Newest MFI Select Tranche

Newest MFI Select Tranche

Well, I bought my five "new" stocks for the November 2018 MFI tranche.  First day was good... just 364 to go.

I did go a bit tech-heavy, I just felt that tech names have sold off a ridiculous amount... I suppose because of perceived weakness in Apple.  We shall see how it works out.  Here are the names I considered and didn't pick... I will track them as well over the upcoming year:  AEIS, FTSI, DLX, CASA and SHI.

My final number on my expiring tranche was -0.6%.  Pretty depressing.  But my 2nd tranche in 2018 to expire in the red.  No one said it was easy.

Looking back, the 5 stocks I rejected a year ago were also slightly negative (NTES, FOXA, AGX, AMGN and DLX).  AGX, DLX and NTES were all down by 20%+.

Ironically, the best thing to have done would have been to just keep the 5 stocks that expired in November 2017.  They went up 13% (and they were up 42% for the year I held them!).  ATHM, CA, MPAA, RHI and AMGN.  CA was big winner, getting bought out and rising 40%.

Ok, enough look backs.  Here are my five new picks and how they fared today post my buying them around 10 am.

11/15/2018	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AGX	$43.15	$43.94	$0.00	1.8%	1.7%
DXC	$62.00	$62.27	$0.00	0.4%	1.7%
MU	$38.49	$39.91	$0.00	3.7%	1.7%
SGH	$29.67	$29.79	$0.00	0.4%	1.7%
WDC	$44.92	$46.73	$0.00	4.0%	1.7%
Totals				2.1%	1.7%

Fingers crossed!

Final Day of 11/15/17 MFI Select Tranche

Final Day of 11/15/17 MFI Select Tranche

An MFI tranche is not a sprint (as they say).  It is a marathon.  And the most recent marathon comes to a close at end of today.  I am sad to report that if the picture on the left are the runners... we're the one crawling to the finish line.

Just 1 1/2 months ago, when I published my end of August report, this tranche was up 16.6%, leading the Russell 3000... which was 14.9%.

Fast forward to today.

11/15/2017	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
MSGN	$16.67	$25.91	$0.00	55.4%	7.2%
CELG	$100.60	$70.24	$0.00	-30.2%	7.2%
EVC	$5.78	$3.40	$0.20	-37.7%	7.2%
SIMO	$46.88	$35.22	$1.20	-22.3%	7.2%
VIAB	$24.41	$32.05	$0.80	34.6%	7.2%
Totals				0.0%	7.2%

Shocking... right?  Looks like I'll have two stinkers.  Here is how the individual stocks have done since end of August.

Stock	August	Current	Dividend	Change
MSGN	25.08	25.91	-	3.3%
CELG	94.24	70.24	-	-25.5%
EVC	5.13	3.40	0.05	-32.7%
SIMO	58.95	35.22	0.30	-39.7%
VIAB	29.93	32.05	0.20	7.8%

Pardon me while I puke!  Sad to report, this is kind of my overall story since the end of August.  Although it has been more on my non-MFI side than MFI (actually MFI Formula is doing great).

I will be buying 5 new names tomorrow.  I'll need to look at EVC to see if their sell-off was warranted.  I suspect I'll definitely sell all the other names.  Man, this sucks.

Top 200 List 11/3/18

Top 200 List 11/3/18

Well, I felt like running a top 200 list this weekend.  I only have ten days to go until I have to pick 5 new stocks and I wanted a second list to look at as the markets have been going through a lot of turmoil lately.

This is my version of the official magic formula screener from Joel Greenblatt's book.  I believe I come very close to matching the actual calculations.  When I first developed this, the official screen gave more earnings yield and ROIC data - so that is a large reason for confidence.

The formula details can be found in my blog post "The Calculation" if you want to see more.  I had a lot of help developing it from people on the Yahoo MFI board back in the day.  Also Randy Harmelink, of SMF fame, helped me automate workbook once the formulae were all working well.

I do give more info than official site.  I use Fidelity for data source and they use Compustat, so that matches what official website uses.  I do provide earnings yield and ROIC.  I also typically have more names as I do not throw out as many non-US firms and I keep some insurers and investment firms.

