September was a very good (great?). I am also officially closing my Oct 1st 2016 Formula tranche. I will buy 5 new stocks on Monday. Hopefully this weekend, I will write a post on the five new names (picked by formula/random number generator).
It will be a busy weekend. I am running a 5K in Providence RI. I need to close out a MFI tracking portfolio and create a new one.
I also want to change the way I am tracking some of my portfolios. I usually make that sort of change at year-end, but will do at end of Q3 as with my retirement (and the selling of some company stock), I now have a lot more invested in my active investing.
You have found your way to the MFI Diary, a blog where I let readers know my thoughts and performance on real life, real dollar Magic Formula Portfolios (based of course on "The Little Book The Beats The Market" by Joel Greenblatt. I also spend some effort tracking hypothetical portfolios based on downloads from the official website going back to January 2006.
Of course, I have to have a disclaimer - I am just a guy with a spreadsheet and not a stock advisor. You should do your own due diligence before acting on anything you read here.
Any opinions you read are my own unless they end up being really bad.
The Past Week
Last was pretty solid for me. I did have one of my Misc names (BYBK) get bought for a 40%+ premium, so that certainly helped. And the promise/perfume of tax reform keeps stocks going up like sailors drawn to the singing of harpies. I do not really care about individual taxes or estate taxes. But I have very strong opinions about corporate tax rates as my belief is our high US tax rates hurts our competitiveness abroad. They also cause business to either leave US (through inversions) or form in more tax friendly jurisdictions. THIS HAPPENS ALL THE TIME. I have sat on corporate boards, I have been through many merger and acquisition discussions, I have been around when new companies are formed; and being efficient in taxes is ALWAYS near the top of the list of discussion points.
Ok, I feel better. I have said my piece. Here is where I stand ytd, through q3:
Component | YTD |
Overall | +13.51% |
MFI Select | +24.22% |
MFI Formula | +9.56% |
Miscellaneous | +7.00% |
Dividend | +13.83% |
R3K | +13.63% |
MFI Index | +4.28% |
So my two MFI components are up 24.2% and 9.6% - that is with a cash component during the year. In aggregate they are beating the R3K index of 13.6%, so that is excellent. The MFI Index has rallied, now at 4.3%. All-in-all I am at 13.5% - I am extremely pleased with that as I have added quite a bit this year to bond-type investments as I retired.
Once a quarter or so, I like to show how the MFI Index (recall this is my creation, a basket of 50 MFI stocks reconstituted once a year) has done year by year versus benchmark:
Annual | Inception to Date | |||
Year | Russell | MFI | Russell ITD | MFI ITD |
2006 | 11.40% | 15.03% | 11.40% | 15.03% |
2007 | 4.09% | -6.69% | 15.96% | 7.34% |
2008 | -37.05% | -37.97% | -27.00% | -33.42% |
2009 | 32.51% | 45.18% | -3.27% | -3.34% |
2010 | 18.38% | 22.77% | 14.50% | 18.67% |
2011 | -0.56% | -10.47% | 13.87% | 6.25% |
2012 | 16.43% | 9.70% | 32.57% | 16.56% |
2013 | 33.01% | 51.70% | 76.34% | 76.82% |
2014 | 12.26% | 12.07% | 97.95% | 98.15% |
2015 | 0.38% | -8.95% | 98.33% | 89.37% |
2016 | 12.50% | 13.19% | 110.62% | 101.16% |
2017 | 13.63% | 4.28% | 125.70% | 105.49% |
Clearly 2017 is not so hot. Over all the years, MFI is trailing by about 20 percentage points. That is all from the past three years, as inception to date, MFI was leading (ever so slightly) at the end of 2014.
MFI Select
This is my MFI portfolio that I rebooted in August 2012. I had actually "quit" MFI for about a year as my results had been subpar. I went back and restudied all my data and have done much better since. The "trick" to MFI (IMHO) is to avoid as many "stinker" stocks as you can (those that drop 30% or more in a year). Over the years, about 14% of stocks from the screens have been stinkers. In most cases, a stinker is a stock where the earnings in the past 12 months is a poor indicator of future earnings.
