Friday, April 20, 2018

MFI Diary - Weekend Update 4/21/18

MFI Diary - Weekend Update 4/21/18

Greetings from Pittsburgh!  Today we watched some of the Buggy Races (part of Spring Carnival) at Carnegie Mellon.  Teams compete in relay fashion trying to get a "buggy" around a race course (perhaps 1.5 miles).  For the uphill portions (it is a hilly course), the buggy is pushed by runners as shown in picture (there are 5 runners on a team and you relay buggy from one runner to next) and the downhill portions are raced ala a soapbox derby (hard to believe, but there is a driver in the shown buggy).  It is actually pretty exciting and very competitive.  I highly recommend if you are ever in Pittsburgh near end of April.

Welcome to the almost world-famous MFI Diary.  This is a diary I have been maintaining since February 2006 (damn, that is a long time) tracking my "experiences" in investing real money in the methods discussed in "The Little Book That Beats The Markets".  I also spend some time discussing my MFI (Magic Formula Investing) Index and various MFI tracking portfolios that I have created over time.

And as a free bonus, I also discuss how my non-MFI investments are doing (generally poorly) in 2nd half of my blog.

I did create a guide recently for new readers to my blog that point you to some fascinating/interesting posts. 
I encourage you to give it a whirl (Guide To New Readers).  (PS - I continue to struggle to make this
link work.  You can instead go to Blog archive on left margin of this blog and you will find a link in October 2017). Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a non-economist, non-CFA with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor (pretty clear as I ended 1st quarter in the red overall).  You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.

Onwards.


Last Week

It was a better week for me.  Kind of a reversal.  After my Misc portfolio dragging me down for what seemed to be eons, it finally actually had a very good week, up 3.1% while the Russell 3000 was up only 60 basis points. Yes, it even makes my feet smile a little bit (very good album by the way if you've never given it a whirl).

My dividend portfolio also had a good week.  And I did buy some stocks this week, which I will list later (I know, the excitement)... including a new stock for dividend portfolio. But my MFI portfolios struggled a bit, finishing the week in the red.

The fact that I put some fresh $ into the market is a definite "Dennis Gartman" signal that the market has reached its peak.  We do continue to see the yield curve flatten, great article about that (NO BETTER SIGNAL THAN THE YIELD CURVE).

Here is table showing my performance:

 Component   YTD   2nd Quarter         Week      Change 
 Overall  -1.4% +1.7% +0.9%
 MFI Select  -0.3% -2.0% -1.3%
 MFI Formula  +3.1% +1.9% +0.8%
 MFI Combined  +1.4% -0.1% -0.3%
 Miscellaneous  -6.4% +3.8% +3.1%
 Dividend  -1.1% +2.1% +0.9%
 Dividend Index  -3.1% +0.6% +0.1%
 R3K Index  +0.5% +1.2% +0.6%
 Blended Index  -1.0% +1.0% +0.4%
 MFI Index  +9.8% +2.7% +0.5%
 GARIX  +0.6% +0.5% +0.5%


I have added a new column (to make me feel better), showing 2nd quarter performance along with YTD and weekly.  It does show I am doing better in Misc and Dividend in Q2 and struggling a bit in MFI, while results for the year are switched.  But the MFI Index is cooking in Q2 and YTD. Go figure.

MFI Select

I have two portfolios of MFI stocks involving real money.  I call in first (and oldest) MFI Select.  That is because I allow myself to pick whatever stocks I want, even those not on the official screen (although they always have to have MFI qualities of good companies at good prices).  I started MFI Select in August 2012 after quitting MFI for a year due to frustration at sub par results (it can be a challenging investing approach to stick with).  My MFI Select  portfolio consists of 4 tranches of 5 stocks apiece.  I buy and hold the stocks in each tranche for a year.  Here are the 4 open tranches:


5/6/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 WSTC  $24.15 $23.50 $0.00 -2.7% 13.1%
 TGNA  $25.75 $19.80 $0.28 -22.0% 13.1%
 TIME  $15.05 $18.50 $0.08 23.5% 13.1%
 MSGN  $23.55 $22.55 $0.00 -4.2% 13.1%
 QCOM  $54.93 $51.44 $2.28 -2.2% 13.1%
 Totals  -1.5% 13.1%
8/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 GHC  $591.10 $610.00 $3.81 3.8% 10.1%
 ICHR  $19.80 $22.48 $0.00 13.5% 10.1%
 MD  $43.00 $51.03 $0.00 18.7% 10.1%
 SIMO  $43.05 $48.15 $0.60 13.2% 10.1%
 RHI  $44.15 $58.56 $0.76 34.4% 10.1%
 Totals  16.7% 10.1%
11/15/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 MSGN  $16.67 $22.55 $0.00 35.3% 5.0%
 CELG  $100.60 $88.95 $0.00 -11.6% 5.0%
 EVC  $5.78 $5.05 $0.10 -10.9% 5.0%
 SIMO  $46.88 $48.15 $0.30 3.3% 5.0%
 VIAB  $24.41 $30.66 $0.40 27.3% 5.0%
 Totals  8.7% 5.0%
2/1/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AGX  $43.55 $37.10 $0.25 -14.2% -4.4%
 CASA  $18.81 $30.12 $0.00 60.1% -4.4%
 KLAC  $109.80 $101.48 $0.59 -7.0% -4.4%
 THO  $136.33 $101.66 $0.37 -25.2% -4.4%
 WDC  $87.74 $89.56 $0.50 2.6% -4.4%
 Totals  3.3% -4.4%

You can see that the May tranche has been pretty mediocre (interestingly, a consistent issue for May tranches), but the other 3 tranches are leading the R3K (Russell 3000).  This was a very tough week for tech stocks as TSM announced lowered guidance, so all my chip stocks (like KLAC and ICHR) really struggled.

Here is a table showing an aggregated version of all my tranches, open and closed.  I do publish individual tranches (closed) once a quarter if readers want to see all my historical picks.


 Category/Tranche   August   November   February   May   Total 
 Initial Investment         25,000             25,000           25,000        25,000         100,000
 Current Tranche  16.7% 8.7% 3.3% -1.5% 6.5%
 Previous Tranche  -0.1% 42.6% 74.9% 19.1% 35.0%
 Tranche -2  2.8% 8.0% 10.7% -25.2% -0.9%
 Tranche -3  11.2% 69.4% -14.3% 18.3% 21.2%
 Tranche -4  41.4% 14.2% 8.5% 33.0% 24.3%
 Tranche -5  14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 34.0%
 MFI Overall Gain  115.2% 365.9% 231.5% 37.9% 187.6%
 Current Balance         53,788           116,467           82,875        34,484         287,613
 R3K Current Tranche  10.1% 5.0% -4.4% 13.1% 6.0%
 R3K Overall Gain  110.9% 115.2% 93.0% 80.5% 99.9%
 R3K Balance         52,734             53,802           48,238        45,128         199,901
 Annualized IRR  14.4% 32.7% 25.8% 6.7% 19.9%


You can see it was not a very good week.  My 4 current tranches are at 6.5% and benchmark is 6.0%, so tightening up (note I only have two weeks left of mediocre May tranche and then it'll slide from "Current" to "previous" row).  Also, my annualized IRR dropped up 20%, to 19.9%.  Obviously that is still very good and I have always expected that I would drop at some time (gravity is a bitch).

Here are the individual stocks for the week, you can see the tech/chip issues if you look really hard (ha, ha).


 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 MSGN              22.35         22.55                       -   0.9%
 SIMO              48.79         48.15                       -   -1.3%
 VIAB              30.70         30.66                       -   -0.1%
 CASA              30.34         30.12                       -   -0.7%
 KLAC            107.59       101.48                       -   -5.7%
 THO            107.55       101.66                       -   -5.5%
 AGX              37.60         37.10                       -   -1.3%
 WDC              89.93         89.56                       -   -0.4%
 EVC                4.80            5.05                       -   5.2%
 ICHR              25.69         22.48                       -   -12.5%
 CELG              89.40         88.95                       -   -0.5%
 RHI              58.56         58.56                       -   0.0%
 MD              52.59         51.03                       -   -3.0%
 QCOM              55.73         51.44                       -   -7.7%
 GHC            609.40       610.00                       -   0.1%
 TGNA              20.03         19.80                       -   -1.2%

I actually think the tech/chip sell off is an opportunity and I will likely consider a few in my upcoming May tranche (wow, just saw how much MD has sold off as well... they were over $55 just a few weeks back).