Ticker	Rank	Stock Price	Market Cap	Earnings Yield	ROIC	Dividend Yield
FNJN	1	3.83	135	55%	20682%	0.00%
IMMR	2	10.19	314	25%	1813%	0.00%
NHTC	3	23.23	263	23%	3713%	2.34%
XOMA	4	12.79	107	22%	9469%	0.00%
NKTR	5	39.05	7,118	17%	2098%	0.00%
EVC	6	5.14	463	53%	296%	3.88%
PTN	7	0.92	194	16%	12963%	0.00%
ACOR	8	19.46	918	21%	335%	0.00%
UIS	9	18.19	935	23%	235%	0.00%
AGX	10	44.21	693	16%	331%	1.70%
BPT	11	31.41	672	13%	42889%	13.48%
QTRH	12	1.28	152	24%	173%	3.05%
CMCM	13	8.69	1,262	12%	808%	0.00%
CJREF	14	3.95	831	16%	207%	#VALUE!
MSB	15	27.26	358	12%	472%	#VALUE!
MOH	16	123.00	8,204	13%	329%	0.00%
IDCC	17	74.31	2,646	11%	2120%	1.88%
YY	18	68.61	4,380	14%	205%	0.00%
HRB	19	27.13	5,634	12%	333%	3.59%
DLX	20	49.98	2,339	12%	336%	2.41%
EGY	21	1.87	112	24%	118%	0.00%
UTHR	22	114.64	5,044	20%	123%	0.00%
QIWI	23	13.08	795	11%	432%	0.00%
BPI	24	9.51	260	13%	188%	0.00%
LEXEA	25	43.14	2,459	16%	126%	0.00%
SJT	26	5.15	240	11%	492%	10.53%
EGOV	27	14.00	932	11%	411%	2.29%
INVA	28	15.88	1,800	11%	369%	0.00%
FTSI	29	13.06	1,427	24%	97%	0.00%
SRNE	30	3.68	370	12%	219%	0.00%
SQBG	31	1.25	80	13%	154%	0.00%
KLAC	32	93.29	14,561	12%	205%	2.87%
AEIS	33	46.87	1,837	14%	124%	0.00%
ESIO	34	29.01	1,043	14%	126%	0.00%
MSGN	35	25.52	1,933	11%	278%	0.00%
AMAT	36	35.27	35,446	13%	121%	1.70%
WU	37	17.91	8,042	10%	416%	4.17%
DHX	38	1.82	92	15%	108%	0.00%
LRCX	39	151.51	25,049	13%	110%	2.13%
VIAB	40	31.67	12,773	12%	121%	2.53%
AVP	41	1.92	849	19%	80%	0.00%
ALSN	42	44.64	5,870	11%	163%	1.33%
CASA	43	14.64	1,374	10%	224%	0.00%
VEC	44	27.28	311	13%	106%	0.00%
THO	45	74.74	3,952	17%	78%	2.01%
STX	46	44.27	12,927	12%	109%	0.00%
TGS	47	15.55	2,471	13%	93%	3.32%
WDC	48	47.74	14,227	18%	76%	4.20%
VIA	49	35.86	14,462	11%	121%	2.23%
CRTO	50	22.07	1,515	14%	85%	0.00%
SP	51	31.24	707	10%	295%	0.00%
UEPS	52	7.00	398	20%	71%	0.00%
LEE	53	2.76	155	14%	85%	0.00%
IPG	54	22.80	8,856	10%	176%	3.56%
PBT	55	7.40	345	9%	14752%	8.90%
PETS	56	28.37	582	11%	126%	3.42%
HSII	57	34.91	677	10%	161%	1.85%
ZAGG	58	12.63	362	14%	80%	0.00%
PFMT	59	1.73	89	19%	69%	0.00%
DXC	60	70.63	20,433	12%	93%	1.05%
KLIC	61	21.77	1,530	20%	64%	1.11%
OMC	62	74.69	16,872	9%	294%	3.21%
GPP	63	14.90	474	11%	126%	12.71%
GME	64	15.61	1,594	21%	61%	9.73%
CELG	65	74.19	53,395	9%	356%	0.00%
TPR	66	42.81	143	69%	63%	0.00%
