Well, certainly the good news is that my MFI portfolio is up an impressive 33% since my all-time low set on November 20th. That is certainly a decent "Santa Claus" rally. The bad news is that I would probably need another 3 consecutive months like that to make my feet start smiling again. Oh well, I don't suppose Rome was built in a day, at least things are starting to go in the right direction. I have been adding a few positions lately, here is my current portfolio along with some thoughts about each stock, a few are not "on the list", but I am considering to be value stocks that fit the spirit of MFI.
HBMFF - I bought Hudbay in February and it has been an unmitigated disaster. Down 87% as Zinc prices collapsed and Hudbay bought Lundin mining, a move the market didn't like. Hard to sell at this point, I'll decide what to do in February.
IAR (now IDAR) - Obviously a dog of dogs, another unmitigated disaster, down 98%... I had my share in 2008, which I will be glad to bid adieu.
CHCG - wow, I had some stinkers, down 62%. However, I think these guys have some upside. They are a Chinese retailer and trade at 68 cents despite earning 45 cents per share in past 4 quarters. As they sell in China, they are not subject (in my view) to export risks (at least directly) as the economy slows.
BID - Sotherbys was another bad stock, down 69% for me. I thought being part of a duo-opoly would protect them a bit during the downturn as their stock had already dropped 50%, but I was clearly wrong. Not on any lists right now, I may sell this Spring.
FTO - hey a winner, down only 54%! The refiners have gotten crushed. FTO seems like the best run of the independents. I will likely continue to hold. The lower price of oil has to help a bit.
VALU - this sleepy stock has been one of my best. Basically flat since May, they recently had decent earnings and bumped their dividend.
QXM - This Chinese phone manufacturer, that sells primarily in China has a ton of cash. I show them with 435m and 423m of shareholder equity. With a market cap of 105m, they are trading at 30% of book value! They have made $1.62 per share in past 12 months and trading at just $2.25.
CAST - another of my Chinese/MFI stocks. They are struggling as well. They are into education, both brick & mortar as well as onlne. They are dirt cheap and have a strong balance sheet. But until the markets unfreeze, these speculative smaller cap stocks really do not have a catalyst.
BR - a spin-off from ADP, down 36% since I bought them. They actually expect 2009 fiscal year to be better than 2008. Not many people are saying that.
BOLT - not been a good time for oil service companies, BOLT is down 63% since I bought them. Not sure what to do here.
KHD - a Hong Kong based supplier of construction materials. They also have a ton of cash and backlogs, but the market is clearly discounting what they have.
PCR - US based construction firm that has risen pretty sharply of late as people feel they may get involved in Obama spending. They were $12.50 in November and are now almost $23.
CSKI - a Chinese pharma company that is really moving on up lately. Like PCR. they have almost doubled since mid-November. They have great growth opportunities, nice pipeline of drugs and solid balance sheet.
KBR - has really battled back, like PCR. Solid balance sheet and project backlog.
TRA - I rebought Terra Industries, which was really beaten down on the theory that Obama would be helping the farmers given his Illinois roots and the help he got from Iowa. Hasn't worked yet.
TC - not a true MFI stock, but a Jubak stock. Great balance sheet and if the commodity prices move up at all, they could quickly double.
BBSI - been an MFI stock forever. Tough industry, but well run company.
LINE - I bought this oil & gas company a coupe weeks ago when Seth Klarman bought them around $18 (I bought at $12.50). They got a great feature article in Barron's this week, so I'll be interested to see if that spurs interest in them.
GSK and PFE - last week I bought a basket of pharma stocks. I was looking for stability of earnings and nice dividends (5.3% and 7.5%).
SCMP - my other pharma stock, this has recently been in top 25 list. I bought them at a great price and they are already up 27%.
FLS - I bought Flowserve last week at $47. Jubak had recommended them as one of his best ideas for 2009 and they were on the "list". Seemed like a good combo.
