1. I started a Chinese Portfolio right after China announced their stimulus package (more than a month ago). While it certainly has not been "good", down 16%, it is "better" than having put your money in the Russell 3000, down 30% in the same stretch. 4 of the Chinese stocks are up nicely: ADY (a baby formula manufacturer that was unfairly tainted in recent recalls), TBV (a MFI stock), CSKI (an MFI stock that I own) and XIN (a real estate company I am considering buying).
2. My mechanical portfolio that I am running as a contest against Steve Alexander of Magic Diligence is beating the S&P 500 by 1.2 points (SDA is "winning" by 2.4 points. The interesting thing about my portfolio is that the 7 additions since Nov 21st are up ON AVERAGE by 32%! So there does seem to be some momentum.
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 3.97 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.00 | -9.1% | -34.8% | 25.8% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 5.00 | - | 136.37 | 2.00 | -1.6% | -33.3% | 31.7% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 2.14 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -78.6% | -32.7% | -45.9% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.50 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -65.0% | -32.7% | -32.4% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.25 | - | 135.62 | 2.00 | -55.5% | -32.9% | -22.6% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.95 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -54.3% | -30.7% | -23.6% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 1.03 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -72.2% | -30.7% | -41.4% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.28 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -36.1% | -30.7% | -5.4% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 13.84 | 0.08 | 131.36 | 1.36 | -28.4% | -31.2% | 2.8% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 1.58 | - | 132.08 | 1.36 | -42.3% | -31.6% | -10.7% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 3.11 | - | 132.08 | 1.36 | -65.4% | -31.6% | -33.8% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 10.40 | - | 132.08 | 1.36 | -40.3% | -31.6% | -8.7% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 11.57 | 0.75 | 136.89 | 1.36 | -37.1% | -34.0% | -3.1% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 13.23 | 0.54 | 136.89 | 1.36 | -7.8% | -34.0% | 26.2% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 3.41 | - | 136.89 | 1.36 | -35.4% | -34.0% | -1.4% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 23.02 | - | 133.38 | 1.36 | -44.0% | -32.3% | -11.7% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 7.53 | - | 133.38 | 1.36 | 16.4% | -32.3% | 48.6% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 2.45 | - | 138.48 | 1.36 | -51.3% | -34.8% | -16.5% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 2.83 | - | 139.60 | 1.36 | -54.8% | -35.3% | -19.5% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 15.80 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 1.36 | -51.3% | -35.0% | -16.4% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 7.04 | - | 138.90 | 1.36 | -1.0% | -35.0% | 34.0% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 39.71 | - | 138.90 | 1.36 | -8.6% | -35.0% | 26.3% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 6.66 | - | 137.64 | 1.36 | -27.7% | -34.4% | 6.7% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 3.05 | - | 137.64 | 1.36 | -30.2% | -34.4% | 4.2% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 16.40 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 1.36 | -36.1% | -35.6% | -0.5% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 3.20 | - | 126.31 | 0.69 | -30.7% | -29.0% | -1.7% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 13.14 | - | 126.31 | 0.69 | 18.8% | -29.0% | 47.8% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 35.50 | 0.80 | 126.31 | 0.69 | 13.4% | -29.0% | 42.4% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 8.00 | - | 125.48 | 0.69 | 65.3% | -28.5% | 93.8% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 33.19 | - | 126.16 | 0.69 | -45.2% | -28.9% | -16.3% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 8.60 | - | 129.37 | 0.69 | -21.8% | -30.7% | 8.9% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 5.44 | - | 129.37 | 0.69 | -56.2% | -30.7% | -25.5% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 49.13 | - | 129.37 | 0.69 | -63.5% | -30.7% | -32.8% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 9.15 | - | 129.37 | 0.69 | -42.6% | -30.7% | -11.9% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.36 | - | 124.42 | 0.69 | -47.8% | -27.9% | -19.9% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 9.63 | - | 126.09 | 0.69 | -53.4% | -28.9% | -24.6% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 12.35 | - | 124.12 | 0.69 | -25.5% | -27.7% | 2.3% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 3.20 | - | 120.85 | - | -61.4% | -26.4% | -35.0% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 2.77 | - | 120.85 | - | -36.2% | -26.4% | -9.8% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 15.42 | - | 120.85 | - | -45.7% | -26.4% | -19.4% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 11.37 | 9.70 | 1.25 | 88.50 | - | -3.7% | 0.6% | -4.2% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 11.35 | - | 88.50 | - | -22.2% | 0.6% | -22.7% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 3.39 | - | 93.21 | - | -7.6% | -4.5% | -3.1% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 21.10 | - | 96.83 | - | 18.7% | -8.1% | 26.8% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 4.69 | - | 96.83 | - | -36.6% | -8.1% | -28.5% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 3.50 | - | 96.83 | - | -17.5% | -8.1% | -9.4% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 17.27 | - | 93.86 | - | -14.4% | -5.2% | -9.2% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 9.84 | - | 93.86 | - | -27.6% | -5.2% | -22.5% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 5.03 | - | 79.52 | - | 110.5% | 11.9% | 98.6% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 15.31 | - | 79.52 | - | 46.5% | 11.9% | 34.6% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.27 | - | 79.52 | - | 35.1% | 11.9% | 23.2% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 1.44 | - | 79.52 | - | 19.0% | 11.9% | 7.1% |
| VCLK | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 7.15 | - | 90.09 | - | 15.9% | -1.2% | 17.1% |
| DIVX | 12/7/08 | 4.37 | 5.01 | - | 87.93 | - | 14.6% | 1.2% | 13.4% |
| MAXY | 12/7/08 | 5.80 | 7.82 | - | 87.93 | - | 34.8% | 1.2% | 33.6% |
| Totals | -21.5% | -22.7% | 1.2% | ||||||
| 44.% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | |||||||||
Finally I will mention that although my actual real life portfolio is still generally "sucking eggs" (a financial term) I have been gaining pretty significant ground of late on the bench mark portfolios and I am up over 30% off my lows. Stay tuned... maybe someday I'll actually post a chart/table again.
I am continuing to try to dial down the riskiness of my portfolio as I still want to retire. I bought LINE this week after seeing Stock Market guru Seth Klarman bought it. What is interesting about LINE is that they are an Oil & Gas play and have been thrown out with the proverbial bathwater as oil prices have crashed in the past six month but... read this from their earnings release:
At current production levels, the Company is 100% hedged for 2009, 2010 and 2011. For 2009, the Company's natural gas production is hedged at a weighted average price of $8.32 per Mcf and oil and NGL production at $102.21 per barrel. For 2010, the Company's natural gas production is hedged at a weighted average price of $8.05 per Mcf and oil and NGL production at $99.68 per barrel. The Company's natural gas production is hedged for the next four years and oil and NGL production is hedged for the next six years. These hedge positions help ensure cash flow and are detailed in Schedule 9 in this press release.
So they have locked in high oil and natural gas prices for at least the next 2 years! Why are they down 50% off their highs? They pay a high dividend and are the only Oil & Gas firm I can find that projects making more money in 2009 than 2008. SK owns about 8% of the company, so I am comfortable that he has done gthe homework that the balance sheet isn't too levered. And he was buying at $16-$19 while I got in under $13.
The final move on my portfolio (not MFI) is that I am moving some funds to follow "the moose". This was an interesting website pointed out by Randy on the MFI yahoo boards (Moosecalls).
Posts
3 comments:
hi marsh-
what are your thoughts on klarman's other buy - bbep?
also, what do you think of mfi pick - msb - an iron ore trust? they'll cut the dividend dramatically properly. but renaissance technologies is a pretty big holder in this perennial mfi stock and may be an infrastructure play.
also - nice blog!
the BBEP looks interesting, but it is too complicated for me to understand. Regarding MSB, I already have my iron ore play in FSUMF, which I like more because of their proximity to China.
MG
Merry Christmas Marsh, thanks for putting in the work to make this blog possible.
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