In my MFI Select portfolio (4 tranches of 5 stocks apiece held for a year), I allow myself free form on what stocks I pick. So some are from official screens, but others are from my own screen.
Here is how MFI Select has done, month by month, assuming you started with $100,000 spread over the 4 tranches and just rolled over funds as each tranche hits one year anniversary date:
Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
1/1/2016 | 63.33% | 209,514 | 146,186 |
2/1/2016 | 49.49% | 187,428 | 137,934 |
3/1/2016 | 56.48% | 194,415 | 137,934 |
4/1/2016 | 47.34% | 195,770 | 148,430 |
5/1/2016 | 46.38% | 194,301 | 147,923 |
6/1/2016 | 51.44% | 201,999 | 150,558 |
7/1/2016 | 50.41% | 201,092 | 150,680 |
8/1/2016 | 52.72% | 207,223 | 154,501 |
9/1/2016 | 67.04% | 222,481 | 155,446 |
10/1/2016 | 42.98% | 198,563 | 155,582 |
11/1/2016 | 41.86% | 195,726 | 153,863 |
12/1/2016 | 45.92% | 202,775 | 156,859 |
1/1/2017 | 45.60% | 209,503 | 163,936 |
2/1/2017 | 45.20% | 212,330 | 167,146 |
3/1/2017 | 48.80% | 222,583 | 173,829 |
4/1/2017 | 55.70% | 229,473 | 173,735 |
5/1/2017 | 55.80% | 231,497 | 175,712 |
6/1/2017 | 53.40% | 230,599 | 177,203 |
7/1/2017 | 60.28% | 239,060 | 178,782 |
8/1/2017 | 57.76% | 239,924 | 182,163 |
9/1/2017 | 68.85% | 251,265 | 182,419 |
Current | 75.60% | 262,489 | 186,886 |
Pretty much a rout as the LBTBTSM saw in their backtesting. So this portfolio is doing very well, and has been en fuego since 8/1. Really since 11/1/16 (up 34%), which suggests Trump has helped this portfolio.
Here are the 4 tranches:
11/15/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
MPAA | $26.55 | $29.46 | $0.00 | 11.0% | 17.8% |
ATHM | $22.61 | $60.08 | $0.00 | 165.7% | 17.8% |
AMGN | $145.14 | $186.45 | $3.15 | 30.6% | 17.8% |
RHI | $43.23 | $50.34 | $0.94 | 18.6% | 17.8% |
CA | $31.11 | $33.38 | $0.77 | 9.8% | 17.8% |
Totals | 47.1% | 17.8% | |||
2/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
AKRX | $19.10 | $33.19 | $0.00 | 73.8% | 11.6% |
YY | $41.08 | $86.78 | $0.00 | 111.2% | 11.6% |
KLAC | $85.11 | $106.00 | $1.67 | 26.5% | 11.6% |
WNC | $17.65 | $22.82 | $0.06 | 29.6% | 11.6% |
RGR | $52.75 | $51.70 | $1.15 | 0.2% | 11.6% |
Totals | 48.3% | 11.6% | |||
5/6/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
WSTC | $24.15 | $23.47 | $0.00 | -2.8% | 5.9% |
TGNA | $25.75 | $22.20 | $0.14 | -13.2% | 5.9% |
TIME | $15.05 | $13.50 | $0.04 | -10.0% | 5.9% |
MSGN | $23.55 | $21.20 | $0.00 | -10.0% | 5.9% |
QCOM | $54.93 | $51.84 | $1.14 | -3.5% | 5.9% |
Totals | -7.9% | 5.9% | |||
8/15/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
GHC | $591.10 | $585.10 | $0.00 | -1.0% | 3.0% |
ICHR | $19.80 | $26.80 | $0.00 | 35.4% | 3.0% |
MD | $43.00 | $43.12 | $0.00 | 0.3% | 3.0% |
SIMO | $43.05 | $48.03 | $0.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% |
RHI | $44.15 | $50.34 | $0.24 | 14.6% | 3.0% |
Totals | 12.1% | 3.0% |
Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
Current Tranche | 12.1% | 47.1% | 48.3% | -7.9% | 24.7% |
Previous Tranche | -0.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 19.1% | 15.5% |
Tranche -2 | 2.8% | 69.4% | -14.3% | -25.2% | 8.2% |
Tranche -3 | 11.2% | 14.2% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 13.0% |