Finally,  here is a table showing growth of a hypothetical $100,000 spread over first 4 tranches of MFI Select:


 Date   Differential   MFI Value   R3K Value 
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
1/1/2016 63.33%        209,514            146,186
4/1/2016 47.34%        195,770            148,430
7/1/2016 50.41%        201,092            150,680
10/1/2016 42.98%        198,563            155,582
1/1/2017 45.60%        209,503            163,936
4/1/2017 55.70%        229,473            173,735
7/1/2017 60.28%        239,060            178,782
10/1/2017 75.60%        262,489            186,886
1/1/2018 92.19%        291,114            198,926
4/1/2018 96.21%        293,665            197,451
Current 87.71%        287,613            199,901

Bummer, it is now in the red for 2018.

MFI Formula

My second real $ MFI portfolio is MFI Formula.  It is the opposite of MFI Select => here all my stocks are picked via a formula and a random number generator (I know, it can be gut-wrenching to not have control at the micro level).  I started this approach in October 2014 and it also has 4 tranches with each tranche having 5 stocks.  As it is a formula and random number generator, I do get a fair # of duplicates within the 4 tranches.  Here are the open tranches... actually same series of tables:


7/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 CSCO  $30.98 $44.09 $0.91 45.3% 11.7%
 GME  $20.95 $12.88 $1.14 -33.1% 11.7%
 HPQ  $17.60 $21.53 $0.40 24.6% 11.7%
 RGR  $60.70 $56.25 $0.67 -6.2% 11.7%
 SYNT  $16.21 $28.14 $0.00 73.6% 11.7%
 Totals  20.8% 11.7%
10/1/2017  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 DIN  $43.14 $74.09 $1.60 75.5% 6.9%
 GILD  $82.85 $73.70 $1.09 -9.7% 6.9%
 GME  $20.50 $12.88 $0.76 -33.5% 6.9%
 HPQ  $20.22 $21.53 $0.27 7.8% 6.9%
 OMC  $74.80 $73.74 $1.15 0.1% 6.9%
 Totals  8.0% 6.9%
1/2/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $177.11 $171.56 $1.32 -2.4% -0.1%
 GME  $18.06 $12.88 $0.38 -26.6% -0.1%
 GILD  $71.64 $73.70 $0.57 3.7% -0.1%
 HRB  $26.34 $27.10 $0.24 3.8% -0.1%
 OMC  $72.81 $73.74 $0.60 2.1% -0.1%
 Totals  -3.9% -0.1%
4/3/2018  Start   Current   Dividend   Pct Gain   R3K Gain 
 AMGN  $166.46 $171.56 $0.00 3.1% 3.2%
 VIAB  $29.20 $30.66 $0.00 5.0% 3.2%
 GILD  $72.71 $73.70 $0.00 1.4% 3.2%
 TUP  $47.32 $41.69 $0.00 -11.9% 3.2%
 EGOV  $13.29 $14.30 $0.00 7.6% 3.2%
 Totals  1.0% 3.2%

Two winning and two losing... that has been the MO of Formula since the beginning, very very much neck and neck with benchmark.  That is not a bad result in this era where growth/momo stocks have been in greater favor than value stocks.