BKE	67	21.41	1,040	16%	65%	4.66%
SGH	68	31.01	722	19%	62%	0.00%
SHI	69	45.73	4,951	33%	56%	10.40%
AMCX	70	58.98	3,444	12%	84%	0.00%
MCFT	71	31.11	582	9%	262%	0.00%
CO	72	6.92	769	30%	56%	1.16%
HCC	73	27.22	1,445	24%	56%	0.73%
HPQ	74	24.63	39,851	9%	202%	2.28%
MKSI	75	78.24	4,300	13%	72%	0.98%
ESRX	76	96.74	54,939	8%	1151%	0.00%
TVTY	77	34.78	1,505	8%	1011%	0.00%
NVMI	78	24.57	707	10%	103%	0.00%
JILL	79	5.38	241	16%	59%	0.00%
CECO	80	13.42	963	9%	234%	0.00%
MTOR	81	16.89	1,517	16%	60%	0.00%
MU	82	40.32	49,029	32%	53%	0.00%
LPX	83	23.22	3,395	24%	53%	1.68%
MAN	84	79.27	5,153	15%	58%	2.45%
NANO	85	33.50	820	12%	72%	0.00%
CVS	86	73.09	74,406	11%	84%	2.75%
SNE	87	53.66	69,574	10%	113%	0.46%
ICHR	88	19.41	507	13%	62%	0.00%
LEA	89	138.87	9,147	17%	54%	1.89%
TSQ	90	7.04	194	12%	67%	3.19%
TARO	91	99.56	3,909	12%	69%	0.00%
TGNA	92	12.15	2,631	10%	98%	2.30%
MIK	93	16.47	2,935	12%	69%	0.00%
BIIB	94	312.70	63,134	9%	122%	0.00%
WGO	95	29.15	926	13%	58%	1.37%
SBR	96	36.52	532	7%	19712%	24.04%
FUJHY	97	13.32	20,425	23%	49%	4.86%
TUSK	98	26.96	1,215	30%	47%	0.45%
MD	99	39.24	3,585	8%	166%	0.00%
VGR	100	13.17	1,839	8%	254%	11.71%
DFIN	101	15.82	538	11%	68%	0.00%
AMGN	102	187.06	121,402	8%	177%	2.74%
OMAB	103	43.02	2,116	9%	136%	3.79%
BBY	104	71.89	20,395	10%	82%	2.34%
STRL	105	11.96	324	15%	52%	0.00%
OSB	106	28.29	2,467	27%	43%	17.08%
WTW	107	48.13	3,385	7%	746%	0.00%
EXEL	108	17.41	5,438	8%	309%	0.00%
AET	109	198.21	65,449	7%	900%	1.00%
SDI	110	16.98	282	10%	69%	0.00%
CBS	111	56.17	21,288	10%	83%	0.00%
PBH	112	37.73	1,968	8%	157%	0.00%
SEDG	113	37.75	1,823	10%	79%	0.00%
KRO	114	15.00	1,739	25%	41%	4.40%
MO	115	63.67	119,891	7%	509%	4.48%
MCK	116	125.41	24,957	9%	107%	1.12%
GENC	117	11.70	172	19%	43%	0.00%
HUM	118	323.00	44,760	8%	197%	0.58%
KORS	119	58.29	8,883	9%	84%	0.00%
CERC	120	4.41	142	7%	5551%	0.00%
ANTM	121	268.00	71,127	8%	219%	1.11%
ENTA	122	79.88	1,679	8%	177%	0.00%
EME	123	72.89	4,267	9%	76%	0.44%
UCTT	124	11.52	453	26%	39%	0.00%
FL	125	48.80	5,714	15%	44%	2.75%
ODP	126	2.68	1,514	15%	43%	3.72%
SWKS	127	85.27	15,587	9%	74%	1.58%
CKHUY	128	10.25	39,541	14%	45%	3.65%
CSVI	129	51.30	715	8%	129%	2.52%
LFVN	130	11.29	171	8%	156%	0.00%
YUM	131	86.90	28,243	7%	192%	1.58%
SBH	132	18.53	2,255	12%	52%	0.00%
TNET	133	47.32	3,435	7%	329%	0.00%