Tranche -4 | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.1% |
Tranche -5 | 14.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.5% |
MFI Overall Gain | 106.7% | 342.2% | 172.1% | 29.0% | 162.5% |
Current Balance | 51,677 | 110,544 | 68,019 | 32,249 | 262,489 |
R3K Current Tranche | 3.0% | 17.8% | 11.6% | 5.9% | 9.6% |
R3K Overall Gain | 97.3% | 100.7% | 80.6% | 68.9% | 86.9% |
R3K Balance | 49,334 | 50,180 | 45,142 | 42,230 | 186,886 |
Annualized IRR | 15.2% | 35.6% | 23.9% | 5.9% | 20.2% |
All of these except May 6th are doing very well. Those were just 5 bad picks. But note that of my 20 picks here, no stinkers (yet). Also, my annualized IRR just topped 20! woo-hoo. Here is how the stocks fared in past week:
Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
ATHM | 64.17 | 60.08 | - | -6.4% |
RHI | 48.60 | 50.34 | - | 3.6% |
YY | 80.52 | 86.78 | - | 7.8% |
AKRX | 33.06 | 33.19 | - | 0.4% |
AMGN | 185.76 | 186.45 | - | 0.4% |
CA | 32.68 | 33.38 | - | 2.1% |
ICHR | 24.69 | 26.80 | - | 8.5% |
WNC | 21.29 | 22.82 | - | 7.2% |
SIMO | 45.00 | 48.03 | - | 6.7% |
MPAA | 28.01 | 29.46 | - | 5.2% |
MD | 42.14 | 43.12 | - | 2.3% |
GHC | 567.55 | 585.10 | - | 3.1% |
WSTC | 23.51 | 23.47 | - | -0.2% |
QCOM | 52.09 | 51.84 | - | -0.5% |
KLAC | 100.59 | 106.00 | - | 5.4% |
MSGN | 20.80 | 21.20 | - | 1.9% |
TGNA | 21.60 | 22.20 | - | 2.8% |
RGR | 51.00 | 51.70 | 1.4% | |
TIME | 12.55 | 13.50 | 7.6% |
That is an unbelievable week! Up about 2.5%. My semi names, ICHR, KLAC and SIMO were all boosted by a great ER by MU. ATHM was the one downer as key management left.
MFI Formula
I started this approach 3 years ago in October 2014. It was based on my observation that dividend-paying MFI stocks have done much better that non dividend paying MFI stocks. So this approach picks 5 stocks with a 2.4% yield or better randomly from official screen 4 times a year and holds for a year.
While it worked great in back testing, my real money results have been lukewarm. Actually making a bit of a comeback, but I still have work to do. Today is actually the last Day for my October 2016 tranche. Here is month by month:
Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
12/1/2015 | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
1/1/2016 | -3.36% | 96,830 | 100,012 |
2/1/2016 | -0.72% | 93,797 | 94,367 |
3/1/2016 | 4.07% | 98,588 | 94,367 |
4/1/2016 | 0.34% | 102,371 | 101,548 |
5/1/2016 | -1.91% | 99,774 | 101,200 |
6/1/2016 | -0.42% | 103,145 | 103,568 |
7/1/2016 | -0.19% | 103,022 | 103,216 |
8/1/2016 | 2.56% | 109,419 | 106,857 |
9/1/2016 | -0.34% | 106,704 | 107,048 |
10/1/2016 | -0.85% | 106,377 | 107,230 |
11/1/2016 | 0.42% | 105,421 | 105,003 |
12/1/2016 | 1.62% | 110,705 | 109,088 |
1/1/2017 | 1.57% | 113,406 | 111,832 |
2/1/2017 | 1.32% | 114,809 | 113,486 |
3/1/2017 | -5.09% | 112,930 | 118,024 |
4/1/2017 | -1.86% | 116,227 | 118,091 |
5/1/2017 | 1.11% | 120,403 | 119,296 |
6/1/2017 | -2.65% | 117,824 | 120,472 |
7/1/2017 | -2.40% | 119,144 | 121,545 |
8/1/2017 | -1.96% | 121,873 | 123,828 |
9/1/2017 | -6.09% | 117,879 | 123,973 |
Current | -2.56% | 124,448 | 127,007 |
I am trailing by 2.5 percentage points. But remember that my MFI Index since end of 2014 has lost over 20 percentage points versus benchmark. So that makes me feel a little better.
