Well, certainly the good news is that my MFI portfolio is up an impressive 33% since my all-time low set on November 20th. That is certainly a decent "Santa Claus" rally. The bad news is that I would probably need another 3 consecutive months like that to make my feet start smiling again. Oh well, I don't suppose Rome was built in a day, at least things are starting to go in the right direction. I have been adding a few positions lately, here is my current portfolio along with some thoughts about each stock, a few are not "on the list", but I am considering to be value stocks that fit the spirit of MFI.
HBMFF - I bought Hudbay in February and it has been an unmitigated disaster. Down 87% as Zinc prices collapsed and Hudbay bought Lundin mining, a move the market didn't like. Hard to sell at this point, I'll decide what to do in February.
IAR (now IDAR) - Obviously a dog of dogs, another unmitigated disaster, down 98%... I had my share in 2008, which I will be glad to bid adieu.
CHCG - wow, I had some stinkers, down 62%. However, I think these guys have some upside. They are a Chinese retailer and trade at 68 cents despite earning 45 cents per share in past 4 quarters. As they sell in China, they are not subject (in my view) to export risks (at least directly) as the economy slows.
BID - Sotherbys was another bad stock, down 69% for me. I thought being part of a duo-opoly would protect them a bit during the downturn as their stock had already dropped 50%, but I was clearly wrong. Not on any lists right now, I may sell this Spring.
FTO - hey a winner, down only 54%! The refiners have gotten crushed. FTO seems like the best run of the independents. I will likely continue to hold. The lower price of oil has to help a bit.
VALU - this sleepy stock has been one of my best. Basically flat since May, they recently had decent earnings and bumped their dividend.
QXM - This Chinese phone manufacturer, that sells primarily in China has a ton of cash. I show them with 435m and 423m of shareholder equity. With a market cap of 105m, they are trading at 30% of book value! They have made $1.62 per share in past 12 months and trading at just $2.25.
CAST - another of my Chinese/MFI stocks. They are struggling as well. They are into education, both brick & mortar as well as onlne. They are dirt cheap and have a strong balance sheet. But until the markets unfreeze, these speculative smaller cap stocks really do not have a catalyst.
BR - a spin-off from ADP, down 36% since I bought them. They actually expect 2009 fiscal year to be better than 2008. Not many people are saying that.
BOLT - not been a good time for oil service companies, BOLT is down 63% since I bought them. Not sure what to do here.
KHD - a Hong Kong based supplier of construction materials. They also have a ton of cash and backlogs, but the market is clearly discounting what they have.
PCR - US based construction firm that has risen pretty sharply of late as people feel they may get involved in Obama spending. They were $12.50 in November and are now almost $23.
CSKI - a Chinese pharma company that is really moving on up lately. Like PCR. they have almost doubled since mid-November. They have great growth opportunities, nice pipeline of drugs and solid balance sheet.
KBR - has really battled back, like PCR. Solid balance sheet and project backlog.
TRA - I rebought Terra Industries, which was really beaten down on the theory that Obama would be helping the farmers given his Illinois roots and the help he got from Iowa. Hasn't worked yet.
TC - not a true MFI stock, but a Jubak stock. Great balance sheet and if the commodity prices move up at all, they could quickly double.
BBSI - been an MFI stock forever. Tough industry, but well run company.
LINE - I bought this oil & gas company a coupe weeks ago when Seth Klarman bought them around $18 (I bought at $12.50). They got a great feature article in Barron's this week, so I'll be interested to see if that spurs interest in them.
GSK and PFE - last week I bought a basket of pharma stocks. I was looking for stability of earnings and nice dividends (5.3% and 7.5%).
SCMP - my other pharma stock, this has recently been in top 25 list. I bought them at a great price and they are already up 27%.
FLS - I bought Flowserve last week at $47. Jubak had recommended them as one of his best ideas for 2009 and they were on the "list". Seemed like a good combo.
Well, that pretty much sums up the Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Speaking of ugly, I am watching the Cowboys/Eagles game right now... pretty ugly.
Happy New Year.
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2 comments:
Marsh,
Don't you think TRA is too much of a cyclical play and that it's inclusion on the list is due to the past earnings, and not in any way indicative of its future prospects? I'm not sure if you have guest access to the ValueInvestorsClub website, but there was a write up on TRA back in April suggesting shorting TRA stock because it's such a cyclical stock and its then current margins were 500% higher than normal. The write up basically argued that there's no way a Nitrogen fertilizer company that is highly cyclical should trade at anything more than about 8X EPS, which is probably not all the higher than where the stock's at now.
I just see this as one of those classic MFI stocks that exploded on the upside for whatever reason (cyclicality, etc) like a tech company's earnings after a new product or release, and then came crashing back down after the product ran its course, and is now reflecting a very high earning's yield.
Albert, you may very well be right. I bought them because they have a market cap of $1.7b, yet they own 75% of TNH, which also has a markey cap of $1.7b. So if you believe the TNH value, you are getting TRA for about 400m (and they have 680m in cash).
Jubak argues that we are in a long-term bull market in agriculture and that food prices may rise sharply again in 2009 as farmers plant less due to tight credit.
My final point is that Obama is from the midwest and I think he will look after farmers.
We'll see
MG
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