MBUU	134	42.39	878	8%	146%	0.68%
LB	135	33.85	9,444	11%	53%	7.11%
MAS	136	31.32	9,584	10%	62%	1.41%
KFY	137	47.00	2,603	9%	80%	0.87%
PBI	138	8.09	1,524	9%	68%	9.27%
NTRI	139	37.57	1,111	7%	221%	2.46%
CRT	140	14.86	89	8%	89%	9.10%
ABC	141	88.57	19,553	8%	102%	1.72%
KNMCY	142	41.14	5,650	10%	63%	1.48%
ATLKY	143	25.20	30,618	8%	120%	6.77%
SYX	144	30.91	1,171	8%	117%	1.38%
VVV	145	20.40	3,998	9%	69%	1.48%
RHI	146	62.29	7,565	8%	115%	1.76%
GHC	147	612.16	3,267	8%	90%	0.87%
CC	148	34.37	6,251	16%	38%	1.79%
NVR	149	2,258.00	9,158	11%	52%	0.00%
TEN	150	35.82	1,841	18%	37%	2.80%
ROCK	151	32.86	1,070	10%	54%	0.00%
NLS	152	12.86	391	9%	63%	0.00%
OSK	153	64.73	4,774	13%	41%	1.52%
GPS	154	27.91	10,885	13%	40%	0.00%
MGLN	155	67.32	1,710	8%	81%	0.00%
COHR	156	135.07	3,360	12%	44%	0.00%
NATH	157	72.01	304	7%	252%	0.69%
USNA	158	112.59	2,815	7%	193%	0.00%
DMLP	159	17.81	575	9%	68%	9.76%
LCI	160	4.24	158	20%	35%	0.00%
ORCL	161	48.83	195,271	7%	238%	1.53%
GIB	162	61.30	17,626	7%	256%	0.00%
TER	163	36.11	6,879	8%	96%	0.94%
BTI	164	43.51	99,681	7%	160%	6.02%
CLF	165	10.73	3,328	13%	40%	0.47%
MOMO	166	35.41	7,491	7%	942%	0.00%
IBM	167	115.67	105,861	9%	60%	5.30%
MMS	168	63.87	4,211	8%	93%	0.28%
CDK	169	57.51	7,614	7%	329%	1.03%
DLPH	170	21.91	1,951	19%	34%	0.00%
ALV	171	86.77	7,584	11%	44%	2.80%
HOLI	172	19.62	1,202	15%	36%	0.91%
JCOM	173	71.60	3,524	7%	310%	2.29%
YRD	174	17.80	1,101	25%	32%	1.57%
AYI	175	131.01	5,254	9%	68%	0.40%
JOUT	176	75.88	759	10%	49%	0.63%
RTN	177	181.55	51,923	8%	97%	0.00%
CTSH	178	69.50	40,310	8%	96%	0.00%
KBAL	179	16.55	616	9%	57%	1.75%
XRX	180	28.32	7,195	10%	48%	3.53%
FCN	181	67.30	2,608	9%	66%	0.00%
MEI	182	30.28	1,140	13%	37%	1.45%
ATEYY	183	20.94	4,155	10%	49%	3.12%
VHI	184	2.36	807	18%	33%	3.41%
EBF	185	19.93	512	10%	46%	4.26%
PPC	186	18.73	4,665	14%	35%	0.00%
RTEC	187	21.28	690	12%	40%	0.00%
SGU	188	9.63	519	10%	51%	4.79%
BLBD	189	19.03	543	7%	103%	0.00%
TLYS	190	16.68	495	10%	47%	0.00%
PM	191	88.75	138,006	7%	138%	4.98%
SNA	192	157.26	9,016	9%	53%	2.10%
CSCO	193	45.48	214,757	6%	425%	2.80%
SERV	194	42.88	5,823	7%	231%	0.00%
TXN	195	95.06	94,014	7%	115%	2.77%
ACCO	196	8.95	967	12%	39%	2.00%
REGI	197	28.69	1,207	19%	31%	0.00%
ATTO	198	6.44	480	12%	38%	#VALUE!
PNR	199	41.63	7,314	7%	112%	2.52%
CAH	200	51.44	15,946	9%	59%	3.64%

