Looking a Little Bit Better (all the Time)

I have to say that my portfolio move on 6/29 has really really worked out. Back then, I was down inception to date 11% while the Russell 3000 was down 15%. Now, about a month and a half latter I am down 5.7% and the Russell 3000 is down 14.5%. Even worse, I would be below the 11% mark as the stocks I sold are down since then 5.5% and the stocks I kept are up 1%. Recall that I sold about 65% of my portfolio. You may ask, "how have you moved from down 11% to down 5.7%?". The answer is that I have bought back in some and the stocks I have bought back into have had some spectacular moves

CCME +23%
UTA +26%
CEL +11%
CMFO +18%
BORN +10%

I have essentially gone with the barbell strategy, a group of "safer" stocks with good dividends (PM, CEL, CHKE, VALU, UNTD, RAI and TTT) and a group of riskier stocks such as CSKI, CEU, CCME, CMFO, BORN, NEWN, UTA and KSW. Then my other stocks are FLL, IPXL and CF. Still 30% in cash.

NEWN reports on Monday morning, I have had very good earnings so far on this group. I will bang the table on CCME, which is only not on the MFI list as they show earnings by 6 month intervals rather than quarterly. Here are some key points:

• They have already stated they expect to make over $80m this year.
• The second quarter has been pre-announced around 25-27m.
• Note that annualizes much higher than $80.
• They have good earnings visibility as they have many long term (5 year) contracts.

They are audited by Deloitte (so people who bash questionable financials can't say anything). Starr International (owned mainly by Hank Greenberg, formerly of AIG and who is intimately knowledge of all things China) invested a chunk of money.

Finally, their market cap is 382m and they have 114m of cash with no debt.

Consider the table pounded.

Continued Good News from the Eastern (Far) Front

Post the positive earnings I commented on yesterday from CSKI and CMFO (which were both up nicely on an otherwise crummy day) I had solid earnings this evening from CEU and UTA. CEU is up 3% after hours. Then UTA is up 4% after hours.

Also, some very interesting news on NEWN (I forget to mention them yesterday in my listing of MFO-Chinese stocks). They were up sharply the last couple hours of the day, about 6%. I tried to figure out why they were up. I think they may have filed to be listed on the Amex (they are ob right now). If they do, that could cErtainly be a catalyst for the stock to move towards $10 (they are $6.80 right now)

Good News?

well, two of my Chinese MFI stocks reported this evening after the bell. This will begin a flood as they all seem to report within two weeks of each other. Both appear to have good numbers:

CMFO: (China Marine Reports Record Second Quarter Revenues of $27.6 million and Adjusted EPS of $0.28). They are up 6% after the bell. Still very cheap, if you think of a $142m company with 40m of cash making 28 cents a share and trading at $5.30. Remember, their CEO put about $1m of his own $ into the stock back in July when it dropped to about $4.00.

CSKI: (CHINA SKY ONE MEDICAL, INC. Files SEC form 10-Q, Quarterly Report) - I glanced through the report, they made 73 cents a share, year over year quarterly revenues were up from 32m to 40m. Again, so-so cheap... 176m market cap with $64m of cash and 73 cents of quarterly earnings and a share price around $11. They are up about 9% after hours.

In non Chinsese news, KSW also reported solid earnings today, 11 cents (KSW Reports Second Quarter Results). They were up 3.8%. KSW has a meager 19m market cap, 15m of cash and made 11 cents per share, trading a bit north of $3.

Hopefully this is a harbinger of my other companies (UTA, NEWN, CEU and CCME). Tempts me to buy CHOP.