 Category/Tranche   October   January   April   July   Total 
 Initial Investment      249,820        249,939     250,180      249,728         999,667
 Current Tranche  8.0% -3.9% 1.0% 20.8% 5.6%
 Previous Tranche  7.0% 16.5% 21.3% 26.7% 17.5%
 Tranche -2  5.5% 9.3% 25.2% -12.5% 6.9%
 Tranche -3  0.5% 11.0% -0.2% 0.0% 2.8%
 MFI Overall Gain  22.5% 35.8% 53.0% 34.0% 36.4%
 Current Balance      306,058        339,531     382,895      334,637      1,363,121
 R3K Current Tranche  6.9% -0.1% 3.2% 11.7% 5.4%
 R3K Overall Gain  43.4% 34.8% 33.8% 30.0% 35.5%
 R3K Balance      358,265        336,967     334,661      324,673      1,354,564
 Annualized IRR  5.9% 9.7% 14.9% 11.0% 10.4%

Again, the neck and neck nature.  Current tranches up 5.6% vs 5.4% for R3K.  An overall 10.4% annual IRR.


 Stock   Last Week   Current   Dividend   Change 
 GILD              75.22         73.70                       -   -2.0%
 AMGN            171.48       171.56                       -   0.0%
 OMC              71.86         73.74                       -   2.6%
 GME              13.61         12.88                       -   -5.4%
 HPQ              21.77         21.53                       -   -1.1%
 VIAB              30.70         30.66                       -   -0.1%
 EGOV              14.00         14.30                       -   2.1%
 TUP              41.71         41.69                       -   0.0%
 DIN              71.94         74.09                       -   3.0%
 SYNT              25.28         28.14                       -   11.3%
 HRB              26.05         27.10                       -   4.0%
 CSCO              43.00         44.09                       -   2.5%
 RGR              54.95         56.25                       -   2.4%

SYNT had good earnings, this has been one of my best MFI stocks ever.  It has been a winner across multiple tranches.  GME is just depressing. The whole reason I feel the formula approach "works" is that it tends to avoid "stinker" stocks, those that drop 30% or more.  My MFI analysis shows that about 1 in 7 (14%) stocks from MFI screen (over $100m) become a stinker.  But I have only had 2 stinkers in my 55 closed stock years (VIAB and BKE, both in July 2015).  But GME is a stinker twice (so far) in my 20 open positions and very close a 3rd time.  Ouch.

Here is how $100,000 has grown (hypothetically):


 Date   Differential   Value   R3K Value 
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
1/1/2016 -3.36%          96,830            100,012
4/1/2016 0.34%        102,371            101,548
7/1/2016 -0.19%        103,022            103,216
10/1/2016 -0.85%        106,377            107,230
1/1/2017 1.57%        113,406            111,832
4/1/2017 -1.86%        116,227            118,091
7/1/2017 -2.40%        119,144            121,545
10/1/2017 -2.56%        124,448            127,007
1/1/2018 -3.63%        131,460            135,086
4/1/2018 -0.16%        133,734            133,898
Current 0.86%        136,312            135,456

At least in the black for 2018... unlike Select.

Dividend Portfolio

That completes my discussion of things MFI.  Now I will talk about my other two investing approaches: Dividend and Miscellaneous.  My dividend portfolio is my largest portfolio.  It is not meant to be exciting, but rather produce income for me and wife as I am retired.  So it isn't just stocks, it has Closed end funds, mutual funds with bonds and preferred stocks.  I know that some of these may not perform well on an absolute basis in a rising interest rate environment, but I want some relative certainty on retirement income.  I have tried to pick some names that flex with interest rates, such as GLOP-PB, which has a floating (with Libor) feature (editor note: I just saw in table below that GLOP-PB shows as a 5.2% yield. That is incorrect as first dividend was just a partial quarter => it is a new issue The actual yield is 8.0% with the floating feature kicking in several years later, I think 3 years but maybe 5).

I did sell some of my RLJ-PA this week and bought some DDR.  RLJ just seems destined to keep going down... it just was not a smart buy.  DDR is riskier, but has a higher yield and strong insider buying.  They are also in the process of a spin off of some assets, which may unlock some value.  I also added a bit to KCLI, which just seems as certain an investment as there is out there for limited downside over next 4 years but very good upside (50%+).  

