Beautiful Sunday morning here in Southern New England. Sometimes I think when I retire I would move to a less expensive area, but mornings like this (59 degrees with a perfect sunrise through the tall trees off my back deck) make me want to stay.
I have one week to go on my June 30th monthly tracking portfolio (this is the 50 stocks from the official screen over 100m) and it is looking like a nice winner. It is up 23% and is leading benchmark by 6 points. Value stocks seem to be coming back in vogue. It has 15 stocks that are up by 50% or more - I have enjoyed a few of those: CPLA, ILG, HPQ and WNC. Then just three stocks down by 40% or more (DHX, FIT and WILN).
I was thinking the other day about how to know if the market is nearing a downturn/crash/correction. I do read Decision Moose, but he has been just so-so lately in his results. I have a trial subscription to Yardeni Research. He has a very good track record. Here is a link to recent publication (High Frequency Indicators - Yardeni Research).
Even further - what to do to protect? I already have a large cash component, is that enough? Should I put a chunk of it in treasuries as they will spike in a crash? Should I buy a levered S&P bear fund (like SDS)? Or I saw a way to use S&P puts to essentially buy insurance against a 30% crash. I really do not what is the best option. I may have to call a friend or use a mobile shout out.
As I mentioned, I have one week left of my July 1st tranche. I will be buying my 5 new stocks (with a 40% bump in cash) a week from Monday. Here are the choices if I were buying today:
HRB
BKE
CSCO
DIN
GILD
GME
HPQ
OMC
PBI
SYNT
I know, the list really does not change much quarter to quarter. I already own all of these but DIN. I do retain the right to throw one name out before random number generator - but I will likely just keep them all in (despite being bearish on retail). GILD would actually be the best candidate to toss as it has become out-sized position for me. VIAB is very close to returning to the list - despite their 50% dividend reduction last summer.
Top 200 List
As my readers may know, I regularly create my own top 200 list. I worked with some smart people on the Yahoo Groups MFI board and created a spreadsheet that does a very good job matching the metrics of the book and the official website (which in the early days posted calculated earnings yield and ROIC).
My list is ranked and shows dividend yield (per the unreliable Yahoo Finance). It also has more stocks as I do not necessarily throw out other countries and I have some financial-type stocks (such as Humana) that the official list excludes.
But keep in mind that I am just a single person with a spreadsheet - so please do your own analysis before making investment decisions.