Well, that pretty much sums up the Good, the Bad and the Ugly. Speaking of ugly, I am watching the Cowboys/Eagles game right now... pretty ugly.
Happy New Year.
Sunday, December 28, 2008
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Update and Chat
First a quick update on several of my model portfolios
1. I started a Chinese Portfolio right after China announced their stimulus package (more than a month ago). While it certainly has not been "good", down 16%, it is "better" than having put your money in the Russell 3000, down 30% in the same stretch. 4 of the Chinese stocks are up nicely: ADY (a baby formula manufacturer that was unfairly tainted in recent recalls), TBV (a MFI stock), CSKI (an MFI stock that I own) and XIN (a real estate company I am considering buying).
2. My mechanical portfolio that I am running as a contest against Steve Alexander of Magic Diligence is beating the S&P 500 by 1.2 points (SDA is "winning" by 2.4 points. The interesting thing about my portfolio is that the 7 additions since Nov 21st are up ON AVERAGE by 32%! So there does seem to be some momentum.
Finally I will mention that although my actual real life portfolio is still generally "sucking eggs" (a financial term) I have been gaining pretty significant ground of late on the bench mark portfolios and I am up over 30% off my lows. Stay tuned... maybe someday I'll actually post a chart/table again.
I am continuing to try to dial down the riskiness of my portfolio as I still want to retire. I bought LINE this week after seeing Stock Market guru Seth Klarman bought it. What is interesting about LINE is that they are an Oil & Gas play and have been thrown out with the proverbial bathwater as oil prices have crashed in the past six month but... read this from their earnings release:
At current production levels, the Company is 100% hedged for 2009, 2010 and 2011. For 2009, the Company's natural gas production is hedged at a weighted average price of $8.32 per Mcf and oil and NGL production at $102.21 per barrel. For 2010, the Company's natural gas production is hedged at a weighted average price of $8.05 per Mcf and oil and NGL production at $99.68 per barrel. The Company's natural gas production is hedged for the next four years and oil and NGL production is hedged for the next six years. These hedge positions help ensure cash flow and are detailed in Schedule 9 in this press release.
So they have locked in high oil and natural gas prices for at least the next 2 years! Why are they down 50% off their highs? They pay a high dividend and are the only Oil & Gas firm I can find that projects making more money in 2009 than 2008. SK owns about 8% of the company, so I am comfortable that he has done gthe homework that the balance sheet isn't too levered. And he was buying at $16-$19 while I got in under $13.
The final move on my portfolio (not MFI) is that I am moving some funds to follow "the moose". This was an interesting website pointed out by Randy on the MFI yahoo boards (Moosecalls).
1. I started a Chinese Portfolio right after China announced their stimulus package (more than a month ago). While it certainly has not been "good", down 16%, it is "better" than having put your money in the Russell 3000, down 30% in the same stretch. 4 of the Chinese stocks are up nicely: ADY (a baby formula manufacturer that was unfairly tainted in recent recalls), TBV (a MFI stock), CSKI (an MFI stock that I own) and XIN (a real estate company I am considering buying).
2. My mechanical portfolio that I am running as a contest against Steve Alexander of Magic Diligence is beating the S&P 500 by 1.2 points (SDA is "winning" by 2.4 points. The interesting thing about my portfolio is that the 7 additions since Nov 21st are up ON AVERAGE by 32%! So there does seem to be some momentum.
