60	10,000	10,970	84	1,055
03/20/18	TORXF	1,460	$6.85	$9.04	10,000	13,197		3,197
02/27/18	TORXF	1,241	$8.06	$9.04	10,000	11,216		1,216
02/05/18	TORXF	1,029	$9.72	$9.04	10,000	9,300		(700)
05/11/18	VIAB	348	$28.74	$30.28	10,000	10,536	70	605
02/27/18	WNC	459	$21.77	$19.76	10,000	9,077		(923)
06/19/18	FDEU	615	$16.25	$16.35	10,000	10,062		62

You see you can get the falling knife syndrome.  That caused 5 purchases of CBWTF (meaning stock has had 5 15% declines - it is a pot stock).  The first three are largely underwater, the 4th is breakeven and 5th is doing well.  OMER is similar and had 4 15% declines.  But it bounced back on some positive FDA news and all 4 tranches are nicely in the money.  Hmm, I guess I am surprised GME didn't trigger a third buy, the second was at $14.02... so 15% less than that is $11.91.  Ok, it never got quite that low (I show $12.20).

Then I thought perhaps this one was "lucky" as we had quite a drop in overall market between Jan 20th and mid/late Feb and market has since bounced back.  So I started a second one at start of May.  So it only has less than two months... I suspect some buys need more time to bounce back.  Average buy is down 1% and all the negative is driven by ANW, which has been a falling knife... but hopefully will get some good news when they file 20-F (I hold in RL).

Stock	Purchase Price	Current/Sold Price	Cost	Value	Dividends	Gain
ACAD	$16.18	$16.33	10,000	10,093	-	93
ANW	$0.73	$0.76	10,000	10,483	-	483
ANW	$0.88	$0.76	10,000	8,636	-	(1,364)
ANW	$2.93	$0.76	10,000	2,598	-	(7,402)
CAAP	$10.76	$10.09	10,000	9,377	-	(623)
CASA	$20.10	$17.70	10,000	8,806	-	(1,194)
CELG	$77.66	$78.80	10,000	10,147	-	147
DIN	$66.44	$80.86	10,000	12,170	-	2,170
DVAX	$16.80	$15.95	10,000	9,494	-	(506)
EVC	$4.15	$5.05	10,000	12,169	120	2,289
FENC	$10.82	$10.98	10,000	10,148	-	148
FTSI	$15.43	$15.34	10,000	9,942	-	(58)
FTSI	$18.31	$15.34	10,000	8,378	-	(1,622)
GBT	$41.75	$42.05	10,000	10,072	-	72
GILD	$65.21	$71.07	10,000	10,899	87	986
HRB	$24.05	$23.00	10,000	9,563	104	(333)
ICHR	$22.88	$22.20	10,000	9,703	-	(297)
MSGN	$19.65	$23.10	10,000	11,756	-	1,756
OMER	$19.79	$18.67	10,000	9,434	-	(566)
ROSE	$6.90	$8.57	10,000	12,420	-	2,420
SLSDF	$0.30	$0.31	10,000	10,382	-	382
TK	$7.54	$8.01	10,000	10,623	-	623
TOO	$2.53	$2.60	10,000	10,277	-	277

Stay tuned, I will continue to track and update.  Again, this is not MFI based, but simply rule based.