August 6 2010 New Stocks to Screen

For those of you playing at home, here are the new stocks to my mechanical screens:

Top 30 Screen: IPXL and SUPG
Top 50 screen: CJJD and FSYS

Not sure I'll be a buyer on any of these (I do own IPXL already). FSYS looks intriguing and I do like IPXL. Here is how the mechanical top 30 (open positions) is faring. Been tough sledding of late:

Symbol		Original	Current	Dividend	S&P O	S&P D	Stock Chg	S&P Chg	Diff
BKE	8/14/09	26.54	26.23	2.60	100.79	3.69	8.6%	15.2%	-6.5%
GTLS	8/14/09	20.73	17.24	-	100.79	3.69	-16.8%	15.2%	-32.0%
PRIM	8/14/09	6.95	7.06	0.08	100.79	3.69	2.7%	15.2%	-12.5%
SEPR	8/14/09	18.12	23.00	-	100.79	3.69	26.9%	15.2%	11.8%
PVSW	8/14/09	5.00	4.84	-	100.79	3.69	-3.2%	15.2%	-18.4%
CEU	8/21/09	5.10	4.05	-	102.96	3.69	-20.6%	12.7%	-33.3%
cytk	8/28/09	3.04	2.26	-	103.38	3.69	-25.7%	12.3%	-37.9%
jcom	8/28/09	22.14	24.25	-	103.38	3.69	9.5%	12.3%	-2.8%
AMED	9/4/09	35.00	26.79	-	102.06	3.69	-23.5%	13.7%	-37.2%
MIPS	9/18/09	3.72	6.49	-	106.72	3.69	74.5%	8.8%	65.7%
MHP	9/25/09	23.67	30.58	0.46	104.45	1.60	31.1%	9.1%	22.0%
AGX	10/16/09	12.50	8.50	-	108.89	1.60	-32.0%	4.7%	-36.7%
BBND	10/30/09	3.70	2.91	-	103.56	1.60	-21.4%	10.1%	-31.4%
FLR	10/30/09	44.42	48.75	-	103.56	1.60	9.7%	10.1%	-0.3%
RGR	10/30/09	10.62	14.35	0.28	103.56	1.60	37.7%	10.1%	27.7%
RTN	10/30/09	45.28	46.14	0.69	103.56	1.60	3.4%	10.1%	-6.7%
VRSK	10/30/09	27.43	28.50	-	103.56	1.60	3.9%	10.1%	-6.2%
immu	11/6/09	3.61	3.18	-	107.13	1.60	-11.9%	6.4%	-18.3%
cbst	11/6/09	17.60	22.62	-	107.13	1.60	28.5%	6.4%	22.1%
snta	11/6/09	3.20	3.03	-	107.13	1.60	-5.3%	6.4%	-11.7%
CNU	11/13/09	3.10	3.60	-	109.62	1.60	16.1%	4.0%	12.1%
IDCC	11/20/09	23.56	26.90	-	109.43	1.60	14.2%	4.2%	10.0%
PDLI	11/27/09	6.63	6.43	0.50	109.57	1.60	4.5%	4.0%	0.5%
ARO	12/4/09	28.95	37.29	-	111.01	1.60	28.8%	2.7%	26.1%
CBPO	12/4/09	9.06	12.81	-	111.01	1.60	41.4%	2.7%	38.7%
VALV	12/31/09	5.15	7.95	-	111.44	1.01	54.4%	1.8%	52.6%
SMED	2/5/10	6.74	5.32	-	106.66	1.01	-21.1%	6.3%	-27.4%
SPMD	2/5/10	36.63	17.91	-	106.66	1.01	-51.1%	6.3%	-57.4%
XOMA	2/5/10	0.42	0.29	-	106.66	1.01	-30.8%	6.3%	-37.1%
MGIC	2/19/10	1.77	2.70	-	111.14	1.01	52.5%	2.0%	50.5%
UIS	2/26/10	34.91	24.82	-	110.74	1.01	-28.9%	2.4%	-31.3%
SNTS	3/5/10	4.87	2.47	-	114.25	1.01	-49.3%	-0.7%	-48.5%
PRSC	3/12/10	14.18	14.89	-	115.46	1.01	5.0%	-1.8%	6.8%
WTW	3/19/10	25.20	29.23	-	115.97	0.53	16.0%	-2.6%	18.6%
QDEL	3/25/10	13.73	12.82	-	116.58	0.53	-6.6%	-3.1%	-3.5%
BDSI	4/16/10	4.12	2.40	-	119.36	0.53	-41.7%	-5.4%	-36.4%
ABC	4/23/10	31.13	30.24	-	121.81	0.53	-2.9%	-7.3%	4.4%
APOL	4/30/10	57.41	42.49	-	118.81	0.53	-26.0%	-5.0%	-21.0%
SVA	4/30/10	5.79	4.25	-	118.81	0.53	-26.6%	-5.0%	-21.6%
OSK	4/30/10	38.62	30.48	-	118.81	0.53	-21.1%	-5.0%	-16.1%
VPHM	5/7/10	12.06	13.20	-	111.26	0.53	9.5%	1.5%	8.0%
CHOP	5/14/10	6.54	5.56	-	113.89	0.53	-15.0%	-0.8%	-14.1%
MRX	5/21/10	22.50	27.69	-	107.71	0.53	23.1%	4.8%	18.2%
CRXX	6/4/10	1.53	1.52	-	106.82	0.53	-0.7%	5.7%	-6.4%
TNAV	6/4/10	8.53	5.00	-	106.82	0.53	-41.4%	5.7%	-47.1%
JGBO	6/11/10	8.45	9.35	-	109.68	0.53	10.7%	3.0%	7.7%
VALU	6/11/10	17.84	15.41	-	109.68	0.53	-13.6%	3.0%	-16.6%
DRWI	7/16/10	5.23	6.00	-	106.66	-	14.7%	5.4%	9.3%
DJCO	7/30/10	79.63	70.00	-	112.46	-	-12.1%	-0.1%	-12.0%
SCEI	7/30/10	5.35	6.00	-	112.46	-	12.1%	-0.1%	12.2%
SNDK	7/30/10	45.27	45.14	-	112.46	-	-0.3%	-0.1%	-0.2%
IPXL	8/6/10	17.00	17.00	-	112.39	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
SUPG	8/6/10	1.99	1.99	-	112.39	-	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
						Totals	18.0%	6.4%	11.6%
53.9% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark						Closed	27.8%	7.3%	20.6%
S&P C			112.39			Open	-0.2%	4.8%	-5.0%