Here are the four tranches:
10/3/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
CPLA | $58.15 | $70.15 | $1.64 | 23.5% | 18.8% |
LDOS | $43.01 | $59.22 | $1.28 | 40.7% | 18.8% |
GME | $27.70 | $20.66 | $1.51 | -20.0% | 18.8% |
PBI | $18.15 | $14.01 | $0.75 | -18.7% | 18.8% |
CSCO | $31.72 | $33.63 | $1.10 | 9.5% | 18.8% |
Totals | 7.0% | 18.8% | |||
12/30/2016 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
GILD | $71.69 | $81.02 | $1.56 | 15.2% | 13.5% |
HPQ | $15.00 | $19.96 | $0.53 | 36.6% | 13.5% |
TGNA | $21.33 | $22.20 | $0.28 | 5.4% | 13.5% |
CA | $31.99 | $33.38 | $0.77 | 6.7% | 13.5% |
SYNT | $19.79 | $19.65 | $0.00 | -0.7% | 13.5% |
Totals | 12.6% | 13.5% | |||
4/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
BKE | $18.45 | $16.85 | $0.50 | -6.0% | 7.6% |
CSCO | $33.76 | $33.63 | $0.58 | 1.3% | 7.6% |
GILD | $67.50 | $81.02 | $1.04 | 21.6% | 7.6% |
OMC | $85.53 | $74.07 | $1.10 | -12.1% | 7.6% |
SYNT | $16.76 | $19.65 | $0.00 | 17.2% | 7.6% |
Totals | 4.4% | 7.6% | |||
7/1/2017 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
CSCO | $30.98 | $33.63 | $0.00 | 8.6% | 4.5% |
GME | $20.95 | $20.66 | $0.38 | 0.4% | 4.5% |
HPQ | $17.60 | $19.96 | $0.13 | 14.2% | 4.5% |
RGR | $60.70 | $51.70 | $0.23 | -14.4% | 4.5% |
SYNT | $16.21 | $19.65 | $0.00 | 21.2% | 4.5% |
Totals | 6.0% | 4.5% | |||
Category/Tranche | October | January | April | July | Total |
Initial Investment | 249,820 | 249,939 | 250,180 | 249,728 | 999,667 |
Current Tranche | 7.0% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% |
Previous Tranche | 5.5% | 9.3% | 25.2% | 26.7% | 16.1% |
Tranche -2 | 0.5% | 11.0% | -0.2% | -12.5% | -0.3% |
MFI Overall Gain | 13.4% | 36.6% | 30.4% | 17.5% | 24.5% |
Current Balance | 283,298 | 341,499 | 326,151 | 293,528 | 1,244,476 |
R3K Current Tranche | 18.8% | 13.5% | 7.6% | 4.5% | 11.1% |
R3K Overall Gain | 34.1% | 26.9% | 25.6% | 21.6% | 27.0% |
R3K Balance | 335,080 | 317,098 | 314,139 | 303,742 | 1,270,059 |
Annualized IRR | 4.3% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% |
Not great, but not horrible either. Here is how each stock did in past week:
Stock | Last Week | Current | Dividend | Change |
SYNT | 19.06 | 19.65 | - | 3.1% |
CSCO | 33.37 | 33.63 | - | 0.8% |
HPQ | 19.94 | 19.96 | - | 0.1% |
GILD | 83.27 | 81.02 | - | -2.7% |
GME | 20.01 | 20.66 | - | 3.2% |
CA | 32.68 | 33.38 | - | 2.1% |
TGNA | 21.60 | 22.20 | - | 2.8% |
OMC | 75.00 | 74.07 | - | -1.2% |
CPLA | 67.35 | 70.15 | - | 4.2% |
BKE | 15.95 | 16.85 | - | 5.6% |
RGR | 51.00 | 51.70 | - | 1.4% |
LDOS | 58.83 | 59.22 | - | 0.7% |
PBI | 13.58 | 14.01 | - | 3.2% |
SYNT is quietly becoming a very good pick.