I also added to LADR this week as it sold off stupidly below $14 due to announcement of a suitor leaving (but the suitor only left because everyone knew their $15 bid was too low).  I also added to CPLP as they have exposure to containers (in shipping) an area that has been afire.  But while other container stocks have gone up substantially, CPLP has not (as it is a smaller portion of their fleet).

So yes, this was a very active week for me in my dividend stocks. Part of it was because I paid my taxes and decided it was time to put a little more money to work in what I viewed as good opportunities.  Here is my table of dividend stocks.  I am a bit lazy right now and have not added DDR to the table yet.  Probably next week.


 Dividend Stocks  Start  Current   Divvy   Overall Pct Gain   Weekly Pct Gain   12/30/17 Price   Yield   2018 
 TK      7.43         8.97      0.08 21.7% 2.3%           9.32 2.5% -3.8%
 OIBAX      5.91         6.03      0.25 6.2% 0.0%           5.96 3.9% 1.2%
 NS    29.41       21.28      0.91 -24.5% 2.7%        29.95 11.3% -28.9%
 KCLI    48.14       42.76      0.52 -10.1% 0.0%        45.25 2.5% -5.5%
 GLOP-PB    25.36       25.39      0.33 1.4% -0.2%        25.36 5.2% 0.1%
 TGP    18.28       18.70      0.14 3.1% 2.7%        20.15 3.0% -7.2%
 AMID    11.87       11.50      0.18 -1.6% 4.5%        13.35 14.3% -13.9%
 KNOP    21.30       20.80      0.52 0.1% 3.2%        20.75 10.0% 0.2%
 LADR    13.35       14.12      0.61 10.3% -5.2%        13.63 8.9% 3.6%
 CPLP      3.50         3.28      0.14 -2.4% 2.5%           3.36 9.8% -2.4%
 JQC      8.18         7.98      0.80 7.4% 0.4%           8.22 6.2% -2.9%
 ISBC    13.25       13.60      0.24 4.5% 0.7%        13.88 2.6% -2.0%
 EVG    14.46       13.35      0.64 -3.3% -1.6%        14.35 6.9% -7.0%
 FDEU    18.40       17.88      1.18 3.6% 0.7%        18.83 8.1% -5.0%
 PSXP    47.39       50.11      1.71 9.3% 2.2%        52.35 5.4% -4.3%
 RLJ-PA    28.45       25.40      1.46 -5.6% -0.4%        27.01 7.7% -6.0%
 SBRA    22.15       17.20      0.62 -19.6% 0.0%        18.77 10.5% -8.4%
 NRZ    16.56       16.55      1.67 10.0% 2.6%        17.88 12.1% -7.4%
 DSL    19.47       20.17      2.44 16.1% -0.5%        20.19 8.9% -0.1%
 OCSI      8.68         8.06      0.57 -0.5% 2.2%           8.40 9.4% -4.0%
 TGONF    11.04       12.79      1.96 33.7% -2.0%        13.30 5.6% -3.9%
 TOO      2.33         2.57      0.01 10.5% -1.2%           2.36 1.6% 8.9%
 O    26.04       49.53    21.44 172.5% -2.5%        57.02 5.3% -13.1%
 Totals  2.9% 0.8% 6.6% -1.0%

So it was actually a decent week.  I was up 90 basis points (80 basis points as shown here, plus my small bank portfolio which I'll discuss shortly), while my dividend index (40 securities from a Barron's article in December) was up just 10 basis points.  You can see AMID had a nice week, this is a stock I doubled down on 3/29 at $10.80.

I also have a basket of 10 smaller bank stocks.  They were up 2% on the week:


 Bank   Start   Current   Dividends   Change   2018 Change   Yield 
 ACBI          16.99          19.25                 -   13.3% 9.4% 0.0%
 ASB          25.69          26.50            0.15 3.8% 4.3% 2.4%
 FBIZ          23.69          25.88            0.14 9.9% 17.0% 2.2%
 FULT          18.81          17.15            0.23 -7.6% -4.2% 2.7%
 FNB          14.47          13.23            0.12 -7.7% -4.3% 3.6%
 MSBI          32.96          31.96            0.22 -2.4% -1.6% 2.8%
 NRIM          37.47          35.65            0.45 -3.6% 5.3% 2.7%
 PACW          48.30          50.98            0.50 6.6% 1.2% 4.1%
 SONA          17.13          16.01            0.08 -6.0% -0.1% 2.1%
 WNEB          10.88          10.85            0.04 0.1% -0.5% 1.5%
 Total  0.6% 2.7% 2.4%