| Symbol | Date | Original | Current | Dividend | S&P O | S&P D | Stock Chg | S&P Chg | Diff |
| DTPI | 2/2/08 | 4.75 | 3.97 | 0.35 | 139.58 | 2.00 | -9.1% | -34.8% | 25.8% |
| AIRV | 2/13/08 | 5.08 | 5.00 | - | 136.37 | 2.00 | -1.6% | -33.3% | 31.7% |
| CITP | 2/16/08 | 9.98 | 2.14 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -78.6% | -32.7% | -45.9% |
| PRXI | 2/16/08 | 4.29 | 1.50 | - | 135.14 | 2.00 | -65.0% | -32.7% | -32.4% |
| CAST | 2/23/08 | 5.06 | 2.25 | - | 135.62 | 2.00 | -55.5% | -32.9% | -22.6% |
| GSB | 3/12/08 | 2.08 | 0.95 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -54.3% | -30.7% | -23.6% |
| IGC | 3/12/08 | 3.70 | 1.03 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -72.2% | -30.7% | -41.4% |
| LGTY | 3/12/08 | 6.70 | 4.28 | - | 131.36 | 2.00 | -36.1% | -30.7% | -5.4% |
| MRX | 3/12/08 | 19.45 | 13.84 | 0.08 | 131.36 | 1.36 | -28.4% | -31.2% | 2.8% |
| DEPO | 3/22/08 | 2.74 | 1.58 | - | 132.08 | 1.36 | -42.3% | -31.6% | -10.7% |
| NVTL | 3/22/08 | 8.98 | 3.11 | - | 132.08 | 1.36 | -65.4% | -31.6% | -33.8% |
| VRGY | 3/22/08 | 17.42 | 10.40 | - | 132.08 | 1.36 | -40.3% | -31.6% | -8.7% |
| DLX | 4/6/08 | 19.58 | 11.57 | 0.75 | 136.89 | 1.36 | -37.1% | -34.0% | -3.1% |
| NTRI | 4/6/08 | 14.94 | 13.23 | 0.54 | 136.89 | 1.36 | -7.8% | -34.0% | 26.2% |
| IUSA | 4/6/08 | 5.28 | 3.41 | - | 136.89 | 1.36 | -35.4% | -34.0% | -1.4% |
| LRCX | 4/11/08 | 41.08 | 23.02 | - | 133.38 | 1.36 | -44.0% | -32.3% | -11.7% |
| SLXP | 4/11/08 | 6.47 | 7.53 | - | 133.38 | 1.36 | 16.4% | -32.3% | 48.6% |
| CHRD | 4/19/08 | 5.03 | 2.45 | - | 138.48 | 1.36 | -51.3% | -34.8% | -16.5% |
| QXM | 4/26/08 | 6.26 | 2.83 | - | 139.60 | 1.36 | -54.8% | -35.3% | -19.5% |
| MDP | 5/9/08 | 33.79 | 15.80 | 0.65 | 138.90 | 1.36 | -51.3% | -35.0% | -16.4% |
| OMPI | 5/9/08 | 7.11 | 7.04 | - | 138.90 | 1.36 | -1.0% | -35.0% | 34.0% |
| PPD | 5/9/08 | 43.45 | 39.71 | - | 138.90 | 1.36 | -8.6% | -35.0% | 26.3% |
| ELNK | 5/25/08 | 9.21 | 6.66 | - | 137.64 | 1.36 | -27.7% | -34.4% | 6.7% |
| FTAR.ob | 5/25/08 | 4.37 | 3.05 | - | 137.64 | 1.36 | -30.2% | -34.4% | 4.2% |
| CHKE | 5/31/08 | 27.25 | 16.40 | 1.00 | 140.35 | 1.36 | -36.1% | -35.6% | -0.5% |
| APKT | 7/5/08 | 4.62 | 3.20 | - | 126.31 | 0.69 | -30.7% | -29.0% | -1.7% |
| CSKI | 7/5/08 | 11.06 | 13.14 | - | 126.31 | 0.69 | 18.8% | -29.0% | 47.8% |
| VALU | 7/5/08 | 32.00 | 35.50 | 0.80 | 126.31 | 0.69 | 13.4% | -29.0% | 42.4% |