One Month (plus) later

Selling over 50% of my portfolio has still proven to be the right move (June 28th) despite the relatively bullish market since. The stocks I sold are down 2.2%, the stocks I kept are up .7%. Then the few stocks I bought post 6/28 with the proceeds are up about 9%. I am still skittish and about 45% in cash.

Did get earnings on a number of my stocks.

UNTD - they were disappointing and dropped about 15% in a single day. People are still buying flowers, but Classmates.Com is floundering and the dial-up service seems to be dying.

IPXL dropped 3%, but has since gotten it back. I think their temporary gains from being 1st to market are finished, but it really strengthened their balance sheet. I still see them as a buyout target.

CF - had so-so earnings, but with the drought in Russia these ag plays are starting to look better. I actually doubled my holdings this week as I expect the acquisition of TRA to start paying off.

PRSC - they announced their earnings (They were one I re-bought post my sell-off) and as I anticipated they were quite good. I am generally very worried about any stocks that rely heavily on govt money/rules right now given the Obama administration and the general state of the fiscal balance sheet. I think that has underpinned the drops in stocks like AMED, COCO, APOL, ESI, RTN etc. PRSC is more reliant at the state level, but I may take some $ off the table as well.

Finally, not sure what to do about TTT, which has been a weird stock. They split into TTT and KHD a few months ago and I have received additional stock dividends. Now they have a rights offering which allows me to buy 25% more shares of TTT at $6.60 between now and September 2nd. I suppose I'd be stupid not to do it as the stock currently trades at $8.17... though I expect the price to drop due to the dilution.

I think that is it. Have a good weekend. I am off on holiday starting next week.