Saturday, November 01, 2008

My Mechanical Approach

My mechanical approach, which is where I add a stock every weekend if it is new to the top 25 list in the past year is down 20.3%, but is beating the S&P 500 by 2.9%. As a further benchmark, the MagicDiligence portfolio is beating the S&P by 3.42% and is down 20.8% (we're extremely similar).

Here are my stocks and how they're doing. You'll note a couple small pharma, QCOR and SLXP are doing the best.

Symbol Date Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
DTPI 2/2/08 4.75 3.98 - 139.58 2.00 -16.2% -29.2% 13.0%
AIRV 2/13/08 5.08 4.39 - 136.37 2.00 -13.6% -27.5% 13.9%
CITP 2/16/08 9.98 6.08 - 135.14 2.00 -39.1% -26.9% -12.2%
PRXI 2/16/08 4.29 1.03 - 135.14 2.00 -76.0% -26.9% -49.1%
CAST 2/23/08 5.06 2.40 - 135.62 2.00 -52.6% -27.1% -25.4%
GSB 3/12/08 2.08 0.97 - 131.36 2.00 -53.4% -24.8% -28.6%
IGC 3/12/08 3.70 3.15 - 131.36 2.00 -14.9% -24.8% 9.9%
LGTY 3/12/08 6.70 5.30 - 131.36 2.00 -20.9% -24.8% 3.9%
MRX 3/12/08 19.45 14.27 0.08 131.36 1.36 -26.2% -25.3% -1.0%
DEPO 3/22/08 2.74 2.16 - 132.08 1.36 -21.2% -25.7% 4.5%
NVTL 3/22/08 8.98 5.21 - 132.08 1.36 -42.0% -25.7% -16.3%
VRGY 3/22/08 17.42 14.50 - 132.08 1.36 -16.8% -25.7% 8.9%
DLX 4/6/08 19.58 12.16 0.50 136.89 1.36 -35.3% -28.3% -7.1%
NTRI 4/6/08 14.94 14.15 0.18 136.89 1.36 -4.1% -28.3% 24.2%
IUSA 4/6/08 5.28 4.46 - 136.89 1.36 -15.5% -28.3% 12.7%
LRCX 4/11/08 41.08 22.36 - 133.38 1.36 -45.6% -26.4% -19.2%
SLXP 4/11/08 6.47 9.20 - 133.38 1.36 42.2% -26.4% 68.6%
CHRD 4/19/08 5.03 3.32 - 138.48 1.36 -34.0% -29.1% -4.9%
QXM 4/26/08 6.26 2.63 - 139.60 1.36 -58.0% -29.7% -28.3%
MDP 5/9/08 33.79 19.37 0.43 138.90 1.36 -41.4% -29.3% -12.1%
OMPI 5/9/08 7.11 8.32 - 138.90 1.36 17.0% -29.3% 46.3%
PPD 5/9/08 43.45 39.48 - 138.90 1.36 -9.1% -29.3% 20.2%
ELNK 5/25/08 9.21 6.90 - 137.64 1.36 -25.1% -28.7% 3.6%
FTAR.ob 5/25/08 4.37 2.95 - 137.64 1.36 -32.5% -28.7% -3.8%
CHKE 5/31/08 27.25 20.65 0.50 140.35 1.36 -22.4% -30.0% 7.7%
APKT 7/5/08 4.62 4.74 - 126.31 0.69 2.6% -22.8% 25.4%
CSKI 7/5/08 11.06 8.98 - 126.31 0.69 -18.8% -22.8% 4.0%
VALU 7/5/08 32.00 38.55 0.40 126.31 0.69 21.7% -22.8% 44.5%
QCOR 7/26/08 4.84 7.74 - 125.48 0.69 59.9% -22.3% 82.2%
MSTR 8/1/08 60.56 39.37 - 126.16 0.69 -35.0% -22.7% -12.3%
NVDA 8/8/08 11.00 8.76 - 129.37 0.69 -20.4% -24.6% 4.3%
SWIR 8/8/08 12.41 8.75 - 129.37 0.69 -29.5% -24.6% -4.9%
CF 8/8/08 134.65 64.19 - 129.37 0.69 -52.3% -24.6% -27.7%
SIGM 8/8/08 15.93 11.09 - 129.37 0.69 -30.4% -24.6% -5.8%
EGMI.OB 9/5/08 0.69 0.36 - 124.42 0.69 -47.8% -21.6% -26.2%
KHD 9/15/08 20.68 17.08 - 126.09 0.69 -17.4% -22.7% 5.3%
TTWO 9/22/08 16.57 11.86 - 124.12 0.69 -28.4% -21.4% -7.0%
SCMP 9/29/08 8.29 8.23 - 120.85 - -0.7% -19.9% 19.2%
DTLK 9/29/08 4.34 3.08 - 120.85 - -29.0% -19.9% -9.2%
TRA 9/29/08 28.42 21.99 - 120.85 - -22.6% -19.9% -2.7%
MSB 10/10/08 11.37 13.44 1.00 88.50 - 27.0% 9.4% 17.6%
UEPS 10/10/08 14.58 14.00 - 88.50 - -4.0% 9.4% -13.4%
TSCM 10/17/08 3.67 3.94 - 93.21 - 7.4% 3.9% 3.5%
















Totals -20.3% -23.3% 2.9%
57.9% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark




S&P C

96.83






Tomorrow I will be adding two new stocks. This is the time of the quarter when stocks tend to get added more frequently as it is the heart of earnings season, and stocks are falling off the lists for short stretches and there is (if it is possible) more volatility for individual stocks than normal.

The first stock is CTCM. I have to confess that I have never heard of these guys, although they have over $1b in market cap. WOW, they offer television programming in Russia! Far out! I mean it, far out! They have dropped from over $30 to under $8 in the recent bloodletting. Hey their mailing address is even in Moscow. Might serve as a nice counter-balance to my Chinese stocks (which I still think will work, as a "recession" in China is growth slowing to 7%). I took a quick look at them, not that I have spare cash right now, but I am not tempted by Russian broadcasting plays.

PRGX is the 2nd new addition. I also have not heard of them. They are smaller cap (under $100m). Kind of an interesting profile, they provide recovery audit services... helping business recognize when they've been over-charged. I suppose if they're good at their job, they pay for themselves. Wait, here is a red flag! They have dropped 75% in past year from over $16 to around $4. But they recently lost a large medicare account. I've been down this road before and these smallish companies that are reliant on a couple larger accounts can really be rocky.

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