This is a portfolio I expected to see some M and A in 2018.  So far crickets.  Finally, here are the 40 holdings from my dividend index:


 Ticker  12/30/2017  Current   Dividend   YTD Change   Weekly Change   Yield 
 AMLP                10.79          10.02               0.21 -5.2% 3.5%         8.40%
 NML                  9.38             8.55               0.22 -6.5% 3.8% 7.72%
 EPD                26.51          26.59               0.42 1.9% 3.2% 6.32%
 ETP                17.92          18.15               0.57 4.4% 6.5% 12.19%
 FDD                13.73          14.33               0.15 5.4% 1.2% 2.44%
 VGK                59.15          59.85               0.38 1.8% 0.5% 2.67%
 DDAIF                84.57          79.95               3.25 -1.6% -1.4% 5.63%
 NVS                83.96          77.88               2.75 -4.0% -3.9% 3.84%
 NOBL                64.04          62.31               0.33 -2.2% 0.1% 1.87%
 VYM                85.63          83.13               0.62 -2.2% -0.1% 2.95%
 MRK                56.27          58.83               0.48 5.4% 2.9% 3.23%
 PEP              119.92        102.48               0.81 -13.9% -6.2% 3.15%
 VNQ                82.98          74.06               0.98 -9.6% -0.8% 4.90%
 RQI                12.65          11.43               0.32 -7.1% -1.7% 4.81%
 TCO                65.43          54.95               0.63 -15.1% -3.8% 4.63%
 SLG              100.93          96.00               0.78 -4.1% 0.9% 3.29%
 T                38.88          34.67               0.98 -8.3% -1.3% 5.71%
 VZ                52.93          47.90               1.12 -7.4% 0.5% 4.89%
 CHL                50.54          46.52                    -   -8.0% -1.1% 3.93%
 DTEGY                17.66          17.30                    -   -2.0% 0.5% 3.93%
 DSU                11.70          11.45               0.28 0.2% -1.5% 4.19%
 HIO                  5.07             4.78               0.09 -4.0% -1.0% 4.66%
 MUB              110.74        108.17               0.84 -1.6% -0.3% 2.30%
 PRHYX                  6.76             6.63               0.09 -0.6% -0.3% 5.40%
 NEA                13.75          12.84               0.24 -4.9% -0.5% 5.55%
 JNK                36.72          35.99               0.66 -0.2% -0.5% 5.58%
 VWITX                14.13          13.84               0.12 -1.2% -0.2% 0.00%
 PHMIX                  9.09             9.00               0.13 0.4% -0.1% 2.80%
 UTG                30.94          28.10               0.64 -7.1% 0.6% 4.20%
 XLU                52.65          50.30               0.42 -3.7% 1.0% 3.40%
 DUK                84.11          77.68               0.89 -6.6% 1.3% 4.52%
 EIX                63.24          64.12               0.54 2.3% 1.1% 3.57%
 PFF                38.07          37.29               0.72 -0.2% 0.3% 5.58%
 JPC                10.34             9.87               0.26 -2.0% -0.5% 4.60%
 WFC-PL          1,309.99    1,273.96             18.75 -1.3% -1.0% 5.80%
 TIP              114.08        112.38               0.84 -0.8% -0.6% 2.38%
 SHY                83.85          83.26               0.32 -0.3% -0.1% 1.11%
 TLT              126.86        118.46               1.02 -5.8% -2.0% 2.59%
 Totals                       -                    -                      -   -3.0% 0.0% 4.33%

You can see the pipeline MLPs (AMLP, EPD and ETP) had strong weeks (like my AMID).