| QCOR | 7/26/08 | 4.84 | 8.00 | - | 125.48 | 0.69 | 65.3% | -28.5% | 93.8% |
| MSTR | 8/1/08 | 60.56 | 33.19 | - | 126.16 | 0.69 | -45.2% | -28.9% | -16.3% |
| NVDA | 8/8/08 | 11.00 | 8.60 | - | 129.37 | 0.69 | -21.8% | -30.7% | 8.9% |
| SWIR | 8/8/08 | 12.41 | 5.44 | - | 129.37 | 0.69 | -56.2% | -30.7% | -25.5% |
| CF | 8/8/08 | 134.65 | 49.13 | - | 129.37 | 0.69 | -63.5% | -30.7% | -32.8% |
| SIGM | 8/8/08 | 15.93 | 9.15 | - | 129.37 | 0.69 | -42.6% | -30.7% | -11.9% |
| EGMI.OB | 9/5/08 | 0.69 | 0.36 | - | 124.42 | 0.69 | -47.8% | -27.9% | -19.9% |
| KHD | 9/15/08 | 20.68 | 9.63 | - | 126.09 | 0.69 | -53.4% | -28.9% | -24.6% |
| TTWO | 9/22/08 | 16.57 | 12.35 | - | 124.12 | 0.69 | -25.5% | -27.7% | 2.3% |
| SCMP | 9/29/08 | 8.29 | 3.20 | - | 120.85 | - | -61.4% | -26.4% | -35.0% |
| DTLK | 9/29/08 | 4.34 | 2.77 | - | 120.85 | - | -36.2% | -26.4% | -9.8% |
| TRA | 9/29/08 | 28.42 | 15.42 | - | 120.85 | - | -45.7% | -26.4% | -19.4% |
| MSB | 10/10/08 | 11.37 | 9.70 | 1.25 | 88.50 | - | -3.7% | 0.6% | -4.2% |
| UEPS | 10/10/08 | 14.58 | 11.35 | - | 88.50 | - | -22.2% | 0.6% | -22.7% |
| TSCM | 10/17/08 | 3.67 | 3.39 | - | 93.21 | - | -7.6% | -4.5% | -3.1% |
| EME | 10/31/08 | 17.77 | 21.10 | - | 96.83 | - | 18.7% | -8.1% | 26.8% |
| CTCM | 10/31/08 | 7.40 | 4.69 | - | 96.83 | - | -36.6% | -8.1% | -28.5% |
| PRGX | 10/31/08 | 4.24 | 3.50 | - | 96.83 | - | -17.5% | -8.1% | -9.4% |
| HLF | 11/7/08 | 20.17 | 17.27 | - | 93.86 | - | -14.4% | -5.2% | -9.2% |
| GHM | 11/7/08 | 13.60 | 9.84 | - | 93.86 | - | -27.6% | -5.2% | -22.5% |
| BIDZ | 11/21/08 | 2.39 | 5.03 | - | 79.52 | - | 110.5% | 11.9% | 98.6% |
| KBR | 11/21/08 | 10.45 | 15.31 | - | 79.52 | - | 46.5% | 11.9% | 34.6% |
| OPTV | 11/21/08 | 0.94 | 1.27 | - | 79.52 | - | 35.1% | 11.9% | 23.2% |
| IBAS | 11/21/08 | 1.21 | 1.44 | - | 79.52 | - | 19.0% | 11.9% | 7.1% |
| VCLK | 11/28/08 | 6.17 | 7.15 | - | 90.09 | - | 15.9% | -1.2% | 17.1% |
| DIVX | 12/7/08 | 4.37 | 5.01 | - | 87.93 | - | 14.6% | 1.2% | 13.4% |
| MAXY | 12/7/08 | 5.80 | 7.82 | - | 87.93 | - | 34.8% | 1.2% | 33.6% |
| Totals | -21.5% | -22.7% | 1.2% | ||||||
| 44.% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark | |||||||||
Finally I will mention that although my actual real life portfolio is still generally "sucking eggs" (a financial term) I have been gaining pretty significant ground of late on the bench mark portfolios and I am up over 30% off my lows. Stay tuned... maybe someday I'll actually post a chart/table again.