Here is my comparison against the official top 50

Ticker	Mkt Cap	Date	My Ranking	Price	EY	ROIC
ACOR	918	2-Nov	8	19.46	21%	335%
AEIS	1,827	2-Nov	33	46.87	14%	124%
ALSN	5,858	2-Nov	42	44.64	11%	163%
AMCX	3,354	2-Nov	70	58.98	12%	84%
AMAT	34,670	2-Nov	36	35.27	13%	121%
AGX	688	2-Nov	10	44.21	16%	331%
AVP	849	2-Nov	41	1.92	19%	80%
HRB	5,575	2-Nov	19	27.13	12%	333%
BPT	672	2-Nov	11	31.41	13%	42889%
CECO	936	2-Nov	80	13.42	9%	234%
CASA	1,262	2-Nov	43	14.64	10%	224%
CELG	51,851	2-Nov	65	74.19	9%	356%
CJREF	837	2-Nov	14	3.95	16%	207%
DLX	2,314	2-Nov	20	49.98	12%	336%
DXC	19,918	2-Nov	60	70.63	12%	93%
EVC	457	2-Nov	6	5.14	53%	296%
ESRX	54,523	2-Nov	76	96.74	8%	1151%
FTSI	1,427	2-Nov	29	13.06	24%	97%
GME	1,591	2-Nov	64	15.61	21%	61%
HSII	662	2-Nov	57	34.91	10%	161%
HPQ	38,975	2-Nov	74	24.63	9%	202%
IDT	172	2-Nov	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
IMMR	313	2-Nov	2	10.19	25%	1813%
INVA	1,801	2-Nov	28	15.88	11%	369%
IDCC	2,575	2-Nov	17	74.31	11%	2120%
IPG	8,763	2-Nov	54	22.80	10%	176%
KLAC	14,481	2-Nov	32	93.29	12%	205%
LRCX	24,309	2-Nov	39	151.51	13%	110%
LEE	158	2-Nov	53	2.76	14%	85%
MCFT	581	2-Nov	71	31.11	9%	262%
MSB	358	2-Nov	15	27.26	12%	472%
MSGN	1,910	2-Nov	35	25.52	11%	278%
NHTC	264	2-Nov	3	23.23	23%	3713%
NKTR	6,733	2-Nov	5	39.05	17%	2098%
EGOV	918	2-Nov	27	14.00	11%	411%
OMC	16,790	2-Nov	62	74.69	9%	294%
PTN	185	2-Nov	7	0.92	16%	12963%
PETS	587	2-Nov	56	28.37	11%	126%
STX	12,705	2-Nov	46	44.27	12%	109%
SRNE	428	2-Nov	30	3.68	12%	219%
SP	710	2-Nov	51	31.24	10%	295%
THO	3,938	2-Nov	45	74.74	17%	78%
TVTY	1,390	2-Nov	77	34.78	8%	1011%
TUP	1,897	2-Nov	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A	#N/A
UIS	930	2-Nov	9	18.19	23%	235%
UTHR	5,392	2-Nov	22	114.64	20%	123%
VEC	307	2-Nov	44	27.28	13%	106%
VIAB	12,766	2-Nov	40	31.67	12%	121%
WDC	13,940	2-Nov	48	47.74	18%	76%
ZAGG	356	2-Nov	58	12.63	14%	80%

So a couple snafus this run.    I only had IDT at about #370.  I will take a deeper dive this week and see if I see an issue (perhaps some special income defined differently).

Then TUP is clearly a stock that should be on the list.  I suspect this is timing as my Fidelity data base had n/a for some balance sheet items like A/R so it was dropped from my calc.  I expect Fidelity will fill those items in next week or so.