Miscellaneous

While it was a busy week for me in my dividend portfolio, I was also pretty active here.  My two main buys were AXS and MAC.  AXS is an international property-casualty insurer. They are well-run and trade around $56 with a 2.5% yield.  To me, the interesting part is their price to book ratio, which is just 1.03.  When you look at peers:

  • AHL is in play and is at 1.08
  • XL is being bought and is at 1.44
  • VR is being bought and is at 1.53
  • AWH was bought last year at a bit over 1.50
  • ACGL is at 1.35
  • ENH was sold 15 months ago at 1.50.

AXS is way better than AHL, so they seem worth (to me) somewhere between 1.35 and 1.50.  Besides ACGL, they are one of the last sizable companies that could be bought.  I view not much downside and decent upside here.

The MAC buy was an add-on.  I already owned shares and doubled position at $57.  They yield 5.4% and seem likely to be in play (Starboard and Third Point have stakes and have nominated new directors).  Today the CEO announced he will retire at end of year... seems to set stage for new directors to put up a "for sale" sign.  Hopefully we get some interest, I have a fair number of Misc stocks awaiting catalysts that seem a long time coming (must be patient).

My surge in my Misc portfolio was driven by SSW.  I mentioned container rates for shipping going up and SSW is probably the biggest pure play container ship company.  They spiked about 15% this week as DB upgraded to a buy with a $13 PT (they are at $7.76).  ROSE (a small Delaware basin play) spiked 15% on higher oil prices.  WLFC was up another 3% (just keeps going up).  Then NMM, a dry bulk shipper with some exposure to the higher container rates, was up 6.5%.  It also helped that the BDI (a measure of spot rates for dry bulk shipping) was up sharply this week. NMM remains of of my holdings that I believe has the greatest upside (currently $1.81 and it was $2.50 at the start of 2018 - I believe it can get back to $2.50).

SLSDF was my big down Misc stock, off about 9%.  This is a stock that will either go bankrupt (as alternatives to their sand emerge) or they will get bought and more than double.  I will just hang around and see which it is, I have too much sunk cost to bail.

I also have a basket of gold/miner stocks in my Misc portfolio.  These were up over 3% on the week and have really been strong (although a bit volatile) of late:


 Miner   Start   Current   Change   2018 Change 
 TORXF            9.90          10.10 2.0% 6.3%
 SAND            4.48             4.66 4.0% -6.6%
 NSU            2.38             2.70 13.2% 10.5%
 KLDX            2.41             2.48 2.9% -5.0%
 KL          14.49          16.72 15.4% 8.9%
 GSS            0.87             0.73 -16.3% -18.5%
 FSM            4.24             5.93 39.9% 13.6%
 EXK            2.14             3.06 43.0% 28.0%
 BTG            2.61             2.84 8.8% -8.4%
 EGO            1.18             0.98 -16.9% -31.5%
 Total  9.6% -0.3%

So up 9.6% since I started in Dec 2017.  But down 0.3% in 2018.

Finally, OLBK closed this week with BYBK.  I have to hold for another month to lock in LT capital gains.  But OLBK (now showing up in my account) had a solid week.  In total my BYBK/OLBK (bought 4/27/17 and 5/22/17) is now a two bagger.  Just wish I had bought more!  Also wish my other small bank holdings (basket shown in dividend section, OFED and FUNC) would get some acquisition interest).  Stay tuned, in my view just a matter of time.

Have a great weekend everybody!


2 comments:

Unknown said...

We're both getting smoked by TGNA right now. I've got until June for it turn around before I sell. Not looking too bright.

What do we do about GME? I see it's in 3/4 portfolios for MFI non-select and it's a shame. It's obviously got a great dividend, but will that hold? And will the price ever come back?

Marsh_Gerda said...

I have TGNA on short list for buying again in May. It is way too cheap and broadcast TV stations will likely be running a lot of political ads this fall. GME is frustrating, even with flattening sales my view is they are too cheap. There is a real chance they trim dividend (in my view) and perhaps increase share buyback (makes more sense) or pay down debt. I personally think at current prices they have to be having discussions with IB about going private.