Dividend and Misc Portfolios
While these are not "MFI", I do include a few words about my other legs of my investing table. My miscellaneous approach, which has struggled in 2017, had a nice pop this week - primarily as BYBK got bought at a 50% premium. This is a microcap bank that was frankly difficult to buy (I started accumulating in March). Of course now I wish I had bought more! I will hold through the merger as I do not want to pay ST CG taxes.
I had to laugh as 2 days after merger was announced, one of the robot news story writers wrote about BYBK (Is Bay Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:BYBK) Overbought?
First News 24-14 hours ago).
So hopefully my Misc portfolio starts to hum a bit more. I did have some biotech names (NVIV for example) that really hurt me earlier this year. My hurricane reconstruction plays, FIX and BLDR have been doing nicely. BAC warrants have popped 14% in September. Some of my more recent buys are in the Energy and Shipping spaces.
On the dividend side, I did some more adding this week. I added to TGONF, ISBC and SBRA. TGONF is just cheap, under $13 with NAV over $20 and a 5.5% yield.
ISBC is another regional bank (like BYBK), with a yield over 2%, P to BV of 1.40 and should benefit from yield curve boosts.
SBRA had a secondary offering that drove stock down about 6%. Seemed like a good time to add on the cheap.
Stock | Initial | Current | Div/Sh | Gain/Loss | Yield |
FDEU | 18.40 | 19.42 | 0.48 | 8.2% | 7.5% |
EVG | 14.46 | 14.24 | 0.10 | -0.8% | 6.4% |
PSXP | 47.39 | 52.56 | 0.38 | 11.7% | 4.7% |
KCLI | 49.31 | 49.75 | 0.22 | 1.3% | 2.4% |
LADR | 13.01 | 13.78 | 0.30 | 8.3% | 8.7% |
ISBC | 13.25 | 13.64 | 0.06 | 3.4% | 2.3% |
NS | 41.04 | 40.59 | - | -1.1% | 10.8% |
RLJ-PA | 28.45 | 27.82 | - | -2.2% | 7.0% |
JQC | 8.20 | 8.49 | 1.07 | 16.6% | 6.7% |
TK | 5.24 | 8.93 | 0.06 | 71.3% | 2.5% |
DSL | 19.47 | 21.25 | 1.35 | 16.1% | 8.5% |
OIBAX | 5.85 | 5.95 | 0.40 | 8.5% | 4.0% |
FSFR | 8.68 | 8.80 | 0.19 | 3.6% | 8.6% |
RILY | 15.58 | 17.05 | 0.13 | 10.3% | 1.5% |
SBRA | 23.13 | 21.94 | 0.52 | -2.9% | 6.6% |
TGONF | 11.04 | 12.80 | 1.61 | 30.6% | 5.5% |
VTIBX | 10.92 | 10.89 | 0.01 | -0.2% | 1.1% |
GLDI | 9.29 | 9.07 | 0.10 | -1.2% | 9.1% |
CPLP | 3.57 | 3.50 | - | -2.0% | 9.1% |
NRZ | 16.22 | 16.73 | 0.88 | 8.6% | 12.0% |
DHF | 3.34 | 3.53 | 0.12 | 9.1% | 8.0% |
BKE | 14.15 | 16.85 | - | 19.1% | 5.9% |
O | 25.26 | 57.19 | 20.74 | 208.5% | 4.4% |
Note these are listed in descending size. Over rest of year, I will likely look to increase stakes in smaller ones - but I am not really looking for new names.
Let me also share my dividend graph. This shows my growth in dividend income since 2010. It assumes I had $100,000 of annual dividend income in 2010 (I wish) and how it has grown. Part of growth is from reinvested dividends, but larger component is a greater focus on income as I retired.
Of my total net worth, I still am about 35% cash - so over time I will continue to grow this out.
Off to the Ocean State! Have a great weekend everybody.