I am continuing to try to dial down the riskiness of my portfolio as I still want to retire. I bought LINE this week after seeing Stock Market guru Seth Klarman bought it. What is interesting about LINE is that they are an Oil & Gas play and have been thrown out with the proverbial bathwater as oil prices have crashed in the past six month but... read this from their earnings release:
At current production levels, the Company is 100% hedged for 2009, 2010 and 2011. For 2009, the Company's natural gas production is hedged at a weighted average price of $8.32 per Mcf and oil and NGL production at $102.21 per barrel. For 2010, the Company's natural gas production is hedged at a weighted average price of $8.05 per Mcf and oil and NGL production at $99.68 per barrel. The Company's natural gas production is hedged for the next four years and oil and NGL production is hedged for the next six years. These hedge positions help ensure cash flow and are detailed in Schedule 9 in this press release.
So they have locked in high oil and natural gas prices for at least the next 2 years! Why are they down 50% off their highs? They pay a high dividend and are the only Oil & Gas firm I can find that projects making more money in 2009 than 2008. SK owns about 8% of the company, so I am comfortable that he has done gthe homework that the balance sheet isn't too levered. And he was buying at $16-$19 while I got in under $13.
The final move on my portfolio (not MFI) is that I am moving some funds to follow "the moose". This was an interesting website pointed out by Randy on the MFI yahoo boards (Moosecalls).
Saturday, December 06, 2008
Stepping Back
Well, here is the ultimate bull signal... I am pulling back a bit. I have sold several stocks and have not re-invested the funds. Actually had a couple with very good gains (VR and EGY) and one not so good (PRLS).
I guess I feel we're still in a simple bear market rally and that there will be more blood on the streets at least through January with more forced hedge fund selling. Also, I am kicking around the idea of buying a house in the Spring and wanted to pull some $ out for a downpayment. Might as well buy something tangible.
It was interesting that the market went up on Friday despite the dismal jobs number. I suppose some people are becoming convinced that between the lower gas prices and govt stimulus that things will turn around more quickly. But I am not so sure.
My thesis that the Chinese stocks will hold up better is bearing some fruit. They had gone down a lot, they have stronger balance sheets and China is still growing at 7%+. The group of 12 Chinese stocks I began following in the fall are down 17%, while the Russell 3000 is down 31% in the same stretch.
One signal I may begin watching on when to get fully invested is (Decision Moose). It was mentioned on the Yahoo groups site and has had a tremendous record in timing the market. Obviously I am not doing a very good job on my own.
I did think it was extremely positive this week when JNJ announced they were buying Mentor at a 100% premium. If these S&P 500 firms begin to loosen up on the purse strings and go shopping amongst the sales in the Russell 3000, it could really provide a much-needed lift.
I guess I feel we're still in a simple bear market rally and that there will be more blood on the streets at least through January with more forced hedge fund selling. Also, I am kicking around the idea of buying a house in the Spring and wanted to pull some $ out for a downpayment. Might as well buy something tangible.
It was interesting that the market went up on Friday despite the dismal jobs number. I suppose some people are becoming convinced that between the lower gas prices and govt stimulus that things will turn around more quickly. But I am not so sure.
My thesis that the Chinese stocks will hold up better is bearing some fruit. They had gone down a lot, they have stronger balance sheets and China is still growing at 7%+. The group of 12 Chinese stocks I began following in the fall are down 17%, while the Russell 3000 is down 31% in the same stretch.
One signal I may begin watching on when to get fully invested is (Decision Moose). It was mentioned on the Yahoo groups site and has had a tremendous record in timing the market. Obviously I am not doing a very good job on my own.
I did think it was extremely positive this week when JNJ announced they were buying Mentor at a 100% premium. If these S&P 500 firms begin to loosen up on the purse strings and go shopping amongst the sales in the Russell 3000, it could really provide a much-needed lift.
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