Hmm, Yahoo Finance is being more finicky than usual. This list may be a bit incomplete. I have about 3000 stocks in my universe and it crashed at 2400. I do not have the patience (on this beautiful Sunday) to fix right now. It also refuse to give me dividend yields (probably I hurt Yahoo Finances' feeling). But eyeballing the list, HRB is the only stock that really seems to be MIA.
| Ticker | Rank | Stock Price | Market Cap | Earnings Yield | ROIC |
| NHTC | 1 | 28.92 | 325 | 27% | 4747% |
| RCM | 2 | 3.75 | 379 | 66% | 967% |
| VVUS | 3 | 1.22 | 129 | 60% | 943% |
| AVDL | 4 | 10.69 | 458 | 20% | 1948% |
| AGX | 5 | 60.70 | 957 | 17% | 825% |
| NTIP | 6 | 3.95 | 104 | 29% | 335% |
| IDCC | 7 | 81.25 | 2,943 | 18% | 461% |
| GILD | 8 | 70.52 | 93,086 | 16% | 598% |
| YRD | 9 | 24.55 | 1,483 | 18% | 417% |
| AGTC | 10 | 5.45 | 99 | 132% | 264% |
| MNKD | 11 | 1.51 | 145 | 26% | 233% |
| CALL | 12 | 6.90 | 111 | 14% | 381% |
| PDLI | 13 | 2.54 | 417 | 11% | 3237% |
| UTHR | 14 | 131.59 | 6,040 | 19% | 195% |
| AMAG | 15 | 18.35 | 631 | 12% | 616% |
| RILY | 16 | 17.50 | 343 | 17% | 187% |
| TRNC | 17 | 13.38 | 486 | 17% | 182% |
| AVID | 18 | 5.05 | 206 | 14% | 202% |
| BPT | 19 | 20.75 | 444 | 10% | 21810% |
| ANTM | 20 | 190.17 | 51,422 | 11% | 295% |
| NSR | 21 | 33.35 | 1,902 | 14% | 199% |
| VEC | 22 | 30.19 | 334 | 13% | 200% |
| DHX | 23 | 2.95 | 142 | 14% | 166% |
| TGNA | 24 | 14.55 | 3,166 | 13% | 171% |
| LFVN | 25 | 4.22 | 60 | 19% | 126% |
| MSGN | 26 | 22.00 | 1,664 | 11% | 232% |
| SCMP | 27 | 10.85 | 674 | 12% | 168% |
| CHKE | 28 | 7.50 | 87 | 9% | 906% |
| HWAY | 29 | 23.70 | 961 | 9% | 1275% |
| CSCO | 30 | 32.09 | 161,894 | 10% | 380% |
| SYNT | 31 | 16.51 | 1,384 | 14% | 124% |
| ESRX | 32 | 65.22 | 39,465 | 9% | 405% |
| DLX | 33 | 69.07 | 3,364 | 9% | 454% |
| BEVFF | 34 | 1.97 | 209 | 9% | 2836% |
| TDC | 35 | 29.76 | 3,881 | 10% | 242% |
| GME | 36 | 20.65 | 2,094 | 21% | 88% |
| MPAA | 37 | 28.32 | 551 | 10% | 162% |
| AOBC | 38 | 23.70 | 1,354 | 15% | 94% |
| SQBG | 39 | 3.88 | 242 | 9% | 267% |
| HPQ | 40 | 17.80 | 30,420 | 10% | 214% |
| UIS | 41 | 12.60 | 633 | 17% | 88% |
| WU | 42 | 19.17 | 9,267 | 9% | 516% |
| TARO | 43 | 116.06 | 4,708 | 16% | 88% |
| VIAB | 44 | 34.11 | 13,627 | 10% | 140% |
| PBI | 45 | 15.08 | 2,818 | 11% | 122% |
| MEET | 46 | 4.78 | 316 | 9% | 276% |
| HPE | 47 | 16.85 | 27,937 | 16% | 85% |
| JMEI | 48 | 2.39 | 359 | 749% | 71% |
| FRAN | 49 | 10.50 | 390 | 18% | 73% |
| WCG | 50 | 183.28 | 8,216 | 9% | 226% |
| VIA | 51 | 39.15 | 15,640 | 10% | 140% |
| AMCX | 52 | 53.93 | 3,708 | 12% | 89% |
| USNA | 53 | 64.55 | 1,612 | 10% | 137% |
| MCFT | 54 | 18.67 | 348 | 9% | 255% |
| GHC | 55 | 598.50 | 3,333 | 10% | 117% |
| DISCK | 56 | 25.06 | 14,735 | 9% | 159% |
| DIN | 57 | 43.46 | 771 | 10% | 105% |
| PRSC | 58 | 50.47 | 695 | 9% | 146% |
| UEPS | 59 | 9.75 | 525 | 29% | 63% |
| CXRX | 60 | 1.30 | 66 | 8% | 1220% |
| MIK | 61 | 18.00 | 3,427 | 12% | 85% |
| DISCA | 62 | 25.79 | 15,165 | 9% | 159% |
| CBI | 63 | 14.00 | 1,419 | 11% | 87% |
| BKE | 64 | 16.80 | 812 | 26% | 63% |
| FOX | 65 | 26.93 | 49,901 | 10% | 114% |
| LEE | 66 | 1.90 | 105 | 14% | 74% |
| FOXA | 67 | 27.19 | 50,383 | 10% | 114% |
| FUJHY | 68 | 16.33 | 25,050 | 20% | 62% |
| TNH | 69 | 86.31 | 1,597 | 14% | 70% |
| NLS | 70 | 18.35 | 571 | 9% | 159% |
| HLF | 71 | 74.03 | 6,418 | 9% | 165% |
| HUM | 72 | 238.42 | 35,494 | 9% | 177% |
| WNC | 73 | 21.65 | 1,372 | 13% | 70% |
| BBY | 74 | 55.18 | 17,382 | 12% | 78% |
| RHI | 75 | 47.46 | 6,000 | 10% | 105% |
| GNTX | 76 | 18.40 | 5,363 | 11% | 80% |
| PCO | 77 | 6.71 | 177 | 22% | 57% |
| NCMI | 78 | 7.47 | 451 | 8% | 176% |
| MDP | 79 | 57.00 | 2,597 | 9% | 119% |
| RGR | 80 | 66.60 | 1,225 | 11% | 78% |
| MED | 81 | 41.48 | 498 | 8% | 171% |
| PNLYY | 82 | 4.59 | 2,028 | 14% | 63% |
| OMC | 83 | 82.37 | 19,481 | 8% | 284% |
| ETM | 84 | 10.25 | 399 | 11% | 80% |
| PMD | 85 | 22.95 | 127 | 10% | 85% |
| CVS | 86 | 77.41 | 80,119 | 10% | 88% |
| LEA | 87 | 138.02 | 9,707 | 14% | 61% |
| CJREF | 88 | 9.91 | 1,984 | 9% | 150% |
| DNB | 89 | 102.24 | 3,793 | 7% | 945% |
| GPP | 90 | 18.30 | 582 | 9% | 118% |
| MBUU | 91 | 25.00 | 449 | 8% | 176% |
| TIME | 92 | 13.60 | 1,355 | 10% | 83% |
| FL | 93 | 48.03 | 6,369 | 18% | 53% |
| QCOM | 94 | 56.91 | 84,739 | 8% | 226% |
| TZOO | 95 | 10.60 | 141 | 8% | 174% |
| CPLA | 96 | 85.90 | 1,025 | 8% | 202% |
| AMGN | 97 | 172.50 | 127,823 | 8% | 160% |
| SGU | 98 | 10.59 | 592 | 10% | 81% |
| KLAC | 99 | 97.95 | 15,451 | 8% | 151% |
| AMN | 100 | 37.50 | 1,857 | 9% | 90% |
| KORS | 101 | 35.34 | 5,719 | 12% | 61% |
| CKHUY | 102 | 12.71 | 49,053 | 14% | 56% |
| BIIB | 103 | 280.32 | 60,521 | 8% | 128% |
| CSRA | 104 | 31.91 | 5,261 | 9% | 113% |
| NATH | 105 | 64.80 | 273 | 8% | 287% |
| WSTC | 106 | 23.21 | 1,978 | 9% | 96% |
| SIMO | 107 | 50.24 | 1,807 | 9% | 90% |
| MAN | 108 | 106.58 | 7,290 | 10% | 69% |
| HSII | 109 | 22.30 | 429 | 10% | 68% |
| FFIV | 110 | 129.99 | 8,453 | 7% | 456% |
| BOJA | 111 | 15.85 | 612 | 8% | 123% |
| IPG | 112 | 24.25 | 9,683 | 8% | 150% |
| WIT | 113 | 5.09 | 12,307 | 14% | 52% |
| ALOT | 114 | 13.35 | 102 | 7% | 3021% |
| MCK | 115 | 166.96 | 35,729 | 8% | 147% |
| SNI | 116 | 67.40 | 8,812 | 9% | 80% |
| SP | 117 | 29.30 | 658 | 8% | 219% |
| ODP | 118 | 5.60 | 2,979 | 14% | 51% |
| AWRE | 119 | 5.15 | 115 | 8% | 119% |
| HMTV | 120 | 11.90 | 485 | 8% | 103% |
| NCIT | 121 | 20.40 | 271 | 8% | 102% |
| SPLS | 122 | 9.29 | 6,104 | 14% | 49% |
| MLHR | 123 | 29.40 | 1,775 | 10% | 62% |
| CSGS | 124 | 41.10 | 1,340 | 9% | 92% |
| ACIA | 125 | 44.62 | 1,859 | 8% | 106% |
| BAH | 126 | 32.22 | 4,853 | 8% | 158% |
| PFNX | 127 | 4.44 | 104 | 9% | 76% |
| GPS | 128 | 21.97 | 8,788 | 16% | 46% |
| RECN | 129 | 13.60 | 416 | 10% | 62% |
| SBH | 130 | 19.13 | 2,704 | 11% | 54% |
| CA | 131 | 34.98 | 14,517 | 7% | 487% |
| GIB | 132 | 51.22 | 15,551 | 7% | 248% |
| JNPR | 133 | 28.29 | 10,977 | 9% | 88% |
| DL | 134 | 9.47 | 311 | 8% | 166% |
| MGLN | 135 | 72.65 | 1,746 | 10% | 68% |
| EGRX | 136 | 81.68 | 1,320 | 8% | 154% |
| LB | 137 | 53.46 | 15,450 | 10% | 66% |
| CSVI | 138 | 46.75 | 654 | 8% | 111% |
| CLCT | 139 | 26.26 | 225 | 7% | 510% |
| DST | 140 | 62.21 | 1,991 | 11% | 55% |
| CNC | 141 | 84.15 | 14,797 | 7% | 171% |
| SHI | 142 | 51.44 | 5,560 | 20% | 42% |
| ICON | 143 | 6.62 | 377 | 12% | 50% |
| BGSF | 144 | 18.07 | 161 | 9% | 84% |
| HCKT | 145 | 15.10 | 488 | 8% | 144% |
| APEI | 146 | 23.25 | 379 | 16% | 44% |
| AAPL | 147 | 146.28 | 769,680 | 7% | 218% |
| DFIN | 148 | 22.56 | 740 | 10% | 64% |
| TJX | 149 | 69.27 | 45,358 | 9% | 80% |
| EBF | 150 | 17.55 | 447 | 11% | 51% |
| ROST | 151 | 56.29 | 21,938 | 9% | 79% |
| KLIC | 152 | 20.31 | 1,468 | 11% | 50% |
| TPX | 153 | 49.86 | 2,722 | 9% | 73% |
| TWX | 154 | 99.70 | 78,693 | 8% | 115% |
| MD | 155 | 59.97 | 5,586 | 7% | 153% |
| HLT | 156 | 65.40 | 21,647 | 7% | 550% |
| TSQ | 157 | 9.77 | 180 | 11% | 51% |
| SCS | 158 | 13.65 | 1,611 | 13% | 46% |
| SPOK | 159 | 17.40 | 358 | 8% | 141% |
| ABBV | 160 | 72.64 | 116,442 | 7% | 288% |
| AEO | 161 | 11.53 | 2,095 | 18% | 40% |
| SBGI | 162 | 33.40 | 3,129 | 10% | 62% |
| INFY | 163 | 14.85 | 33,957 | 9% | 72% |
| JEC | 164 | 52.81 | 6,428 | 9% | 72% |
| VVV | 165 | 23.90 | 4,900 | 8% | 82% |
| EME | 166 | 65.62 | 3,945 | 8% | 83% |
| THO | 167 | 107.94 | 5,696 | 9% | 69% |
| AMWD | 168 | 95.05 | 1,558 | 8% | 91% |
| PBT | 169 | 8.74 | 407 | 6% | 13114% |
| LCI | 170 | 19.95 | 753 | 14% | 42% |
| CRUS | 171 | 66.01 | 4,427 | 8% | 93% |
| SCLN | 172 | 10.95 | 580 | 9% | 70% |
| KBAL | 173 | 16.35 | 615 | 9% | 61% |
| AVP | 174 | 3.48 | 1,526 | 11% | 48% |
| CECE | 175 | 9.34 | 323 | 9% | 58% |
| ABC | 176 | 95.82 | 21,197 | 8% | 114% |
| TUP | 177 | 70.94 | 3,618 | 8% | 93% |
| SERV | 178 | 39.94 | 5,432 | 7% | 258% |
| ENR | 179 | 49.77 | 3,126 | 8% | 84% |
| HSNI | 180 | 31.85 | 1,682 | 10% | 47% |
| BBBY | 181 | 29.65 | 4,328 | 21% | 36% |
| SAIC | 182 | 70.82 | 3,208 | 7% | 176% |
| EGOV | 183 | 20.00 | 1,321 | 7% | 403% |
| PLPM | 184 | 3.33 | 171 | 6% | 635% |
| ROIAK | 185 | 2.55 | 122 | 8% | 86% |
| CYOU | 186 | 39.07 | 2,088 | 10% | 48% |
| TPB | 187 | 16.30 | 320 | 8% | 68% |
| ROIA | 188 | 2.75 | 132 | 8% | 86% |
| BBSI | 189 | 57.47 | 417 | 7% | 116% |
| PLUS | 190 | 74.35 | 1,040 | 9% | 57% |
| CBS | 191 | 63.61 | 26,462 | 8% | 83% |
| GTN | 192 | 13.35 | 968 | 9% | 55% |
| KNL | 193 | 19.80 | 978 | 10% | 45% |
| ATTO | 194 | 10.90 | 806 | 10% | 46% |
| DG | 195 | 69.75 | 19,196 | 9% | 52% |
| BAK | 196 | 19.36 | 3,328 | 28% | 33% |
| MMS | 197 | 63.15 | 4,165 | 8% | 90% |
| GURE | 198 | 1.61 | 75 | 3170% | 32% |
| NCR | 199 | 38.64 | 4,745 | 8% | 86% |
| RPXC | 200 | 13.73 | 677 | 6% | 615% |
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